This document discusses cascading disasters and critical infrastructure. It begins with an overview of cascading disasters as events with primary impacts that lead to secondary impacts through interconnected vulnerabilities and escalation points. The document then discusses critical infrastructure and how the failure of critical systems like power, water, and communications can cascade and impact other sectors. It emphasizes that cascading disasters involve long chains of consequences and that risk analysis should consider escalation points and worst-case scenarios. The goal is to understand these complex events in order to enhance resilience and protection of critical infrastructure.
Disaster Management in Bangladesh: Risk Reduction and ChallengesSajid Karim
Presentation will address the following
Disaster Vulnerability of Bangladesh
Disaster Management Mechanism in Bangladesh
Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies of Bangladesh
Challenges and Recommendations
Disaster Management in Bangladesh: Risk Reduction and ChallengesSajid Karim
Presentation will address the following
Disaster Vulnerability of Bangladesh
Disaster Management Mechanism in Bangladesh
Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies of Bangladesh
Challenges and Recommendations
Disaster Management Process And Significance PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
Counter great challenges with our content-ready disaster management process and significance PowerPoint presentation slides. The emergency management PPT templates ensure necessary strategies to provide prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery. These disaster preparedness plan presentation illustrations help communities mitigate the potential adverse effects of a natural disaster. Our mitigation strategy PowerPoint slides cover all the necessary preventive measures such as risk mapping, calamity factors, catastrophe risk formula, disaster cycle, flood preparedness, and earthquake scale. Additionally, our disaster recovery plan PPT show focus on creating a plan to lessen the occurrences of disaster. This emergency management cycle PowerPoint illustration can be used for the other same subjects such as, cyclic disturbances prevention, hazard control, ecosystem stability, stochastic events, disaster recovery planning, climate resilience, sustainable development, business continuity, disaster risk reduction, mass fatality incident and natural catastrophe insurance program. Download our disaster management process and significance PPT visuals which are customizable. Get access to facilities beyond imagination with our Disaster Management Process And Significance PowerPoint Presentation Slides. You will have everything to gain.
Explain with example the structural and non structural mitigation programs ta...Jahangir Alam
Disaster Management: Explain with an example the structural and non-structural mitigation programs taken by GoB with reference to disaster risk reduction in Bangladesh
Disaster risk reduction practices in bangladeshJahangir Alam
Bangladesh
DRR concept
Evolving Paradigms of DM
Actions and Strategies on DRR
Working with Community
Gaps, Concerns, Limitations & Challenges
Learning and Observation
Step Forward
DP ?New generation DRR Practitioner
GANDHI? Conclusion
Bangladesh:
B-Bay of Bengal
A- Agriculture
N-NGOs
G-Garments and GB
L-Land of Rivers
A-Adaptability
D-Disasters, DM, Democracy
E-Emergency
S-SAARC
H-High: Population growth, Vulnerabilities
Presented by: Sheikh Mohammed Tauhidul Islam
4.4 Communication and outreach
The session will focus on key considerations and best practices in communication and outreach in the formulation and implementation of NAPs. It will look at such issues as the purpose, objectives, channels for communications and outreach, and the role that media can play. It will also include examples from countries on their communication and outreach programmes.
Disaster Management Process And Significance PowerPoint Presentation SlidesSlideTeam
Counter great challenges with our content-ready disaster management process and significance PowerPoint presentation slides. The emergency management PPT templates ensure necessary strategies to provide prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery. These disaster preparedness plan presentation illustrations help communities mitigate the potential adverse effects of a natural disaster. Our mitigation strategy PowerPoint slides cover all the necessary preventive measures such as risk mapping, calamity factors, catastrophe risk formula, disaster cycle, flood preparedness, and earthquake scale. Additionally, our disaster recovery plan PPT show focus on creating a plan to lessen the occurrences of disaster. This emergency management cycle PowerPoint illustration can be used for the other same subjects such as, cyclic disturbances prevention, hazard control, ecosystem stability, stochastic events, disaster recovery planning, climate resilience, sustainable development, business continuity, disaster risk reduction, mass fatality incident and natural catastrophe insurance program. Download our disaster management process and significance PPT visuals which are customizable. Get access to facilities beyond imagination with our Disaster Management Process And Significance PowerPoint Presentation Slides. You will have everything to gain.
Explain with example the structural and non structural mitigation programs ta...Jahangir Alam
Disaster Management: Explain with an example the structural and non-structural mitigation programs taken by GoB with reference to disaster risk reduction in Bangladesh
Disaster risk reduction practices in bangladeshJahangir Alam
Bangladesh
DRR concept
Evolving Paradigms of DM
Actions and Strategies on DRR
Working with Community
Gaps, Concerns, Limitations & Challenges
Learning and Observation
Step Forward
DP ?New generation DRR Practitioner
GANDHI? Conclusion
Bangladesh:
B-Bay of Bengal
A- Agriculture
N-NGOs
G-Garments and GB
L-Land of Rivers
A-Adaptability
D-Disasters, DM, Democracy
E-Emergency
S-SAARC
H-High: Population growth, Vulnerabilities
Presented by: Sheikh Mohammed Tauhidul Islam
4.4 Communication and outreach
The session will focus on key considerations and best practices in communication and outreach in the formulation and implementation of NAPs. It will look at such issues as the purpose, objectives, channels for communications and outreach, and the role that media can play. It will also include examples from countries on their communication and outreach programmes.
Keynote Speaker – "Infrastructure Interdependencies: Connections that Alter Consequences" - Michael J. Collins III, Infrastructure Analyst, Infrastructure Assurance Center, Argonne National Laboratories
Building Resilient Energy Infrastructures: Adapting to Climate ChangeChristo Ananth
Christo Ananth, Rajini K R Karduri, " Building Resilient Energy Infrastructures: Adapting
to Climate Change", International Journal of Advanced Research in Basic Engineering Sciences and Technology (IJARBEST), Volume 8,Issue 5,May 2022,pp 15-24
This talk describes risk and resilience of engineering and enterprise systems to emergent and future conditions including natural and human induced hazards, technologies, regulations, behaviors, markets, demographics, supply chains, workforce, environments, etc. An emphasis is the quantification of risk, resilience, security, and trust as disruptions of systemic priorities. Examples will include a broadband wireless network for public safety, a maritime container port, airport runway safety, an energy grid of developing countries, and bidirectional chargers and microgrids for fleets of electric vehicles.
Traditionally, the performance of critical infrastructure
(e.g., power grid, telecommunication or water supply
systems) has been analysed by classical risk assessment
methods for their safe and reliable design and operation
(Linkov et al., 2014). This approach allows responding
adequately to known and credible hazards and threats.
However, more recently it has become apparent that
additional efforts and considerations are needed beyond
the well-established state-of-the-art to ensure efficient
recovery from low-probability high-impact disruptive
events (Panteli & Mancarella, 2015). As a consequence,
increased attention is given worldwide to the resilience
of infrastructure systems, which is considered a key
property to adequately deal with disruptions, i.e., natural
and man-made disasters (i.e., technical, human and
organizational factors and intentional attacks) (Jackson,
2015). This view is strongly supported by the notion that
not all hazards and threats can be averted (Cimellaro,
2016), as major disasters repeatedly demonstrated in the
past decades (Garrick, 2008; Zio & Aven, 2013). Wellknown
examples include the September 11 terrorist
attacks in 2001, hurricane Katrina in 2005, the blackouts
in North America (2003) (Andersson et al., 2005), India
(2012) (Tang et al., 2012), and Turkey (2015) (European
The transportation system in Istanbul prone to earthquake
Definitions, Systemic vulnerability, Focus on transportation system, Istanbul Case Study: Hazard, Istanbul Case Study:Vulnerability in general; Istanbul Case Study: Social vulnerability; Current awareness and preparedness of earthquake risk; Istanbul Case Study: Systemic vulnerability – Transportation system in Istanbul prone to earthquake risk.
This presentations explains the main definitions related to flood risk management. and how to assess the Vulnerability of the society towards flood dangers. and flood risk analysis process. and gives some examples of flood risk assessment applications.
Appendix D Hazard Analysis ProcessInstructor GuideAppendix .docxjustine1simpson78276
Appendix D: Hazard Analysis Process
Instructor Guide
Appendix D
HAZARD ANALYSIS PROCESS
Finding out what the hazards are is the first step in any effort to reduce community vulnerability. Hazard analysis involves identifying all of the hazards that potentially threaten a community and analyzing them individually to determine the degree of threat that is posed by each. Hazard analysis determines:
· What hazards can occur.
· How often they are likely to occur.
· How severe the situation is likely to get.
· How these hazards are likely to affect the community.
· How vulnerable the community is to the hazard.
This information is used in the development of both mitigation and emergency plans. It indicates which hazards merit special attention, what actions might be taken to reduce the impact of those hazards, and what resources are likely to be needed.
Hazard analysis requires completion of five steps:
1. Identify the hazards.
2. Profile each hazard.
3. Develop a community profile.
4.
Compare and prioritize risk.
5.
Create and apply scenarios.
Step 1: Identify Hazards
The first step in hazard analysis is to put together a list of hazards that may occur in the community. A community hazard analysis should consider all types of hazards. Categories of hazards include natural hazards such as storms and seismological events; technological hazards such as nuclear power plants, oil or gas pipelines and other hazardous materials facilities; and civil or political hazards such as a neighborhood that has been the scene of rioting or large demonstrations. Cascading emergencies—situations when one hazard triggers others in a cascading fashion—should be considered. For example, an earthquake that ruptured natural gas pipelines could result in fires and explosions that dramatically escalate the type and magnitude of events. Information about hazards may be collected from existing analyses and historical data.
Existing Hazard Analysis. If the community has an existing hazard analysis, don’t “reinvent the wheel”. The best way to begin is by reviewing the existing hazard analysis and identifying any changes that may have occurred since it was developed or last updated. Examples of the kinds of changes within or near the community that could cause hazard analysis information to change over time include:
· New mitigation measures (e.g., a new levee or overflow spillway, new zoning ordinances designed to reduce the amount of damage caused by a specific hazard, or reconstruction of bridges and overpasses).
· The opening or closing of facilities or structures that pose potential secondary hazards (e.g., hazardous materials facilities and transport routes).
When reviewing the hazard analysis, determine three things:
1.
Do all of the hazards included in the hazard analysis still pose a threat to the community?
2.
Are there hazards that are not included in the existing analysis that pose a potential threat to the community?
3.
Does the hazard ana.
System shock analysis and complex network effectsKimmo Soramaki
Joint presentation with Michelle Tuveson and Dr Andrew Coburn from Cambridge Risk Center at the Conference Board Global Risk Conference in New York, 8 May 2013.
Links to conference website: http://www.conference-board.org/conferences/conferencedetail.cfm?conferenceid=2456
Dr Sarah Dunn presented a seminar titled "Infrastructure Resilience: Planning for Future Extreme Events" as part of the SMART Seminar Series on 12th April 2018.
More information: http://www.uoweis.co/event/infrastructure-resilience-planning-for-future-extreme-events/
Keep updated with future events: http://www.uoweis.co/events/category/smart-infrastructure-facility/
Technological Disaster Management using GIS techniques.Science and technology can provide information and tools that can be used at each stage of the disaster management process. Preparation: Science and technology can be used to identify potential hazards and develop plans and procedures for dealing with them.
Disaster Theory : chapter 5 “Disaster and Complexity” by David Etkinsalinnasriworaweat
This presentation is part of the subject "Advanced theory of regional planning, Insititute of Urban Innovation, Yokohama National University"
The purpose is to understand and summarize articles of theory related to natural disasters.
Diagnosis of the relative failure of disaster risk reduction in the modern world and proposal for a cure - at least regarding disaster response, if not also prevention.
Will major emergencies in the future be anything like those of the past? To what extent can we derive lessons from past disasters that will help us deal with future ones? This presentation explores these questions.
About the intersection of different kinds of disaster and vulnerability. Complexity of modern disasters and the means of tackling them. Cascading and concurrent major incidents and disasters.
A framework for understanding, analysing and managing cascading disasters, with notes on complexity, compound risks, interacting risks and interconnected risks.
Una previsione del fabbisogno del futuro rispetto alla necessita' di una risposta forte contro i disastri. Due sono i messaggi: (1) dato i rischi che si materializzeranno, avremo bisogno di una protezione civile che e' un ordine di magnitudo piu' forte di quella attuale; (2) dovremo combattere contro la "realta' fabbricata" di false informazioni.
Verso una cultura di prevenzione e mitigazione, ma nello stesso tempo verso la preservazione delle culture umane daglil effetti depredanti dei disastri.
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptxPavel ( NSTU)
Synthetic fiber production is a fascinating and complex field that blends chemistry, engineering, and environmental science. By understanding these aspects, students can gain a comprehensive view of synthetic fiber production, its impact on society and the environment, and the potential for future innovations. Synthetic fibers play a crucial role in modern society, impacting various aspects of daily life, industry, and the environment. ynthetic fibers are integral to modern life, offering a range of benefits from cost-effectiveness and versatility to innovative applications and performance characteristics. While they pose environmental challenges, ongoing research and development aim to create more sustainable and eco-friendly alternatives. Understanding the importance of synthetic fibers helps in appreciating their role in the economy, industry, and daily life, while also emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and innovation.
How to Create Map Views in the Odoo 17 ERPCeline George
The map views are useful for providing a geographical representation of data. They allow users to visualize and analyze the data in a more intuitive manner.
The Art Pastor's Guide to Sabbath | Steve ThomasonSteve Thomason
What is the purpose of the Sabbath Law in the Torah. It is interesting to compare how the context of the law shifts from Exodus to Deuteronomy. Who gets to rest, and why?
The Indian economy is classified into different sectors to simplify the analysis and understanding of economic activities. For Class 10, it's essential to grasp the sectors of the Indian economy, understand their characteristics, and recognize their importance. This guide will provide detailed notes on the Sectors of the Indian Economy Class 10, using specific long-tail keywords to enhance comprehension.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
Welcome to TechSoup New Member Orientation and Q&A (May 2024).pdfTechSoup
In this webinar you will learn how your organization can access TechSoup's wide variety of product discount and donation programs. From hardware to software, we'll give you a tour of the tools available to help your nonprofit with productivity, collaboration, financial management, donor tracking, security, and more.
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
Palestine last event orientationfvgnh .pptxRaedMohamed3
An EFL lesson about the current events in Palestine. It is intended to be for intermediate students who wish to increase their listening skills through a short lesson in power point.
Students, digital devices and success - Andreas Schleicher - 27 May 2024..pptxEduSkills OECD
Andreas Schleicher presents at the OECD webinar ‘Digital devices in schools: detrimental distraction or secret to success?’ on 27 May 2024. The presentation was based on findings from PISA 2022 results and the webinar helped launch the PISA in Focus ‘Managing screen time: How to protect and equip students against distraction’ https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/managing-screen-time_7c225af4-en and the OECD Education Policy Perspective ‘Students, digital devices and success’ can be found here - https://oe.cd/il/5yV
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdfkaushalkr1407
The Roman Empire, a vast and enduring power, stands as one of history's most remarkable civilizations, leaving an indelible imprint on the world. It emerged from the Roman Republic, transitioning into an imperial powerhouse under the leadership of Augustus Caesar in 27 BCE. This transformation marked the beginning of an era defined by unprecedented territorial expansion, architectural marvels, and profound cultural influence.
The empire's roots lie in the city of Rome, founded, according to legend, by Romulus in 753 BCE. Over centuries, Rome evolved from a small settlement to a formidable republic, characterized by a complex political system with elected officials and checks on power. However, internal strife, class conflicts, and military ambitions paved the way for the end of the Republic. Julius Caesar’s dictatorship and subsequent assassination in 44 BCE created a power vacuum, leading to a civil war. Octavian, later Augustus, emerged victorious, heralding the Roman Empire’s birth.
Under Augustus, the empire experienced the Pax Romana, a 200-year period of relative peace and stability. Augustus reformed the military, established efficient administrative systems, and initiated grand construction projects. The empire's borders expanded, encompassing territories from Britain to Egypt and from Spain to the Euphrates. Roman legions, renowned for their discipline and engineering prowess, secured and maintained these vast territories, building roads, fortifications, and cities that facilitated control and integration.
The Roman Empire’s society was hierarchical, with a rigid class system. At the top were the patricians, wealthy elites who held significant political power. Below them were the plebeians, free citizens with limited political influence, and the vast numbers of slaves who formed the backbone of the economy. The family unit was central, governed by the paterfamilias, the male head who held absolute authority.
Culturally, the Romans were eclectic, absorbing and adapting elements from the civilizations they encountered, particularly the Greeks. Roman art, literature, and philosophy reflected this synthesis, creating a rich cultural tapestry. Latin, the Roman language, became the lingua franca of the Western world, influencing numerous modern languages.
Roman architecture and engineering achievements were monumental. They perfected the arch, vault, and dome, constructing enduring structures like the Colosseum, Pantheon, and aqueducts. These engineering marvels not only showcased Roman ingenuity but also served practical purposes, from public entertainment to water supply.
Operation “Blue Star” is the only event in the history of Independent India where the state went into war with its own people. Even after about 40 years it is not clear if it was culmination of states anger over people of the region, a political game of power or start of dictatorial chapter in the democratic setup.
The people of Punjab felt alienated from main stream due to denial of their just demands during a long democratic struggle since independence. As it happen all over the word, it led to militant struggle with great loss of lives of military, police and civilian personnel. Killing of Indira Gandhi and massacre of innocent Sikhs in Delhi and other India cities was also associated with this movement.
2. Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction
Prof. David Alexander
Professor of Risk
and Disaster Reduction
Dr Gianluca Pescaroli
Lecturer in Business Continuity
and Organisational Resilience
Dr Robert Wicks
Associate Prof. of Space Weather Risk
IRDR / Dept of Space and Climate Physics
UCL-IRDR Cascading Disasters Research Group
5. The wider agenda:-
• what is the role of
root causes in disasters?
• what is the balance between
root causes and immediate causes?
• how do cascades function?
• what and where are
the escalation points?
• how do we deal with
all of this in order
to make life safer?
6. 'PRESSURE-AND-RELEASE' MODEL
PROGRESSION OF VULNERABILITY
ROOT
CAUSES
DYNAMIC
PRESSURES
UNSAFE
CONDITIONS
HAZARDSDISASTER
Theoretical and conceptual framework for analysis
Wisner, Cannon, Blaikie and Davis 2004, At Risk.
7. 'PRESSURE-AND-RELEASE' MODEL
PROGRESSION OF VULNERABILITY
ROOT
CAUSES
DYNAMIC
PRESSURES
UNSAFE
CONDITIONS
HAZARDSDISASTER
Theoretical and conceptual framework for analysis
Wisner, Cannon, Blaikie and Davis 2004, At Risk.
8. The "egg hypothesis" Disaster
• prima facie causes
• root causes
• vulnerabilities
• dynamic pressures
Context
• general
vulnerability
• poverty
• deprivation
• marginalisation
9. The "egg hypothesis" Disaster
• prima facie causes
• root causes
• vulnerabilities
• dynamic pressures
Context
• general
vulnerability
• poverty
• deprivation
• marginalisation
Disaster
Marginalisation,
impoverishment
13. `
• current knowledge about the concepts
of vulnerability, threat and risk
• current knowledge about
the concept of resilience
• human organisation in crisis situations
• gap analysis and resilience matrix
• interactions between resilience
and vulnerability: theoretical model.
Balancing vulnerability
and resilience
14. Direct causes:
practical problems
contributing to disaster
Long-term causes
(dynamic pressures):
predisposition for disaster
Root causes:
motivating and
underlying factors
Local
cascading
effects
National
cascading
effects
International
cascading
effects
Escalation
factors
Context
16. Cascading disasters
[crises, emergencies]
are negative events that involve:-
• a primary impact (the trigger)
• chains & networks of consequences
• secondary impacts
• complex interacting vulnerabilities
• escalation points
• (usually) complex impacts
upon critical infrastructure.
17. Intangible effects
heritage
e.g. museum ->
artefacts ->
restorers
Cascading
escalation of
secondary
events
Triggering
event
National response
capacity
overwhelmed
Disruption of
critical
infrastructure
Direct effects:
functional nodes
e.g. power plant failure -
> lack of energy supply -
> lack of water
Indirect effects:
autonomous hazards
e.g. nuclear plant-
>contamination->CBRN
training and dosimetersRequest/offer
international
relief
Source: Pescaroli & Kelman 2016, JCCM
19. Water
treatment works Railway station
Fire station
Electricity sub-station
Broadband antenna
Hospital
Supermarket
Power station
Waste water
treatment works
FLOOD SITUATION
20. Cascading disasters
• topping dominoes, knock-on effects
• linking physical and social vulnerabilities
• compound and interconnected risks
• non-linear progress and amplification of risks
• multiple-scale and secondary risks.
25. Primary
cause of
disaster
Impact on
critical
infrastructure
Impact on
housing
Impact on
productive
capacity
Direct
impacts
Indirect
impacts
Impact on
activities
Secondary
impacts
Impact on
livelihoods
Impact on
revenue
Secondary
cause of
disaster
Impact on
well-being
Impact on
safety
Impact on
recovery
26. Source: Pescaroli and Alexander, 2016
Time
Short/fastLong/slow
SpaceRestricted Extensive
CAS & critical
infrastructure
Macro-level socio-
technical systems, e.g.
globalisation
Local & regional socio-
technical systems, e.g.
policies
Environmental
triggers (if any)
Impact and
feedback
Vulnerability
loops
27. Cascading disasters magnitude scale (Alexander 2018)
Cascading disasters involve escalation points which
result from the interaction of different vulnerabilities.
28. Level 0 - Simple incident or major incident.
No significant cascades or escalation points.
Level 1 - Major incident of limited complexity.
Simple, short cascades as secondary effects of the starting impact.
Level 2 - Major incident or small disaster, some complex consequences.
Limited cascade chains propagate to tertiary levels.
Level 3 - Disaster, with complex consequences.
Significant cascade chains with at least one escalation point.
Level 4 - Disaster, with substantially complex consequences.
Easily identifiable cascades with escalation points.
Level 5 - Catastrophe, with overwhelmingly complex consequences.
Major initial impact sets off long causal chains of cascading
consequences, some of which through escalation points
generate secondary causal chains.
Magnitude classification of cascading incidents, crises and disasters
31. Critical infrastructure: "those infrastructure
assets (physical or electronic) that are vital
to the continued delivery and integrity of
the essential services upon which society
relies, the loss or compromission of
which would lead to severe economic or
social consequences or to loss of life."
35. Coronal mass ejections
"space weather"
• damage to electricity
transformers
• damage to
communications satellites
• damage to global
navigation systems
• increased radiation dose
• communications
interruptions
36. 1859 - the "Carrington Event"
660 BC - a CME ten times larger...
39. Knock-on effects of electricity failure
• water: no pumping, no wastewater discharge or treatment
• energy: heat and air conditioning down, gas unusable
• food: no refrigeration; quick contamination
• health: reliance on hospital generators
• transport: no traffic control, no fuel pumping
• communications: no mass-communications at all
• finance: no money supply
• government: cannot communicate with the people
• emergency services: hampered and over-stretched.
42. Hogan, M. 2013.
Anytown Report.
London Resilience
Telecoms
Electricity
Water
Acute healthcare
Primary &
community
healthcare
Wider
community
impact
Local
authorities
& businesses
environment sector
Climate &
Transport sector
Emergency
services
sector
43. Generators in critical facilities
(e.g. hospitals)
• low or uncertain fuel autonomy & resupply
• not designed to function for long periods
• seldom tested
• high rate of failure.
44. Wide-area prolonged power supply interruption
• technical failure with 'domino effect'
• excess of demand over supply
• successful cyber attack
• direct terrorist attack (sabotage)
• space weather damages transformers
• ice storm, wind storm, etc.
• other causes
46. There is now a demand for
knowledge about cascading
impacts and their effects
• decision support systems
• theoretical models
• exploration of scenarios
• training sessions
• information dissemination
• brainstorming sessions.
47. How to deal with cascading disasters and crises
• do not focus only on the trigger event
• consider the strategic and tactical levels
• use a broader impact analysis with 'impact trees'
• create reasonable worst-case scenarios
• identify escalation points and subject them to 'stress tests'.
48. Cyber
Human
Physical
Set goals and objectives
Identify assets, systems and networks
Assess risks: vulnerabilities,
threats, consequences
Prioritise
Implement programmes
Measure effectiveness
Continuous
improvement
to enhance
protection
of critical
infrastructure
and key
resources
Feedback loop
49. Safeguarding critical infrastructure
• redundant systems
• adequate levels of operating supplies
• fault-tolerant design
• "fail-safe" design
• adequate and reserve manpower
• scenarios for failures and disasters
• contingency and emergency plans kept current
• involvement of top management.
50. evolution
development
of the
scenarioevolution
time
zero
formal evaluation of the
outcome of the scenario
consequences
at time n
Scenario
methodology
in emergency
planning
consequences
at time 2
consequences
at time 1
reference
event
initial
conditions
evaluation of
the progress
of the scenario
historical
analysis
hypothetical
ingredients
52. DISASTER
POLITICS
ECONOMICS
SOCIAL CONDITIONS
PHYSICAL IMPACT
Politics in
the service
of economics
VULNERABILITY
knowledge is ideology
Complexity
Ideology
• extremism
• separatism
• isolationism
• exclusion
Conflict
Climate change
Demographic change
• human mobility
Culture
Underlying risk drivers
53. LOSS OF
HUMAN RIGHTS
PROXY WAR,
CONFLICT &
POLARISATION
POVERTY &
MARGINALISATION
'WRECKAGE ECONOMY' &
RISE OF THE PRECARIAT
LACK OF
DISASTER
GOVERNANCE
NIHILISM
CORRUPTION &
LOSS OF TRUSTANOMIE
constraints upon life and safety
Anomie (Durkheim) is a condition
of instability resulting from
a breakdown of standards
and values or from
a lack of purpose
or ideals.
54. Anomie means loss of basic morality.
There is a disaster because fairness
gives way to self-promotion and
blatant exploitation.
“Qu’ils mangent de la brioche!”
Disaster is about the use and abuse of power:
we have to factor that into the equation.
55. Conclusions
• society is complex: all disasters of
a certain size will involve cascades
• more investigation of operational
components is needed
• we need operational guidelines on
cascading effects of power failures
• we need to understand how people
behave in cascading crises
• inter-institutional dialogue
needs to be increased
• we need to investigate
more case studies.
56. International Journal of
Disaster Risk Reduction
Special Issue (2018):
Understanding and
mitigating cascading
crises in the global
interconnected system
57.
58. Thank you for listening!
emergency-planning.blogspot.com
www.slideshare.net/dealexander
www.ucl.ac.uk/rdr/cascading
David.Alexander@ucl.ac.uk