1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | IT
July 30, 2010
Tech Mahindra BUY
CMP Rs700
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs950
(Rs cr) 1QFY11 4QFY10 %chg (qoq) 1QFY10 %chg (yoy) Investment Period 12 Months
Net revenue 1,134 1,183 (4.2) 1,113 1.9
EBITDA margin (%) 18.8 23.6 (4.8) 25.2 (6.4) Stock Info
PAT 144 227 (36.4) 132 9.7 Sector IT
Source: Company, Angel Research Market Cap (Rs cr) 8,682
Tech Mahindra’s lackluster 1QFY2011 performance: Tech Mahindra reported a Beta 0.9
4.2% qoq revenue decline for 1QFY2011, though revenue was up 1.9% yoy, 52 Week High / Low 1,158/617
despite 2.5% qoq growth in volumes and stable pricing. This was mainly on Avg. Daily Volume 176247
account of adverse currency headwinds and slower client decision making.
Face Value (Rs) 10
Moreover, during the quarter, there was absence of pass-through revenue worth
~US $7mn, which the company registered in 4QFY2010. The BT as well as the BSE Sensex 17,868
non-BT businesses witnessed sequential declines of 6% (down 12% yoy) and 2% Nifty 5,368
(up 16.7% yoy), respectively. Geography-wise, growth was led by strong traction
Reuters Code TEML.BO
in North America. The company added four new clients during the quarter, taking
its total active client account to 117. The EBITDA margin contracted by 480bp qoq Bloomberg Code TECHM@IN
(640bp yoy) to 18.8% during the quarter. Out of the 480bp decline, 230bp qoq
decline was on account of the adverse currency movement during 1QFY2011.
Thus, on account of subdued operational performance, net income during the Shareholding Pattern (%)
quarter was down by 36.4% qoq (up 9.7% yoy) to Rs144.3cr. Promoters 73.8
Outlook and valuation: We expect Tech Mahindra to record a 9.6% CAGR in its MF / Banks / Indian Fls 17.0
top line over FY2010–12E (excluding Mahindra Satyam). However, given the FII / NRIs / OCBs 1.6
uncertainty looming over the BT business, adverse currency movements,
aggressive hiring and negative macro-economic indicators, we believe the Indian Public / Others 7.7
company’s profitability will be subdued further considering the margin erosion.
Thus, we expect the bottom line to decline at a 1.1% CAGR over FY2010–12E.
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
We have valued Tech Mahindra on an SOTP basis, valuing Tech Mahindra
(excluding Satyam) at 13x, at a 40% discount to our Infosys target multiple of 21x Sensex 1.8 16.1 17.1
(historical discount of 17%), and valuing Satyam’s stake at Rs234 per share based Tech M (9.5) (17.6) (47.6)
on a market cap basis, and applying a 30% holding company discount to arrive
at a Target Price of Rs950. Hence, though we continue to maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock, we revise the Target Price to Rs950 (from Rs1,168
earlier).
Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net sales 4,465 4,625 4,858 5,554
% chg 3.6 5.0 14.3 13.4
Net profit 1,089 709 656 693
% chg 207.5 (31.0) (6.3) 5.8
EBITDA margin (%) 29.0 24.5 19.5 18.6
EPS (Rs) 77.9 53.7 50.3 53.2
P/E (x) 9.0 13.0 13.9 13.2
P/BV (x) 4.4 3.3 2.6 2.1
RoE (%) 63.0 30.5 21.9 18.5
RoCE (%) 85.9 76.7 67.7 56.9 Vibha Salvi
EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.9 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 329
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.7 5.3 5.9 4.9 vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
2. Tech Mahindra | 1Q FY2011Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 - Consolidated financial performance
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 4QFY10 % chg 1QFY10 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg
(qoq) (yoy)
Net Revenue 1,134 1,183 (4.2) 1,113 1.9 4,625 4,465 3.6
Cost of Revenue 745.8 737 1.2 683.8 9.1 2,871 2,571 11.7
Gross Profit 388 446 (13.0) 429 (9.6) 1,754 1,894 (7.4)
SG&A Expenses 175.2 167 4.9 148.7 17.8 622 612 1.7
Operating Profit (EBITDA) 213 279 (23.8) 281 (24.2) 1,133 1,283 (11.7)
Other Income 25 74 (65.8) (26.1) 75 (38)
Interest 26 31 (14.9) 57.1 (53.8) 218 3
Depreciation 35 40 (11.5) 29.6 19.6 134 110 22.1
Income before Income Taxes 176 282 (37.5) 168 5.1 856 1,133 (24.5)
Tax 31 54 (42.2) 26.8 16.5 144 118 22.1
Minority Interest (1) (1) (0.8) (3) (0)
Extraordinary Items 0 0 (8.5) (9) -
Net Income 144 227 (36.4) 132 9.7 700 1,015 (31.0)
Diluted EPS (Rs) 11.1 17.4 (36.4) 10.8 2.1 53.7 77.9 (31.0)
Gross Profit Margin (%) 34.2 37.7 38.6 37.9 42.4
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.8 23.6 25.2 24.5 28.7
Net Profit Margin (%) 12.7 19.2 11.8 15.1 22.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Top-line growth affected by adverse currency movement
Tech Mahindra reported a 4.2% qoq revenue decline for 1QFY2011, though
revenue was up 1.9% yoy, despite 2.5% qoq growth in volumes and stable
pricing. This was mainly on account of adverse currency headwinds and slower
client decision making. Moreover, during the quarter, there was absence of pass-
through revenue worth ~US $7mn, which the company registered in 4QFY2010.
The BT as well as the non-BT businesses witnessed sequential declines of 6%
(down 12% yoy) and 2% (up 16.7% yoy), respectively.
Segment-wise, the company’s three businesses, telecom service providers,
telecom equipment manufacturer and BPO, declined by 6.6%, 5.9% and 0.8%,
respectively. The slight decline in the BPO business was mainly due to adverse
GBP v/s INR movement during the quarter.
Tech Mahindra added four new clients during the quarter, taking its total active
client account to 117. However, client contribution of the Top, Top-5 and Top-10
clients declined by 6%, 1.5% and 3%, respectively.
Geography-wise, growth was led by North America, which grew by 2.2% qoq
(12.4% yoy). Europe and Rest of World geographies declined by 7.5% qoq (8.2%
yoy) and 4.2% qoq (up 32.4% yoy), respectively. However, despite the European
crisis, the company acquired one client during the quarter.
July 30, 2010 2
3. Tech Mahindra | 1Q FY2011Result Update
Exhibit 2: Revenue mix trend
750
700
650
600
550
500
Rs cr
450
400
350
300
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
BT Revenue Non BT Revenue
Source: Company Data, Angel Research
Adverse GBP movement eroded EBITDA margin
The EBITDA margin contracted by 480bp qoq (640bp yoy) to 18.8% during the
quarter. Out of the 480bp decline, 230bp qoq decline was on account of the
adverse currency movement, as the GBP depreciated by 5% qoq v/s the INR
during the quarter. The remaining EBITDA margin decline can be attributed to
the dip in utilisation as the company induced a strong campus hiring program
during the quarter. Further, the average headcount cost was significantly higher
in 1QFY2011 compared to 4QFY2010 on account of variable pay and an
increase in overseas headcount.
However, the company witnessed net addition of only 1,743 employees (the total
employee count touched 35,267 as of 1QFY2011), as the annualised quarterly
attrition rate jumped up to 27% (one of the highest amongst peers) on account of
employees leaving for higher studies and improved career opportunities due to
the buoyant economy.
Exhibit 3: EBITDA margin trend
35
33
31
29
27
25
%
23
21
19
17
15
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
Source: Company Data, Angel Research
July 30, 2010 3
4. Tech Mahindra | 1Q FY2011Result Update
Margin erosion led to a decline in profitability
During the quarter, other income was down by 65.8% qoq mainly on account of
lower forex gain of US $5mn v/s US $13.5mn in 4QFY2010. Interest cost was
down 15% qoq (54% yoy) on account of restructuring of debt done at a lower
interest rate in the earlier quarters. The deprecation cost was down 11.5% qoq
(up 19.6% yoy); however, the tax rate slipped to 17.7% in 1QFY2011 compared
to 19.2% in 4QFY2010. Thus, mainly on account of subdued operational
performance, net income during the quarter was down by 36.4% qoq (up 9.7%
yoy) to Rs144.3cr.
Management’s guidance for 2QFY2011 and FY2011
The management continued to guide towards a sustained quarterly revenue
run-rate of GBP70mn–72mn from BT for the foreseeable future. The company
has given wage hike with effect from July 1, 2010, in line with peers, which
would impact the EBITDA margin in 2QFY2011. However, the company expects
to mitigate this impact through other operating levers and strong volume growth.
Though the present higher attrition rate is a cause of concern for the company,
management is focusing on aggressive campus hiring and fresher hiring in
anticipation of a strong business pipeline during FY2011. Through hiring of
freshers, the company aims at lowering its per unit cost of delivery going
forward. Thus, through focusing on lowering down the SG&A expenses,
improving utilisation levels (from current 69%) and hiring freshers, the company
expects to maintain its EBITDA margin in a narrow band, thereby absorbing
salary hikes and the adverse impact of currency movement during FY2011.
July 30, 2010 4
5. Tech Mahindra | 1Q FY2011Result Update
Investment Arguments
Growth to be led by volumes with large transformational deals in the pipeline
Management is currently seeing strong traction and pursuing some large
transformational deals in North America (average size of these deals range from
US $25mn–75mn for a period of five years). India and Asia-Pacific geographies
are witnessing an uptick due to improved demand. However, only Europe is
witnessing slower and smaller deal closure on account of slower decision-making
cycles of clients. Thus, we believe the company’s growth will be led by strong
volume ramp ups, with key deals in the pipeline despite the price cut taken in the
BT deal with assured volumes.
Outlook and valuation
We expect Tech Mahindra to record a 9.6% CAGR in its top line over FY2010–
12E (excluding Mahindra Satyam). However, given the uncertainty looming over
the BT business, adverse currency movements, aggressive hiring and negative
macro-economic indicators, we believe the company’s profitability will be
subdued further considering the margin erosion. Thus, we expect the bottom line
to decline at a 1.1% CAGR over FY2010–12E.
We have valued Tech Mahindra on an SOTP basis, valuing Tech Mahindra
(excluding Satyam) at 13x, at a 40% discount to our Infosys target multiple of 21x
(historical discount of 17%), and valuing Satyam’s stake at Rs234 per share
based on a market cap basis, and applying a 30% holding company discount to
arrive at a Target Price of Rs950. Hence, though we continue to maintain our Buy
recommendation on the stock. We revise the Target Price to Rs950 (from Rs1,168
earlier).
Exhibit 4: SOTP valuation
Rs cr
Tech Mahindra MCAP (as on July 30, 2010) 8,682
Value of Stake in Satyam (@42.7%) 4,340
Assuming 30% discount 2,995
MCAP of Tech Mahindra (excluding Satyam) 5,688
FY2012 Net Profit of Tech Mahindra (excluding Satyam) 693
Current PE of Tech Mahindra 8
FY2012 Tech Mahindra Target Multiple (excluding Satyam) 13
Tech Mahindra Target MCAP (excluding Satyam) 9,188
Value of Satyam Stake 2,995
Tech Mahindra MCAP (including Satyam) 12,183
O/S Equity as of FY2012
12.8
Target Price (Rs) 950
July 30, 2010 5
6. Tech Mahindra | 1Q FY2011Result Update
Exhibit 5: Key assumptions
FY2011E FY2012E
Growth in BT business (8.9) 0.6
Growth in Non-BT business 18.0 24.3
Total revenue growth (in US $ terms) 7.0 13.1
INR-USD rate (realised) 46.5 47.0
INR-GBP rate (realised) 70.0 71.0
Total revenue growth (in INR terms) 5.0 14.3
EBITDA margin (%) 19.5 18.6
Tax rate (%) 18.0 24.0
EPS growth (%) (6.3) (4.0)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: Change in estimates
FY2011E FY2012E
Parameter Earlier Revised Var. Earlier Revised Var.
(Rs cr) estimates estimates (%) estimates estimates (%)
Net revenue 4,989 4,858 (2.6) 5,704 5,554 (2.6)
EBITDA 1,198 949 (20.8) 1,314 1,031 (21.5)
PBT 930 800 (14.0) 1,109 899 (18.9)
Tax 167 144 (14.0) 233 217 (6.7)
PAT 763 656 (14.0) 876 682 (22.1)
Source: Company, Angel Research
We believe adverse currency movement and weak macro-economic indicators
would result in lower-than-expected top-line growth during FY2011E and
FY2012E. Further, the pricing pressure looming over the BT business, aggressive
hiring and other expansion-related operational costs are expected to deride the
company’s profitability as compared to our earlier estimates.
July 30, 2010 6
12. Tech Mahindra | 1Q FY2011Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement (Company name) Tech Mahindra
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
July 30, 2010 12
