Infosys reported a 4.3% quarter-over-quarter growth in revenues to Rs. 6,198 crore for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, backed by a 7.6% growth in volumes. However, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins fell by 1.8% due to annual wage hikes. Infosys revised its fiscal year 2011 revenue growth guidance upwards from 16-18% to 19-21% in rupee terms and maintained its earnings per share growth guidance of 7.2-11.5%. The growth was broad-based across services and verticals led by the banking, financial services and insurance sector.
Unveiling the Top Chartered Accountants in India and Their Staggering Net Worth
Infosys - Result Update
1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | IT
July 14, 2010
Infosys ACCUMULATE
CMP Rs2,742
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs2,900
(Rs in cr) 1QFY11 4QFY10 %chg (qoq) 1QFY10 %chg (yoy) Investment Period 12 Months
Net Reveneus 6,198 5,944 4.3 5,472 13.3
*EBIT Margins (%) 28.3 30.1 (1.8) 30.0 (1.7) Stock Info
PAT 1488 1,600 (7.0) 1,525 (2.4) Sector IT
Source: Company, Angel Research; IFRS financials in rupee term; Market Cap (Rs cr) 156,860
Beta 0.8
Performance backed by healthy volume growth: Infosys’s consolidated
top-line for 1QFY2011 was in line with our estimates. In rupee terms, top-line 52 Week High / Low 2,911/1,751
grew 4.3% qoq to Rs6,198cr, while in US dollar terms, the growth was 4.8% Avg. Daily Volume 151107
qoq to US $1358mn. The growth was backed by volumes, which were up Face Value (Rs) 5
7.6% qoq, while the blended pricing was lower by 1.6% qoq. However, on
account of the annual wage hike, EBIT margins fell by 178bp qoq to 28.3%, BSE Sensex 17,938
while the PAT declined by 7.0% qoq to Rs1,488cr on account of higher tax Nifty 5,386
rate. Reuters Code INFY.BO
FY2011E guidance revised upwards: Infosys has revised its FY2011E revenue Bloomberg Code INFO@IN
growth guidance from the earlier 16-18% to 19-21% yoy, and EPS growth
from the earlier 9-4.3% to 5-10% yoy in US dollar terms. In rupee terms also,
the revenue growth guidance has been revised upwards from the earlier Shareholding Pattern (%)
9-11% to 16-18% yoy, and EPS growth guidance from the earlier Promoters 16.1
(2.6%)-1.4% to 7.2-11.5% yoy.
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 14.1
Outlook and Valuation: We expect Infosys to register CAGR of 19% in FII / NRIs / OCBs 55.3
top-line over FY2010-12E backed by 17% CAGR in volumes. However, EPS is Indian Public / Others 14.5
likely to register subdued CAGR of 12.6% during the period on account of
lower EBIT margins and increased tax rate. The stock is currently trading at
23.2x FY2011E EPS of Rs118 and 19.9x FY2012E EPS of Rs138. Though
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
adverse macro economic factors like the Europe crisis and cross-currency
movements are cause for concern for the IT companies, we believe growth Sensex 0.7 63.6 17.5
will be sustained through volumes with pricing remaining stable. Thus, we Infosys (1.4) 51.8 41.3
have valued the stock at 21x FY2012E earnings, which is at ~25% premium
to Sensex PE of 17x FY2012E earnings (Infosys has traded at an average
premium of ~25% to the Sensex PE during FY2005-10) and maintain our
Accumulate rating on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs2,900.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 21,693 22,742 26,916 32,042
% chg 30.0 4.8 18.4 19.0
Net Profit 5,975 6,219 6,735 7,882
% chg 28.2 4.1 8.3 17.0
EBIT Margin (%) 29.6 30.4 29.5 29.0
FDEPS (Rs) 104.7 108.9 118.0 138.0
P/E (x) 26.3 25.2 23.2 19.9
P/BV (x) 8.2 6.5 5.4 4.6
RoE (%) 36.2 28.7 25.5 25.0
RoCE (%) 41.8 36.5 33.9 33.1
Vibha Salvi
EV/Sales (x) 6.7 6.3 5.2 4.2 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 329
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.7 20.9 17.6 14.6 vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
2. IT | 1Q FY2011Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 Performance (Consolidated, IFRS)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2011 FY2010 % chg FY2010 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg
1Q 4Q (qoq) 1Q (yoy)
Net Revenues 6,198 5,944 4.3 5,472 13.3 22,742 21,693 4.8
Software Development Expenses 3,648 3,415 6.8 3,139 16.2 13,020 12,535 3.9
Gross Profit 2,550 2,529 0.8 2,333 9.3 9,722 9,158 6.2
SG&A Expenses 795 740 7.4 689 15.4 2,812 2,737 2.7
EBIT 1,755 1,789 (1.9) 1,644 6.8 6,910 6,421 7.6
Other Income 239 252 (5.2) 269 (11.2) 990 473 109.3
Income before Income Taxes 1,994 2,041 (2.3) 1,913 4.2 7,900 6,894 14.6
Tax 506 441 14.7 388 30.4 1,681 919 82.9
Net Income 1,488 1,600 (7.0) 1,525 (2.4) 6,219 5,975 4.1
Diluted EPS (Rs) 26.1 28.0 (7.0) 26.7 (2.5) 108.9 104.7 4.0
Gross Profit Margin (%) 41.1 42.5 42.6 42.7 42.2
EBIT Margin (%) 28.3 30.1 30.0 30.4 29.6
Net Profit Margin (%) 24.0 26.9 27.9 27.3 27.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 1QFY2011 – Actual v/s Angel estimates
(Rs cr) Estimates Actual Variation (%)
Net Revenues 6,129 6,198 1.1
*EBIT Margin (%) 29.9 28.3 (1.5)
PAT 1,550 1488 (4.0)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Broad-based growth across services and verticals driven by volumes
Infosys recorded a 4.3% qoq (13.3% yoy) growth in top-line for 1QFY2011
backed by the 7.6% qoq growth in volumes, despite a 1.6% qoq dip in
blended pricing and negative impact of 0.7% qoq appreciation in the rupee
vis-à-vis the US dollar. The adverse cross-currency movement also restrained
further growth in top-line as the rupee continued to appreciate even against
the euro and GBP by 8.6% and 5.1% respectively, during the quarter.
Exhibit 3: 1QFY2011 - Infosys guidance v/s actual performance
1QFY2011 IFRS Guidance range Performance
In rupee term
Revenues (Rs cr) 5,919-5,963 6,198
EPS (Rs) 24.34-24.79 26.05
In US dollar terms
Revenues (US $mn) 1,330-1,340 1,358
Basic EPADS (US$) 0.55-0.56 0.57
Source: Company, Angel Research
The growth was led by a strong sequential growth of 21.7%, 15.3% and 7.4%
in Product Engineering services (PES), Testing and ADM (application
development and maintenance) services, respectively. Verticals-wise, Infosys
witnessed strong growth of 8.2% in BFSI led by the 13.8% growth recorded in
the Insurance domain, while the Energy & Utilities and Retail verticals grew by
7.9% and 5.9%, respectively.
July 14, 2010 2
3. IT | 1Q FY2011Result Update
Exhibit 4: Services-wise revenue break-up
Particulars (Rs cr) 1QFY11 4QFY10 1QFY10 % chg % chg
qoq yoy
Application Development &
2,529 2,354 2,326 7.4 8.7
Maintenance
Development 1,047 999 1,056 4.9 (0.8)
Maintenance 1,481 1,355 1,270 9.3 16.7
Business Process
353 369 334 (4.1) 5.8
Management
Consulting and Package
1,543 1,545 1,335 (0.1) 15.6
Implementation
Infrastructure Management 428 428 361 (0.1) 18.4
Testing Services 452 392 339 15.3 33.4
Product Engineering Services 130 107 131 21.7 (0.9)
Systems Integration 260 267 208 (2.7) 25.2
Others 211 184 219 14.4 (3.7)
Total services 5,907 5,647 5,253 4.6 12.4
Products 291 297.2 219 (2.0) 33.1
Total revenues 6,198 5,944 5,472 4.3 13.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Vertical-wise revenue break-up
Particulars (Rs cr) 1QFY11 4QFY10 1QFY10 % chg % chg
qoq yoy
BFSI 2,237 2,069 1,806 8.2 23.9
Insurance 521 458 389 13.8 34.0
Banking & Financial Services 1,717 1,611 1,417 6.6 21.1
Manufacturing 1,209 1,201 1,122 0.7 7.7
Retail 818 773 722 5.9 13.3
Telecom 874 909 925 (3.9) (5.5)
Energy & Utilities 372 345 312 7.9 19.2
Transportation & logistics 112 107 126 4.3 (11.4)
Services 298 291 268 2.1 11.0
Others 279 250 192 11.7 45.6
Total revenues 6,198 5,944 5,472 4.3 13.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
Geography-wise, strong growth was delivered by North America, India and
Rest of World, which grew by 6.2%, 26.6% and 11.6% respectively, on a qoq
basis. However, the 5.9% qoq decline in revenues from Europe on account of
the ongoing crisis restrained growth.
Exhibit 6: Geography-wise revenue break-up
Region (Rs cr) 1QFY11 4QFY10 1QFY10 % chg % chg
qoq yoy
North America 4,171 3,929 3,540 6.2 17.8
Europe 1,258 1,337 1,352 (5.9) (6.9)
India 105 83 49 26.6 113.9
Rest of the world 663 594 531 11.6 24.9
Total revenues 6,198 5,944 5,472 4.3 13.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 14, 2010 3
4. IT | 1Q FY2011Result Update
The company added 38 new clients during the quarter, of which 6 were from
banking product Finacle, taking the total active clients to 590. The company
added two US $100mn clients in 1QFY2011. The company also closed couple
of large deals during the quarter whereas few transformational deals are in the
pipeline. The Top-10 and -25 client accounts witnessed qoq growth of 6.6%
and 5.2% respectively, while repeat business contributed 99.4% of the revenues
compared to 95.4% in 4QFY2010.
Sustained rupee appreciation across currencies, salary hikes impact margins
During 1QFY2011, Infosys recorded a 178bp qoq (173bp yoy) contraction in
EBIT margin, of which ~ 300bp impact came from negative impact of
cross-currency movement and annual salary hikes effective during the quarter.
However, the 160bp qoq increase in utilisation to 78.7% excluding trainees
(utilisation including trainees was up by 370bp at 73%) during the quarter had
a positive impact of ~100bp on the margins.
In terms of operational costs, the negative impact on margins was on account
of the 140bp increase in employee costs, as the company incurred US $12mn
on visa costs during the quarter in addition to the salary hikes, while the
General & Administration expenses also went up by 50bp qoq.
Lower operational profitability, higher tax restrains bottom-line growth
Infosys reported 5.2% qoq (11.2% yoy) decline in other income mainly on
account of the forex loss of Rs81cr v/s gain of Rs97cr in 1QFY10. The tax rate
during the quarter also went up from 21.6% in 4QFY2010 to 25.4% in
1QFY2011 as ~80% of profits (compared to 70% taxable earlier) would come
under taxable income as the tax benefits availed earlier now phase out. Thus,
lower operational profitability and other income coupled with higher tax outgo
impacted bottom-line, which fell by 7% qoq (2.4% yoy).
Gross addition of 8,859 employees; High attrition
Infosys added a gross of 8,859 employees in 1QFY2011, while net additions
were 1,026 (vis-à-vis 3,914 employees in 4QFY2010). The company has
114,822 employees on its rolls as of 1QFY2011, and has revised upwards its
gross addition guidance from earlier 30,000 to 36,000 employees as on
1QFY11 expecting strong volume growth in FY2011E. The attrition rate
however stood high at 15.8% in 1QFY2011 on account of the overall
buoyancy in the job market with a strong economic recovery.
July 14, 2010 4
5. IT | 1Q FY2011Result Update
Exhibit 7: Quarterly attrition trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
Strong 2QFY2011E guidance
Although the company registered a subdued performance for 1QFY2011, it
has given a strong revenue growth guidance of 6-7% for 2QFY2011E, in
rupee terms backed by growth in volumes. The company also plans to make
gross employee addition of 14,000 in 2QF20Y11E. Margins are expected to
improve compared to 1QFY2011 as there will be no impact of the annual
wage hike, which has already happened in 1QFY2011. The company has
guided for 5-7% qoq growth in EPS.
FY2011E guidance revised upwards
Infosys has revised upwards FY2011E revenue growth guidance in US dollar
terms ranging between 19 - 21% yoy, and EPS growth to range between 5.2 -
9.6% yoy. In rupee terms, the revenue guidance ranges between Rs26,441 -
26,885cr, a yoy growth of 16.3 - 18.2%, and EPS ranges between Rs112.2 -
116.7, implying yoy growth of 7.2 -11.5%.
The company’s strong upward guidance is based on the robust client
feedback with improvement in the demand environment and infusion of
36,000 gross employees to deliver strong volume-backed growth with pricing
expected to remain stable.
Exhibit 8: 2QFY2011E, FY2011E guidance
Guidance 2QFY11E FY2011E Revised FY2011E
IFRS As on 4QFY10 As on 1QFY11
Revenues (Rs cr) 6,563-6,626 24,796-25,239 26,441-26,885
EPS (Rs) 27.42-27.95 106.82-111.28 112.21-116.73
IFRS
Revenues (US $bn) 1.41-1.43 5.57-5.67 5.72-5.81
Basic EPADS (US$) 0.59-0.60 2.40-2.50 2.42-2.52
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 14, 2010 5
6. IT | 1Q FY2011Result Update
Investment Arguments
Strong growth in US and emerging geographies to combat Europe crisis:
Though Europe continues to be a spoilt sport for the Indian IT industry till the
concerns wear out, some of the other levers for the company’s growth are the
recovery in the IT spend from the US and emerging geographies. The
company also expects to get increasing wallet share from its existing clients
and is witnessing improvement in IT spends more on offshore. Moreover to
combat the European concerns the company plans to proactively increase
investments in creating capabilities and hence plans for strong manpower
intake in FY2011. We expect growth to remain broad-based with key verticals
like BFSI, energy and utilities and high-margin services like consulting and
package implementation are expected to do well.
Strong volume led growth with stable pricing to maintain profitability
Though the cross-currency movement remains a concern, we expect the
company’s short-term hedging policy to arrest its impact on operational
profitability to a large extent. However, the increasing attrition rate is a cause
for concern. Hence, we expect employee cost to move up going forward to
retain the best of the talents, as the job opportunities are coming back with
buoyancy in the overall economy. However, on the back of strong
volume-backed growth and stable pricing, we believe that the company will
maintain the EBIT margins albeit in a narrow band going forward.
Outlook and Valuation
We expect Infosys to register CAGR of 19% in top-line over FY2010-12E
backed by 17% CAGR in volumes. However, EPS is likely to register subdued
CAGR of 12.6% during the period on account of lower EBIT margins and
increased tax rate. The stock is currently trading at 23.7x FY2011E EPS of
Rs118 and 20x FY2012E EPS of Rs138. Though adverse macro economic
factors like the Europe crisis and cross-currency movements are cause for
concern for the IT companies, we believe growth will be sustained through
volumes with pricing remaining stable. Thus, we have valued the stock at 21x
FY2012E earnings, which is at ~25% premium to Sensex PE of 17x FY2012E
earnings (Infosys has traded at an average premium of ~25% to the Sensex
PE during FY2005-10) and maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock, with
a Target Price of Rs2,900.
July 14, 2010 6
7. IT | 1Q FY2011Result Update
Exhibit 9: Key Assumptions
FY2011E FY2012E
Volume growth 18.6 15.2
Pricing growth 1 2
Revenue growth (in US $ terms) 20.4 17.9
USD-INR rate (realised) 46.5 47.0
Revenue growth (in Re terms) 18.4 19
Employee addition (Net) 13,639 12,000
EBIT margin (%) 29.5 29.0
Tax rate (%) 25 25
EPS growth (%) 8.3 17
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10: Change in Estimates
FY2011E FY2012E
Parameter Earlier Revised Variation Earlier Revised Variation
(Rs cr) Estimates Estimates (%) Estimates Estimates (%)
Net Revenues 25,524 26,916 5.5 31,071 32,042 3.1
EBIT (excl.
7,758 7,951 2.5 9,351 9,277 (0.8)
other income)
Other Income 1,166 1,029 (11.7) 1,476 1,233 (16.5)
PBT 8,924 8,980 0.6 10,827 10,510 (2.9)
Tax 2,231 2,245 0.6 2,815 2,627 (6.7)
PAT 6,693 6,735 0.6 8,012 7,882 (1.6)
Source: Company, Angel Research
In line with the upward revision in Infosys’s guidance for FY2011E and
expected higher infusion of gross manpower, we have also upgraded our
FY2011E and FY2012E top-line estimates. We however, expect other income
to be lower on account of the expected unfavourable cross-currency
movement. We estimate PAT to be slightly higher in FY2011E compared to
our earlier estimates, as volume growth would take care of lower margins.
However, PAT in FY2012E would be slightly lower than our earlier estimates,
as margins are expected to dip with the rise in employee costs to arrest higher
attrition.
Exhibit 11: Angel EPS forecast v/s consensus
Year (%) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation
FY2011E 118.0 121.7 (3.0)
FY2012E 138.0 144.9 (4.8)
Source: Company, Angel Research
July 14, 2010 7
12. IT | 1Q FY2011Result Update
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Disclosure of Interest Statement (Company name) Infosys
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
July 14, 2010 12