1. Currency Highlights
30th
Dec’2016
HighLights:
Indian Rupee recovered from its low to 68.10 on Thursday
US Unemployment Claims fell to 265,000 w/e on 23rd Dec’16
UK’s Nationwide HPI grew by 0.8 percent in the current month
Euro Zone Money Supply gained by 4.8 percent in November
Indian Rupee recovered from its low and appreciated around 14 paise to end
at 68.10 against the US dollar on Thursday. The currency appreciated tracking
the gains in the Asian currencies markets. Further, upbeat domestic market
sentiments led to upside in the currency.
However, sharp upside in the currency was capped due to outflow of foreign
funds after selling by institutional investors in equities. Since 8th Nov’16, the
foreign institutional investors have sold a combined of nearly $10 billion in
local equity and debt markets. So far this year, foreign institutional investors
have bought $3.18 billion in equities and sold $6.73 billion in debt.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 68.04 to 68.23 in Thursday’s trade. The
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at
68.1241 and Euro stood at 71.2101 as on 29th Dec’16.
For the month of December 2016, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs.7514.99 crores ($1105.55 million) as on 29th December 2016. Year
to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.21227.48 crores ($3266.26 million) as on 29th December 2016.
US Dollar Index plunged around 0.5 percent in Thursday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments in early
part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as
a result of favourable economic data from the country.
US Unemployment Claims dropped by 10,000 to 265,000 for the week ending on 23rd Dec’16 as against a rise of 275,000 in prior week.
Goods Trade Balance was at a deficit of $65.3 billion in November from a deficit of $61.9 billion in October. Prelim Wholesale Inventories
grew by 0.9 percent in previous month with respect to drop of 0.1 percent in October.
Euro against dollar rose around 0.77 percent on Thursday on account of weakness in the dollar index. However, weak global market senti-
ments in later part of the trade along with unfavourable economic data from the region capped sharp gains in the currency.
Euro Zone Money Supply gained by 4.8 percent in November as against a rise of 4.4 percent in October. Private Loans grew marginally by
1.9 percent in previous month from 1.8 percent in October.
The Sterling Pound grew around 0.3 percent in Thursday’s trade as a result of weakness in the dollar index. Further, upbeat global market
sentiments in early part of the trade along with favourable economic data from the country kept the currency in positive territory. UK’s
Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) grew by 0.8 percent in the current month.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.6 percent in Thursday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market
sentiments in later part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 102.86 103.21 (0.35) (0.34)
USD/INR(Spot) 68.07 68.21 (0.14) (0.21)
USD/INR(NseJan) 68.26 68.38 (0.12) (0.18)
EUR/INR(Spot) 71.15 71.04 0.11 0.15
EUR/INR(NseJan) 71.55 71.47 0.08 0.11
GBP/INR(Spot) 83.43 83.39 0.04 0.05
GBP/INR(NseJan) 83.86 83.77 0.09 0.11
JPY/INR(NseJan) 58.75 58.28 0.47 0.80
MarketHighlights
2. Technical View:
On daily chart, it has been observed that the JPYINR has
completed a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern at 57.55 levels
the coordinates of which are as follows:
Technical Parameter: XA of the leg from 56 to 67.90,AB
of the leg completed at 63.30 (i.e.38.20% of XA leg.), BC
of the leg completed at 67.50 (i.e. near 88.60% of AB leg)
and CD of the leg completed at 57.55 level. (i.e. 88% of
XA and 224% of BC leg).
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading in
oversold zone which indicates up side momentum can
be seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown posi-
tive crossover which suggest possibilities of rebound in
the prices on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could JPYINR buy in the
range of 58.55 with SL of 58.20 for target of 59.10 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its horizontal channel
at 67.50 levels on daily chart and price has retested its
breakout trend line at 67.40 levels.
On daily chart price has taken support of its 61.80% Fib-
onacci retracement levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator RSI has been trading above 40
levels, which suggest further positive momentum can be
seen in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown
positive crossover on hourly chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy USDINR in
range 68.15 with SL of 67.90 for target of 68.70.
Currency Highlights
30th
Dec’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 68.02 68.21 68.40 68.40 68.59 68.59 68.78
JPYINR 57.95 58.32 58.54 58.69 58.91 59.06 59.43
3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
30th
Dec’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has taken support of its horizontal trend line
at 70.60 levels on daily chart. The EURINR pair has also
taken support of its falling trend line at 70.70 levels on
daily chart.
The pair has been trading above its 15 HEMA on hourly
chart, which suggest further bullishness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI has moved up
form its oversold zone, which suggest bullishness in the
prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive cross-
over on 4 hourly chart, which support our bullish view
to the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move higher to-
wards 70.90 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its rising channel
pattern at 85 levels on daily chart. The pair has been
facing resistance of its falling trend line at 86.10 levels
on daily chart. The prices have been facing resistance of
its horizontal line at 86 levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading below 50 DEMA,
which suggest short term trend looks negative.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has given nega-
tive cross over on daily chart, which gives the sign of
bearishness in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading below 60
levels on daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of
further weakness in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards
82.90 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 83.39 83.61 83.73 83.83 83.95 84.05 84.27
EURINR 71.14 71.33 71.44 71.52 71.63 71.71 71.90
4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
30th
Dec’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
30.12.16 01:30 PM Spanish Flash CPI y/y 0.7% 0.9% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
30.12.16 08:15 PM Chicago PMI 57.6 56.5 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
5. Currency Highlights
30th
Dec’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Anish Vyas
Digitally signed by Anish Vyas
DN: cn=Anish Vyas, o=Choice Merchandise
Broking Pvt. Ltd, ou=Sr. Research Associate,
email=anish.vyas@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.12.30 08:48:30 +05'30'
