Rallis India reported a 14.7% increase in revenue to Rs. 368 crore for the second quarter of FY2011, which was below Angel Research's estimate. EBITDA margin was 24.3%, higher than estimated due to lower other expenses. Net profit increased 28.4% to Rs. 59 crore, in line with estimates. Domestic sales grew 18% by volume due to good monsoons. Management expects the domestic agrochemical industry to grow 12-15% for the quarter. Rallis maintained its FY2011-12 estimates of 21% sales and 36% profit CAGR. The stock trades at 15x estimated FY2012 EPS.
Monthly Market Risk Update: April 2024 [SlideShare]
Rallis India - RU2QFY2011
1. 2QFY2011 Result Update| Agrichemical
October 18, 2010
Rallis India NEUTRAL
CMP `1,412
Performance Highlights Target Price -
(` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy Angel Est % Diff Investment Period -
Revenue 368.0 320.9 14.7 407.1 (9.6) Stock Info
EBITDA 88.3 74.5 18.4 91.1 (3.1) Agrichemical
Sector
EBITDA margin (%) 24.3 23.5 80bp 22.4 190bp Market Cap (Rs cr) 2,648
Reported PAT 58.7 45.7 28.4 58.4 0.4 Beta 0.6
Source: Company, Angel Research 52 Week High / Low 1590/550
Rallis India’s 2QFY2011 results were broadly in line with our estimates. Total Avg. Daily Volume 12408
sales grew 14.7% to `368cr, which was 10% below our estimate of `407.1cr. Face Value (Rs) 10
However, EBITDA margin came in at 24.3%, 190bp ahead of our estimates. BSE Sensex 20,169
Normal monsoon aids growth: Overall domestic industry turned in good Nifty 6,076
performance on the back of normal monsoons (2% ahead of long-term average). Reuters Code RALL.BO
Sowing across the country has been good, but for few crops like maize and Bloomberg Code RALI@IN
sunflower, which witnessed decline in area. The domestic agrichemical industry is
expected to have grown at 12-15% during the quarter. Rallis India (RAIL) recorded
18-19% growth in volume during 2QFY2011, while recording price erosion Shareholding Pattern (%)
of 2-3%. Promoters 50.7
Lower other expense helps improve OPM: For 2QFY2011, RAIL reported lower MF / Banks / Indian Fls 20.1
gross margin of 41.9% (43.4%) owing to price erosion in key products. The FII / NRIs / OCBs 3.6
company however, reported EBITDA margin of 24.3% for the quarter, which was Indian Public / Others 25.6
ahead of our estimate by 190bp and came on the back of high operating
leverage.
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Outlook and Valuation: Given that monsoons have been normal, industry is
expected to continue to register healthy growth in FY2011. As a result, with RAIL Sensex 13.0 17.0 6.0
being a major player in the domestic market, we expect it to grow at a higher Rallis India 26.0 121.0 355.0
pace than industry. We maintain our estimates and expect the company to
register a CAGR of 21% and 36% in net sales and profit over FY2010-12,
respectively. Post out-performing the Sensex by 104% over the last one year, at
current levels, the stock is trading at fair valuations of 15x FY2012E EPS. Hence,
we remain Neutral on the stock.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 856 901 1,103 1,324
% chg 26.9 5.2 22.5 20.0
Net Profit 64 99 143 184
% chg 110.2 53.8 44.9 28.5
EBITDA (%) 16.0 19.4 19.1 18.4
EPS (`) 35.7 50.7 73.5 94.4
P/E (x) 39.5 27.9 19.2 15.0
P/BV (x) 9.7 6.5 5.3 4.4
RoE (%) 19.6 25.5 30.4 32.1
RoCE (%) 28.9 36.2 39.5 37.6 Sageraj Bariya
EV/Sales (x) 2.9 2.9 2.4 1.9 +91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 346
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.4 15.1 12.4 10.5 sageraj.bariya@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
2. Rallis India | 2QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg
Net Revenues 368 321 14.7 571 487 17.1
Raw material cost 211 179 17.8 333 280 18.8
Gross Profit 157 142 10.8 238 207 14.9
Gross margin 43 44 42 42
Employee Expenses 18 16 37 33
as % of sales 5 5 6 7
Other expenditure 50 52 90 80
as % of sales 14 16 16 16
Total Expenditure 280 246 460 393
Operating Profit 88 75 18.4 111 94 17.9
OPM (%) 24.3 23.5 19.8 19.6
Depreciation 4 4 8 8
EBIT 84 70 103 86
EBIT (%) 23 22 18 18
Other income 1 1 3 2
Interest 0 1 -1 1
PBT (excl of Ext items) 85 71 20.7 107 88 22.1
Ext items 0 2 0 4
PBT (incl of Ext items) 85 69 107 84
Tax 27 23 34 28
Reported PAT 59 46 28.4 74 55 33.4
Adj PAT 59 48 74 60
Report EPS (`) 30.1 23.4 28.4 37.7 28.3 33.4
Adj EPS (`) 30.1 24.7 21.9 37.7 30.6 23.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
Sales growth below estimates
RAIL posted top-line growth of 14.7% to `368cr, which was marginally below our
estimate of `407cr. Top-line was driven by the company’s robust performance in
the domestic market (18% volume growth) that witnessed strong demand for
pesticides along with revival in exports. The company launched three new products
under its domestic segment during the quarter. However, overall domestic industry
lost some sales due to the continuous rains it resulted in lower spraying by the
farmers.
October 18, 2010 2
3. Rallis India | 2QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 2: Total Revenue performance
400 22 25
320 20
14 15
13 15
240
( `cr)
10
(%)
160
5
80 0
(3)
0 (5)
2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
Total Revenue % YoY
Source: Company, Angel Research
Lower other expense helps improve OPM
For 2QFY2011, RAIL reported lower gross margin of 41.9% (43.4%) owing to price
erosion in key products. The company however, reported EBITDA margin of 24.3%
for the quarter, which was ahead of our estimate by 190bp and came on the back
of high operating leverage.
Exhibit 3: Margin trend Exhibit 4: Other expense declines
50 43 45
42 42 60 21 25
38 20
40 50 20
16
40 14 14
30
15
(%)
(`cr)
(%)
30
20 24 10
24
21 21 20
10 5
10
12
0 0 0
2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
Gross margin EBITDA Other exp Other exp as % of sales
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research
Earnings growth in line with estimates
Reported PAT for the quarter came in line with our estimates registering 28.4% yoy
growth to `59cr (`46cr) on the back of higher EBITDA margins.
October 18, 2010 3
4. Rallis India | 2QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 5: PAT trend
70 160
59
60
46 120
50
40
(` cr)
80
(%)
30 24 25
20 15
40
10
0 0
2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
PAT % YoY
Source: Company, Angel Research
Management meet - Key takeaways
Overall domestic industry turned in good performance on the back of normal
monsoons (2% ahead of long-term average). Sowing across the country has
been good, but for few crops like maize and sunflower, which witnessed
decline in area. The domestic agrichemical industry is expected to have grown
at 12-15% during the quarter. RAIL recorded 18-19% growth in volume during
2QFY2011, while recording price erosion of 2-3%.
Domestic formulation sales crossed the `100cr mark in September 2010
aided by launch of three products: (a) Tarak - a post emergence herbicide for
rice/paddy, (b) Ralligold -a plant growth nutrient for crops like cotton,
groundnut, paddy, vegetables, soybean and pulses and (c) Toran – an
insecticide for cotton.
The Dahej plant commenced trail run operation; commercial production
would begin by end of 3QFY2011.
Given the company’s healthy cash flows and robust cash position (~`150cr),
management stated that it would look around for suitable acquisition in agri-
related business.
RAIL is evaluating entry into the complex fertiliser business, where Tata
Chemical’s (TCL) is currently undertaking test marketing through its Babaral
plant. If TCL emerges successful, RAIL plans to set up a similar plant and
market the products in the southern and western parts of India; North and
eastern regions are being catered to by TCL.
October 18, 2010 4
5. Rallis India | 2QFY2011 Result Update
Investment Arguments
Set to seize rising opportunities in the domestic pesticides market: India's overall
pesticides consumption is one of the lowest in the world, and we believe that RAIL
is well-placed to seize this opportunity on the back of its wide distribution network,
strong brands and robust new product pipeline. According to industry estimates,
the unorganised market accounts for another 50% of the industry. Nonetheless, we
believe that RAIL is in a position to wrest market share as well as charge a
premium for its products.
Exports to register steady growth: Closing down of capacity in China before the
Olympics 2008 and MNCs diversifying their base to India had resulted in the
company’s exports spiking 80% in FY2009 to `295cr. The scenario has however
changed post the Olympics and many closed capacities have come on stream and
commodities prices have strong corrected due to which export decline by 35% in
FY2010. Against this backdrop, we estimate RAIL to post a CAGR of 40% in
exports over FY2010-12E.
Contract manufacturing to be next growth driver: RAIL plans to focus on CM for
Exports and selectively target and supply to the top players. To facilitate the same,
the company is setting up a new plant at Dahej. Overall, RAIL targets to achieve
cumulative Revenues of `1,000cr over the next five years from this segment alone.
Outlook and Valuation
Given that monsoons have been normal, industry is expected to continue to
register healthy growth in FY2011. As a result, with RAIL being a major player in
the domestic market, we expect it to grow at a higher pace than industry. We
maintain our estimates and expect the company to register a CAGR of 21% and
36% in net sales and profit over FY2010-12, respectively. Post out-performing the
Sensex by 104% over the last one year, at current levels, the stock is trading at fair
valuations of 15x FY2012E EPS. Hence, we remain Neutral on the stock.
Exhibit 6: Key Assumptions
FY11E FY12E Comment
Domestic Growth (%) 18.0 15.0 Robust volume growth on account of normal monsoon
Export Growth (%) 46.0 35.0 Revival in exports, lower inventory in LAT-AM markets
Total Revenue Growth (%) 22.8 20.0
Gross Margin (%) 39.7 38.8 Higher penetration to see marginal reduction in prices
EBITDA Margin 19.1 18.4 Higher contribution from low-margin contract manufacturing business
Tax rate (%) 32.2 23.4 Lower rate due to SEZ benefit
Source: Company, Angel Research
October 18, 2010 5
12. Rallis India | 2QFY2011 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Rallis India
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
October 18, 2010 12