#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyHighlights

1. Currency Highlights
29th
Nov’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee hits a fresh 39-month low of 68.80 in Monday’s
trade
 Japan’s Household Spending plunged by 0.4 percent in October
 Euro Zone Money Supply fell to 4.4 percent in the previous month
 Japan’s Retail Sales declined by 0.1 percent in the last month
Indian Rupee came under pressure and touched a 39-month low to
depreciate around 31 paise to end at 68.78 against the US dollar on
Monday. The currency depreciated on account of $5 billion outflows
from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) from local equity and bond
markets post the demonetisation scheme announced by the govern-
ment. So far this year, FIIs have bought $4.57 billion in equities and
sold $3.02 billion in debt. Further, estimates of hike in interest rates
by the Federal Reserve in its December meeting kept pressure on the
currency.
However, upbeat domestic market sentiments cushioned sharp fall in the currency. Indian Rupee moved in the range of 68.43
to 68.80 in Monday’s trade. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at 68.7235 and Euro
stood at 73.1768 as on 28th
Nov’16.
For the month of November 2016, FII outflows in equities totalled at Rs.16224.65 crores ($2394.55 million) as on 28th
Novem-
ber 2016. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.30762.07 crores ($4665.78 million) as on 28th
November 2016.
US Dollar Index plunged around 0.2 percent in Monday’s trading session due to rise in risk a in global markets in early part of
the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, estimates of favourable economic data from
the country cushioned sharp negative movement in the currency.
Euro against dollar grew around 0.1 percent on Monday on account of weakness in the dollar index. Further, upbeat market
sentiments in early part of the trade led to positive movement in the currency. However, unfavourable economic data from
the region capped sharp gains in the currency. Euro Zone Money Supply fell to 4.4 percent in October as against a rise of 5.1
percent in September. Private Loans unchanged at 1.8 percent in the previous month.
The Sterling Pound declined around 0.53 percent in Monday’s trade as a result of weak global market sentiments in later part
of the trade. However, estimates of optimistic economic data from the country along with weaker dollar cushioned sharp fall
in the currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.63 percent in Monday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in
global market sentiments in later part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Japan’s
Household Spending plunged by 0.4 percent in October as against a fall of 2.1 percent in September. Unemployment Rate un-
changed at 3 percent in the month of October. Retail Sales declined by 0.1 percent in last month with respect to drop of 1.7
percent in September.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 101.48 101.77 (0.29) (0.29)
USD/INR(Spot) 68.52 68.76 (0.24) (0.35)
USD/INR(NseNov) 68.44 68.70 (0.26) (0.38)
EUR/INR(Spot) 72.56 72.55 0.01 0.01
EUR/INR(NseNov) 72.52 72.67 (0.15) (0.21)
GBP/INR(Spot) 85.45 85.60 (0.15) (0.18)
GBP/INR(NseNov) 85.24 85.76 (0.52) (0.61)
JPY/INR(NseNov) 60.67 60.82 (0.15) (0.25)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The price has given breakdown of its descending triangle
pattern at 61 levels on daily chart. On daily chart JPYINR
price has shown breakdown of its rising trend lie at 62.90
levels on daily chart.
Moreover, prices have been trading below its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bearishness in the prices.
On daily chart momentum indicator RSI is trading below
50 levels which suggest further weakness can be seen in
the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown neg-
ative crossover and trading below signal line on daily
chart.
So for trading perspective, one could JPYINR sell in the
range of 61.20 with SL of 60.90 for target of 61.80 levels.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The pair has given breakout of its horizontal channel
pattern at 68.32 levels on daily chart. On daily chart
USDINR price is retested its breakout trend line at 68.40
levels.
Moreover, prices have been trading above its 50 DEMA
which gives the sign of bullishness in the prices.
Furthermore, price has shown breakout of its horizontal
trend line at 67.95 levels on daily chart.
A momentum indicator RSI has traded above 60 levels,
which suggest further positive momentum can be seen
in the prices.
In addition, momentum indicator MACD has shown pos-
itive crossover on daily chart.
So for trading perspective, one could buy USDINR in
range 68.60 with SL of 68.20 for target of 69.30.
Currency Highlights
29th
Nov’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.66 68.07 68.25 68.48 68.66 68.89 69.30
JPYINR 59.13 59.83 60.25 60.53 60.95 61.23 61.93

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
29th
Nov’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its descending trian-
gle a pattern at 72.70 levels on daily chart. The EURINR
pair has shown horizontal trend line at 72.80 levels on
daily chart.
The pair has been trading below its 50 DEMA on daily
chart, which suggest further weakness can be seen in
the prices.
On daily chart momentum oscillator RSI have been trad-
ing below 60 which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart, which add more bearishness
in the prices.
For now we can expect prices should move lower to-
wards 72.40 levels in the coming trading session.
Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its rising channel
pattern at 85 levels on daily chart. Moreover, prices
have been trading above 21 DEMA, which suggest short
term trend looks positive.
Moreover, price has shown breakout of its horizontal
trend line at 84.60 levels on daily chart.
A momentum indicator MADC has given positive Cross
over on hourly chart, which gives the sign of bullishness
in the prices.
The momentum indictor RSI has been trading above 60
levels on daily chart, which suggest the possibilities of
bounce back in the in the prices.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards
86.30 levels coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 84.05 84.65 84.95 85.25 85.55 85.85 86.45
EURINR 71.64 72.05 72.29 72.46 72.70 72.87 73.28

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
29th
Nov’2016
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
29.11.16 01:15 PM French Consumer Spending
m/m
-0.2% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
29.11.16 01:30 PM Spanish Flash CPI y/y 0.7% 0.5% Actual > Forecast = Good
for currency; EURINR
29.11.16 07:00 PM Prelim GDP q/q 2.9% 3.0% More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
USDINR
29.11.16 8:30 PM CB Consumer Confidence 98.6 101.30 Actual < Forecast = Good
for currency; USDINR
29.11.16 11:10 PM FOMC Member Powell
Speaks
More hawkish than expected
= Good for currency;
USDINR

5. Currency Highlights
29th
Nov’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.11.29 08:59:54 +05'30'