Bajaj Auto reported strong results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 that exceeded estimates. Net sales grew 80.5% year-over-year to Rs3,399 crore, driven by an 83.8% increase in volume. Operating profit margin expanded substantially to 22.9% compared to 15.2% in the prior year quarter. Net profit for the quarter was Rs529 crore, up 306% year-over-year and above estimates. For fiscal year 2011, management expects robust volume growth and maintains guidance of 20% operating profit margin despite rising raw material costs.
1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I Automobile
May 14, 2010
Bajaj Auto ACCUMULATE
CMP Rs2,186
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs2,361
For 4QFY2010, Bajaj Auto (BAL) clocked Net Sales of Rs3,399cr (Rs1,883cr), Investment Period 15 Months
up 80.5% yoy, which were marginally above our expectation of Rs3,329cr. The
top-line growth was entirely on the back of volume growth, which stood at Stock Info
83.8% yoy, while realisations growth was almost flat at 0.2% yoy, primarily due
Sector Automobile
to a higher contribution of low-end bikes (Discover) in the Sales mix. The
Discover 100 and the Pulsar were the primary game-changer brands, as the Market Cap (Rs cr) 31,620
company continues to launch new products under the two-brand umbrella.
Beta 0.7
BAL’s Bottom-line for the quarter stood at Rs529cr (Rs130cr), and came in
above our estimate of Rs425cr. We recommend an Accumulate on the stock. 52 WK High / Low 2,220/727
OPM at 22.9%; management maintains guidance of 20% OPM for FY2011E: Avg. Daily Volume 52302
During 4QFY2010, BAL witnessed a substantial 768bp yoy jump in its EBITDA Face Value (Rs) 10
Margin to 22.9% (15.2%). On a qoq basis too, the Margin was up by 90bp,
despite an increase in core raw material prices, on the back of better operating BSE Sensex 16,995
leverage. Raw Material costs increased by 49bp and accounted for almost Nifty 5,094
69.3% of Sales, while Other expenditure and Staff cost showed a significant
drop of 568bp yoy and 249bp yoy, respectively. Overall, the Operating Profit Reuters Code BAJA.BO
increased by 171.9% yoy to Rs777cr (Rs286cr), which came in better than our
Bloomberg Code BJAUT@IN
estimate of Rs665cr. The Net Profit, before Extraordinary items, stood at
Rs529cr (Rs130cr) and exceeded our expectation of Rs425cr, largely owing to Shareholding Pattern (%)
better margins and a lower tax rate.
Promoters 49.6
Outlook and Valuation: We have revised our Earnings estimate upwards for MF/Banks/Indian FLs 15.1
FY2011E to Rs137.9 (Rs120.3 earlier), and for FY2012E to Rs147.6 (Rs135.2
earlier), owing to the better-than-expected Operating performance in FII/NRIs/OCBs 18.3
4QFY2010 and lower tax provisioning, while we have modeled around a 13% Indian Public 17.0
CAGR in Volumes over FY2010-12E. We expect the Margins to decline due to
an uptick in raw material prices in FY2011E. However, the company’s cost- Abs. 3m 1yr 3yr
cutting measures and improved operating leverage would restrict a substantial
Sensex (%) 5.2 43.1 21.7
fall in the OPM. The company is poised to win back some of its lost market
share over the next couple of years, with multiple new launches in the
BAL (%) 22.2 175.6 NA#
Motorcycle and Three-wheeler Segments. At the CMP, the stock is trading at
15.9x its FY2011E and 14.8x its FY2012E EPS. We recommend an Accumulate Note: # Listed on May 26, 2008
on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs2,361, at which the stock would trade at
16x its FY2012E Earnings.
Key Financials
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 8,813 11,921 14,213 15,535
% chg (2.3) 35.3 19.2 9.3
Adj. Net Profit 769 1,865 1,995 2,135
% chg (4.9) 142.4 7.0 7.1
OPM (%) 11.6 22.5 19.5 19.0
EPS (Rs) 53.2 128.9 137.9 147.6
P/E (x) 41.1 17.0 15.9 14.8
P/BV (x) 16.9 10.3 7.4 5.7
RoE (%) 44.5 75.7 54.3 43.6
RoCE (%) 26.7 60.8 48.5 41.7
Vaishali Jajoo
EV/Sales (x) 3.5 2.4 1.9 1.6 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 344
EV/EBITDA (x) 31.8 11.2 10.4 9.3 E-mail: vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
2. Bajaj Auto I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Exhibit 1: Financial Performance Update
Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY10 4QFY09 % chg FY10 FY09 % chg
Net Sales (include Other Op. Inc.) 3,399.5 1,883.4 80.5 11,920.9 8,813.0 35.3
Consumption of RM 2,236.7 1,241.7 80.1 7,650.6 6,089.1 25.6
(% of Sales) 65.8 65.9 64.2 69.1
Staff Costs 86.2 94.6 (8.9) 399.5 354.4 12.7
(% of Sales) 2.5 5.0 3.4 4.0
Purchases of TG 117.7 53.5 120.2 419.8 374.4 12.1
(% of Sales) 3.5 2.8 3.5 4.2
Other Expenses 181.8 207.8 (12.5) 858.5 792.9 8.3
(% of Sales) 5.3 11.0 7.2 9.0
Total Expenditure 2,622.4 1,597.6 64.1 9,328.4 7,610.7 22.6
Operating Profit 777.1 285.8 171.9 2,592.5 1,202.3 115.6
OPM 22.9 15.2 21.7 13.6
Interest (0.0) 5.2 (100.2) 6.0 21.0 (71.5)
Depreciation 34.1 31.3 9.0 136.5 129.8 5.1
Other Income 42.5 22.9 85.5 122.5 111.7 9.7
PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 785.5 272.3 188.5 2,572.6 1,163.2 121.2
Extr. Income/(Expense) 49.4 82.9 - 165.0 207.1 -
PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 736.2 189.3 288.8 2,407.6 956.1 151.8
(% of Sales) 21.7 10.1 20.2 10.8
Provision for Taxation 207.5 59.1 251.0 707.5 301.6 134.6
(% of PBT) 28.2 31.2 29.4 31.5
Reported PAT 528.7 130.2 306.0 1,700.1 654.5 159.8
PATM 15.6 6.9 14.3 7.4
Equity capital (cr) 144.7 144.7 101.2 101.2
EPS (Rs) 36.5 9.0 306.0 117.5 45.2 159.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
Strong volume growth boosts top-line; Profit beats estimates: For 4QFY2010, Bajaj
Auto (BAL) clocked Net Sales of Rs3,399cr (Rs1,883cr), up 80.5% yoy, which was
marginally above our expectation of Rs3,329cr. The top-line growth was entirely on
the back of volume growth, which stood at 83.8% yoy, while the realisations growth
was almost flat at 0.2% yoy, primarily due to a higher contribution of low-end bikes
(Discover) in the Sales mix. The Discover 100 and the Pulsar were the primary game-
changer brands, as the company continues to launch new products under the two-
brand umbrella. BAL’s Bottom-line for the quarter stood at Rs529cr (Rs130cr), and
came in above our estimate of Rs425cr. Overall, a strong volume growth, a yoy
decline in staff costs and effective operating cost management, have resulted in a
substantial jump in the OPMs and the performance during the quarter.
OPM at 22.9%; management maintains guidance of 20% OPM for FY2011E:
During 4QFY2010, BAL witnessed a substantial 768bp yoy jump in its EBITDA
Margin to 22.9% (15.2%). On a qoq basis too, the Margin was up by 90bp, despite
an increase in core raw material prices, on the back of better operating leverage.
Raw Material costs increased by 49bp and accounted for almost 69.3% of Sales,
while Other expenditure and Staff cost showed a significant drop of 568bp yoy and
249bp yoy, respectively. Overall, the Operating Profit increased by 171.9% yoy to
Rs777cr (Rs286cr), which came in better than our estimate of Rs665cr. The
proposed increase in production at the Pantnagar plant, a focus on cost reductions
and minimal sales promotion expenses contributed to BAL achieving better Margins.
Net Profit up 306% yoy: The Net Profit, before Extraordinary items, stood at Rs529cr
(Rs130cr) and exceeded our expectation of Rs425cr. BAL announced VRS for 2,331
workmen at its Akurdi plant, and decided to recognise expenditure amounting to
Rs337cr over an appropriate period; for 4QFY2010, the company recognised
Rs45.8cr. After deducting the Exceptional items amounting to Rs49.4cr (Rs82.9.cr),
the Bottom-line grew by 306% yoy to Rs529cr (Rs130cr). The tax rate has declined
by 304bp yoy, due to higher production at Uttarakhand.
May 14, 2010 2
3. Bajaj Auto I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Conference Call – Key Highlights
Volume guidance: The Management has guided for robust growth in total volumes
during FY2011E, with expected sales of around 3.6-4mn units in FY2011E (2.85mn
units in FY2010). This growth will primarily be on the back of robust volumes
clocked by the three brands across segments: Discover, Pulsar (Two-Wheelers) and
RE (Three-Wheelers). The two-wheeler segment is expected to grow by around 40%
yoy in the Motorcycle segment in FY2011E, with the Three-Wheeler segment
following at a yoy growth of around 18% yoy. This growth is expected to continue
due to a slew of new launches under its primary brands in the next couple of
quarters. Moreover, the company is also optimistic about export volumes, and is
poised to achieve its target of 1.1mn vehicles for FY2011E. Additionally, it has
guided for robust sales expected at a CAGR of 18%-20% over the next 2-3 years in
the key markets of Africa, South-East Asia, Latin America and Sri-Lanka, with forays
expected in other emerging markets.
The BAL management believes that the elevated growth rates for the two wheeler
industry in FY2010 at 24% were partially aided by the pent up demand of the
previous years, and that growth rates will moderate in FY2011E to the trend levels of
12-14%.
Exhibit 2: Motorcycle Segment volumes
Units %
Market Share (RHS) Volume (LHS)
800,000 100
700,000 80
600,000 60
500,000 40
400,000 20
300,000 0
200,000 (20)
100,000 (40)
0 (60)
1QFY2007
2QFY2007
3QFY2007
4QFY2007
1QFY2008
2QFY2008
3QFY2008
4QFY2008
1QFY2009
2QFY2009
3QFY2009
4QFY2009
1QFY2010
2QFY2010
3QFY2010
4QFY2010
Source: SIAM, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Three-Wheeler Segment volumes
Units Market Share (RHS) Volume (LHS) %
100,000 80
90,000 60
80,000 40
70,000 20
60,000 0
50,000 (20)
40,000 (40)
30,000 (60)
1QFY2007
2QFY2007
3QFY2007
4QFY2007
1QFY2008
2QFY2008
3QFY2008
4QFY2008
1QFY2009
2QFY2009
3QFY2009
4QFY2009
1QFY2010
2QFY2010
3QFY2010
4QFY2010
Source: SIAM, Angel Research
May 14, 2010 3
4. Bajaj Auto I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Target to achieve 34% market share in FY2011E: BAL maintained its market
leadership in the 125cc-plus category, with a market share of around 46.7%. Its
market share in the domestic Motorcycle Segment declined to around 21.9% in
FY2009, which has improved to 24.3% in FY2010. The management believes that
the full effect of new launches in 4QFY2010 helped the company to regain its
market share. It expects to further increase its market share in the motorcycle
segment to 34-35% in FY2011E.
Operating Margins expected to be at around 20%: The company recorded robust
margins in 4QFY2010 at 22.9%, higher on a qoq basis. The company had given a
guidance of maintaining a healthy Margin level, at around 20% in FY2011, despite
relatively higher Raw material costs, primarily on the back of cost-cutting efforts
adopted at the operating level and better realisations in Exports, all of which it has
realised in FY2010. Going ahead, the management has guided to maintain its
margin above the 20% level for the next couple of quarters, despite an uptrend seen
in input cost prices in the recent months. Also, the management is sanguine about
maintaining the 18-20% margin range for FY2011E, on the back of better operating
leverage on higher volumes, which is expected to offset the hike in raw material
costs, to a certain extent. Further, a higher volume off-take from the Pantnagar plant
(60,000 per month currently) will have a positive effect on the NPM. The
management expects the production at the Pantnagar plant to increase to 70,000
per month in the June 2010 quarter, and to 1,20,000 per month in the later part of
FY2011E.
Capacity Expansion: Bajaj Auto has guided for capex of Rs250cr in FY2011E. It is
scaling up production at its Uttarakhand plant to 1.2m units (from 0.6m units in
FY2010). The company will incrementally produce the Discover range and the Pulsar
135cc bikes from there. The management also pointed that the capex over FY2012E
would be determined by the roll out plans for the small car.
Currency hedges: The company has hedged its entire FY2011E export exposure at
Rs46.5/US$.
May 14, 2010 4
5. Bajaj Auto I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Outlook and Valuation
Overall, Two-wheeler sales improved in FY2010, owing to the various measures
adopted by the government and positive developments on the macro-economic
front. We believe that although the substantial ownership base of Two-wheelers
results in reduced headroom for higher double-digit growth rates, the increased
dependence on replacement demand is expected to sustain volumes. Moreover, the
rural markets are expected to register better growth on account of the new demand
arising from the relevant rural population, which is expected to help Two-wheeler
companies in maintaining their growth momentum, registering an 8-9% CAGR in
Volumes over the next few years.
In the case of BAL, we have revised our Earnings estimate upwards for FY2011E to
Rs137.9 (Rs120.3 earlier), and for FY2012E to Rs147.6 (Rs135.2 earlier), owing to
its better-than-expected Operating performance in 4QFY2010 and lower tax
provisioning, while we have modeled around a 13% CAGR in Volumes over
FY2010-12E. We expect the Margins to decline on an uptick in raw material prices
in FY2011E. However, the company’s cost-cutting measures and improved
operating leverage would restrict a substantial fall in the OPM.
The company is poised to win back some of its lost market share over the next
couple of years, with multiple new launches in the Motorcycle and Three-wheeler
Segments. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 15.9x its FY2011E and 14.8x its
FY2012E EPS. We recommend an Accumulate on the stock, with a Target Price of
Rs2,361, at which the stock would trade at 16x its FY2012E Earnings.
Exhibit 4: One year forward P/E
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
-
Aug-02
Aug-03
Aug-04
Aug-05
Aug-06
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Absolute P/E 3 year Average P/E
Source: C-line, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: BAL - Premium/Discount to Sensex P/E
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
-100%
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Aug-02
Aug-03
Aug-04
Aug-05
Aug-06
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Absolute Premium 3 year Average Premium
Source: C-line, Angel Research
May 14, 2010 5
9. Bajaj Auto I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Bajaj Auto
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
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May 14, 2010 9