1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I FMCG
April 28, 2010
Dabur India NEUTRAL
CMP Rs180
Performance Highlights Target Price -
Dabur delivered a modest set of numbers, posting a Top-line growth of 16% Investment Period -
yoy (below estimates), Earnings growth of 30% (above estimates) and EBITDA
growth of 25% (above estimates). The Top-line growth was driven by double- Stock Info
digit volume growth across categories. The Operating performance surprised,
Sector FMCG
largely driven by a higher Gross Margin expansion (up 137bp yoy), on
account of a benign input cost environment. After the 4QFY2010 results, we Market Cap (Rs cr) 15,617
have marginally revised our Top-line estimates downwards by ~2% to factor
Beta 0.3
in the lower-than-anticipated growth. Yet, we are enthused with the higher
Gross Margin expansion and expect input costs to remain benign. However, 52 WK High / Low 183/100
owing to the recent run-up in the stock price, we recommend a Neutral view
on the stock. Avg. Daily Volume 208,909
Face Value (Rs) 1
Gross Margin expansion positive; Earnings beat estimates: Dabur posted a
healthy growth in the Top-line of 16.0% yoy to Rs849cr, led by a modest BSE Sensex 17,380
13.3% volume growth, 2.3% price increases and 0.7% translation gain. In
Nifty 5,215
terms of categories, CCD posted a healthy 14.6%, CHD grew 15% yoy and
International business grew 26.3% for FY2010. Fem added 3% to the Top-line Reuters Code DABU.BO
for FY2010. Dabur’s reported Earnings registered a robust growth of 29.7%
Bloomberg Code DABUR @IN
yoy to Rs135cr, despite a sharp jump of 691bp yoy in the Tax rate, owing to
Margin expansion, lower Interest costs and higher other income. On the Shareholding Pattern (%)
Operating front, Dabur delivered a Margin expansion of 137bp yoy to 19.1%.
The Gross Margin expansion (up 150bp yoy, on account of lower input costs Promoters 69.0
and efficient buying) and lower Other Expenses (down 113bp) were the key MF/Banks/Indian FIs 10.9
levers behind the Operating Margin expansion.
FII/NRIs/OCBs 14.8
Outlook and Valuation: During FY2010E-12E, we expect Dabur to post a
CAGR of 16% in the Top-line, aided by a steady volume growth in its core Indian Public 5.3
CCD categories of Hair Care, Skin Care and Foods, coupled with a robust Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
growth in its International business. We expect Dabur’s OPMs to sustain at
~19% levels, owing to the benign input cost environment. We remain bullish Sensex 6.6 58.0 25.0
on Dabur’s diversified product portfolio, with a niche positioning in the
Herbal/Natural space. However, owing to the recent run-up in its price, at the Dabur 14.2 76.9 89.6
CMP of Rs180, the stock is trading at a fair valuation of 22.9x FY2012E EPS
of Rs7.8, leaving little room for an upside. Hence, we recommend a Neutral
view on the stock.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E Mar (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 2,805 3,366 3,931 4,525
% chg 18.8 20.0 16.8 15.1
Net Profit (Adj) 390.8 504.3 584.1 681.7
% chg 17.1 29.1 15.8 16.7
OPM (%) 16.8 18.8 19.1 19.2
EPS (Rs) 4.5 5.8 6.7 7.8
P/E (x) 39.8 31.0 26.8 22.9 Anand Shah
19.0 12.3 9.8 8.1 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 334
P/BV (x)
E-mail: anand.shah@angeltrade.com
RoE (%) 54.4 48.2 40.7 38.8
RoCE (%) 47.3 45.6 42.5 42.7
Chitrangda Kapur
EV/Sales (x) 5.6 4.6 3.9 3.3
Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 323
EV/EBITDA (x) 33.2 24.5 20.4 17.4
E-mail: chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
2. Dabur India I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance Update (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY10 4QFY09 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg
Net Sales 848.8 731.7 16.0 3,365.7 2,805.4 20.0
Consumption of RM 384.3 342.3 12.3 1,539.4 1,376.2 11.9
(% of Sales) 45.3 46.8 45.7 49.1
Staff Cost 75.4 59.2 27.4 280.4 234.7 19.5
(% of Sales) 8.9 8.1 8.3 8.4
Advertising 115.6 96.3 20.1 484.5 343.3 41.1
(% of Sales) 13.6 13.2 14.4 12.2
Other Expenses 111.5 104.4 6.8 428.4 380.8 12.5
(% of Sales) 13.1 14.3 12.7 13.6
Total Expenditure 686.8 602.1 14.1 2,732.7 2,335.0 17.0
Operating Profit 162.0 129.6 25.0 633.0 470.5 34.5
OPM (%) 19.1 17.7 18.8 16.8
Interest 2.5 8.3 (70.3) 13.2 23.2 (43.3)
Depreciation/Amortisation 14.9 14.4 3.5 55.7 49.2 13.2
Other Income 14.3 8.9 59.4 38.7 46.8 (17.3)
PBT (excl Ext. Items) 158.9 115.8 37.2 602.8 444.8 35.5
Ext Income/(Expenses) (2.23) - (1.96) -
PBT (incl Ext. Items) 161.1 115.8 39.1 604.8 444.8 36.0
(% of Sales) 19.0 15.8 18.0 15.9
Prov. for Taxation 25.8 10.6 144.6 100.5 54.0 85.9
(% of PBT) 16.0 9.1 16.6 12.1
Recurring PAT 135.3 105.3 28.5 504.3 390.8 29.1
PATM (%) 0.0 1.0 0.8 (0.4)
Reported PAT 135.3 104.3 29.7 503.5 391.2 28.7
Equity Shares (cr) 15.9 14.3 15.0 13.9
EPS (Rs) 86.8 86.5 86.8 86.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
13% volume growth, International business and Fem Care aid Top-line
Dabur posted a healthy growth in the Top-line by 16.0% yoy to Rs849cr (Rs732cr)
on a consolidated basis, below our expectations of a 22.6% yoy growth. The Top-
line growth was led by a modest 13.3% volume growth, 2.3% price increases and a
0.7% translation gain. In terms of categories, CCD posted a healthy 14.6% growth,
led by a strong performance of the Shampoos, Skincare and Foods division, CHD
grew by 15% yoy and the International business grew 26.3% for FY2010. Fem
added 3% to the Top-line for FY2010.
Earnings beat estimates, driven by Other Income and lower interest costs
Dabur’s reported Earnings for the quarter on a consolidated basis registered a
robust growth of 29.7% yoy to Rs135cr (Rs104cr), despite a sharp jump of 691bp
yoy in the Tax rate, significantly above our estimates of a 16.5% yoy growth to
Rs122cr, owing to Margin expansion, lower Interest costs (declined 70.3% yoy due to
a reduction in debt) and higher Other Income (up 59.4% yoy).
Gross Margin expansion of 137bp came as a positive surprise
On the Operating front, Dabur India delivered a Margin expansion of 137bp yoy to
19.1% (17.7%), driving a robust growth of 25% yoy in the EBITDA to Rs162cr
(Rs129.6cr). Gross Margin expansion (up 150bp yoy on account of lower input costs
and efficient buying) and lower Other Expenses (down 113bp) were the key levers
behind the Operating Margin expansion.
April 28, 2010 2
3. Dabur India I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Exhibit 2: FY2010 Category-wise growth (Consolidated)
Growth (%) Comments
Consumer Care
Division 14.6 Driven by double digit volume growth
Dabur Amla Hair Oil grew 10.6% (aggressive rural
marketing) and Vatika hair oil grew 6% (low institutional
Hair Care 13.6 sales), Anmol coconut hair oil grew 15.4%; Shampoo
category grew by a strong 27% yoy, led by Vatika
Shampoos (40.5% growth).
Overall Toothpastes grew 19.4% (outpaced industry
growth of 6%), Dabur Red grew 17.4%, Meswak grew
Oral Care 11.5 26.8% and Babool grew 19.4%. Dabur’s market share
increased to 10.2% (9.3%). Dabur Red Toothpowder
witnessed a decline of 2.8%.
Glucose grew at its historical strongest at 52.1% and
Health Honey grew 15%. Chyawanprash sales were moderate
20.4
Supplements at 13%. Chyawan Junior clocked 50% growth to reach
Rs6cr.
Hajmola tablets grew 11.6% and Hajmola candies grew
13.1%. For Hajmola, new variants and innovative
Digestives 10.8
consumer activations have been key drivers. Lal Tail has
grown at 8%.
The Gulabari portfolio witnessed significant growth of
Skin care 33.2 34.5%, driven by Gulabari cold cream and lotions. The
new Uveda range to be rolled out nationally in FY11
Odomos grew 10.2%, Odonil gew by 1.8%
Home Care 3.3
(re-launched) and Sanifresh reported 15.2% growth.
Growth largely led juices and culinary range, Real
Juices grew 21%, Real Activ grew at 6%, while
Foods Division 20.0
Hommade registered a strong growth of 49%. Entered
Fruit Drinks category with Real Burrst.
Pudin Hara grew 17.7%. Honitus franchise grew 13%.
Consumer Health
15.0 Strategic review for CHD completed and new initiatives
Division
planned during FY2011E.
Growth was across all focus and potential markets, led
International by Egypt (34.4%), Bangladesh (46.7%), Nepal (9%),
26.3
Business Division and GCC (39.4%). High growth driven by an
impressive trajectory for all brands across markets.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Segment-wise Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E Mar (Rs cr) 4QFY10 4QFY09 % chg F20Y10 FY2009 % chg
Total Net Sales 855.3 737.1 16.0 3,390.9 2,834.1 19.6
Consumer Care 639.5 556.8 14.9 2,602.8 2,174.9 19.7
Consumer Health 76.8 67.7 13.5 279.6 244.6 14.3
Foods Business 115.6 92.9 24.4 415.8 335.1 24.1
Retail 2.4 1.8 9.2 6.0
Others 20.9 17.9 17.0 83.6 73.6 13.6
Total PBIT 225.4 185.5 21.5 856.3 665.5 28.7
Consumer Care 186.4 147.3 26.5 713.5 553.1 29.0
Consumer Health 21.1 22.9 (7.6) 73.6 71.3 3.3
Foods Business 20.1 17.3 16.2 72.5 56.8 27.7
Retail (2.2) (2.1) (9.3) (17.8)
Others 0.0 0.1 (83.3) 6.0 2.1 180.7
PBIT Margin (%) 26.4 25.2 25.3 23.5
Consumer Care 29.1 26.5 27.4 25.4
Consumer Health 27.5 33.8 26.3 29.2
Foods Business 17.4 18.6 17.4 16.9
Retail 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Others 0.1 0.7 7.1 2.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
April 28, 2010 3
4. Dabur India I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Outlook and Valuation
After the 4QFY2010 results, we have marginally revised our Top-line estimates
downwards by ~2% to factor in the lower-than-anticipated growth. However, we are
enthused with the higher Gross Margin expansion and expect input costs to remain
benign. Hence, we have modeled in a 50-80bp Margin expansion and our Earnings
estimates remain largely unchanged.
During FY2010E-12E, we expect Dabur to post a CAGR of 16% in the Top-line,
aided by steady volume growth in its core CCD categories of Hair Care, Skin Care
and Foods, coupled with a robust growth in its International business. We expect
Dabur’s OPMs to sustain at ~18-18.5% levels, owing to a benign input cost
environment, better product-mix (premium product launches like Uveda) and higher
operating leverage. We have modeled in a healthy 16% CAGR in Earnings, aided by
the robust Top-line growth and consistent Margins.
We remain bullish on Dabur’s diversified product portfolio, with a niche positioning
in the Herbal/Natural space, and initial signs of revival in core categories (like
Toothpaste) come as a positive surprise. Moreover, Fem Care’s consolidation,
coupled with the launch of Uveda, will help Dabur diversify into the skin care
category, and cost synergies (on Dabur’s front) will help improve Fem’s Margins.
However, owing to the recent run-up in its price, at the CMP of Rs180, the stock is
trading at a fair valuation of 22.9x FY2012E EPS of Rs7.8, leaving little room for
upside. Hence, we recommend a Neutral view on the stock.
Exhibit 4: 1-year forward P/E band
200 14x 18x 22x 26x
180
160
140
120
Share Price (Rs)
100
80
60
40
20
-
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Aug-05
Feb-06
Aug-06
Feb-07
Aug-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
April 28, 2010 4
9. Dabur India I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022- 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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April 28, 2010 9
