The document provides an overview of currency movements and economic indicators on June 30th, including the Indian rupee gaining against the US dollar, a plunge in pending US home sales, and a drop in Spanish inflation, and outlines technical analyses and key economic data that may impact currencies.

1. Currency Highlights
30th
June’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee gained by 27 paise to 67.68 in Wednesday’s trade
 US Pending Home Sales plunged by 3.7 percent in last month
 Spanish Flash CPI dropped by 0.8 percent in the month of June
 UK’s Net Lending to Individuals was at 4.3 billion Pounds in May
 Japan’s Prelim Industrial Production fell by 2.3 percent in May
Indian Rupee recovered from its low and gained by 27 paise to end at
67.68 against the US dollar on Wednesday. The currency appreciated on
account of selling of dollars from exporters and banks. Further, upbeat
domestic market sentiments led to upside in the currency. Indian Rupee
moved in the range of 67.6050 to 67.85 in Wednesday’s trading session.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen
at 67.7443 and Euro stood at 75.0200 in yesterday’s trade. In cross-
currency trades, the rupee dropped further against the pound sterling to
finish at 90.90 from 90.76 yesterday and but recovered against the euro to
settle at 74.96 from 75.32. The domestic currency also moved up further
against the Japanese yen to 65.97 per 100 yen from 66.40 yesterday.
US Dollar Index plunged around 0.66 percent in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market senti-
ments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavourable economic data from the country
led to downside movement in the currency.
US Core PCE Price Index unchanged at 0.2 percent in May. Personal Spending fell by 0.4 percent in May as against a rise of 1.1
percent in April. Personal Income fell to 0.2 percent in last month from 0.5 percent in April. Pending Home Sales plunged by
3.7 percent in May with respect to rise of 3.9 percent a month ago.
Euro against dollar rose around 0.51 percent on Wednesday on account of weakness in the dollar index. Additionally, upbeat
global market sentiments continued with positive movement in the currency. However, sharp rise in the currency was prevent-
ed due to unfavourable economic data from the region. GfK German Consumer Climate grew by 0.3 points to 10.1-mark in
June as against a rise of 9.8-level in May.Spanish Flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped by 0.8 percent in June from a previ-
ous fall of 1 percent in May.
The Sterling Pound surged around 0.8 percent in Wednesday’s trade due to weaker dollar. Further, upbeat market sentiments
led to positive movement in the currency. However, sharp rise in the currency was capped due to unfavourable economic data
along with Britain deciding to move away from the European Union in the last week. UK’s Nationwide House Price Index (HPI)
unchanged at 0.2 percent in the current month. Net Lending to Individuals was at 4.3 billion Pounds in May as against 1.6 bil-
lion Pounds in April.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated marginally in Wednesday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global
market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Japan’s Prelim Industrial Production declined
by 2.3 percent in May from a rise of 0.5 percent in April.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 96.01 96.19 (0.18) (0.19)
USD/INR(Spot) 67.64 67.71 (0.07) (0.10)
USD/INR(NseJuly) 67.93 68.28 (0.35) (0.52)
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.89 74.99 (0.10) (0.13)
EUR/INR(NseJuly) 75.34 75.70 (0.36) (0.48)
GBP/INR(Spot) 90.65 90.37 0.28 0.31
GBP/INR(NseJuly) 91.27 91.23 0.04 0.04
JPY/INR(NseJuly) 66.13 66.70 (0.57) (0.86)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The pair has shown breakout of its rising wedge pattern at
65.50 levels on daily chart. The price has given breakout of its
consolidation range of 62.50 to 65 levels on daily chart, which
indicates further upside momentum in the prices.
In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading above its
21 daily exponential moving average which gives the positive
confirmation to the prices.
On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has remained above
60 levels, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover
on daily chart, which indicates short term trend remains bull-
ish.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 67 levels in
few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has been trading in its rising channel formation
from past few months and price has taken support of its low-
er band at 67.50 levels on daily chart. Price has shown
breakout of its horizontal trend line at 67.80 levels on daily
chart.
Moreover, price have been trading above its 21 daily expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term remains up.
So any dips in the prices towards 68.60 level, used as buying
opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has remained above 50 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given positive crossover on
daily chart, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 68.40 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
30th
June’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 67.51 67.76 67.84 68.01 68.09 68.26 68.51
JPYINR 65.19 65.75 65.95 66.31 66.51 66.87 67.43

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
30th
June’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its rising channel pattern
at 75.50 levels on daily chart. The pair has given breakdown
of its symmetrical triangle pattern at 76.45 levels on daily
chart with bolstering volumes.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that trend is
remains down.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 45 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bearishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 74.50
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its horizontal channel
pattern at 94 levels on daily chart. So any rally in the prices
towards 92 level, used as selling opportunity.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 50 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that short term
trend is remains bearish.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved below 45 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 90
levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 90.01 90.57 90.92 91.13 91.48 91.69 92.25
EURINR 74.67 75.00 75.17 75.33 75.50 75.66 75.99

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
30.06.16 2:00am Bank Stress Test Results
30.06.16 11:30am German Retail Sales m/m -0.9% 0.7% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
30.06.16 1:25pm German Unemployment Change -11K -5K Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
30.06.16 2:00pm Current Account -32.7B -27.3B Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
30.06.16 2:00pm Final GDP q/q 0.4% 0.4% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
30.06.16 2:30pm CPI Flash Estimate y/y -0.1% 0.0% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
30.06.16 2:30pm Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 0.8% 0.8% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
30.06.16 5:00pm ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
Accounts
30.06.16 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 259K 267K Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
30.06.16 7:15pm Chicago PMI 49.3 50.6 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
30.06.16 11:00pm FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
30th
June’2016

5. Currency Highlights
30th
June’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.06.30 08:46:20 +05'30'