#ChoiceBroking #Currencyhighlights - India’s WPI Inflation jumped to 1.62 percent in the last month

1. Currency Highlights
15th
July’2016
HighLights:
 India’s WPI Inflation jumped to 1.62 percent in the last month
 US Producer Price Index (PPI) expanded to 0.5 percent in June
 UK’s Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5 percent in current month
Indian Rupee gained for second consecutive day and appreciated around
14 paise to end at 66.91 against the US dollar on Thursday. The currency
appreciated as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to buy local
equity and bonds in the markets. Further, selling of dollar from exporters
and banks led to positive movement in the currency. Additionally, surge in
domestic market sentiments continued with upside activity in the curren-
cy.
However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of rise in
country’s wholesale inflation data. Indian Rupee moved in the range of
66.87 to 67.0375 in Thursday’s trading session. The currency has appreci-
ated around 27 paise or 0.4 percent in last two trading sessions. The Re-
serve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at
66.9136 and Euro stood at 74.3544 in Thursday’s trade.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee moved down further against the pound sterling to finish at 89.51 from 89.00 yesterday and
also dropped against the euro to 74.72 from 74.27. The domestic currency continued to rule firm against the Japanese yen at
63.30 per 100 yens from 64.07 yesterday.
India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation rose to 1.62 percent in June as against a gain of 0.79 percent in May. WPI food
inflation was at 8.18 percent in last month from 7.88 percent in May. WPI fuel inflation plunged by 3.62 percent in June with
respect to fall of 6.14 percent a month ago. WPI manufacturing inflation expanded to 1.17 percent in June when compared to
0.91 percent in May.
US Dollar Index declined around 0.1 percent in Thursday‘s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market senti-
ments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. However, favourable economic data from the country
cushioned sharp fall in the currency. US Producer Price Index (PPI) grew to 0.5 percent in June as against a rise of 0.4 percent
in May. Unemployment Claims unchanged at 254,000 for the week ending on 8th
Jul’16. Core PPI expanded by 0.4 percent in
last month from 0.3 percent in May.
Euro against dollar rose around 0.15 percent on Thursday on account of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, weakness
in the dollar index led to upside in the currency.
The Sterling Pound surged by more than 1.5 percent in Thursday’s trade due to Bank of England keeping the interest rates un-
changed along with members voting for not change in the interest rates. Further, weaker dollar coupled with upbeat global
market sentiments led to upside movement in the currency. UK’s Official Bank Rate unchanged at 0.5 percent in July. Asset
Purchase Facility remained unchanged at 375 billion Pounds in the current month.
The Japanese Yen against dollar depreciated around 0.6 percent in Thursday’s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in
global market sentiments which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 96.33 96.36 (0.03) (0.03)
USD/INR(Spot) 66.93 67.01 (0.08) (0.12)
USD/INR(NseJuly) 67.01 67.18 (0.17) (0.25)
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.29 74.35 (0.06) (0.08)
EUR/INR(NseJuly) 74.41 74.45 (0.04) (0.05)
GBP/INR(Spot) 88.60 88.02 0.58 0.65
GBP/INR(NseJuly) 88.73 89.22 (0.49) (0.55)
JPY/INR(NseJuly) 74.41 74.45 (0.04) (0.05)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The pair have been trading in rising channel pattern and pric-
es have been facing resistance of its upper band of channel
pattern 67.60 levels on daily chart.
In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading below its
15 hourly exponential moving average which gives the nega-
tive confirmation to the prices.
On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has remained above
its overbought zone 70 levels, which gives negative confirma-
tion to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative sign on
daily chart, which indicates short term trend remains bearish.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 63 levels in
few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has been trading in its rising channel formation
from past few months and price has faced resistance of its
upper band at 68.10 levels on daily chart. Price has faced re-
sistance of its horizontal trend line at 68 levels on daily.
Moreover, price have been trading below its 50 daily expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term remains
down. So any rally in the prices towards 67.20 level, used as
selling opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved below 60 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given negative crossover on
daily chart, which gives negative confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 66.60 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
15th
July’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.58 66.82 66.91 67.06 67.15 67.30 67.54
JPYINR 61.77 62.70 63.09 63.63 64.02 64.56 65.49

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
15th
July’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has shown breakout of its symmetrical triangle
patter at 75.50 levels on daily chart. The price has shown
breakdown of its rising channel pattern at 75.50 levels on
daily chart.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that trend is
remains down.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 45 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bearishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 73.90
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The price has formed bullish hammer candle stick pattern on
daily which is bullish pattern. The price has completed bullish
AB=CD harmonic pattern on daily chart 87.20 levels the coor-
dinates of which are as follows:
Technical Parameter: AB of the leg from 106 to 92,BC of the
leg completed 101 at (i.e.50% of AB leg.) CD of the leg com-
pleted to 87.20 levels (i.e. near 200% Fibonacci Projection of
BC leg). So any dips in the prices towards 87.50 level, used as
buying opportunity. The price has taken support of its falling
trend line at 87.30 levels on daily chart.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved in oversold zone at
27 levels on daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
sign on daily chart which support our bullish view on the
pair.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 87.65 88.18 88.47 88.71 89.00 89.24 89.77
EURINR 73.42 73.98 74.20 74.54 74.76 75.10 75.66

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
15.07.16 7:30am GDP q/y 6.7% 6.6% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; Yuan
15.07.16 7:30am Industrial Production y/y 6.0% 5.9% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; Yuan
15.07.16 7:30am Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 9.6% 9.4% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; Yuan
15.07.16 7:30am NBS Press Conference
15.07.16 2:30pm Final CPI y/y 0.1% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
15.07.16 5:30pm BOE Gov Carney Speaks
15.07.16 6:00pm CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
15.07.16 6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
15.07.16 6:00pm Core Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 0.4% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
15.07.16 6:00pm Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
15.07.16 6:00pm Empire State Manufacturing
Index
6.0 5.1 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
15.07.16 6:00pm Capacity Utilization Rate 74.9% 75.2% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
15.07.16 6:00pm Industrial Production m/m -0.4% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
15.07.16 7:30pm Prelim UoM Consumer Senti-
ment
93.5 93.7 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
15th
July’2016

5. Currency Highlights
15th
July’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd,
ou=Research Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com,
c=IN
Date: 2016.07.15 08:38:39 +05'30'