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1QFY2012 Result Update | Automobile
                                                                                                                             July 14, 2011



 Bajaj Auto                                                                                 ACCUMULATE
                                                                                            CMP                                 `1,431
 Performance Highlights                                                                     Target Price                        `1,512
 Y/E March (` cr)          1QFY12      1QFY11      % chg (yoy)    Angel est.      % diff    Investment Period                12 Months
 Net sales                   4,777       3,890            22.8       4,913        (2.8)
                                                                                            Stock Info
 EBITDA                        911         777            17.2         972        (6.3)
                                                                                            Sector                            Automobile
 EBITDA margin (%)             19.1       20.0         (91)bp          19.8      (71)bp
                                                                                            Market Cap (Rs cr)                       41,406
 Reported PAT                  711         590            20.5         734        (3.1)
                                                                                            Beta                                        0.7
 Source: Company, Angel Research
                                                                                            52 Week High / Low               1,665/1,190
 Bajaj Auto (BAL) reported marginally lower-than-expected results as the                    Avg. Daily Volume                       67,322
 company’s performance during 1QFY2012 was negatively impacted by a 1.8%                    Face Value (Rs)                             10
 qoq drop in average net realisation despite price hikes and margin contraction of
                                                                                            BSE Sensex                              18,618
 145bp due to raw-material cost pressures. We revise our FY2012 and FY2013
                                                                                            Nifty                                    5,600
 earnings estimates downward by 4% and 8%, respectively, to factor in the
                                                                                            Reuters Code                         BAJA.BO
 replacement of DEPB scheme by a duty drawback scheme post September 2011.
                                                                                            Bloomberg Code                     BJAUT@IN
 We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock.
 Net sales driven by volume growth; profitability impacted by cost pressures: BAL
 reported slightly lower-than-expected top-line growth of 22.8% yoy (13.7%                  Shareholding Pattern (%)
 qoq) to `4,777cr, driven by a 17.7% yoy (15.3% qoq) jump in volumes.                       Promoters                                 50.0
 The variance was due to lower average net realisation, which declined by                   MF / Banks / Indian Fls                   16.8
 1.8% qoq despite average price hikes of ~2% during the quarter. Two-wheeler                FII / NRIs / OCBs                         16.3
 sales grew by 16.3% yoy, with Pulsar and Discover contributing ~65% of sales.              Indian Public / Others                    16.9
 EBITDA margin came in 71bp below our estimate at 19.1%, registering a fall
 of 91bp yoy (145bp qoq). This was a result of higher raw-material costs,
 which increased by 150bp yoy (210bp qoq). This was the first time in the last              Abs. (%)                  3m       1yr      3yr
 eight quarters when the company’s margin came in below the 20% mark. As a                  Sensex                   (5.5)    3.8     39.7
 result, net profit came in lower than expected at `711cr, registering growth of
                                                                                            Bajaj Auto               2.4     17.1 471.0
 20.5% yoy (5.2% qoq).
 Outlook and valuation: We factor in the replacement of DEPB scheme by a duty
 drawback scheme post September 2011, which will result in export incentives of
 1% as compared to 9% under the DEPB scheme. Hence, we expect a ~175bp
 contraction in operating margins and a ~8% decline in earnings. At `1,431, the
 stock is trading at 14.2x FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate view on
 the stock with a target price of `1,512, valuing it at 15x FY2013E earnings.

 Key financials
  Y/E March (` cr)                      FY2010       FY2011       FY2012E      FY2013E
  Net sales                             11,921       16,609         19,717      22,544
  % chg                                    35.3         39.3           18.7       14.3
  Adj. net profit                        1,784        2,750          2,800       2,918
  % chg                                   132.0         54.1            1.8        4.2
  EBITDA margin (%)                        20.2         19.7           18.6       17.6
  Adj. EPS (`)                             61.7         95.0           96.8      100.8
  P/E (x)                                  24.3         15.1           14.8       14.2
  P/BV (x)                                 14.1          8.4            6.9        5.6
  RoE (%)                                  74.4         70.2           51.3       43.5
  RoCE (%)                                 58.8         66.2           61.6       54.9
                                                                                           Yaresh Kothari
  EV/Sales (x)                              3.2          2.1            1.7        1.4
                                                                                           022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844
  EV/EBITDA (x)                            16.1         11.1            9.6        8.5
                                                                                           yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
 Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                                          1
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update



                Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance
                Y/E March (` cr)                     1QFY12 1QFY11              % chg    FY2011      FY2010    % chg
                Net sales (incl. other op. income)       4,777    3,890          22.8    16,609       11,921    39.3
                Consumption of RM                        3,290    2,643          24.5    11,230        7,651    46.8
                (% of sales)                              68.9       67.9                  67.6         64.2
                Staff costs                               139        126          9.9      477          399     19.4
                (% of sales)                               2.9        3.2                      2.9       3.4
                Purchases of goods                        176        125         40.9      568          420     35.4
                (% of sales)                               3.7        3.2                      3.4       3.5
                Other expenses                            261        219         19.5      948          859     10.5
                (% of sales)                               5.5        5.6                      5.7       7.2
                Total expenditure                        3,866    3,113          24.2    13,224        9,328    41.8
                EBITDA                                    911        777         17.2     3,385        2,593    30.6
                EBITDA margin (%)                         19.1       20.0                  20.4         21.7
                Interest                                     -         1             -          2         6    (71.7)
                Depreciation                               31         32         (3.7)     123          136    (10.0)
                Other income                               73         82        (10.5)     366          123    198.6
                PBT (excl. extr. items)                   953        826         15.4     3,626        2,573    41.0
                Extr. income/(expense)                       -          -            -    (725)         162           -
                PBT (incl. extr. items)                   953        826         15.4     4,351        2,411    80.4
                (% of sales)                              19.9       21.2                  26.2         20.2
                Provision for taxation                    242        236          2.5     1,011         708     42.9
                (% of PBT)                                25.4       28.6                  23.2         29.3
                Reported PAT                              711        590         20.5     3,340        1,704    96.0
                PATM (%)                                  14.9       15.2                  20.1         14.3
                Equity capital (cr)                      289.4    289.4                   289.4        144.7
                EPS (`)                                   24.6       20.4        20.5     115.4         58.9    96.0
                Source: Company, Angel Research


                Exhibit 2: Volume performance
                Y/E March (units)            1QFY12        1QFY11     % chg          FY2011          FY2010    % chg
                Total two-wheelers          963,051       828,418      16.3       3,387,070      2,510,582      34.9
                    Motorcycles             963,051       828,418      16.3       3,387,043      2,506,845      35.1
                    Scooters                         -           -          -             27           3,737       -
                Three-wheelers              129,764        99,918      29.9         436,884          340,936    28.1
                Total volume              1,092,815       928,336      17.7       3,823,954      2,851,518      34.1
                Exports (inc. above )       427,364       323,899      31.9       1,203,718          890,006    35.2
                Source: Company, Angel Research




July 14, 2011                                                                                                     2
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update



                                                                                                 Marginally lower-than-expected top-line performance: BAL reported slightly lower-
                                                                                                 than-expected top-line growth of 22.8% yoy (13.7% qoq) to `4,777cr, driven by a
                                                                                                 17.7% yoy (15.3% qoq) jump in volumes. The variance in growth was due to lower
                                                                                                 average net realisation, which declined by 1.8% qoq despite average price hikes of
                                                                                                 ~2% during the quarter. On a yoy basis, however, average net realisations grew
                                                                                                 by 4.3% to `41,973. Motorcycle sales grew by 16.3% yoy with Pulsar and Discover
                                                                                                 contributing ~65% of sales, while three-wheelers registered strong 29.9% yoy
                                                                                                 growth. BAL’s exports continued to see strong traction and posted ~40% yoy
                                                                                                 revenue growth during to `1,688cr, owing to a 31.9% yoy increase in volumes.
                                                                                                 Other operating income also posted robust 24.6% yoy growth to `190cr, aiding
                                                                                                 the top-line performance.

                                                                                                 The company’s domestic motorcycle sales grew by 10% (underperforming the
                                                                                                 industry growth of 17.4%) in 1QFY2012, while domestic three-wheeler sales
                                                                                                 increased by 11.3% yoy (against 4.9% industry growth). As a result of the
                                                                                                 underperformance in the domestic motorcycle segment, the company’s market
                                                                                                 share declined by 80bp qoq to 25.3% in 1QFY2012 from 26.1% in 4QFY2011.
                                                                                                 On the exports front, demand remained robust as motorcycle and three-wheeler
                                                                                                 volumes recorded robust 29.7% and 41.4% yoy growth, respectively, in
                                                                                                 1QFY2012.


Exhibit 3: Sales growth driven by volume and realisation                                                                             Exhibit 4: Domestic market share across categories
  (`cr)                            Net sales (LHS)                    Net sales growth (RHS)                                  (%)     (%)             Three-wheelers                 Motorcycles            Total Two-wheelers
  5,000                                                                                                                         90           41.2        40.6      40.9                            42.1
                                                                                                                                      45                                                                    38.5     38.6     38.3
  4,500                                                                                                                         80                                          37.5         36.4
                                                               65.4                                                                   40
  4,000                                            84.1                                                                         70
                                     57.9                                                                                             35                                                           28.6
  3,500                                                                                                                         60                                 26.8     27.5         27.0               25.6     26.1
                                                                                                                                      30                                                                                      25.3
  3,000                                                                                                                                                  22.6
                                                                               49.7                                             50    25     19.5
  2,500
                                                                                                                                40    20
  2,000                                                                                        27.2
                                                                                                           23.1                 30    15                           21.1     21.2         20.8      21.8
  1,500                                                                                                                    22.7                                                                             19.5     19.9     19.5
                                                                                                                                                         17.7
  1,000             1.6                                                                                                         20    10     15.5
                                   14.0                                                                                         10
    500                                                                                                                                5
      0                                                                                                                         0      0
           1QFY10


                          2QFY10


                                          3QFY10


                                                   4QFY10


                                                            1QFY11


                                                                      2QFY11


                                                                                      3QFY11


                                                                                                      4QFY11


                                                                                                                  1QFY12




                                                                                                                                             1QFY10


                                                                                                                                                          2QFY10


                                                                                                                                                                   3QFY10


                                                                                                                                                                            4QFY10


                                                                                                                                                                                          1QFY11


                                                                                                                                                                                                   2QFY11


                                                                                                                                                                                                            3QFY11


                                                                                                                                                                                                                     4QFY11


Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Net sales excludes other                                                                      Source: Company, SIAM, Angel Research                                                    1QFY12
operating income

                                                                                                 Operating performance hit by raw-material cost pressures: During 1QFY2012,
                                                                                                 EBITDA margin came in 71bp below our estimate at 19.1%, registering a fall of
                                                                                                 91bp yoy (145bp qoq). This was the first time in the last eight quarters when the
                                                                                                 company’s margin came in below the 20% mark, primarily on account of a 150bp
                                                                                                 yoy (210bp qoq) increase in raw-material cost, which accounted for 71.7% of net
                                                                                                 sales during the quarter. However, lower staff cost and other expenditure coupled
                                                                                                 with price hikes undertaken to pass on input costs helped arrest further margin
                                                                                                 erosion. Overall, operating profit during the quarter witnessed 17.2% yoy (5.7%
                                                                                                 qoq) growth to `911cr.




July 14, 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                          3
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update



Exhibit 5: EBITDA margin contracts on cost pressures                                              Exhibit 6: Net profit up 20.5% yoy
 (%)                        EBITDA margin                 Raw material cost/sales                   (` cr)                     Net profit (LHS)                 Net profit margin (RHS)             (%)
                                                 74.1        73.5      74.0     73.5     75.6                                                                           16.6 16.7
  80                           71.3     71.6                                                        800                                       16.1     15.8     16.3                                18
        68.5      68.5                                                                                                            15.0                                                15.5
  70                                                                                                                  14.4                                                                          16
                                                                                                    700      13.0
  60                                                                                                600                                                                                             14
  50                                                                                                                                                                                                12
                                                                                                    500
  40                                                                                                                                                                                                10
                                                                                                    400
  30              22.0         22.0     22.9                 20.7      20.3     20.5                                                                                                                8
        19.5                                     20.0                                    19.1       300
                                                                                                                                                                                                    6
  20                                                                                                200                                                                                             4
  10
                                                                                                    100                                                                                             2
   0
                                                                                                       0                                                                                            0
         1QFY10


                   2QFY10


                               3QFY10


                                        4QFY10


                                                 1QFY11


                                                              2QFY11


                                                                       3QFY11


                                                                                4QFY11


                                                                                         1QFY12




                                                                                                             1QFY10


                                                                                                                      2QFY10


                                                                                                                                   3QFY10


                                                                                                                                              4QFY10


                                                                                                                                                       1QFY11


                                                                                                                                                                2QFY11


                                                                                                                                                                         3QFY11


                                                                                                                                                                                  4QFY11


                                                                                                                                                                                           1QFY12
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Net sales excludes other                                   Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Net sales excludes other
operating income                                                                                  operating income


                                                                          Net profit up 20.5% yoy on higher other income: BAL reported marginally
                                                                          lower-than-expected net profit growth of 20.5% yoy (5.2% qoq) to `711cr vs. our
                                                                          estimate of `734cr, largely due to lower-than-expected operating performance.
                                                                          Further, the bottom-line performance was aided by lower-than-expected tax outgo.




July 14, 2011                                                                                                                                                                                             4
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update



                Investment arguments
                     Focus on Discover and Pulsar to improve market share: BAL continues to
                     witness strong demand in the two-wheeler segment from its strong dual
                     offering of Discover and Pulsar. The successful launch of Discover 100cc and
                     125cc bike has helped BAL maintain its market share of ~25% in the domestic
                     motorcycle market. Further, the launch of the new Pulsar is expected to help
                     BAL retain its strong volume momentum. The company is positioning itself in-
                     line with its strategy of ‘value and price products', wherein it proposes to tap
                     the higher-value bike segments, which have a high-growth potential and fetch
                     better realisations. BAL has also launched new products in the high-margin
                     125cc+ segment.

                     Three-wheeler registering healthy growth: BAL has a strong presence in the
                     three-wheeler market, with an overall market share (including exports) of
                     ~61% in June 2011. The company tops the passenger auto-rickshaw segment
                     (65.7% market share), which accounts for ~87% of the three-wheeler market.
                     The three-wheeler segment fetches higher margins than the company’s
                     two-wheeler business. Although competition in the domestic three-wheeler
                     space is intense, strong export volume growth has helped BAL post higher
                     volumes. As a result, we expect the company’s three-wheeler volumes to grow
                     by 12–13% over FY2011–13E.

                     High growth potential in export volumes: BAL registered strong exports CAGR
                     of ~35% during FY2006–11, aided by a ~40% CAGR in two-wheeler exports
                     and a ~25% CAGR in three-wheeler exports. Going ahead, we estimate BAL
                     to register a ~20% CAGR over FY2011–13E, driven by the strong demand
                     outlook from the exports market. BAL has hedged 90–93% of its FY2012
                     exports at a USD–INR rate of `47. Hence, any sharp appreciation of the INR in
                     FY2012 will not have a significant impact on the company’s margins.


                Outlook and valuation
                We factor in the replacement of DEPB scheme by a duty drawback scheme post
                September 2011, which will result in export incentives of 1% as compared to 9%
                under the DEPB scheme. Hence, we expect a ~175bp contraction in operating
                margins and a ~8% decline in earnings. At `1,431, the stock is trading at 14.2x
                FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock
                with a target price of `1,512, valuing it at 15x FY2013E earnings.

                Exhibit 7: Change in estimates
                Y/E March                Earlier estimates         Revised estimates           % chg
                                       FY2012E      FY2013E       FY2012E      FY2013E FY2012E FY2013E
                Net sales (` cr)         19,654       22,380        19,717       22,544       0.3       0.7
                EBITDA margin (%)           19.2         19.3         18.6          17.6   (58)bp   (175)bp
                EPS (`)                   100.3        109.3          96.8        100.8     (3.5)      (7.8)
                Source: Angel Research; Note: Net sales includes other operating income

                Key risks: Any increase in exports incentives from the current levels of 1% under the
                duty drawback scheme post September 2011 poses an upside risk to our target
                price. Further, pricing action by the company as indicated by the management to
                mitigate the impact of withdrawal of the DEPB scheme on margins will lead to
                revision in our earnings estimates and target price.


July 14, 2011                                                                                             5
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update



Exhibit 8: Key assumptions
Y/E March                           FY2009                   FY2010                    FY2011                FY2012E                FY2013E
Total volume (units)              2,194,111               2,851,518                 3,823,954               4,430,352              5,057,818
Domestic                          1,276,427               1,781,748                 2,414,606               2,680,213              3,001,838
Export                             631,383                  725,097                   972,437               1,244,719              1,481,216
Total motorcycle                  1,907,810               2,506,845                 3,387,043               3,924,932              4,483,054
Scooters                            11,772                        3,737                       27                      -                      -
Total two-wheelers                1,919,582               2,510,582                 3,387,070               3,924,932              4,483,054
Passenger domestic                 125,276                  164,493                   201,246                211,308                228,213
Goods domestic                      10,197                    11,534                     4,357                 5,011                  5,411
Exports                            139,056                  164,909                   231,281                289,101                341,139
Total three-wheelers               274,529                  340,936                   436,884                505,420                574,764
Total change (%)
Total volume                         (10.5)                        30.0                   34.1                    15.9                  14.2
Domestic                             (23.0)                        39.6                   35.5                    11.0                  12.0
Export                                 31.1                        14.8                   34.1                    28.0                  19.0
Total motorcycle                     (10.8)                        31.4                   35.1                    15.9                  14.2
Scooters                             (44.8)                       (68.3)                       -                      -                      -
Total two-wheelers                   (11.2)                        30.8                   34.9                    15.9                  14.2
Passenger domestic                     (1.7)                       31.3                   22.3                     5.0                     8.0
Goods domestic                       (61.7)                        13.1                  (62.2)                   15.0                     8.0
Exports                                 2.0                        18.6                   40.2                    25.0                  18.0
Total three-wheelers                   (5.4)                       24.2                   28.1                    15.7                  13.7
Source: Company, Angel Research

                                               Exhibit 9: Angel vs. consensus forecast
                                                                            Angel estimates           Consensus            Variation (%)
                                                                           FY12E      FY13E         FY12E     FY13E       FY12E        FY13E
                                               Net sales (` cr)            19,717    22,544        19,745    22,470        (0.1)           0.3
                                               EPS (`)                       96.8      100.8        101.0     112.0        (4.2)       (10.0)
                                               Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research; Note: Net sales includes other operating income




July 14, 2011                                                                                                                                6
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update



Exhibit 10: One-year forward P/E band                                                                                                                                                             Exhibit 11: One-year forward P/E chart
   (`)                  Share Price (`)                                              6x                     10x                               14x                           18x                    (x)                                                  Absolute P/E                                              Five-yr average P/E
 2,000                                                                                                                                                                                             60
 1,800                                                                                                           BAL
 1,600                                                                                                           de-merged                                                                         50
 1,400
                                                                                                                                                                                                   40
 1,200
 1,000                                                                                                                                                                                             30
   800
   600                                                                                                                                                                                             20
   400                                                                                                                                                                                             10
   200
      0                                                                                                                                                                                             0
                                                                           Jul-06

                                                                                     Feb-07




                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dec-06
                       May-04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Jun-07
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Jan-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Aug-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Aug-10
                                                                                                                                                                           Dec-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                             Apr-04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Apr-09
                                                  Jun-05




                                                                                                                                                              Jun-10
                                                               Jan-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nov-07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Oct-08
                                                                                               Aug-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Sep-04

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Feb-05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Sep-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Feb-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Jul-11
                                                                                                          Mar-08



                                                                                                                                     Apr-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 May-08
           Oct-03



                                    Nov-04




                                                                                                                       Oct-08



                                                                                                                                                  Nov-09



Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research                                                                                                                                                        Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research


Exhibit 12: BAL – Premium/Discount to Sensex P/E                                                                                                                                                  Exhibit 13: Auto stocks vs. Sensex
 (%)                                     Absolute premium                                                 Five-yr average premium                                                                                                            TVS                                HH                                   BAL                                   Sensex
 250                                                                                                                                                                                               450
                                                                                                                                                                                                   400
  200
                                                                                                                                                                                                   350
  150                                                                                                                                                                                              300
  100                                                                                                                                                                                              250
   50                                                                                                                                                                                              200
                                                                                                                                                                                                   150
    0
                                                                                                                                                                                                   100
  (50)                                                                                                                                                                                              50
 (100)                                                                                                                                                                                                   0
                                                                            Dec-06

                                                                                     Jun-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Feb-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Sep-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Jul-11
                                                      Jan-06




                                                                                                                                                                           Jan-11
                                             Aug-05




                                                                                                                                                                Aug-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           May-08
          Apr-04




                                                                                                                                Apr-09
                                                                                              Nov-07



                                                                                                                   Oct-08
                                Feb-05




                                                                                                                                                     Feb-10
                    Sep-04




                                                                  Jul-06




                                                                                                                                         Sep-09




                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Jun-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Jun-10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Jan-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Jan-10
                                                                                                        May-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Aug-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Aug-09
                                                                                                                                                                                                                Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Apr-10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Apr-11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Oct-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nov-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Nov-10
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research                                                                                                                                                        Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research


Exhibit 14: Automobile – Recommendation summary
Company                                                        Reco.                                               CMP                        Tgt. price                            Upside                      P/E (x)                                            EV/EBITDA (x)                                          RoE (%)                          FY11-13E EPS
                                                                                                                            (`)                                (`)                        (%)        FY12E                          FY13E                      FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E                                                                               CAGR (%)
Ashok Leyland                                                  Buy                                                          50                                 60                     20.5               11.1                          10.0                            6.5                    5.7                14.5                   14.9                                        2.7
Bajaj Auto                                                     Accumulate                                        1,431                               1,512                               5.7             14.8                          14.2                            9.6                    8.5                51.3                   43.5                                        3.0
Hero Honda                                                     Neutral                                           1,853                                                 -                      -          17.8                          15.9                            9.7                    8.1                62.4                   59.5                                        7.8
Maruti Suzuki                                                  Accumulate                                        1,176                               1,314                            11.7               13.2                          11.6                            7.3                    5.7                16.7                   16.0                                    13.0
M&M                                                            Accumulate                                            713                                   804                        12.8               15.3                          13.8                            9.9                    8.3                25.1                   23.9                                        9.2
Tata Motors                                                    Neutral                                           1,064                                                 -                      -               6.7                            6.2                       4.3                    3.6                41.9                   32.1                                        9.0
TVS Motor                                                      Buy                                                          51                                 62                     22.0               11.6                                9.8                       5.9                    4.9                20.7                   21.0                                    13.1
Source: Company, Angel Research




July 14, 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              7
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update



                Profit & loss statement
                Y/E March (` cr)               FY2009      FY2010    FY2011   FY2012E    FY2013E
                Gross sales                     9,050       12,118   16,932    20,303     23,526
                Less: Excise duty                613          610      933      1,117      1,294
                Net sales                       8,437       11,509   15,998    19,187     22,232
                Other operating income           373          412      611       530        311
                Total operating income          8,810       11,921   16,609    19,717     22,544
                % chg                            (2.3)        35.3     39.3      18.7       14.3
                Total expenditure               7,829        9,515   13,329    16,040     18,586
                Net raw materials               6,463        8,070   11,799    14,256     16,474
                Other mfg. costs                 192          214      251       288        367
                Personnel                        538          583      477       585        678
                Other                            635          648      802       911       1,067
                EBITDA                           982         2,406    3,280     3,677      3,957
                % chg                           (15.7)       145.0     36.3      12.1        7.6
                (% of Net Sales)                 11.1         20.2     19.7      18.6       17.6
                Depreciation & Amortisation       130         136      123       141        160
                EBIT                             852         2,269    3,157     3,536      3,797
                % chg                           (14.0)       166.3     39.1      12.0        7.4
                (% of Net Sales)                 10.1         19.7     19.7      18.4       17.1
                Interest & other Charges           21           6        2          1         1
                Other Income                     122          144     1,193      354        372
                (% of PBT)                       14.6          5.8     31.7       9.1        8.9
                Recurring PBT                    953         2,408    4,348     3,889      4,168
                % chg                           (15.9)       152.6     80.6     (10.5)       7.2
                Extraordinary (Expense)/Inc.    (115)         (82)     590           -         -
                Tax                              299          705     1,008     1,089      1,250
                (% of PBT)                       35.6         28.3     26.8      28.0       30.0
                PAT (reported)                   655         1,703    3,340     2,800      2,918
                ADJ. PAT                         769         1,784    2,750     2,800      2,918
                % chg                            (4.9)       132.0     54.1       1.8        4.2
                (% of Net Sales)                  9.1         15.5     17.2      14.6       13.1
                Basic EPS (`)                    26.6         58.8    115.4      96.8      100.8
                Adj. EPS (`)                     26.6         61.7     95.0      96.8      100.8
                % chg                            (4.9)       132.0     54.1       1.8        4.2




July 14, 2011                                                                                 8
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update



                Balance sheet
                Y/E March (` cr)                     FY2009      FY2010         FY2011    FY2012E    FY2013E
                SOURCES OF FUNDS
                Equity Share Capital                     145         145           289        289        289
                Preference Capital                          -           -             -          -          -
                Reserves & Surplus                     1,725       2,784         4,621      5,726      7,120
                Shareholders’ Funds                    1,870       2,928         4,910      6,016      7,410
                Total Loans                            1,570       1,339           325        175        175
                Deferred Tax Liability                     4            2           30         30         30
                Total Liabilities                      3,444       4,269         5,265      6,220      7,616
                APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                Gross Block                            3,350       3,379         3,395      3,762      4,057
                Less: Acc. Depreciation                1,808       1,900         1,912      2,054      2,214
                Net Block                              1,542       1,480         1,483      1,709      1,843
                Capital Work-in-Progress                  22          42            70         38         41
                Goodwill                                    -           -             -          -          -
                Investments                            1,809       4,022         4,795      5,598      6,853
                Current Assets                         2,325       1,584         2,873      5,166      6,081
                Cash                                     137         101           556        722        932
                Loans & Advances                       1,491         797         1,406      3,262      3,780
                Other                                    697         686           910      1,183      1,370
                Current liabilities                    2,438       2,858         3,955      6,290      7,202
                Net Current Assets                     (112)      (1,274)       (1,083)    (1,124)    (1,121)
                Mis. Exp. not written off                183            -             -          -          -
                Total Assets                           3,444       4,269         5,265      6,220      7,616
                Note: Cash and bank balance includes term deposits with banks




July 14, 2011                                                                                              9
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update



                Cash flow statement
                Y/E March (` cr)                    FY2009   FY2010    FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
                Profit before tax                     838     2,489     3,758     3,889     4,168
                Depreciation                          130       136       123       141       160
                Change in Working Capital             145       833       198     (122)       233
                Less: Others                          402        12     1,086       389       431
                Direct taxes paid                     299       705     1,008     1,089     1,250
                Cash flow from operations             413     2,742     1,985     2,431     2,880
                (Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets          (353)      (49)      (44)    (335)     (298)
                (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments             49    (2,213)    (774)     (803)    (1,255)
                (Inc.)/Dec. in loans and advances    (141)      (43)    (626)       322     (195)
                Other income                          122       144     1,193       354       372
                Cash flow from investing             (324)   (2,161)    (252)     (461)    (1,376)
                Issue of Equity                          -         -      145          -         -
                Inc./(Dec.) in loans                  236     (231)    (1,013)    (150)          -
                Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)             339       372     1,345     1,354     1,524
                Others                               (582)    (753)    (2,183)   (3,009)   (2,818)
                Cash flow from financing               (8)    (612)    (1,707)   (1,805)   (1,294)
                Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                    81       (30)       26       165       210
                Opening cash balances                  56       137       107       533       698
                Closing cash balances                 137       107       133       698       908




July 14, 2011                                                                                 10
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update



                Key ratios
                Y/E March                            FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
                Valuation ratio (x)
                P/E (on FDEPS)                         53.8     24.3     15.1     14.8     14.2
                P/CEPS                                 52.8     22.5     12.0     14.1     13.5
                P/BV                                   22.1     14.1      8.4      6.9      5.6
                Dividend yield (%)                      0.8      1.4      2.8      2.8      3.1
                EV/Sales                                4.5      3.2      2.1      1.7      1.4
                EV/EBITDA                              41.8     16.1     11.1      9.6      8.5
                EV / Total Assets                      11.9      9.0      6.9      5.7      4.4
                Per share data (`)
                EPS (Basic)                            26.6     58.8    115.4     96.8    100.8
                EPS (fully diluted)                    26.6     61.7     95.0     96.8    100.8
                Cash EPS                               27.1     63.6    119.7    101.6    106.4
                DPS                                    11.0     20.0     40.0     40.0     45.0
                Book Value                             64.6    101.2    169.7    207.9    256.1
                DuPont analysis
                EBIT margin (%)                        10.1     19.7     19.7     18.4     17.1
                Tax retention ratio (x)                 0.6      0.7      0.7      0.7      0.7
                Asset turnover (x)                      2.8      3.2      3.7      3.9      3.7
                RoIC (Post-tax)                        18.5     45.1     54.0     51.3     44.2
                Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                    -        -        -        -        -
                Leverage (x)                               -        -        -        -        -
                Operating RoE (%)                      18.5     45.1     54.0     51.3     44.2
                Returns (%)
                RoCE (Pre-tax)                         26.7     58.8     66.2     61.6     54.9
                Angel RoIC (Pre-tax)                   25.8     54.5     67.0     64.3     56.8
                RoE                                    44.5     74.4     70.2     51.3     43.5
                Turnover ratios (x)
                Asset Turnover (Gross Block)            2.8      3.5      4.9      5.5      5.8
                Inventory / Sales (days)                 15       12       11       12       12
                Receivables (days)                       14        9        7        9        9
                Payables (days)                          49       51       51       48       47
                WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)              (11)     (25)     (33)     (32)     (32)
                Solvency ratios (x)
                Net debt to equity                     (0.2)    (1.0)    (1.0)    (1.0)    (1.0)
                Net debt to EBITDA                     (0.4)    (1.2)    (1.5)    (1.7)    (1.9)
                Interest Coverage (EBIT/ Interest)       41     379     1,868    4,038    4,336




July 14, 2011                                                                               11
Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update


  Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800                E-mail: research@angelbroking.com                    Website: www. angelbroking.com

  DISCLAIMER
  This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
  decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
  such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
  referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
  risks of such an investment.

  Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
  investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
  document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

  Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
  trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
  fundamentals.

  The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
  sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
  document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
  responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
  Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
  nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
  Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
  compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.

  This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
  redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

  Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
  other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
  the past.

  Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
  connection with the use of this information.

  Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
  refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
  its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                Bajaj Auto
 1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                   No
 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                             No
 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock                  No
 4. Broking relationship with company covered                                        No
 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.



 Ratings (Returns) :             Buy (> 15%)                      Accumulate (5% to 15%)                 Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                 Reduce (-5% to 15%)              Sell (< -15%)



July 14, 2011                                                                                                                             12

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Bajaj auto Result Updated

  • 1. 1QFY2012 Result Update | Automobile July 14, 2011 Bajaj Auto ACCUMULATE CMP `1,431 Performance Highlights Target Price `1,512 Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY12 1QFY11 % chg (yoy) Angel est. % diff Investment Period 12 Months Net sales 4,777 3,890 22.8 4,913 (2.8) Stock Info EBITDA 911 777 17.2 972 (6.3) Sector Automobile EBITDA margin (%) 19.1 20.0 (91)bp 19.8 (71)bp Market Cap (Rs cr) 41,406 Reported PAT 711 590 20.5 734 (3.1) Beta 0.7 Source: Company, Angel Research 52 Week High / Low 1,665/1,190 Bajaj Auto (BAL) reported marginally lower-than-expected results as the Avg. Daily Volume 67,322 company’s performance during 1QFY2012 was negatively impacted by a 1.8% Face Value (Rs) 10 qoq drop in average net realisation despite price hikes and margin contraction of BSE Sensex 18,618 145bp due to raw-material cost pressures. We revise our FY2012 and FY2013 Nifty 5,600 earnings estimates downward by 4% and 8%, respectively, to factor in the Reuters Code BAJA.BO replacement of DEPB scheme by a duty drawback scheme post September 2011. Bloomberg Code BJAUT@IN We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock. Net sales driven by volume growth; profitability impacted by cost pressures: BAL reported slightly lower-than-expected top-line growth of 22.8% yoy (13.7% Shareholding Pattern (%) qoq) to `4,777cr, driven by a 17.7% yoy (15.3% qoq) jump in volumes. Promoters 50.0 The variance was due to lower average net realisation, which declined by MF / Banks / Indian Fls 16.8 1.8% qoq despite average price hikes of ~2% during the quarter. Two-wheeler FII / NRIs / OCBs 16.3 sales grew by 16.3% yoy, with Pulsar and Discover contributing ~65% of sales. Indian Public / Others 16.9 EBITDA margin came in 71bp below our estimate at 19.1%, registering a fall of 91bp yoy (145bp qoq). This was a result of higher raw-material costs, which increased by 150bp yoy (210bp qoq). This was the first time in the last Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr eight quarters when the company’s margin came in below the 20% mark. As a Sensex (5.5) 3.8 39.7 result, net profit came in lower than expected at `711cr, registering growth of Bajaj Auto 2.4 17.1 471.0 20.5% yoy (5.2% qoq). Outlook and valuation: We factor in the replacement of DEPB scheme by a duty drawback scheme post September 2011, which will result in export incentives of 1% as compared to 9% under the DEPB scheme. Hence, we expect a ~175bp contraction in operating margins and a ~8% decline in earnings. At `1,431, the stock is trading at 14.2x FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate view on the stock with a target price of `1,512, valuing it at 15x FY2013E earnings. Key financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E Net sales 11,921 16,609 19,717 22,544 % chg 35.3 39.3 18.7 14.3 Adj. net profit 1,784 2,750 2,800 2,918 % chg 132.0 54.1 1.8 4.2 EBITDA margin (%) 20.2 19.7 18.6 17.6 Adj. EPS (`) 61.7 95.0 96.8 100.8 P/E (x) 24.3 15.1 14.8 14.2 P/BV (x) 14.1 8.4 6.9 5.6 RoE (%) 74.4 70.2 51.3 43.5 RoCE (%) 58.8 66.2 61.6 54.9 Yaresh Kothari EV/Sales (x) 3.2 2.1 1.7 1.4 022-3935 7800 Ext: 6844 EV/EBITDA (x) 16.1 11.1 9.6 8.5 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com Source: Company, Angel Research Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
  • 2. Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance Y/E March (` cr) 1QFY12 1QFY11 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg Net sales (incl. other op. income) 4,777 3,890 22.8 16,609 11,921 39.3 Consumption of RM 3,290 2,643 24.5 11,230 7,651 46.8 (% of sales) 68.9 67.9 67.6 64.2 Staff costs 139 126 9.9 477 399 19.4 (% of sales) 2.9 3.2 2.9 3.4 Purchases of goods 176 125 40.9 568 420 35.4 (% of sales) 3.7 3.2 3.4 3.5 Other expenses 261 219 19.5 948 859 10.5 (% of sales) 5.5 5.6 5.7 7.2 Total expenditure 3,866 3,113 24.2 13,224 9,328 41.8 EBITDA 911 777 17.2 3,385 2,593 30.6 EBITDA margin (%) 19.1 20.0 20.4 21.7 Interest - 1 - 2 6 (71.7) Depreciation 31 32 (3.7) 123 136 (10.0) Other income 73 82 (10.5) 366 123 198.6 PBT (excl. extr. items) 953 826 15.4 3,626 2,573 41.0 Extr. income/(expense) - - - (725) 162 - PBT (incl. extr. items) 953 826 15.4 4,351 2,411 80.4 (% of sales) 19.9 21.2 26.2 20.2 Provision for taxation 242 236 2.5 1,011 708 42.9 (% of PBT) 25.4 28.6 23.2 29.3 Reported PAT 711 590 20.5 3,340 1,704 96.0 PATM (%) 14.9 15.2 20.1 14.3 Equity capital (cr) 289.4 289.4 289.4 144.7 EPS (`) 24.6 20.4 20.5 115.4 58.9 96.0 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 2: Volume performance Y/E March (units) 1QFY12 1QFY11 % chg FY2011 FY2010 % chg Total two-wheelers 963,051 828,418 16.3 3,387,070 2,510,582 34.9 Motorcycles 963,051 828,418 16.3 3,387,043 2,506,845 35.1 Scooters - - - 27 3,737 - Three-wheelers 129,764 99,918 29.9 436,884 340,936 28.1 Total volume 1,092,815 928,336 17.7 3,823,954 2,851,518 34.1 Exports (inc. above ) 427,364 323,899 31.9 1,203,718 890,006 35.2 Source: Company, Angel Research July 14, 2011 2
  • 3. Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update Marginally lower-than-expected top-line performance: BAL reported slightly lower- than-expected top-line growth of 22.8% yoy (13.7% qoq) to `4,777cr, driven by a 17.7% yoy (15.3% qoq) jump in volumes. The variance in growth was due to lower average net realisation, which declined by 1.8% qoq despite average price hikes of ~2% during the quarter. On a yoy basis, however, average net realisations grew by 4.3% to `41,973. Motorcycle sales grew by 16.3% yoy with Pulsar and Discover contributing ~65% of sales, while three-wheelers registered strong 29.9% yoy growth. BAL’s exports continued to see strong traction and posted ~40% yoy revenue growth during to `1,688cr, owing to a 31.9% yoy increase in volumes. Other operating income also posted robust 24.6% yoy growth to `190cr, aiding the top-line performance. The company’s domestic motorcycle sales grew by 10% (underperforming the industry growth of 17.4%) in 1QFY2012, while domestic three-wheeler sales increased by 11.3% yoy (against 4.9% industry growth). As a result of the underperformance in the domestic motorcycle segment, the company’s market share declined by 80bp qoq to 25.3% in 1QFY2012 from 26.1% in 4QFY2011. On the exports front, demand remained robust as motorcycle and three-wheeler volumes recorded robust 29.7% and 41.4% yoy growth, respectively, in 1QFY2012. Exhibit 3: Sales growth driven by volume and realisation Exhibit 4: Domestic market share across categories (`cr) Net sales (LHS) Net sales growth (RHS) (%) (%) Three-wheelers Motorcycles Total Two-wheelers 5,000 90 41.2 40.6 40.9 42.1 45 38.5 38.6 38.3 4,500 80 37.5 36.4 65.4 40 4,000 84.1 70 57.9 35 28.6 3,500 60 26.8 27.5 27.0 25.6 26.1 30 25.3 3,000 22.6 49.7 50 25 19.5 2,500 40 20 2,000 27.2 23.1 30 15 21.1 21.2 20.8 21.8 1,500 22.7 19.5 19.9 19.5 17.7 1,000 1.6 20 10 15.5 14.0 10 500 5 0 0 0 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Net sales excludes other Source: Company, SIAM, Angel Research 1QFY12 operating income Operating performance hit by raw-material cost pressures: During 1QFY2012, EBITDA margin came in 71bp below our estimate at 19.1%, registering a fall of 91bp yoy (145bp qoq). This was the first time in the last eight quarters when the company’s margin came in below the 20% mark, primarily on account of a 150bp yoy (210bp qoq) increase in raw-material cost, which accounted for 71.7% of net sales during the quarter. However, lower staff cost and other expenditure coupled with price hikes undertaken to pass on input costs helped arrest further margin erosion. Overall, operating profit during the quarter witnessed 17.2% yoy (5.7% qoq) growth to `911cr. July 14, 2011 3
  • 4. Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update Exhibit 5: EBITDA margin contracts on cost pressures Exhibit 6: Net profit up 20.5% yoy (%) EBITDA margin Raw material cost/sales (` cr) Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS) (%) 74.1 73.5 74.0 73.5 75.6 16.6 16.7 80 71.3 71.6 800 16.1 15.8 16.3 18 68.5 68.5 15.0 15.5 70 14.4 16 700 13.0 60 600 14 50 12 500 40 10 400 30 22.0 22.0 22.9 20.7 20.3 20.5 8 19.5 20.0 19.1 300 6 20 200 4 10 100 2 0 0 0 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Net sales excludes other Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Net sales excludes other operating income operating income Net profit up 20.5% yoy on higher other income: BAL reported marginally lower-than-expected net profit growth of 20.5% yoy (5.2% qoq) to `711cr vs. our estimate of `734cr, largely due to lower-than-expected operating performance. Further, the bottom-line performance was aided by lower-than-expected tax outgo. July 14, 2011 4
  • 5. Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update Investment arguments Focus on Discover and Pulsar to improve market share: BAL continues to witness strong demand in the two-wheeler segment from its strong dual offering of Discover and Pulsar. The successful launch of Discover 100cc and 125cc bike has helped BAL maintain its market share of ~25% in the domestic motorcycle market. Further, the launch of the new Pulsar is expected to help BAL retain its strong volume momentum. The company is positioning itself in- line with its strategy of ‘value and price products', wherein it proposes to tap the higher-value bike segments, which have a high-growth potential and fetch better realisations. BAL has also launched new products in the high-margin 125cc+ segment. Three-wheeler registering healthy growth: BAL has a strong presence in the three-wheeler market, with an overall market share (including exports) of ~61% in June 2011. The company tops the passenger auto-rickshaw segment (65.7% market share), which accounts for ~87% of the three-wheeler market. The three-wheeler segment fetches higher margins than the company’s two-wheeler business. Although competition in the domestic three-wheeler space is intense, strong export volume growth has helped BAL post higher volumes. As a result, we expect the company’s three-wheeler volumes to grow by 12–13% over FY2011–13E. High growth potential in export volumes: BAL registered strong exports CAGR of ~35% during FY2006–11, aided by a ~40% CAGR in two-wheeler exports and a ~25% CAGR in three-wheeler exports. Going ahead, we estimate BAL to register a ~20% CAGR over FY2011–13E, driven by the strong demand outlook from the exports market. BAL has hedged 90–93% of its FY2012 exports at a USD–INR rate of `47. Hence, any sharp appreciation of the INR in FY2012 will not have a significant impact on the company’s margins. Outlook and valuation We factor in the replacement of DEPB scheme by a duty drawback scheme post September 2011, which will result in export incentives of 1% as compared to 9% under the DEPB scheme. Hence, we expect a ~175bp contraction in operating margins and a ~8% decline in earnings. At `1,431, the stock is trading at 14.2x FY2013E earnings. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock with a target price of `1,512, valuing it at 15x FY2013E earnings. Exhibit 7: Change in estimates Y/E March Earlier estimates Revised estimates % chg FY2012E FY2013E FY2012E FY2013E FY2012E FY2013E Net sales (` cr) 19,654 22,380 19,717 22,544 0.3 0.7 EBITDA margin (%) 19.2 19.3 18.6 17.6 (58)bp (175)bp EPS (`) 100.3 109.3 96.8 100.8 (3.5) (7.8) Source: Angel Research; Note: Net sales includes other operating income Key risks: Any increase in exports incentives from the current levels of 1% under the duty drawback scheme post September 2011 poses an upside risk to our target price. Further, pricing action by the company as indicated by the management to mitigate the impact of withdrawal of the DEPB scheme on margins will lead to revision in our earnings estimates and target price. July 14, 2011 5
  • 6. Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update Exhibit 8: Key assumptions Y/E March FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E Total volume (units) 2,194,111 2,851,518 3,823,954 4,430,352 5,057,818 Domestic 1,276,427 1,781,748 2,414,606 2,680,213 3,001,838 Export 631,383 725,097 972,437 1,244,719 1,481,216 Total motorcycle 1,907,810 2,506,845 3,387,043 3,924,932 4,483,054 Scooters 11,772 3,737 27 - - Total two-wheelers 1,919,582 2,510,582 3,387,070 3,924,932 4,483,054 Passenger domestic 125,276 164,493 201,246 211,308 228,213 Goods domestic 10,197 11,534 4,357 5,011 5,411 Exports 139,056 164,909 231,281 289,101 341,139 Total three-wheelers 274,529 340,936 436,884 505,420 574,764 Total change (%) Total volume (10.5) 30.0 34.1 15.9 14.2 Domestic (23.0) 39.6 35.5 11.0 12.0 Export 31.1 14.8 34.1 28.0 19.0 Total motorcycle (10.8) 31.4 35.1 15.9 14.2 Scooters (44.8) (68.3) - - - Total two-wheelers (11.2) 30.8 34.9 15.9 14.2 Passenger domestic (1.7) 31.3 22.3 5.0 8.0 Goods domestic (61.7) 13.1 (62.2) 15.0 8.0 Exports 2.0 18.6 40.2 25.0 18.0 Total three-wheelers (5.4) 24.2 28.1 15.7 13.7 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 9: Angel vs. consensus forecast Angel estimates Consensus Variation (%) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E Net sales (` cr) 19,717 22,544 19,745 22,470 (0.1) 0.3 EPS (`) 96.8 100.8 101.0 112.0 (4.2) (10.0) Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research; Note: Net sales includes other operating income July 14, 2011 6
  • 7. Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update Exhibit 10: One-year forward P/E band Exhibit 11: One-year forward P/E chart (`) Share Price (`) 6x 10x 14x 18x (x) Absolute P/E Five-yr average P/E 2,000 60 1,800 BAL 1,600 de-merged 50 1,400 40 1,200 1,000 30 800 600 20 400 10 200 0 0 Jul-06 Feb-07 Jul-11 Dec-06 May-04 Jun-07 Jan-06 Jan-11 Aug-05 Aug-10 Dec-10 Apr-04 Apr-09 Jun-05 Jun-10 Jan-06 Nov-07 Oct-08 Aug-07 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-06 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-11 Mar-08 Apr-09 May-08 Oct-03 Nov-04 Oct-08 Nov-09 Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 12: BAL – Premium/Discount to Sensex P/E Exhibit 13: Auto stocks vs. Sensex (%) Absolute premium Five-yr average premium TVS HH BAL Sensex 250 450 400 200 350 150 300 100 250 50 200 150 0 100 (50) 50 (100) 0 Dec-06 Jun-07 Feb-11 Sep-10 Jul-11 Jan-06 Jan-11 Aug-05 Aug-10 May-08 Apr-04 Apr-09 Nov-07 Oct-08 Feb-05 Feb-10 Sep-04 Jul-06 Sep-09 Jul-11 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jan-09 Jan-10 May-08 Aug-08 Aug-09 Mar-08 Mar-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Oct-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 14: Automobile – Recommendation summary Company Reco. CMP Tgt. price Upside P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY11-13E EPS (`) (`) (%) FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E FY12E FY13E CAGR (%) Ashok Leyland Buy 50 60 20.5 11.1 10.0 6.5 5.7 14.5 14.9 2.7 Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,431 1,512 5.7 14.8 14.2 9.6 8.5 51.3 43.5 3.0 Hero Honda Neutral 1,853 - - 17.8 15.9 9.7 8.1 62.4 59.5 7.8 Maruti Suzuki Accumulate 1,176 1,314 11.7 13.2 11.6 7.3 5.7 16.7 16.0 13.0 M&M Accumulate 713 804 12.8 15.3 13.8 9.9 8.3 25.1 23.9 9.2 Tata Motors Neutral 1,064 - - 6.7 6.2 4.3 3.6 41.9 32.1 9.0 TVS Motor Buy 51 62 22.0 11.6 9.8 5.9 4.9 20.7 21.0 13.1 Source: Company, Angel Research July 14, 2011 7
  • 8. Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update Profit & loss statement Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E Gross sales 9,050 12,118 16,932 20,303 23,526 Less: Excise duty 613 610 933 1,117 1,294 Net sales 8,437 11,509 15,998 19,187 22,232 Other operating income 373 412 611 530 311 Total operating income 8,810 11,921 16,609 19,717 22,544 % chg (2.3) 35.3 39.3 18.7 14.3 Total expenditure 7,829 9,515 13,329 16,040 18,586 Net raw materials 6,463 8,070 11,799 14,256 16,474 Other mfg. costs 192 214 251 288 367 Personnel 538 583 477 585 678 Other 635 648 802 911 1,067 EBITDA 982 2,406 3,280 3,677 3,957 % chg (15.7) 145.0 36.3 12.1 7.6 (% of Net Sales) 11.1 20.2 19.7 18.6 17.6 Depreciation & Amortisation 130 136 123 141 160 EBIT 852 2,269 3,157 3,536 3,797 % chg (14.0) 166.3 39.1 12.0 7.4 (% of Net Sales) 10.1 19.7 19.7 18.4 17.1 Interest & other Charges 21 6 2 1 1 Other Income 122 144 1,193 354 372 (% of PBT) 14.6 5.8 31.7 9.1 8.9 Recurring PBT 953 2,408 4,348 3,889 4,168 % chg (15.9) 152.6 80.6 (10.5) 7.2 Extraordinary (Expense)/Inc. (115) (82) 590 - - Tax 299 705 1,008 1,089 1,250 (% of PBT) 35.6 28.3 26.8 28.0 30.0 PAT (reported) 655 1,703 3,340 2,800 2,918 ADJ. PAT 769 1,784 2,750 2,800 2,918 % chg (4.9) 132.0 54.1 1.8 4.2 (% of Net Sales) 9.1 15.5 17.2 14.6 13.1 Basic EPS (`) 26.6 58.8 115.4 96.8 100.8 Adj. EPS (`) 26.6 61.7 95.0 96.8 100.8 % chg (4.9) 132.0 54.1 1.8 4.2 July 14, 2011 8
  • 9. Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update Balance sheet Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 145 145 289 289 289 Preference Capital - - - - - Reserves & Surplus 1,725 2,784 4,621 5,726 7,120 Shareholders’ Funds 1,870 2,928 4,910 6,016 7,410 Total Loans 1,570 1,339 325 175 175 Deferred Tax Liability 4 2 30 30 30 Total Liabilities 3,444 4,269 5,265 6,220 7,616 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 3,350 3,379 3,395 3,762 4,057 Less: Acc. Depreciation 1,808 1,900 1,912 2,054 2,214 Net Block 1,542 1,480 1,483 1,709 1,843 Capital Work-in-Progress 22 42 70 38 41 Goodwill - - - - - Investments 1,809 4,022 4,795 5,598 6,853 Current Assets 2,325 1,584 2,873 5,166 6,081 Cash 137 101 556 722 932 Loans & Advances 1,491 797 1,406 3,262 3,780 Other 697 686 910 1,183 1,370 Current liabilities 2,438 2,858 3,955 6,290 7,202 Net Current Assets (112) (1,274) (1,083) (1,124) (1,121) Mis. Exp. not written off 183 - - - - Total Assets 3,444 4,269 5,265 6,220 7,616 Note: Cash and bank balance includes term deposits with banks July 14, 2011 9
  • 10. Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update Cash flow statement Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E Profit before tax 838 2,489 3,758 3,889 4,168 Depreciation 130 136 123 141 160 Change in Working Capital 145 833 198 (122) 233 Less: Others 402 12 1,086 389 431 Direct taxes paid 299 705 1,008 1,089 1,250 Cash flow from operations 413 2,742 1,985 2,431 2,880 (Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (353) (49) (44) (335) (298) (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments 49 (2,213) (774) (803) (1,255) (Inc.)/Dec. in loans and advances (141) (43) (626) 322 (195) Other income 122 144 1,193 354 372 Cash flow from investing (324) (2,161) (252) (461) (1,376) Issue of Equity - - 145 - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 236 (231) (1,013) (150) - Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 339 372 1,345 1,354 1,524 Others (582) (753) (2,183) (3,009) (2,818) Cash flow from financing (8) (612) (1,707) (1,805) (1,294) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 81 (30) 26 165 210 Opening cash balances 56 137 107 533 698 Closing cash balances 137 107 133 698 908 July 14, 2011 10
  • 11. Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update Key ratios Y/E March FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 53.8 24.3 15.1 14.8 14.2 P/CEPS 52.8 22.5 12.0 14.1 13.5 P/BV 22.1 14.1 8.4 6.9 5.6 Dividend yield (%) 0.8 1.4 2.8 2.8 3.1 EV/Sales 4.5 3.2 2.1 1.7 1.4 EV/EBITDA 41.8 16.1 11.1 9.6 8.5 EV / Total Assets 11.9 9.0 6.9 5.7 4.4 Per share data (`) EPS (Basic) 26.6 58.8 115.4 96.8 100.8 EPS (fully diluted) 26.6 61.7 95.0 96.8 100.8 Cash EPS 27.1 63.6 119.7 101.6 106.4 DPS 11.0 20.0 40.0 40.0 45.0 Book Value 64.6 101.2 169.7 207.9 256.1 DuPont analysis EBIT margin (%) 10.1 19.7 19.7 18.4 17.1 Tax retention ratio (x) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 Asset turnover (x) 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.9 3.7 RoIC (Post-tax) 18.5 45.1 54.0 51.3 44.2 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) - - - - - Leverage (x) - - - - - Operating RoE (%) 18.5 45.1 54.0 51.3 44.2 Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) 26.7 58.8 66.2 61.6 54.9 Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 25.8 54.5 67.0 64.3 56.8 RoE 44.5 74.4 70.2 51.3 43.5 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.8 3.5 4.9 5.5 5.8 Inventory / Sales (days) 15 12 11 12 12 Receivables (days) 14 9 7 9 9 Payables (days) 49 51 51 48 47 WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) (11) (25) (33) (32) (32) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity (0.2) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) (1.0) Net debt to EBITDA (0.4) (1.2) (1.5) (1.7) (1.9) Interest Coverage (EBIT/ Interest) 41 379 1,868 4,038 4,336 July 14, 2011 11
  • 12. Bajaj Auto | 1QFY2012 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www. angelbroking.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Bajaj Auto 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) July 14, 2011 12