This document provides a critical overview of disaster theory by David Alexander. It discusses several key points, including that fully understanding disasters requires considering social and political contexts, not just natural hazards. Communities are not homogeneous and may not prioritize disaster risk reduction. The document also examines definitions of concepts like vulnerability, resilience, and corruption and their relationship to disasters. It argues that disaster theory must be tested and applied in the real world to be useful.

1. A Critical Overviewof Disaster TheoryDavid AlexanderUniversity College London

2. The Problem

3. Theorem: A better knowledge of naturalhazards will contribute almost nothingto resolving the disasters problem... ...unless context is taken fully into account.

4. Lesson to be learned: We will never even understandthe problem, let alone solve it, unless we start being realisticabout the world in which we live.

5. •colossal imbalances in power and wealth•immense but eminently solvable problemsthat are not solved because there ispowerful opposition to attempts to do so•huge differences in thedefinition of what is rational•many key activities are notlegitimate by any standards. What is the world actually like?

6. •community-level DRR: communities arenot homogeneous or harmonious units•communities are notparticularly interested in DRR•neither are governments•disasters can be explained withreference to power structuresTerry Cannon's observations onDisaster Risk Reduction (DRR) •people, governments & communities seldomact on the basis of evidence and research•rationality can only be defined in context.

7. •corruption•political decision-making•shoddy building (often wilful) •ignorance (sometimes wilful) •seismicity. What causes earthquake disasters? -in probable order of importance -

8. Without corruption, the impact ofthis earthquake would have beenabout 10%of what it actually was.

9. •difficult to define•virtually impossible to measure•extremely pervasive, endogenous•moral and ethical frameworks vary•links with other ills(black economy). Corruption

10. NB: Correlation does not
prove causation, but....

12. www.bbc.co.uk/news

13. "Our research shows that the successof early warning is largely determinedby politics, not science." -Chatham House, London

16. •widening wealth gapsince 1970•failure to divert resources fromresponse to prevention and mitigation•half of world trade goesthrough 78 tax havens•one fifth of world trade is illicit(drugs, armaments, people, species) •relationship of proxy warsto aid. Reality check:

17. •consolidate power structures•augment profits•allow introduction of convenientlyrepressive measures•permit gratuitous social engineering. The economic and socialVALUE of disasters

18. •resources that debilitatelocal coping capacity•munitions, military hardware, soldiertraining and some humanitarian stuff•an instrument of political influence•a means of liningcertain people's pockets. What is aid?

19. •BIGconcreteon poor people's land•of direct benefit to the donorcountries•aid is in DEEP CRISIS. What is aid?

20. Disaster RiskReduction

21. On the nature of theory

22. "Theory isour roadmap" Prof. Thomas E. DrabekUniversity of Denver

23. The road map to what?
• disaster risk reduction
• adaptation to dynamic risks
• crisis response planning
• emergency management
• recovery planning and management
Theory tells us what we can and cannot do.

24. In the DRR field, theory is unique-or at least rather distinctive: it cannot wait 100 years to be tested.

25. Theory, if it is any good, •explains•connects•validates•qualifies•makes moreefficient.

26. Pioneers in DRR

27. Rev. DrSamuel Henry Prince1885-1960Nuova Scotia, Columbia UniversityProfessorHarlan H. Barrows1877-1960Michigan, Chicago University

28. 1920
1923

29. Gilbert Fowler White
1911-2006

30. "Boundedrationality" Herbert Simon, 1916-2001homo economicus

31. In disasters and disaster risk, how important is gender?

32. Kobe 1995 earthquake deaths
by gender and age
― males ― females

33. Long term
Short term
Emic components
Etic components
METAMORPHOSISOF CULTURE
Experiences of culture
[mass-media and consumer culture]
Accumulated cultural traits and beliefs
Inherited cultural background
Ideological
(non-scientific)
interpretations
of disaster
Learned
(scientific)
interpretations
of disaster

34. BENIGN (healthy) at the service of the peopleMALIGN (corrupt) at the service of vested interests
interplay
dialecticJustificationDevelopment[spiritual, cultural, political, economic] IDEOLOGYCULTURE

35. Can we define disaster? 19982005

36. HUMAN
CONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER“ORTHODOX” MODEL
PHYSICAL
EVENT
HUMAN
VULNERABILITY“RADICAL CRITIQUE” (K. HEWITT et al.)
HUMAN
CONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER
HUMAN
VULNERABILITY
PHYSICAL
EVENTLET'S CHANGE THE MODEL:-
HUMAN
CONSEQUENCES
OF DISASTER
HUMAN
VULNERABILITY
CULTURE
HISTORY
PHYSICAL
EVENTS
CONTEXT & CONSEQUENCES

37. known knowns-things we knowModified Rumsfeld Classificationunknown knowns- things we don't realisewe knowknown unknowns - things we know we don't knowunknown unknowns - things we don't know we don't know Research andapplicationsIntensifysearch Broadenour cultureWe cando nothing

38. DETERMINISM
Cause Effect
PROBABILITY
(constrained uncertainty)
Cause Single, multiple
or cascading effects
THE KNOWN
THE UNKNOWN
PURE UNCERTAINTY
Causal relationship
unknownGreyarea

39. Cascading effectsCollateral vulnerabilitySecondarydisastersInteraction between risksClimatechange
ProbabilityIndeterminacy"Fat-tailed" (skewed) distributionsof impacts

40. C
E
E
E
E
C
E/C
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E/C(a) (b) C –causeE -effectDisaster

41. Resilience

42. The "cradle" of resilience: Canonbury TowerLondon N1. Built in 1509to survive theUniversal Deluge: inhabited in 1625by Francis Bacon.

43. Francis BaconSylva Sylvarum, 1625

44. LAWSTATESMANSHIPLITERATURESCIENTIFICMETHODMECHANICS
MANU-
FACTURINGECOLOGYMANAGEMENT(ADAPTIVE) CHILDPSYCHOLOGYANTHROPOLOGYSOCIALRESEARCHDISASTER RISKREDUCTIONSUSTAINABILITYSCIENCECLIMATE CHANGEADAPTATIONc. 50 BCAD 15291625185919301950197320002010NATURALHISTORY

45. •an objective, a process or a strategy? •a paradigm, diverse paradigms? •'bounce-back' or 'bounce-forward'? •focuses on the community scale? •can reconcile dynamic & static elements? Resilience

46. Resilience
Vulnerability

47. RiskamplificationfactorsRiskmitigationfactorsTotalvulnerabilityRisk perceptionfactors-+ positivenegativeDIALECTIC

48. VulnerabilityTotal:life isgenerally precariousEconomic:people lackadequate occupationTechnological/technocratic:dueto the riskiness of technologyDelinquent:caused bycorruption, negligence, etc. Residual:caused bylack of modernisationNewly generated: caused bychanges in circumstances

49. RESILIENCE:
as a material has brittle
strength and ductility:
so must society have
an optimum combination
of resistanceto
hazard impacts and
abilityto adaptto them.

50. RESILIENCESocial Technical Physical Psychological CLIMATE CHANGEADAPTATIONDISASTER RISKREDUCTIONOTHER HAZARDSAND RISKSnaturalsocialtechnologicalintentionalcompoundcascadingSUSTAINABILITYSCIENCE

51. RISKSdaily:unemployment, poverty, disease, etc. major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc. emerging risks:pandemics, climate changeSUSTAINABILITYdisaster risk reductionresource consumptionstewardship of the environmenteconomic activitieslifestyles and communitiesSUSTAINABILITY

52. Conclusion:thewords of a dwarf perched onthe shoulders of giants

53. •advances in knowledgehave had a positive impact•the whole problem is betterknown than ever before•interdisciplinary research and problem- solving have made some progress•but the balance is still weighted heavilyin favour of a worsening situation. Correcting a one-sided picture:-

54. •realism helps•transparency is necessary•gross inequality is in no one's interest•national policies are needed and can work•cultivate a flexible attitude. The positive messages

55. THE PILLARS OF MODERN LIFE
idealism
principle
belief
faith
fanaticism
ultranationalism
authoritarianism
backlash
virtue
charity
service
defence of principles
unscrupulousness
corruption
opportunism
censure
capital availability
wealth diffusion
financial security
financial repression
debt burden
consumerism
ingegnuity
pragmatism
technological progress
crass materialism
galloping consumption
pollution and waste
technological hegemony
Ideocentrism
Morality
Luchrocentrism
Technocentrism
SPIRIT
FLESH
PHILOSOPHICAL
MECHANISTIC
Positive
Negative

56. ...culturally conditioned.
Ideocentrism
+ ideal:effective disaster mitigation
-fanaticism:politicization of humanitarian relief
Morality
+ virtue:untiring application of mitigation measures
-corruption:failure to observe building codes
Luchrocentrism
+ financial security:monetary reserves vs. disaster
-financial repression:poverty --> vulnerability
Technocentrism
+ ingenuity:new hazard monitoring systems
-technological hegemony:unfairdistribution of
mitigation benefits

57. Earthquake disasteras a negative windowof opportunityBut at the bottomthere was hope.... "Pandora's box" theory of disasters

58. Organisationalsystems: managementSocialsystems: behaviourNaturalsystems: functionTechnicalsystems: malfunctionVulnerabilityHazard Resilience Politicalsystems: decisions

59. david.alexander@ucl.ac.uk
www.slideshare.net/dealexander
emergency-planning.blogspot.com
Ishinomaki, Japan