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Nestle
1. Event Update | FMCG
August 10, 2010
Nestle NEUTRAL
CMP Rs2,805
Target Price -
Nestle arranged its first analyst meet in CY2010 to discuss its 1HCY2010 Investment Period -
performance and future outlook. We present the key takeaways:
Stock Info
Strong volume growth, exports rebound: For 1HCY2010, Nestle registered Sector FMCG
robust top-line growth of 19% yoy driven by 17.9% yoy volume growth in Market Cap (Rs cr) 27,041
domestic business led by Maggi (26% yoy) and chocolates (25% yoy). Export
Beta 0.1
volumes grew 29% yoy driven by pick-up in sales to Russia (36% yoy growth
in 2QCY2010 - an anomaly due to advancement of shipments). 52 Week High / Low 3,300/2,082
Maggi continues ~20%+ growth rate, competition manageable: Prepared Avg. Daily Volume 23,418
dishes (Maggi) registered a strong ~26% yoy volume growth despite the high
Face Value (Rs) 10
base and rising competition (Horlick Foodles and Knorr Soupy Noodles) aided
by well-positioned variants (Maggi Atta and Maggi Pazzta) and strong focus BSE Sensex 18,220
on LUP and PPP strategy. Nifty 5,461
Input cost inflation and staggered price hikes hurt margins: During
Reuters Code NEST.BO
2QCY2010, overall raw material cost index for Nestle rose ~10% yoy driven
by 26% and 39% yoy rise in the prices of milk and wheat, while the palm oil Bloomberg Code NEST@IN
and green coffee prices declined ~17-18% yoy. Going ahead, management
expects good monsoons and improved collections at the Moga factory to help
control inflation in the milk prices, while correction in the sugar prices is likely Shareholding Pattern (%)
to reflect in yoy declines by 4QCY2010. However, rising prices of green
Promoters 61.9
coffee and palm oil, up 3% and 17% yoy respectively, post 2QCY2010 poses
a risk. MF / Banks / Indian Fls 11.1
Investments to rise, guides for aggressive capex: Driven by robust volume FII / NRIs /
10.9
growth, Nestle has guided for aggressive capex plans and has already OCBs
committed ~Rs360cr as of 1HCY2010 (~Rs70cr for 1HCY2009). We model Indian Public / Others 16.1
in ~Rs425cr capex for CY2010.
Outlook and Valuation: While we continue to like Nestlé’s long-term growth story
(best play on food processing theme in India), we believe that Nestlé’s premium Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
(100%) valuations to the Sensex (5yr average at ~80%) is at risk to negative Sensex 5.1 21.4 22.5
surprises, which could emerge from: 1) gross margin pressures due to rising input Nestle 0.9 29.1 127.5
costs, 2) competition in high-growth noodles category from HUL and GSKCHL,
and 3) up-tick in ad spends. Hence, we recommend Neutral view on the stock
(post weak 2QCY2010 result, Nestlé’s stock has corrected ~7%) with a fair value
of Rs2,804 (based on P/E multiple of 29x FY2012E earnings, and in line with its
5-year historical average valuations).
Key Financials
Y/E Dec (Rs cr) CY2009 CY2010 CY2011E CY2012E
Net Sales 4,324 5,129 6,077 7,080
% chg 23.4 18.6 18.5 16.5
Net Profit 534 655 768 932 Anand Shah
% chg 29.1 22.6 17.2 21.4 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 334
EBITDA (%) 20.0 20.2 19.0 19.2 anand.shah@angeltrade.com
EPS (Rs) 55.4 67.9 79.6 96.7
P/E (x) 50.6 41.3 35.2 29.0 Chitrangda Kapur
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 323
P/BV (x) 57.1 46.5 34.4 29.1
chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
RoE (%) 119.8 124.2 112.2 108.7
RoCE (%) 160.7 164.3 142.9 136.6
Sreekanth P.V.S
EV/Sales (x) 6.2 5.2 4.4 3.8 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 331
EV/EBITDA (x) 31.1 26.0 23.3 19.7 sreekanth.s@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
2. Nestle| Event Update
Top-line growth driven by volumes, price-led growth missing
For 1HCY2010, Nestle registered robust overall top-line growth of 19% yoy driven
largely by the 17.9% yoy volume growth in the domestic business and sharp rebound
in export volumes, which grew 29.3% yoy. However, price-led growth was clearly
missing (under ~1% yoy), as Nestle has taken only limited/staggered price increases
in the recent quarters to protect volume growth.
Exhibit 1: Strong domestic volumes, exports rebound Exhibit 2: ~25%+ yoy volume growth across categories
32.0 29.3 33.0 27.1 25.8 25.3
27.0 23.0
22.0 18.3 17.9
13.0 7.1 6.9
17.0
2.7 0.5
(%)
12.0 3.0
(%)
7.0
0.7 0.5 (7.0)
2.0
(3.0) (17.0) (13.6)
(0.7)
Total Domestic Net Exports Milk Products Beverages Prepared Chocolates
Sales Dishes
Volume growth Realisation growth Volume growth Realisation growth
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: numbers for 1HCY2010 Source: Company, Angel Research
Exports rebound led on higher beverage exports to Russia
Beverage volumes grew sharply by 27.1% yoy driven by the steep rebound in export
volumes (beverages constituted ~70% of exports), which have picked up due to
higher sales to Russia (accounts for ~43% of exports). However, management
indicated that the 36% yoy growth in export sales in 2QCY2010 was an anomaly on
account of advancement of shipments and not likely to repeat.
Exhibit 3: Pick up in sales to Russia drives exports Exhibit 4: Beverages constitute ~70% of exports
America Africa Prepered
Chocolates
6% 8% South Asia Dishes
3%
27% Milk 7%
Asia-
Products
Ocenia
20%
9%
Europe
7%
Russia Beverages
43% 70%
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Growth in Maggi continues unabated, chocolates regain ground
Volume growth was strong across categories with three out of four categories
registering ~25%+ yoy growth. While milk products (contribute ~46% to sales)
registered steady 7% yoy volume growth, prepared dishes registered a strong ~26%
yoy volume growth despite the high base and rising competition (Horlick Foodles
from GSK Consumer and Knorr Soupy Noodles from HUL) aided by well-positioned
variants (Maggi Atta and Maggi Pazzta are doing well) and strong focus on low-unit
price (LUP) packs and popularly positioned products (PPP). Management has also
attributed the high growth in Maggi to higher penetration.
August 10, 2010 2
3. Nestle| Event Update
Exhibit 5: Milk products post steady growth Exhibit 6: Maggi set for another year of ~20%+ growth
18 16 35 30
16 30 25 26
13 23
14 12 25 20 22
12 10 18
20
10 8 8 15
7 7 7
(%)
(%)
8 6
5 5 6 10 5
6 4 4 3 3 3
3 5
4
2 -
- (5) (1)
CY06
CY07
CY08
CY09
1HCY10
CY10E
CY11E
CY06
CY07
CY08
CY09
1HCY10
CY10E
CY11E
Volume Growth Realisation Growth Volume Growth Realisation Growth
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Noodles market set for exciting times; Nestle well entrenched
Nestlé’s management believes the Rs1,150cr noodles market growing at ~20% per
annum is set for acceleration in demand given entry of new players driving higher ad
spends in the segment. Moreover, the focus in the category is clearly shifting towards
healthy snacking, which should help aid market expansion. We believe that Nestle is
well-entrenched to gain from this burgeoning demand environment given: 1) strong
brand equity of Maggi, 2) better distribution reach particularly in the rural areas via
the Rs5 price pack, 3) strong portfolio with healthy variants like Maggi Atta Noodles
and recently launched Multigrainz noodles, and 4) successful extension into related
categories like pasta through Maggi Pazzta.
Management to increase focus on chocolates and confectionaries
Chocolates registered robust ~25% yoy growth in volumes aided by market share
gains (100bp yoy, currently at ~25%) and better distribution reach (retail outlets
increased to 1.2mn from 1.05mn a year ago).
Exhibit 7: Beverages rebound led by higher exports Exhibit 8: Volume off-take in chocolates set to improve
30 27 30 25
20
20 25
14 14 20
11 11 20 18
8 16
10 4 4 14
0 15 12
10
(%)
(%)
- 10 6
6
(3) 2 4 3
(10) 5 1 2
(9) (7)
(14) -
(20)
CY06
CY07
CY08
CY09
1HCY10
CY10E
CY11E
CY06
CY07
CY08
CY09
1HCY10
CY10E
CY11E
Volume Growth Realisation Growth Volume Growth Realisation Growth
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Management highlighted its renewed focus on this category and shared some
forthcoming initiatives to drive growth:
Avoid head-on competition, focus on niche sub-segments: Over the years,
Nestle has developed strong positioning in two smaller sub-segments of
chocolates, viz. white and wafers. Nestle, being a distant second in chocolates to
Cadbury, has decided to avoid head-on competition and enhance focus on
products already registering strong growth.
August 10, 2010 3
4. Nestle| Event Update
Shift focus away from low-price points: While Nestlé’s low-price point SKUs at
Re1 and Rs2 have done exceedingly well in driving volumes, management has
now decided to shift focus towards higher price points of Rs5 and Rs10 to
improve margins. In line with this strategy, Nestle has launched several new
products, viz. MilkyBar at Rs5, Munch at Rs10 and 3-finger Kit-Kat at Rs10.
Focus to shift on a portfolio of brands, Bar One re-launched: Driven by higher
frequency of chocolate consumption and increasing experimentation with
different brands by consumers, Nestle has decided to increase its focus as a
portfolio of chocolate brands, viz. Kit-Kat, Munch, MilkyBar and Bar One. In line
with this strategy, Nestle has re-launched Bar One with a new formulation and
brand campaign (after a five-year gap).
Input cost inflation and staggered price hikes hurt margins
During 2QCY2010, Nestle’s overall raw material cost index increased ~10% yoy
driven by the 26%, 13%, 39% and 5% yoy rise in the prices of fresh milk, skimmed
milk powder, sugar and wheat respectively, while the prices of palm oil and green
coffee declined 18% and 17% yoy, respectively. Management’s strong focus on
maintaining high volume growth across categories leading to limited price hikes
(price-led growth in the last three quarters stood at 1%, 2% and 5%, respectively)
coupled with high input cost inflation led to a 263bp and 138bp yoy contraction in
gross margins during 1QCY2010 and 2QCY2010, respectively.
Exhibit 9: Milk constitutes ~42% of input costs Exhibit 10: Three quarters of gross margin contraction
16.0 300
Others Milk 14.0 200
24% 34%
12.0
10.0 100
(bp)
(%)
Sugar 8.0 -
7% 6.0 (100)
Skimmed 4.0
Milk (200)
2.0
Wheat Powder
- (300)
Flour 8%
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
9% Vegetable Green
Oil Coffee
8% 10% chg in gross margin (RHS) rise in cost index (LHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Going ahead, management expects good monsoons and improved collections at its
Moga factory to help control inflation in the milk prices (key raw material accounting
for ~34% of input costs), while correction in the sugar prices is likely to reflect in yoy
declines by 4QCY2010. However, rising prices of green coffee and palm oil, up 3%
and 17% yoy respectively, post 2QCY2010 will negate any significant gains from
correction in other inputs. Moreover, management has indicated that it is willing to
compromise on near-term margins to maintain high volume growth and ensure
long-term profitability via staggered price hikes.
While we expect the quantum of input cost pressures for Nestle to reduce in
2HCY2010 driven by good monsoons and lower inflation in milk (milk prices remain
the key monitorable, we model in ~17% rise for CY2010) and sugar, we expect the
company’s raw material cost index to rise ~6-10% yoy in 2HCY2010 due to low
base and inflation in coffee and palm oil prices. Hence, we have modeled in a gross
margin contraction of 180bp yoy for CY2010 (200bp contraction in 1HCY2010).
August 10, 2010 4
11. Nestle| Event Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: Research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Nestle
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
August 10, 2010 11
12. Nestle| Event Update
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Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
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August 10, 2010 12