#ChoiceBroking #CurrencyReports: Indian Rupee retreated from a week high to end at 67.16 on Monday

1. Currency Highlights
31st
May’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee retreated from a week high to end at 67.16 on Monday
 German Prelim CPI expanded by 0.3 percent in current month
 Japan’s Prelim Industrial Production dropped to 0.3 percent in April
 French Consumer Spending plunged by 0.1 percent in April
Indian Rupee retreated from one week high and declined by 13 paise to
end at 67.16 against the US dollar on Monday. The currency had depreci-
ated on account of fresh dollar demand from importers. Further, strength
in the dollar index on estimates of hike in interest rates by the Federal Re-
serve in near future kept pressure on the currency. However, sharp down-
side in the currency was cushioned due to expectations of strong capital
inflows coupled with upside movement in the domestic market senti-
ments. FIIs remained net buyers after recent selling and bought shares
worth a net Rs 1,453.67 crore during the last week. Indian Rupee moved in
the range of 67.03 to 67.37 in Monday’s trading session.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee maintained its firmness against the pound sterling and finished at 98.12 from 98.19 and
also edged up against the euro to settle at 74.82 compared to 74.85 last weekend. The home unit recovered sharply against
the yen to end at 60.46 per 100 yens from 61.12 previously.
US Dollar Index gained around 0.23 percent in Monday’s trading session due to estimates of hike in interest rates by the Feder-
al Reserve in near future. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped due to rise in risk appetite in global market senti-
ments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, less volatility was observed as US markets were
closed yesterday on the eve of Memorial Day holiday.
Euro against dollar rose around 0.35 percent on Monday on account of upbeat global market sentiments. However, sharp up-
side in the currency prevented due to unfavourable economic data from the region along with stronger dollar index.
German Import Prices declined by 0.1 percent in April as against a rise of 0.7 percent in March. French Consumer Spending
plunged by 0.1 percent in April from a previous gain of 1.1 percent a month ago. Spanish Flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell
by 1 percent in May with respect to drop of 1.1 percent in April. German Prelim CPI expanded by 0.3 percent in current month
when compared to fall of 0.4 percent in April.
The Sterling Pound rose marginally around 0.1 percent in Monday’s trade on account of upbeat global market sentiments.
However, strength in the dollar index capped sharp rise in the currency.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.1 percent in Monday’s trade due to rise in risk appetite in global market
sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Japan’s Household Spending declined by 0.4 percent
in April as against a fall of 5.3 percent in March. Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 3.2 percent in the month of
April. Prelim Industrial Production dropped to 0.3 percent in April from rise of 3.8 percent a month ago.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 95.73 95.55 0.18 0.19
USD/INR(Spot) 67.18 67.03 0.15 0.22
USD/INR(NseJune) 67.52 67.36 0.16 0.24
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.84 74.49 0.35 0.47
EUR/INR(NseJune) 75.32 75.38 (0.06) (0.08)
GBP/INR(Spot) 98.18 98.03 0.15 0.15
GBP/INR(NseJune) 98.62 98.71 (0.09) (0.09)
JPY/INR(NseJune) 60.82 61.45 (0.63) (1.04)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The JPYINR price has given breakdown of its rising trend line
at 61.30 levels on 4 hourly chart. Prices have been facing re-
sistance of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels form its previous
down move of 63 to 61levels.
However , Pair has been trading above its 50 hourly exponen-
tial moving average which suggest short term trend remains
weak.
On 4 hourly chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved be-
low its 45 levels, which gives negative confirmation to the
prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative crossover
on 4 hourly chart, which indicates short term trend remains
bearish.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 60.50 levels
in few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has been moving in its rising channel formation
from past few weeks and price has taken support of its lower
band of channel pattern at 67 levels on 4 hourly chart.
Moreover, price have been trading above of its 21 four hourly
exponential moving average which suggest near term trend
remains up. So any dips in the prices towards 67.05 level,
used as buying opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved above 45 levels on 4
hourly chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given positive crossover and
trading above its single line on 4 hourly chart, which gives
positive confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 67.80 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
31st
May’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.19 67.38 67.45 67.57 67.64 67.76 67.95
JPYINR 60.16 60.52 60.67 60.88 61.03 61.24 61.60

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
31st
May’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The pair has been trading in ascending triangle pattern and
taken support of its lower band of pattern at 75.10 levels on
4 hourly chart. On the other hand, Pair has been trading
above its 21 hourly exponential moving average which indi-
cates that trend is remains positive.
The pair has taken support of its 38.20% Fibonacci retrace-
ment levels on hourly chart form its previous rally of 74 to 77
levels.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading above 40 lev-
els on 4 hourly chart which gives the signs of bullishness to
the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on daily chart which support our bullish view on
the pair.
Technical View:
The prices have been moving in rising wedge formation form
past few days and price has faced resistance of its upper
band of wedge pattern at 99.10 levels on 4 hourly chart.
Moreover, price has formed evening star candle stick
pattern on 4 hourly chart which gives negative confirmation
to the prices.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 hourly
exponential moving average which indicates that medium
term trend is remains bearish.
A momentum oscillator RSI has given negative divergence
on 4 hourly chart 58 levels which gives the sign of bearish-
ness to the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on 4 hourly chart which support our bullish view
on the pair.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 97.95 98.33 98.48 98.71 98.86 99.09 99.47
EURINR 74.63 74.95 75.13 75.27 75.45 75.59 75.91

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
31.05.16 5:00am Household Spending y/y -5.3% -1.0% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; JPYINR
31.05.16 11:30am German Retail Sales m/m -1.1% 1.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
31.05.16 1:25pm German Unemployment Change -16K -4K Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
31.05.16 1:30pm M3 Money Supply y/y 5.0% 5.0% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
31.05.16 2:30pm CPI Flash Estimate y/y -0.2% -0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
31.05.16 2:30pm Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.7% 0.8% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
31.05.16 6:00pm Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.1% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
31.05.16 6:00pm Personal Spending m/m 0.1% 0.6% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
31.05.16 7:15pm Chicago PMI 50.4 50.8 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
31.05.16 7:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 94.2 96.1 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
31st
May’2016

5. Currency Highlights
31st
May’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.05.31 08:33:14 +05'30'