For 1QFY2011, NMDC reported a 97% increase in net sales to Rs2,518cr driven by higher iron ore realizations and sales volume. Net profit grew 94.4% to Rs1,504cr due to strong top-line growth. EBITDA margin expanded significantly by 726bps to 81.5% despite higher royalty charges. The company aims to increase production capacity to 50mn tonnes by FY2014-15 through mine expansion projects, however volume growth faces risks from ongoing Naxal activities in its mine areas. At the current market price, the stock trades at lower multiples compared to its historical averages.

1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | Mining
August 03, 2010
NMDC REDUCE
CMP Rs268
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs244
Particulars (Rs cr) 1QFY2011 1QFY2010 % chg (yoy) 4QFY2010 % chg (qoq) Investment Period 12 months
Net sales 2,518 1,278 97.0 1,983 27.0
EBITDA 2,051 948 116.3 1,379 48.7 Stock Info
% margin 81.5 74.2 726bp 69.5 1192bp Sector Mining
Net profit 1,504 774 94.4 1,066 41.1 Market Cap (Rs cr) 106,135
Source: Company, Angel Research Beta 0.8
52 Week High / Low 572/254
For 1QFY2011, NMDC reported net revenue of Rs2,518cr and net profit of
Avg. Daily Volume 413896
Rs1,504cr, driven by higher realisations and increased sales volume.
Face Value (Rs) 1
Strong top-line growth aided by higher realisations: NMDC’s net revenue grew by BSE Sensex 18,115
97% yoy to Rs2,518cr, mainly due to increased iron ore realisations and higher Nifty 5,440
sales volume. During 1QFY2011, iron ore production stood at 5.8mn tonnes.
Reuters Code NMDC.BO
NMDC sold 6.4mn tonnes of iron ore in 1QFY2011, up 19.8% yoy. While
Bloomberg Code NMDC@IN
domestic sales volume grew by 28.6% to 6mn tonnes, export sales volume
declined by 36.7% to 0.5mn tonnes. Average realisation for the quarter grew
75.4% yoy to US $86/tonne. NMDC increased the export price of lumps and fines
Shareholding Pattern (%)
by 94.37% yoy and 99.67% yoy, respectively, during 1QFY2011. Moreover,
Promoters 90.0
NMDC increased domestic prices of lumps by 45–54% and of fines by 76%. For
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 8.9
2QFY2011, NMDC has increased the domestic prices of fines by 14.77%. Royalty
charges on iron ore increased to Rs139cr in 1QFY2011 as compared to Rs11cr in FII / NRIs / OCBs 0.4
1QFY2010. Thus, led by strong top-line performance, EBITDA margin expanded Indian Public / Others 0.7
by 726bp yoy to 81.5%. Consequently, EBITDA grew by 116.3% yoy to Rs2,051cr
and net profit grew by 94.4% yoy to Rs1,504cr.
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Outlook and valuation: At the CMP of Rs268, the stock is trading at 10x FY2011E
Sensex 4.2 13.8 19.7
and 7.3x FY2012E EV/EBITDA and 5.4x FY2011E and 4.1x FY2012E P/BV,
NMDC (10.4) (25.5) 134.8
respectively. In our view, NMDC’s volume growth remains at risk in light of the
recent terror attacks by Naxals in the company’s mine areas. We maintain our
Reduce rating on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs244 (earlier Rs247),
valuing the stock at 7x FY2012E EV/EBITDA.
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net sales 7,564 6,239 10,979 14,232
% chg 32.4 (17.5) 76.0 29.6
Net profit 4,372 3,447 6,651 8,464
% chg 34.5 (21.2) 92.9 27.3
EPS (Rs) 11.0 8.7 16.8 21.3
EBITDA margin (%) 77.2 70.8 81.8 80.5
P/E (x) 24.3 30.8 16.0 12.5 Paresh Jain
P/BV (x) 9.1 7.4 5.4 4.1 Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 348
RoE (%) 43.9 26.6 39.3 37.1 pareshn.jain@angeltrade.com
RoCE (%) 57.7 33.4 52.2 49.2
Pooja Jain
EV/Sales (x) 12.7 15.0 8.1 5.9
Tel: 022-40403800 Ext: 311
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.5 21.1 10.0 7.3 pooja.j@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

2. NMDC | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 performance
Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 yoy % FY2010 FY2009 yoy %
Net sales 2,518 1,278 97.0 6,239 7,564 (17.5)
Raw material (23) 12 - 2 (127) -
% of net sales - 0.9 0.0 -
Consumption of stores
45 43 3.8 209 214 (1.9)
& spares
% of net sales 1.8 3.4 3.4 2.8
Staff cost 110 93 18.8 420 421 (0.4)
% of net sales 4.4 7.3 6.7 5.6
Other expenditure 335 183 83.6 1,189 1,219 (2.4)
% of net sales 13.3 14.3 19.1 16.1
Total expenditure 467 330 41.6 1,820 1,726 5.4
% of net sales 18.5 25.8 29.2 22.8
Operating profit 2,051 948 116.3 4,419 5,838 (24.3)
OPM% 81.5 74.2 70.8 77.2
Other operating income - - - - - -
EBITDA 2,051 948 116.3 4,419 5,838 (24.3)
EBITDA margins (%) 81.5 74.2 70.8 77.2
Interest - - - - - -
Depreciation 24 5 357.9 73 74 (0.5)
Other income 222 229 (3.1) 862 884 (2.5)
Exceptional items - - - - - -
PBT 2,249 1,172 91.9 5,207 6,648 (21.7)
% of net sales 89.3 91.7 83.5 87.9
Tax 745 398 87.0 1,760 2,276 (22.7)
% of PBT 33.1 34.0 33.8 34.2
PAT 1,504 774 94.4 3,447 4,372 (21.2)
% of net sales 59.7 60.5 55.3 57.8
EPS (Rs) 3.8 2.0 94.4 8.7 11.0 (21.2)
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 03, 2010 2

3. NMDC | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Result highlights
Strong top-line growth aided by higher realisations…
Average realisation for the quarter grew by 75.4% yoy to US $86/tonne. NMDC
increased the export price of lumps and fines by 94.36% and 99.67% yoy,
respectively, during the quarter. Moreover, NMDC increased domestic prices of
lumps by 45–54% and of fines by 76%. For 2QFY2011, the company has
increased the domestic prices of fines by 14.77%.
During the quarter, iron ore production stood at 5.8mn tonnes. The company sold
6.4mn tonnes of iron ore in 1QFY2011, higher by 19.8% yoy. While domestic
sales volume increased by 28.6% to 6mn tonnes, export sales volume declined by
36.7% to 0.5mn tonnes.
Consequently, net revenue grew by 97.0% yoy to Rs2,518cr primarily on account
of increased iron ore realisations and higher sales volume.
Exhibit 2: Net revenue grew by 97.0%
3,000 125
2,518
2,500 100
1,983 75
2,000
1,588 50
(Rs cr)
1,390
1,500 1,278
25
1,000
0
500 (25)
0 (50)
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Net revenue (LHS) yoy change (RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
…drives operating performance
Despite royalty charge on iron ore increasing to Rs139cr in 1QFY2011 as
compared to Rs11cr in 1QFY2010 as the government started charging royalty on
an ad valorem basis from 2QFY2010, EBITDA margin expanded by 726bp yoy to
81.5%, led by strong top-line performance. Thus, EBITDA increased by 116.3% yoy
to Rs2,051cr.
August 03, 2010 3

4. NMDC | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 3: EBITDA margin expands by 726bp
2,500 90
2,051
2,000
80
1,500 1,379
(Rs cr)
1,079 70
(%)
948 1,016
1,000
60
500
0 50
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
…leading to strong net profit growth
While depreciation expenses increased by 357.9% yoy to Rs24cr, other income
declined 3.1% yoy to Rs222cr. Thus, led by strong operational performance, net
profit increased by 94.4% yoy to Rs1,504cr.
Exhibit 4: Net profit grew by 94.4% yoy
1,600 1,504 62
1,400 60
1,200 1,066 58
1,000 860
774 771 56
(Rs cr)
800
(%)
54
600
400 52
200 50
0 48
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11
Net profit (LHS) Net profit margin (RHS)
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 03, 2010 4

5. NMDC | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Investment rationale
Increased production to 50mn tonnes by FY2014-15E
Management plans to ramp up its production capacity to 50mn tonnes by
FY2014-15E through increased exploration of its existing mines and development
of new mines, i.e., Deposit 11B and Deposit 13 in Bailadila and Kumaraswany in
Karnataka. The targeted cost for the development of the three mines is Rs2,400cr.
Exhibit 5: Expansion projects undertaken to increase mining capacity
Capacity Capex
Mine Location Date Comments
(mn tonnes) (Rs cr)
Original plan was October
2010, 56% completed till
Deposit 11B Bailadila 7 607 Mar-11
March 2010. Rs213cr
spent till March 2010
Deposit 13 Bailadila 10 - In a JV with CMDC
Kumaraswamy Karnataka 7 Mar-12
In a JV with CMDC, will
supply iron ore to the steel
Deposit 4 - 10 -
plant at Nagarnar near
Jagdalpur, Chhattisgarh
Source: Company, Angel Research
However, lately the company’s volumes have been impacted by ongoing Naxal
activities in the Dantewada region of Chhattisgarh.
Positioned at the lower end of the cost curve
NMDC's operating cost (excluding freight) of US $7.2/tonne is at the lower end of
the global iron ore cost curve. The company enjoys the benefit of low costs on
account of its mines’ close proximity to ports and railways. Considering the
additional capacity coming on stream, management also plans to invest Rs3,500cr
in building a 10mn tonne slurry pipeline from Bacheli to the Vizag port, which
would help it maintain margins.
Seeking to diversify into steel making and acquire mines abroad
Management intends to diversify its operations by moving downstream through the
establishment of steel plants and pellet plants. Accordingly, the company has lined
up capex of Rs26,500cr for the next five years. Of the total amount, management
plans to invest Rs15,500cr in setting up an integrated steel plant, while Rs1,400cr
would be incurred towards setting up two pellet plants. Moreover, majority of the
cash outflow will start from FY2013E. In addition, management has indicated its
plans to acquire mines in Australia, Brazil and South Africa.
August 03, 2010 5

6. NMDC | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Outlook and valuation
At the CMP of Rs268, the stock is trading at 10x FY2011E and 7.3x FY2012E
EV/EBITDA and 5.4x FY2011E and 4.1x FY2012E P/BV, respectively. In our view,
NMDC’s volume growth remains at risk in light of the recent terror attacks by
Naxals in the company’s mine areas. Consequently, we have revised our FY2011E
sales volume estimates downwards from 29mn tonnes to 27mn tonnes. We
maintain our Reduce rating on the stock with a revised Target Price of Rs244
(earlier Rs247), valuing the stock at 7x FY2012E EV/EBITDA.
Exhibit 6: Key assumptions
FY11E FY12E
Sales volume (mn tonnes) 27 35
Average realisation (US $/tonne) 87 87
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Change in estimates
(Rs cr) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Upgrade/(downgrade) (%)
FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
Net sales 11,793 14,232 10,979 14,232 (6.9) 0.0
EBITDA 9,721 11,550 8,985 11,460 (7.6) (0.8)
EBITDA margin (%) 82.4 81.2 81.8 80.5 (60bp) (63bp)
PBT 10,715 12,847 9,926 12,633 (7.4) (1.7)
Net income 7,179 8,607 6,651 8,464 (7.4) (1.7)
Net margin (%) 60.9 60.5 60.6 59.5 (30bp) (101bp)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8: EPS - Angel forecast vs. consensus
Year (%) Angel forecast Bloomberg consensus Variation (%)
FY11E 16.8 16.9 (0.5)
FY12E 21.3 20.0 6.6
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
August 03, 2010 6

7. NMDC | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 9: EV/EBITDA band
300,000
30x
250,000
24x
200,000
18x
(Rs cr)
150,000
12x
100,000
50,000 6x
0
Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 10: P/E band
800
700 40x
600
500 30x
(Rs)
400
20x
300
200 10x
100
0
Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 11: P/BV band
900
16x
800
700
12x
600
500
(Rs)
8x
400
300
200 4x
100
0
Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
August 03, 2010 7

8. NMDC | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Exhibit 12: Recommendation summary
Companies CMP Target Price Reco. Mcap Upside P/E (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%)
FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
SAIL 201 - Neutral 83,166 - 13.3 11.7 2.2 1.9 8.7 7.6 17.9 17.6 16.3 16.9
Tata Steel 547 697 Buy 48,494 27.4 9.0 9.6 1.5 1.3 6.8 6.2 17.9 14.7 11.8 11.7
JSW Steel 1,128 1,344 Buy 28,817 19.2 14.8 11.3 1.5 1.3 7.0 5.5 13.9 12.4 12.5 12.6
Sesa Goa 370 - Neutral 30,739 - 7.3 7.6 2.6 1.9 4.0 3.2 45.9 31.5 43.7 34.7
NMDC 268 244 Reduce 106,135 (8.9) 16.0 12.5 5.4 4.1 10.0 7.3 39.3 37.1 52.2 49.2
Hindalco 165 208 Buy 31,652 25.8 8.7 8.1 1.2 1.1 6.1 5.8 15.1 14.2 10.3 10.0
Nalco 425 316 Sell 27,370 (25.6) 26.9 22.7 2.5 2.3 15.5 12.2 9.7 10.7 10.7 12.5
Sterlite 179 228 Buy 59,976 27.7 12.5 9.1 1.4 1.2 6.7 4.6 11.6 14.2 11.1 14.1
Hindustan Zinc 1,077 1,227 Buy 45,488 14.0 11.2 8.6 2.1 1.7 6.4 4.1 20.4 21.6 20.7 22.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
August 03, 2010 8

9. NMDC | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Profit & Loss Statement
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net sales 4,186 5,711 7,564 6,239 10,979 14,232
Other operating income - - - - - -
Total operating income 4,186 5,711 7,564 6,239 10,979 14,232
% chg 12.8 36.4 32.4 (17.5) 76.0 29.6
Total expenditure 962 1,374 1,726 1,820 1,995 2,773
Net raw materials 164 145 86 211 243 362
Other mfg costs
Personnel 198 356 421 420 405 578
Other 600 874 1,219 1,189 1,347 1,833
EBITDA 3,224 4,337 5,838 4,419 8,985 11,460
% chg 20.1 34.5 34.6 (24.3) 103.3 27.5
(% of Net sales) 77.0 75.9 77.2 70.8 81.8 80.5
Depreciation 80 60 74 73 115 190
EBIT 3,144 4,277 5,764 4,346 8,870 11,270
% chg 22.3 36.1 34.8 (24.6) 104.1 27.1
(% of Net sales) 75.1 74.9 76.2 69.7 80.8 79.2
Interest charges - - - - - -
Other income 355 671 884 862 1,056 1,364
(% of PBT) 10.1 13.6 13.3 16.5 10.6 10.8
Share in profit of asso. - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 3,498 4,947 6,648 5,207 9,926 12,633
% chg 26.3 41.4 34.4 (21.7) 90.6 27.3
Extra. Inc/(Expense) - - - - - -
PBT (reported) 3,498 4,947 6,648 5,207 9,926 12,633
Tax 1,178 1,696 2,276 1,760 3,276 4,169
(% of PBT) 33.7 34.3 34.2 33.8 33.0 33.0
PAT (reported) 2,320 3,251 4,372 3,447 6,651 8,464
Add: Earnings of asso. - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest - - - - - -
Extra. Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 2,320 3,251 4,372 3,447 6,651 8,464
ADJ. PAT 2,320 3,251 4,372 3,447 6,651 8,464
% chg 26.9 40.1 34.5 (21.2) 92.9 27.3
(% of Net sales) 55.4 56.9 57.8 55.3 60.6 59.5
Basic EPS (Rs) 5.9 8.2 11.0 8.7 16.8 21.3
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 5.9 8.2 11.0 8.7 16.8 21.3
% chg 26.9 40.1 34.5 (21.2) 92.9 27.3
August 03, 2010 9

10. NMDC | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity share capital 132 132 396 396 396 396
Reserves & surplus 5,669 8,157 11,240 13,876 19,135 25,744
Shareholders’ funds 5,801 8,290 11,637 14,272 19,531 26,140
Share warrants - - - - - -
Minority interest - - - - - -
Total loans - - - - - -
Deferred tax liability 27 6 58 85 85 85
Total liabilities 5,828 8,296 11,695 14,357 19,616 26,225
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross block 1,304 1,421 1,669 1,771 2,771 3,771
Less: Acc.
799 853 923 984 1,099 1,289
depreciation
Net Block 505 568 747 787 1,673 2,482
Capital work-in-
113 112 248 556 556 556
progress
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 74 83 72 76 76 76
Current assets 5,526 8,283 11,771 14,264 18,609 24,599
Cash 4,849 7,199 9,740 12,855 16,696 22,292
Loans & advances 182 244 403 519 519 519
Other 494 840 1,628 890 1,394 1,789
Current liabilities 417 775 1,165 1,348 1,319 1,511
Net current assets 5,108 7,508 10,606 12,916 17,290 23,088
Mis. exp. not written
27 25 22 22 22 22
off
Total assets 5,828 8,296 11,695 14,357 19,616 26,225
August 03, 2010 10

11. NMDC | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Cash flow statement
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Profit before tax 3,498 4,947 6,648 5,207 9,926 12,633
Depreciation 80 60 74 73 115 190
Change in working
(190) (661) (785) 926 (533) (203)
capital
Less: Other income (101) (105) (866) (832) - -
Direct taxes paid (1,236) (1,765) (2,292) (1,770) (3,276) (4,169)
Cash flow from
2,052 2,476 2,778 3,604 6,233 8,451
operations
(Inc.)/ Dec. in fixed
(113) (123) (389) (422) (1,000) (1,000)
assets
(Inc.)/ Dec. in
- - - - - -
investments
(Inc.)/ Dec. in loans
- - - - - -
and advances
Other income 330 640 880 828 - -
Cash flow from
217 517 491 407 (1,000) (1,000)
investing
Issue of equity - - - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans - - - - - -
Dividend paid (529) (643) (728) (895) (1,392) (1,855)
Others (0) - - - - -
Cash flow from
(530) (643) (728) (895) (1,392) (1,855)
financing
Inc./(Dec.) in cash 1,740 2,350 2,541 3,115 3,841 5,596
Opening cash bal. 3,109 4,849 7,199 9,740 12,855 16,696
Closing cash bal. 4,849 7,199 9,740 12,855 16,696 22,292
August 03, 2010 11

12. NMDC | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Key ratios
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 45.7 32.6 24.3 30.8 16.0 12.5
P/CEPS 44.2 32.1 23.9 30.1 15.7 12.3
P/BV 18.3 12.8 9.1 7.4 5.4 4.1
Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.5
EV/Sales 24.2 17.3 12.7 15.0 8.1 5.9
EV/EBITDA 31.4 22.8 16.5 21.1 10.0 7.3
EV/Total assets 17.4 11.9 8.2 6.5 4.6 3.2
Per share data (Rs)
EPS (Basic) 5.9 8.2 11.0 8.7 16.8 21.3
EPS (fully diluted) 5.9 8.2 11.0 8.7 16.8 21.3
Cash EPS 6.1 8.4 11.2 8.9 17.1 21.8
DPS 3.5 4.9 2.2 2.0 3.0 4.0
Book value 14.6 20.9 29.4 36.0 49.3 65.9
DuPont analysis
EBIT margin 75.1 74.9 76.2 69.7 80.8 79.2
Tax retention ratio (%) 66.3 65.7 65.8 66.2 67.0 67.0
Asset turnover (x) 4.4 5.5 5.0 3.6 5.0 4.2
RoIC (Post-tax) 219.2 270.9 248.4 166.4 268.7 220.3
Cost of debt (post tax)
Leverage (x)
Operating RoE 219.2 270.9 248.4 166.4 268.7 220.3
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax) 63.8 60.6 57.7 33.4 52.2 49.2
Angel RoIC (pre-tax) 374.8 436.9 349.6 504.5 389.1 342.3
RoE 47.3 46.1 43.9 26.6 39.3 37.1
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset turnover (gross
3.3 4.2 4.9 3.6 4.8 4.4
block)
Inventory (days) 48 44 64 60 60 60
Receivables (days) 25 31 50 25 30 30
Payables (days) 49 61 81 104 90 90
WC cycle (days) 26 23 33 34 16 22
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity (0.8) (0.9) (0.8) (0.9) (0.9) (0.9)
Net debt to EBITDA (1.5) (1.7) (1.7) (2.9) (1.9) (1.9)
Interest coverage - - - - - -
August 03, 2010 12

13. NMDC | 1QFY2011 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
DISCLAIMER
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refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
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Disclosure of Interest Statement NMDC
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
August 03, 2010 13