Lundin Gold April 2024 Corporate Presentation v4.pdf
Market outlook 110612
1. Market Outlook
June 11, 2012
Dealer’s Diary
The Indian markets are expected to open in the green tracing positive opening in Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
most of the Asian bourses and the SGX Nifty. Asian stocks rose as Spain asked for BSE Sensex 0.4 69.8 16,719
a bailout for its banks and China’s exports beat estimates.
Nifty 0.4 18.7 5,068
Spain asked euro-region governments over the weekend for as much as €100bn MID CAP 0.2 13.0 5,988
($126bn) to help shore up its banking system. Chinese data showed exports grew SMALL CAP 0.2 12.5 6,326
last month at more than double the pace, while imports of crude oil rose to a BSE HC (0.0) (0.6) 6,635
record. The rescue package for Spain could be worth up to €100bn but the BSE PSU 0.2 10.8 6,922
contribution will be provided by The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and
BANKEX 0.5 58.3 11,514
the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) instead of the International Monetary
AUTO 0.1 5.7 9,192
Fund (IMF).
METAL 0.4 38.8 10,308
Meanwhile Indian shares extended gains for the fifth straight session on Friday, OIL & GAS 0.5 37.9 7,781
shrugging off initial weakness in the wake of weak global cues after major central
BSE IT (0.8) (42.3) 5,617
banks ECB and the Fed stayed put on announcing additional stimulus measures.
Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Markets Today Dow Jones 0.8 93.2 12,554
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,657 / 5,068 levels. If NIFTY trades above NASDAQ 1.0 27.4 2,858
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally FTSE (0.2) (12.7) 5,435
up to 16,829 – 16,940 / 5,097 – 5,114 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below Nikkei (2.1) (180.5) 8,459
16,667 / 5,068 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
Hang Seng (0.9) (176.0) 18,502
16,547 – 16,374 / 5,052 – 5,023 levels.
Straits Times (0.8) (21.4) 2,738
Indices S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 Shanghai Com (0.5) (11.7) 2,281
SENSEX 16,374 16,547 16,657 16,829 16,940
NIFTY 5,023 5,052 5,068 5,097 5,114 Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
INFY (0.6) (0.3) $43.6
News Analysis WIT (0.5) (0.0) $8.9
IBN 0.2 0.1 $30.2
L&T bags orders worth `483cr
Vedanta Resources acquires 24.5% stake in Raykal Aluminium HDB (1.5) (0.5) $30.2
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Advances / Declines BSE NSE
Net Inflows (June 08, 2012)
Advances 1,322 662
` cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD Declines 1,417 742
FII 2740 2000 741 (432) 41,506 Unchanged 118 95
MFs 285 280 5 820 (5,646)
Volumes (` cr)
FII Derivatives (June 08, 2012)
BSE 1,971
` cr Purch Sales Net Open Interest NSE 9,741
Index Futures 1,316 1,479 (163) 8,638
Stock Futures 1,370 1,095 275 22,440
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Losers
Company Price (`) chg (%) Company Price (`) chg (%)
Sun TV Network 258 9.1 India Cements 73 (4.7)
Jet Air India 364 7.1 Aurobindo Phar 106 (3.2)
HDIL 73 5.9 Godrej Cons 559 (3.0)
IVRCL LTD 47 5.6 Rajesh Exports 129 (2.9)
Indiabulls Fin 233 4.7 Glenmark Pharma 367 (2.2)
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2. Market Outlook
June 11, 2012
L&T bags orders worth `483cr
L&T Shipbuilding has bagged orders worth `483cr to build four specialised
commercial vessels. The orders, from Halul Offshore Services Company, Qatar,
are for design, construction and commissioning of two platform supply vessels
(PSVs) and two anchor handling, towing, supply and support vessels (AHTSSVs).
The PSVs will be equipped for firefighting, rescue and standby, offshore supply and
oil recovery.
At the CMP of `1,309, the stock is trading at 17.1x FY2014E earnings and 2.4x
FY2014E P/BV on a standalone basis. We have used the SOTP methodology to
value the company to capture all its business initiatives and investments/stakes in
different businesses. Ascribing separate values to its parent business on a P/E basis
and investments in subsidiaries on P/E, P/BV and mcap basis, our target price
works out to `1,553, which provides 18.6% upside from current levels. We
recommend Buy on the stock.
Vedanta Resources acquires 24.5% stake in Raykal Aluminium
Vedanta Resources, the promoters of Sesa Goa and Sterlite Industries have
acquired 24.5% stake in Raykal Aluminium for `201cr with an agreement to
acquire the remaining 75.5%, subject to fulfillment of certain milestones. Raykal
Aluminium has Prospecting License (PL) to inspect bauxite in Sijmali, Kurumaki and
Kalahandi districts of Odisha; however, it does not have any operations currently.
Raykal Aluminium will be acquired under the non-integrated Vedanta Aluminium
(VAL). VAL is currently a subsidiary of Vedanta Resources and it will be transferred
to Sesa Sterlite after the completion of the proposed merger of Sesa Goa and
Sterlite Industries.
The deal is likely to be positive for Sesa Goa and Sterlite Industries over the long
term if VAL manages to get the required Environment and Forest clearances for the
allocated bauxite mines; however, it could take several years in our view. In the
near-term, VAL is expected to continue to make losses at the PAT level due to low
aluminium prices and higher costs of inputs. We maintain our Buy rating on
Sterlite Industries with a target price is `123. We recommend Neutral on Sesa Goa
at these price levels.
Economic and Political News
UN lowers India growth forecast to 6.7% on weak domestic demand
DoT to seek legal opinion on spectrum mortgage by telcos
Rupee snaps 9-wk losing run, rebounds from tough May
Corporate News
ICICI Bank, Yes Bank ink deal with Exim Bank of Malaysia
Bajaj rolls out Pulsar 200 NS in Maharashtra
JSPL may scrap $2.1bn Bolivia plan
Mahindra Satyam seeks shareholders' nod for merger
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
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3. Market Outlook
June 11, 2012
Global economic events release calendar
Date Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
June 12, 2012 India Industrial Production YoY % Change Mar-12 (3.50) 1.70
UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Mar-12 (2.60) (1.00)
June 13, 2012 US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Apr-12 (0.20) (0.60)
June 14, 2012 US Initial Jobless claims Thousands 02-Jun-12 377.00 375.00
US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Apr-12 -- (0.20)
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Apr-12 2.60 2.40
Monthly Wholesale Prices
India % Change Apr-12 7.23 7.50
YoY%
June 15, 2012 US Industrial Production % Apr-12 1.09 0.10
June 18, 2012 India RBI Repo rate % - 8.00 --
India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % - 4.75 --
India RBI Reverse Repo rate % - 7.00 --
June 19, 2012 UK CPI (YoY) % Change Apr-12 3.00 --
US Housing Starts Thousands Apr-12 717.00 725.00
US Building permits Thousands Apr-12 723.00 730.00
June 20, 2012 UK Jobless claims change % Change Apr-12 (13.70) --
US FOMC rate decision % Apr-12 0.25 --
June 21, 2012 Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Jun-12 45.20 --
Euro-Zone Consumer
Euro Zone Value May-12 (19.30) --
Confidence
US Existing home sales Millions Apr-12 4.62 4.57
June 23, 2012 Germany PMI Services Value May-12 51.80 --
June 25, 2012 US New home sales Thousands Apr-12 343.00 --
S.A./
June 26, 2012 US Consumer Confidence May-12 64.90 --
1985=100
June 28, 2012 Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands May-12 -- --
US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change Mar-12 1.90 --
UK GDP (YoY) % Change Mar-12 (0.10) --
July 01, 2012 China PMI Manufacturing Value May-12 50.40 --
July 02, 2012 India Imports YoY% % Change Apr-12 3.80 --
India Exports YoY% % Change Apr-12 3.20 --
UK PMI Manufacturing Value May-12 45.90 --
July 05, 2012 UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Jun-12 0.50 0.50
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Jun-12 1.00 --
July 06, 2012 US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands May-12 69.00 --
US Unnemployment rate % May-12 8.20 --
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
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