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One Hundred Years of 'Disasterology'
Looking Back and Moving Forward
David Alexander
University College London
Rev. Dr
Samuel Henry Prince
1885-1960
Nova Scotia,
Columbia University
'Disasterology'
starts here
• the start of an academic field?
• S.H. Prince set the ball rolling
• human ecology of extreme events
and situations began around then
• a symbolic 'big bang'.
Why the Halifax explosion is
important to 'disasterology'
• much progress has been made
in understanding disasters
• massive increase in
interest and participation
• do we have a well-defined body of
information/research/knowledge?
• from one journal to c. 84 (or 600).
One hundred years of disasterology
6 Dec. 1917 - 6 Dec. 2017
• mainstreamed? [IPCC, etc.]
• legitimacy?
• position in the sciences
• position in society (private sector,
public administration, ordinary life)
• sufficiently professional?.
From a field to a discipline
(which it isn't yet)
Do we have
theory?
Theory, if it is any good,
• explains
• connects
• validates
• qualifies
• makes more
efficient.
Practitioners
Emergency services
Emergency management
agencies
Volunteer NGOs
Researchers
Academics
Consultants
Users
The general public
Businesses
Three
constituencies
Academic
knowledge
producer
Simple phenomenon
Complex analysis
Beneficiary
(knowledge
user)
barrier of
technical
complexity
Unsatisfactory
outcome
BUT...
HAZARD,
RISK &
DISASTER
STUDIES
SEVEN SCHOOLS
OF THOUGHT
Criminal justice
and forensic
science
and perhaps
an eighth...
Sociology
Psychology
& psychiatry
Economic &
financial studies
Development
studies
Disaster medicine
& epidemiology
Physical &
construction
sciences
Geography &
anthropology:
cultural (human)
anthropology
The theory producers...
Ecology
Geology
(& Geomorphology)
Geophysics
(inc. Seismology)
Volcanology
Climatology
Hydraulics
Hydrology
Meteorology
Architecture
Civil engineering
Geotechnical engineering
Structural engineering
Mechanical &
electrical engineeringInformation &
communication
technology (ICT)
Computer technology
Remote sensing
Risk analysis (inc.
risk identification,
estimation,
management &
communication)
Cartography
Development studies
Economics
Geography, History
Jurisprudence & legal stds
Urban & regional planning
Mass media studies
Psychology
Sociology
Epidemiology
Nursing
Nutrition
Pharmacology
General medicine
Surgery &
emergency medicine
Public health, hygiene
& epidemiology
Veterinary sciences
Health sciences
Social & spatial sciences
Computational
& analytical
sciences
Construction sciences
Atmospheric & water sciences
Earth & environmental sciences
HAZARD,
RISK &
DISASTER
CONSTITUENT
DISCIPLINES
'Disasterology':
diverse,
transverse,
but fragmented.
• to the management of incidents,
emergencies, disasters and crises
• to emergency and crisis planning
• to urban and regional planning
[weak connection - is it our fault?]
• to the evolution of society (inc. CCA)
• to climate change, sustainability,
wealth differentials - i.e. vulnerability.
Connections
• a search for meaning
• disaster risk creation
• cultural constraints and opportunities
• an existential viewpoint.
How do
disasters work,
what do
they mean?
• science provides an evidence
base: politicians do not use it
• progress can go into reverse with
funding cuts or political changes
• ideology more important than rationality?
• people take risks and do not mitigate
• official views of DRR & human motivation
are hopelessly divergent from reality.
A search for meaning
Disaster Risk Reduction
or disaster risk creation?
Disaster
Risk
Reduction
Culture
Economics
Access to
knowledge
Theweight
ofhistory
CONSTRAINTS
Risk
amplification
factors
Risk
mitigation
factors
Total
vulnerability
Risk perception
factors- +positivenegative
DIALECTIC
Vulnerability
Total: life is
generally precarious
Economic: people lack
adequate occupation
Technological/technocratic: due
to the riskiness of technology
Delinquent: caused by
corruption, negligence, etc.
Residual: caused by
lack of modernisation
Newly generated: caused by
changes in circumstances
• corruption
• political decision-making
• shoddy building (often wilful)
• ignorance (sometimes wilful)
• seismicity.
What causes earthquake disasters?
- in probable order of importance -
What is resilience?
Paradigm (n.): A conceptual or
methodological model underlying the
theories and practices of a science
or discipline at a particular time;
(hence) a generally accepted world view.
• an objective, a process or a strategy?
• a paradigm, diverse paradigms?
• 'bounce-back' or 'bounce-forward'?
• focuses on the community scale?
• can reconcile dynamic & static elements?
Resilience
Many definitions:
are we asking too much of resilience?
RESILIENCE:
as a material has brittle
strength and ductility:
so must society have
an optimum combination
of resistance to
hazard impacts and
ability to adapt to them.
The "cradle"
of resilience:
Canonbury Tower
London N1.
Built in 1509
to survive the
Universal Deluge:
inhabited in 1625
by Francis Bacon.
Francis Bacon
Sylva Sylvarum, 1625
Basic concepts:
hazard, vulnerability,
exposure, risk,
impact, resilience, etc.
Hazard
analysis
Technical skills:
telecomminications
computer, GIS, etc.
Emergency
planning
Emergency
management
Disaster
sociology and
psychology
Public information
management
Recovery and
reconstruction
planning
Methods of
risk mitigation
Field
exercises
Disaster and emergency
management training
• the definitional morass,
minefield, swamp, quicksand
• what do you need to know to be
a disasterologist? (who knows?)
• field has highly varied aims & objectives
• we teach a wide variety of groups
• how to create the professional figure?.
Pedagogical problems of 'disasterology'
• a well-defined body of readings
• a set of core topics (vulnerability,
exposure, resilience, etc.)
• a teaching methodology (scenarios?)
• a consensus on basic knowledge.
How to define our curriculum
We need:-
Recognition and
an institutional
role for the
professional figure
Certification
of competence
Training
programmes
Emerging
professional
figure
Policies and
legislation
Research Experience
Organi-
sation
Value
system
Family
culture
Work
culture
Peer
group
culture
Personal
culture
National culture
Regional culture
Etic
elements
of culture
Emic
elements
of
culture
Area
of cultural
interpenetration
BENIGN (healthy)
at the service of the people
MALIGN (corrupt)
at the service of vested interests
interplay dialectic
Justification Development
[spiritual, cultural, political, economic]
IDEOLOGY CULTURE
RISKS
daily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.
major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc.
emerging risks: pandemics, climate change
SUSTAINABILITY
disaster risk reduction
resource consumption
stewardship of the environment
economic activities
lifestyles and communities
SUSTAINABILITY
THE PILLARS OF MODERN LIFE
idealism
principle
belief
faith
fanaticism
ultranationalism
authoritarianism
backlash
virtue
charity
service
defence of principles
unscrupulousness
corruption
opportunism
censure
capital availability
wealth diffusion
financial security
financial repression
debt burden
consumerism
ingegnuity
pragmatism
technological progress
crass materialism
galloping consumption
pollution and waste
technological hegemony
Ideocentrism
Morality
Luchrocentrism
Technocentrism
SPIRITFLESH
PHILOSOPHICALMECHANISTIC
Positive Negative
...culturally conditioned.
Ideocentrism
+ ideal: effective disaster mitigation
- fanaticism: politicization of humanitarian relief
Morality
+ virtue: untiring application of mitigation measures
- corruption: failure to observe building codes
Luchrocentrism
+ financial security: monetary reserves vs. disaster
- financial repression: poverty --> vulnerability
Technocentrism
+ ingenuity: new hazard monitoring systems
- technological hegemony: unfair distribution of
mitigation benefits
HUMAN
CONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER
“ORTHODOX” MODEL
PHYSICAL
EVENT
HUMAN
VULNERABILITY
“RADICAL CRITIQUE” (K. HEWITT et al.)
HUMAN
CONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER
HUMAN
VULNERABILITY
PHYSICAL
EVENT
WHAT WE NEED NOW (21st Century)
HUMAN
CONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER
HUMAN
VULNERABILITY
CULTURE HISTORY
PHYSICAL
EVENTS
CONTEXT & CONSEQUENCES
C
E
E
E
E
C
E/C
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E/C
(a)
(b) C – cause
E - effect
Escalation
points
The rise of the
cascading disaster
Source: Pescaroli and Alexander, in press
We must learn
to live with complexity.
Not only that, but we
also have to model it.
Conclusion: on
the shoulders
of giants
Learning
processes
Improved
safety
Lesson
learned
Change and
innovation
Experience
and theory
Recognition and
comprehension
Lesson to
be learned
• Unexpected
event
• New
circumstance
• Error
• New
practice
Personal
or private
interestsPublic
interest
Cultural
acceptability
LESSONS
...LEARNED?
Sustainable
lessons Uncertainty,
unpredictability
LESSONS
...LEARNED?
Incentives
to learn
Lesson to be learned:
We will never even understand
the problem, let alone solve it,
unless we start being realistic
about the world in which we live.
Tony Oliver-SmithKai Erikson
• as Kai Erikson noted, disaster shifts
our position on fundamental dimensions
• we live in the New Baroque Age
characterised by tension of opposites
• massive cultural dynamism is
redefining the symbolism of disaster
• to understand disaster, we
need to be interdisciplinary
with boldness and ingenuity.
There is no doubt
that "we live in
interesting times".
david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk
www.slideshare.net/dealexander
emergency-planning.blogspot.com
Ishinomaki, Japan

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