#ChoiceBroking #Currencyreports : Indian Rupee appreciated around 11 paise to 67.04 in Thursday’s trade

1. Currency Highlights
29th
July’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee appreciated around 11 paise to 67.04 in Thursday’s trade
 US Unemployment Claims surged to 266,000 for the w/e on 22nd
Jul’16
 German Unemployment Change plunged by 7,000 in the last month
 UK’s Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) rose to 0.5 percent in July
 Japan’s Retail Sales plunged by 1.4 percent in the previous month
Indian Rupee continued with its appreciation trend and gained around 11
paise to end at 67.04 against the US dollar on Thursday. The currency ap-
preciated on account of selling of dollars from exporters and banks. Fur-
ther, constant inflow of foreign funds led to positive movement in the cur-
rency. Additionally, upbeat domestic market sentiments continued with
upside trend in the Indian Rupee. Moreover, Union cabinet approved key
changes to the Constitution Amendment Bill for the Goods and Services
Tax (GST) which saw a rise in the currency. However, month end dollar
demand from importers prevented further rise in the currency. Investors
remained cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India meeting on 9th
Aug’16 in which the central bank is estimated to maintain the status quo.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.9975 to 67.1050 in Thursday’s trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed
reference rate for the dollar was seen at 67.05 and Euro stood at 74.36 in Thursday’s trade.
US Dollar Index fell around 0.4 percent in Thursday’s trading session after US Federal Reserve kept the interest rates un-
changed in its meeting on Wednesday. Further, unfavourable economic data from the country kept pressure on the currency.
Moreover, rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. US Unem-
ployment Claims surged by 14,000 to 266,000 for the week ending on 22nd
Jul’16 from 252,000 in prior week.
Euro against dollar rose around 0.22 percent on Thursday on account of weakness in the dollar index. Further, upbeat global
market sentiments along with favourable economic data from the region saw a positive movement in the currency. Spanish
Unemployment Rate fell to 20 percent in Q2 of 2016 from 21 percent in previous quarter. German Unemployment Change
plunged by 7,000 in June as against a previous drop of 6,000 a month ago.
The Sterling Pound declined around 0.45 percent in Thursday’s trade due to weak market sentiments in early part of the trade.
However, weakness in the dollar index cushioned sharp fall in the currency. UK’s Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) rose to
0.5 percent in July as against a rise of 0.2 percent in June.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.5 percent in Thursday’s trading session on account of rise in risk aver-
sion in global market sentiments in early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. How-
ever, sharp upside was capped after the central bank announced that it will be declaring an extra stimulus of $254 billion (28
trillion Yen) in its meeting today. Japan’s Household Spending declined by 2.2 percent in June as against a drop of 1.1 percent
in May. Tokyo Core CPI fell by 0.4 percent in July from an earlier drop of 0.5 percent in June. Unemployment Rate plunged to
3.1 percent in June as compared to 3.2 percent a month ago. Retail Sales plunged by 1.4 percent in June with respect to fall of
2.1 percent in May. Prelim Industrial Production gained by 1.9 percent in June compared to negative 2.6 percent in May.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 96.5 97.04 (0.54) (0.56)
USD/INR(Spot) 67.09 67.07 0.02 0.03
USD/INR(NseAug) 67.41 67.51 (0.10) (0.15)
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.39 74.23 0.16 0.22
EUR/INR(NseAug 74.77 74.29 0.48 0.64
GBP/INR(Spot) 88.33 88.67 (0.34) (0.38)
GBP/INR(NseAug) 88.79 88.51 0.28 0.32
JPY/INR(NseAug) 64.38 64.00 0.38 0.59
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The pair has been trading in rising channel pattern and price
has taken support of its lower band of channel pattern at
63.40 levels on daily chart. Price has formed bullish inverted
hammer candle stick pattern with appealing volumes which is
bullish reversal pattern.
In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading above its
100 daily exponential moving average which gives the bullish
confirmation to the prices.
On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved above
40 levels, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive sign on 4
hourly chart, which indicates short term trend remains bull-
ish.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 64.80 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The prices have been trading in rising channel pattern form
past few weeks and taking support of its lower band of chan-
nel pattern at 67.10 levels on daily chart. In hourly chart,
price has formed bullish harami candle stick pattern.
Moreover, price have been trading above its 25 hourly expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term trend is up.
So any dip in the prices towards 67.15 level, used as buying
opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved above 45 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given positive sign on daily
chart, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 67.80 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
29th
July’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.03 67.21 67.31 67.39 67.49 67.57 67.75
JPYINR 63.61 63.97 64.17 64.33 64.53 64.69 65.05

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
29th
July’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has given breakdown of its falling channel pattern
at 74 levels on daily chart. On daily chart, price has given
breakdown of its rising trend line pattern 74.50 levels.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 50 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that trend is
remains down.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 40 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bearishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 73.90
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its failing channel
pattern at 89.80 levels. The price has shown breakdown of its
horizontal trend line at 89.60 levels on daily chart. Price has
been facing resistance of its falling trend line at 88.50 levels
on daily 88.70 daily chart.
The price has formed bearish candle on daily with appalling
volumes which indicates further down side movement.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved below at 40 levels
on hourly chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
sign on hourly chart which support our bearish view on the
pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 87.80
levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 87.95 88.43 88.62 88.91 89.10 89.39 89.87
EURINR 73.88 74.31 74.54 74.74 74.97 75.17 75.60

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
29.07.16 5:00AM Household Spending y/y -1.1% -0.4% Actual > Forecast = Good for cur-
rency; JPYINR
29.07.16 5:00AM Tokyo Core CPI y/y -0.5% -0.4% Actual > Forecast = Good for cur-
rency; JPYINR
29.07.16 5:20AM Retail Sales y/y -2.1% -1.2% Actual > Forecast = Good for cur-
rency; JPYINR
29.07.16 Tentative Monetary Policy Statement
29.07.16 10:30AM BOJ Outlook Report
29.07.16 11:30AM German Retail Sales m/m 0.9% 0.0% Actual > Forecast = Good for cur-
rency; EURINR
29.07.16 Tentative BOJ Press Conference
29.07.16 12:30PM Spanish Flash CPI y/y -0.8% -0.5% Actual > Forecast = Good for cur-
rency; EURINR
29.07.16 12:30PM Spanish Flash GDP q/q 0.8% 0.7% Actual > Forecast = Good for cur-
rency; EURINR
29.07.16 2:00PM Net Lending to Individuals m/m 4.3B 4.2B Actual > Forecast = Good for cur-
rency; GBPINR
29.07.16 2:30PM CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.1% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for cur-
rency; EURINR
29.07.16 2:30PM Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.9% 0.9% Actual > Forecast = Good for cur-
rency; EURINR
29.07.16 2:30PM Prelim Flash GDP q/q 0.6% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good for cur-
rency; EURINR
29.07.16 6:00PM Advance GDP q/q 1.1% 2.6% Actual < Forecast = Good for curren-
cy; USDINR
29.07.16 6:00PM Advance GDP Price Index q/q 0.4% 1.9% Actual < Forecast = Good for curren-
cy; USDINR
29.07.16 7:15PM Chicago PMI 56.8 54.3 Actual < Forecast = Good for curren-
cy; USDINR
29.07.16 7:30PM Revised UoM Consumer Senti-
ment
89.5 90.2 Actual < Forecast = Good for curren-
cy; USDINR
29th
July’2016

5. Currency Highlights
29th
July’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd,
ou=Research Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com,
c=IN
Date: 2016.07.29 08:38:35 +05'30'