BHEL reported strong results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, with revenues growing 16% and profits growing 42% over the same quarter last year. The bottom line growth was driven by lower raw material costs and improved operating efficiencies. While revenue growth was moderate, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew substantially due to a 350 basis point expansion in operating margins. Management has guided that order inflows for the full fiscal year will be between Rs58,000-60,000 crore and the order backlog remains robust at Rs148,000 crore as of the end of the quarter. However, competition is increasing in the power equipment market, which could limit BHEL's ability
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BHEL posts 42% rise in Q1 PAT on lower costs
1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | Capital Goods
July 27, 2010
BHEL NEUTRAL
CMP Rs2,448
Performance Highlights Target Price -
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 %chg (yoy) 4QFY10 %chg (qoq) Investment Period -
Net Sales 6,480 5,597 16 13,559 (52)
EBITDA 844 517 63 2,487 (66) Stock Info
EBITDA margin (%) 13.0 9.2 18.3 Sector Capital Goods
PAT 668 471 42 1,910 (65) Market Cap (Rs cr) 119,847
Beta 0.7
BHEL reported strong 1QFY2011 performance, with revenues and PAT registering
52 Week High / Low 2,585/2,105
a yoy growth of 16% and 42%, respectively. Though the company posted a
Avg. Daily Volume 98,972
modest 16% yoy increase in top-line, it registered a wider-than-expected
Face Value (Rs) 10
expansion in operating margin largely aided by lower raw material costs.
Management has guided order inflows for FY2011 to be in the region of BSE Sensex 18,078
Rs58,000 – 60,000cr and has also indicated muted revenue growth going Nifty 5,431
forward on a high base. We maintain our Neutral view on the stock. Reuters Code BHEL.BO
Margin expansion drives bottom-line growth: While revenues grew by a mere16% Bloomberg Code BHEL@IN
yoy to Rs6,480cr (Rs5,597cr), EBDITA growth was impressive at 63% yoy to
Rs844cr (Rs517cr), backed by strong margin expansion of 380bp to 13% (9.2%).
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Lower raw material costs coupled with improving operational efficiencies mainly
Promoters 67.7
contributed to the expansion in EBIDTA margins resulting in 42% yoy growth in
bottom-line to Rs668cr, which was slightly above our estimates (Rs645cr). MF / Banks / Indian Fls 15.6
FII / NRIs / OCBs 15
Outlook and Valuation: The Indian power equipment market is undergoing
Indian Public / Others 1.7
structural changes with an increasing preference for fuel-efficient and supercritical
technologies. Given the growth prospects in the domestic power sector, few Indian
companies have set up or have initiated the process of setting up local
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
manufacturing facilities in collaboration with leading international players. As
Sensex 2.2 17.6 18.7
competition intensifies from both the domestic as well as overseas players, we do
not expect BHEL to increase its current market share in the long term. At the CMP BHEL (1.1) 8.2 39.2
of Rs2,448, the stock is quoting at 22.4x FY2011E EPS and at 18.8x FY2012E
EPS. Given the structural long-term concerns, we maintain our Neutral view on
the stock.
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 26,212 32,880 40,095 47,111
% chg 35.8 25.4 21.9 17.5
Adj. Net Profit 3,126 4,311 5,359 6,364
% chg 9.3 37.9 24.3 18.8
EBITDA (%) 13.9 16.9 18.1 18.1
EPS (Rs) 63.9 88.1 109.5 130.0
P/E (x) 36.3 26.3 22.4 18.8
P/BV (x) 8.8 7.1 6.0 4.9
RoE (%) 26.4 29.9 30.0 28.6
RoCE (%) 28.9 33.3 31.8 30.4
EV/Sales (x) 3.9 3.2 2.5 2.1 Hemang Thaker
40403800 – extn: 342
EV/EBITDA (x) 24.8 18.6 12.8 10.6
hemang.thaker@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
2. 1QFY2011 Result Update |BHEL
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 performance
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg 4QFY10 % chg
Net Sales 6,480 5,597 16 13,559 (52)
Raw Material 3,809 3,545 7 8,027 (53)
(% of Net Sales) 58.8 63.3 59.2
Employee Cost 1,338 1,114 20 1,743 (23)
(% of Net Sales) 20.6 19.9 12.9
Other Expenses 489 421 16 1,301 (62)
(% of Net Sales) 7.5 7.5 9.6
Total Expenditure 5,636 5,080 11 11,072 (49)
EBITDA 844 517 63 2,487 (66)
EBITDA (%) 13.0 9.2 18.3
Interest 4 4 18 (78)
Depreciation 127 96 32 165 (23)
Other Income 285 302 (6) 594 (52)
Profit before Tax 998 719 39 2,898 (66)
(% of Net Sales) 15.4 12.8 21.4
Total Tax 330 248 33 989 (67)
(% of PBT) 33 34.5 34.1
Reported PAT 668 471 42 1,910 (65)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Operating efficiency drives bottom line; Net profit up 42%: BHEL posted moderate
revenue growth of 16% for 1QFY2011. The bottom line grew mainly on account of
lower raw-material costs. As a percentage of sales, raw-material costs declined
sharply by 450bp yoy to 58.8% (63.3%) for 1QFY2011. Consequently, operating
margin (EBIT) expanded sharply by 350bp yoy to 11% (7.5%) in 1QFY2011.
(Notably, BHEL has managed raw-material costs at 55–59% of net sales, except for
3QFY2010 and 4QFY2010; however, an uptick in material prices for FY2011 will
brew concerns regarding the company’s profitability). The bottom line grew by 42%
yoy to Rs668cr (Rs471cr) in 1QFY2011, driven by better operating efficiencies and
lower taxation.
Exhibit 2: Raw-material cost as a percentage of net sales
66
64.0
64 63.3
62
59.5 59.2
60 58.5 58.2 58.8
57.3
58
(%)
55.5
56
54
52
50
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 27, 2010 2
3. 1QFY2011 Result Update |BHEL
Exhibit 3: Segment-wise performance
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg 4QFY10 % chg
Revenue
Power 5,400 4,568 18.2 11,155 (52)
Industry 1,476 1,333 10.7 3,149 (53)
Total Revenue 6,876 5,901 16.5 14,304 (52)
EBIT
Power 1070 828 29.2 3,058 (65)
Industry 170 162 4.9 805 (79)
Total EBIT 1240 990 25.3 3,863 (68)
Revenues mix (%)
Power 78.5 77.4
Industry 21.5 22.6
EBIT Margin (%)
Power 19.8 18.1
Industry 11.5 12.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
During the quarter, the power division registered moderate 18.2% yoy
top-line growth to Rs5,400cr (Rs4,568cr). BHEL’s industry division, on the other
hand, continued to be under pressure and registered a sedate growth rate of
10.7% yoy, reaching Rs1,476cr (Rs1,333cr).
OPM of the power division improved during the quarter, increasing by 170bp to
19.8% (18.1%). This was mainly due to lower raw-material costs during the
quarter. However, the industry division’s OPM declined by 70bp yoy to 11.5%
(12.2%) in 1QFY2011.
Exhibit 4: Actual v/s Angel estimates
Particulars (Rs cr) Actual Estimates Var. (%)
Revenue 6,480 6,816 (4.9)
Operating Profit 718 757 (5.2)
PAT 668 645 3.6
EPS (Rs) 13.6 13.2 3.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Conference Call - Key highlights
FY2011 order intake would amount between Rs58,000–60,000cr.
The current delivery time for supercritical projects would be 46–52 months for
660MW capacity and 48–54 months for 800MW capacity.
Capex for 1QFY2011 was about Rs400cr. Management has guided a capex
of Rs1,600cr to augment from 15GW to 20GW of manufacturing capacity.
Management expects to finalise the JV agreement with Toshiba by September
2010.
For wind turbine generation, the company is in the final stages of signing a
collaboration agreement. The company has identified the collaborator, which
will be announced in 4–5 weeks.
July 27, 2010 3
4. 1QFY2011 Result Update |BHEL
Order inflow: The order inflow for 1QFY2011 was lower by 12.7% yoy to
Rs10,824cr, as against Rs12,400cr for 1QFY2010. The power division accounted
for an intake for Rs9,270cr, while the industrial and export segments accounted for
the balance amount. The order book as of June 30, 2010, stood at Rs1,48,000cr.
During 1QFY2011, BHEL secured the single largest Rs6,300cr mega contract for
1,600MW (2x800MW) supercritical thermal power project in Karnataka from
Raichur Power Corporation (RPCL). RPCL is a joint venture (JV) company of
Karnataka Power Corp (KPCL) and BHEL, which has been set up to build, own and
operate thermal power plants with supercritical parameters in Karnataka.
Significantly, this is the first order for a power project bagged by BHEL through a
JV.
Exhibit 5: Quarterly order inflow
25,000
22,614
20,000
15,580 16,000
14,500 14,500 15,107
15,000
(Rs cr)
12,400
10,824
10,000 8,017
5,000
-
1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: Quarterly order backlog
160,000 143,800 148,000
140,000 134,000
124,403 125,800
120,000 113,584 117,000
104,000
100,000 95,000
(Rs cr)
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
-
1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Angel EPS forecast
Year Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Var. (%)
FY2011E 109.5 113.0 (3.5)
FY2012E 130.0 137.0 (5.1)
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 27, 2010 4
5. 1QFY2011 Result Update |BHEL
Investment Arguments
Stronghold in power equipment market: BHEL is the largest supplier of power
equipment in India with a wide product portfolio consisting of boilers, gas turbines,
fabric filters, steam generators, switch gears, among others. The company
primarily caters to power-generating companies by offering steam turbines,
generators, boilers and matching auxiliaries up to 800MW rating, including
supercritical sets of 660/800MW. BHEL has facilities that can go up to 1,000MW
of unit size. BHEL is the only Indian player manufacturing large-size, gas-based
power plant equipment, comprising advanced-class gas turbines of up to 289MW
(ISO) rating for open and combined-cycle operations.
While competition is coming in from various players due to high prospects in the
power sector, BHEL continues to be strong, especially in the boiler turbine
generator (BTG) category, which forms a key part of the power plant. As a fully
integrated power equipment player, BHEL enjoys a strong domestic presence in the
power equipment market.
Well positioned for future: The Indian power sector is likely to witness massive
capacity additions of ~150,000MW over the next decade and BHEL, being the
dominant domestic player, is expected to be the major beneficiary of the unfolding
opportunities in the power equipment space. Of the 80,000MWs of BTG orders
placed during the Eleventh Plan, BHEL’s market share had been ~55%.
Approximately 62,500MW of BTG orders have been placed under the Twelfth Plan
and BHEL has been able to garner ~53% of the same. Orders are yet to be placed
for the balance portion of the Twelfth Plan capacity addition targets and we expect
BHEL to maintain its existing market share going forward. Furthermore, the
company is augmenting its manufacturing capacity from the current 15GW to
20GW, after having introduced new ratings of 150MW, 270MW, 525MW and
600MW in the sub-critical segment and 660MW and 800MW unit sizes in the
supercritical segment.
Strategic tie-ups to enhance competitive edge: The company is taking various
initiatives, including strategic alliances through joint ventures (JV) in the
supercritical technology and technology sourcing domains. To pursue inorganic
growth, tie-ups are being identified in the areas of: a) transmission with a focus on
765kV and 1,200kV segments (JV with Toshiba for transmission products); b)
photovoltaics (PV) with a focus on manufacturing silicon wafers, solar cells,
modules and setting up a green-field PV project, c) nuclear, with a focus on
building special nuclear reactors for which GE-Hitachi has signed an agreement
with NPCIL and BHEL.
Outlook and Valuation: The Indian power equipment market is undergoing
structural changes with an increasing preference for fuel-efficient and supercritical
technologies. Given the growth prospects in the domestic power sector, few Indian
companies have set up or have initiated the process of setting up local
manufacturing facilities in collaboration with leading international players. As
competition intensifies from both the domestic as well as overseas players, we do
not expect BHEL to increase its current market share in the long term. At the CMP
of Rs2,448, the stock is quoting at 22.4x FY2011E EPS and at 18.8x FY2012E EPS.
Given the structural long-term concerns, we maintain our Neutral view on the
stock.
July 27, 2010 5
6. 1QFY2011 Result Update |BHEL
Exhibit 8: Key assumptions
Particulars (%) FY2011E FY2012E
Order Inflow Growth - Power (18) (12)
Order Inflow Growth - Industry 25 25
Order Inflow Growth - Exports 15 15
Order Inflow Growth - Combined (6.3) 1.3
Order Backlog Growth - Combined 9.5 4.5
Order Book Ratios
Order Book/Sales 3.8 3.4
Order Book/Fwd Sales 3.2 3.1
Order Book to Sales (%) 29.0 31.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: One-year forward P/E band
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Aug-04
Aug-09
Jun-05
Jun-10
Jul-07
Dec-02
May-03
Jan-05
Dec-07
May-08
Jan-10
Apr-06
Oct-03
Oct-08
Mar-04
Sep-06
Feb-07
Mar-09
Nov-05
Share Price (Rs) 5x 10x 15x 20x
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10: Premium/Discount to Sensex P/E
110.0
90.0
70.0
50.0
30.0
10.0
(10.0)
(30.0)
(50.0)
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Premium/Discount to Sensex Avg. Historical Premium
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 27, 2010 6
12. 1QFY2011 Result Update |BHEL
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement BHEL
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
July 27, 2010 12