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3QFY2010 Result Update I Retail

                                                                                                                      April 26, 2010



  Pantaloon Retail                                                                      ACCUMULATE
                                                                                        CMP                                     Rs423
  Performance Highlights                                                                Target Price                            Rs469

 For 3QFY2010, Pantaloon Retail (PRIL), on a standalone basis, reported a               Investment Period                    15Months
 25.3% yoy growth in net sales to Rs2,057.6cr. The growth was below our
 expectation of 30.2% during the quarter. The growth in the top-line was                Stock Info
 facilitated mainly due to Same Store Sales (SSS) growth yoy in Value and               Sector                                 Retail
 Lifestyle Retailing, of 13.9% and 13.2%, respectively. The EBITDA margin
 remained more or less unchanged at 10.5% yoy. On the net profit front, PRIL            Market Cap (Rs cr)                     8,719
 reported a growth of 62.7% to Rs55.9cr, led by a decent top-line performance
                                                                                        Beta                                     1.0
 and unchanged interest cost (on a yoy basis). Going ahead, we expect the
 company to continue witnessing good growth, on the back of retail space                52 WK High / Low                    455 / 176
 expansion, a revival in consumer sentiment, back-end efficiencies and
                                                                                        Avg. Daily Volume                    302,112
 organisational restructuring. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the
 stock.                                                                                 Face Value (Rs)                            2

                                                                                        BSE Sensex                            17,745
 Retail space expansion on track: In 3QFY2010, PRIL added ~0.5mn sq ft
 of retail space, thereby taking the total addition during 9MFY2010 to ~1.3mn           Nifty                                  5,322
 sq ft. We believe that the retail space expansion is on track, considering the
 company’s plan to add ~2mn sq ft every year. The retail space expansion is             Reuters Code                        PART.BO
 skewed towards the value retailing format, accounting for around ~ 65% of              Bloomberg Code                        PF@IN
 the retail space addition during 3QFY2010. We believe that the improved
 consumer sentiment, coupled with retail space addition, would bode well for            Shareholding Pattern (%)
 PRIL, going ahead.
                                                                                        Promoters                                44.7

 Outlook and Valuation: PRIL's presence across price points and categories              MF/Banks/Indian FIs                      22.9
 helps the company to be in a better position than its peers. Apart from
                                                                                        FII/NRIs/OCBs                            25.9
 positives like on-track retail space expansion and a revival in consumer
 sentiment, we believe that the company's restructuring initiative would enable it      Indian Public                              6.5
 to enhance its focus on different segments and would also provide it with a
 good opportunity of value unlocking. At Rs423, the stock is trading at 20.8x its       Abs. (%)            3m        1yr          3yr
 FY2012E Earnings and at 2.4x its FY2012E P/BV. Our SOTP Target for PRIL is             Sensex              5.7       56.6        24.7
 Rs469, wherein we have valued its stake in FCH, HSRIL and Future Generali at
 Rs31, Rs12 and Rs18, respectively. Considering our fair value of Rs469 for the         PRIL              62.5     110.1          10.6
 stock, we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock.


 Key Financials (Standalone)
 Y/E June (Rs cr)                  FY2009         FY2010E         FY2011E   FY2012E
 Net Sales                           6,342           8,254         10,704    13,137
 % chg                                25.6             30.2          29.7      22.7
 Net Profit                          143.8           221.9          320.6     419.6
 % chg                                14.2             54.3          44.5      30.9
 EBITDA Margin (%)                    10.5             10.3          10.1      10.1
 EPS (Rs)                               7.6            10.8          15.6      20.4
 P/E (x)                              55.9             39.3          27.2      20.8
 P/BV (x)                               3.5             3.0           2.7       2.4
 RoE (%)                                7.0             8.6          10.4      12.2
 RoCE (%)                             11.3             11.8          13.2      14.7
                                                                                      Viraj Nadkarni
 EV / Sales (x)                         1.8             1.5           1.2       0.9
                                                                                      Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 309
 EV/EBITDA                            17.4             14.1          11.5       9.6
                                                                                      E-mail: virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research



                                                                                                                                         1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                         Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update



                 Exhibit 1: 3QFY2010 Performance
                  Y/E June (Rs cr)           3QFY2010      3QFY2009   % chg   9MFY2010    9MFY2009     % chg
                  Net Sales                        2,058      1,642    25.3       5,748        4,679    22.8
                  Consumption of RM                1,459      1,150    26.9       4,033        3,278    23.0
                  (% of sales)                     70.90      70.03                70.2         70.1
                  Staff Costs                       84.2       69.5    21.2     238.66       204.23     16.9
                  (% to sales)                      4.09       4.23                 4.2          4.4
                  Other expenses                   299.0      249.6    19.8     866.37       711.43     21.8
                  (% to sales)                     14.53      15.20                15.1         15.2
                  Total Expenditure                1,842      1,469    25.4       5,138        4,194    22.5
                  Operating Profit                 215.6      173.0    24.6         609          485    25.5
                  OPM                              10.48      10.54                10.6         10.4
                  Interest                          85.9       84.7     1.3     256.24       227.27     12.7
                  Depreciation                      46.5       36.9   26.0      134.91       101.23     33.3
                  Other Income                       1.4        1.6   (9.4)       8.18         4.27     91.6
                  PBT (excl. Extr. Items)           84.7       53.0   59.8       226.2        161.0     40.5
                  Extr. Income/(Expense)               -          -                  -            -
                  PBT (incl. Extr. Items)           84.7       53.0    59.8      226.2        161.0     40.5
                  (% of Sales)                       4.1        3.2                 3.9          3.4
                  Provision for Taxation           28.80      18.64    54.5       75.78        56.88    33.2
                  (% of PBT)                        34.0       35.2                33.5         35.3
                  Reported PAT                     55.92      34.37    62.7     150.41       104.09     44.5
                  PATM                              2.72       2.09                 2.6          2.2
                  Equity shares (cr)                20.6       17.5                20.6         17.5
                  EPS (Rs)                          2.71       1.96    38.3        7.30         5.94    22.8
                  Net Sales                        2,058      1,642    25.3       5,748        4,679    22.8
                  Consumption of RM                1,459      1,150    26.9       4,033        3,278    23.0
                 Source: Company, Angel Research


                  Key Highlights

                  Net Sales surge by 25.3%: Pantaloon Retail (PRIL), on a standalone basis, reported a
                  25.3% yoy growth in net sales to Rs2, 057.6cr. Higher SSS growth of 13.9% and 13.2%,
                  for value and lifestyle retailing, respectively, during 3QFY2010 (7% and 11%,
                  respectively, during 2QFY2010) enabled the company to post decent top-line growth.
                  Moreover, the Home Retailing format registered a stellar growth of 18.6%yoy (1% growth
                  in 2QFY2010). PRIL posted a total sales growth of 31%, 38.4% and 22.4% yoy,
                  respectively, for value retailing, lifestyle retailing and home retailing during the quarter.
                  Growth in the lifestyle retailing and Home retailing formats are encouraging signs, as
                  they clearly indicate that consumers are opening their wallets for discretionary spending.
                  We believe that a continuation of this trend would bode well for PRIL, thereby enabling it
                  to maintain its top-line growth, going ahead.




April 26, 2010                                                                                                 2
Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update


                 Exhibit 2: Net Sales Growth Trend
                             2,400
                             2,100                                                                                                                                                                                                                   12
                             1,800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     9
                             1,500
                             1,200




                  (Rs cr)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     6




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (%)
                                  900
                                  600                                                                                                                                                                                                                3
                                  300
                                    0                                                                                                                                                                                                                0




                                                   2QFY2008


                                                                         3QFY2008


                                                                                               4QFY2008


                                                                                                                     1QFY2009


                                                                                                                                            2QFY2009


                                                                                                                                                                  3QFY2009


                                                                                                                                                                                      4QFY2009


                                                                                                                                                                                                       1QFY2010


                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2QFY2010


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      3QFY2010
                                                                                                                           Net Sales                                         Growth (%)

                 Source: Company, Angel Research

                 Operating Margins remain flat: During the quarter, PRIL’s Operating profit
                 witnessed a 24.6% yoy growth to Rs215.6cr. The EBITDA margin stayed flat at
                 10.5% (on a yoy basis), which was slightly lower than our expectation. In percentage
                 to sales terms, the increase in the raw material cost of ~90bp was offset by a
                 decline in the staff costs and other overheads, thereby enabling the company to
                 maintain its margins.

                 Exhibit 3: EBITDA and Operating Margins
                            240

                            200                                                                                                                                               11.0                                                               12
                                                                                    10.2                  10.2                   10.3                  10.5                                      10.7             10.6            10.5
                            160         8.9
                                                              8.4
                  (Rs cr)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 8
                            120




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (%)
                            80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 4
                            40

                             0                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0
                                        2QFY2008



                                                              3QFY2008



                                                                                    4QFY2008



                                                                                                          1QFY2009



                                                                                                                                 2QFY2009



                                                                                                                                                       3QFY2009



                                                                                                                                                                               4QFY2009



                                                                                                                                                                                                 1QFY2010



                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2QFY2010



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  3QFY2010

                                                                                                                 EBITDA                                EBITDA Margin


                 Source: Company, Angel Research

                 Bottom-line surges by 62.7%: PRIL’s bottom-line surged by 62.7% yoy to Rs55.9cr
                 (Rs34.4cr) during 3QFY2010. The interest cost has remained flat, with a marginal
                 1.3% rise on a yoy basis, mainly enabling the growth posted at the operating level to
                 trickle down further to the bottom-line. The Net Profit margin surged up by 60bp yoy
                 to 2.7% in 3QFY2010.




April 26, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 3
Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update


                 Exhibit 4: Net Profit Trend and Net Profit Margins
                                60                                                                                                                                                                                                              4

                                50
                                            2.6                                                                                                                                                             2.6             2.7                 3
                                                                 2.4                  2.4              2.4                                                                             2.5
                                40                                                                                           2.2                                  2.2
                                                                                                                                                  2.1




                  (Rs cr)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (%)
                                30                                                                                                                                                                                                              2

                                20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1
                                10

                                 0                                                                                                                                                                                                              0




                                             2QFY2008



                                                                  3QFY2008



                                                                                      4QFY2008



                                                                                                        1QFY2009



                                                                                                                              2QFY2009



                                                                                                                                                  3QFY2009



                                                                                                                                                                   4QFY2009



                                                                                                                                                                                        1QFY2010



                                                                                                                                                                                                            2QFY2010



                                                                                                                                                                                                                            3QFY2010
                                                                                      Adjusted Profit After Extra-ordinary item                                                          Net Margin


                 Source: Company, Angel Research

                 Restructuring on track: PRIL is in the process of restructuring its entire business into
                 retail and non-retail ventures. It is dividing its businesses into three parts, namely,
                 retail, financial services and other support businesses. PRIL has transferred the value
                 business to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Future Value Retail Limited (FVRL). PRIL has
                 reported results for 3QFY2010 excluding FVRL (the erstwhile value retail segment of
                 PRIL, now a wholly-owned subsidiary). However, the company has also provided
                 results including the performance of FVRL for comparative purposes.

                 Outlook and Valuation

                 PRIL's presence across price points and categories helps the company to be in a
                 better position than its peers. Apart from positives like on-track retail space
                 expansion and a revival in consumer sentiment, we believe that the company's
                 restructuring initiative would enable it to enhance its focus on different segments and
                 would also provide it with a good opportunity of value unlocking. We estimate the
                 company to clock around a 27.5% and 42.4% CAGR in its revenues and bottom-
                 line, respectively, over FY2009-12E. At Rs423, the stock is trading at 20.8x its
                 FY2012E Earnings and at 2.4x FY2012E P/BV. Our SOTP Target for PRIL is Rs469
                 on FY2012E valuations, wherein we have valued its stake in FCH, HSRIL and Future
                 Generali at Rs31, Rs12 and Rs18, respectively. PRIL continues to be our Top Pick in
                 the Retail Sector. Considering its fair value of Rs469, we recommend an Accumulate
                 rating on the stock.

                 Exhibit 5: 1 year forward PE band
                       900
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          50x
                       800
                       700
                       600                                                                                                                                                                                                                               35x
                       500
                       400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                22x
                       300
                       200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          10x
                       100
                            0
                                         Aug-04




                                                                             Aug-05




                                                                                                                   Aug-06




                                                                                                                                                     Aug-07




                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug-09
                                                        Dec-04




                                                                                          Dec-05




                                                                                                                             Dec-06




                                                                                                                                                              Dec-07




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Dec-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dec-09
                                Apr-04




                                                                 Apr-05




                                                                                                   Apr-06




                                                                                                                                         Apr-07




                                                                                                                                                                              Apr-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                              Apr-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Apr-10




                 Source: Company, Angel Research




April 26, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 4
Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update


                 Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone)                                          Rs crore
                 Y/E June                      FY2007   FY2008   FY2009    FY2010E   FY2011E   FY2012E
                 Net Sales                      3,237    5,049    6,342      8,254    10,704    13,137
                 Other operating income             -        -         -         -         -           -
                 Total operating income         3,237    5,049    6,342      8,254    10,704    13,137
                 % chg                           73.2     56.0     25.6       30.2      29.7       22.7
                 Total Expenditure              3,021    4,588    5,673      7,404     9,623    11,810
                 Net Raw Materials              2,209    3,512    4,430      5,762     7,472      9,170
                 Other Mfg costs                  606     802      969       1,271     1,670      2,049
                 Personnel                      206.1    274.1    274.3      371.4     481.7      591.2
                 Other                              -        -         -         -         -           -
                 EBITDA                         215.5    460.5    668.4      850.2   1,081.1    1,326.8
                 % chg                           47.0    113.7     45.2       27.2      27.2       22.7
                 (% of Net Sales)                 6.7      9.1     10.5       10.3      10.1       10.1
                 Depreciation& Amortisation      36.9     83.4    140.1      167.5     198.0      232.0
                 EBIT                           178.7    377.1    528.4      682.7     883.1    1,094.8
                 % chg                           56.5    111.1     40.1       29.2      29.4       24.0
                 (% of Net Sales)                 5.5      7.5      8.3        8.3       8.3        8.3
                 Interest & other Charges        89.8    185.3    318.2      343.8     397.1      452.0
                 Other Income                    31.9      3.8      9.1        5.8       9.8        7.8
                 (% of PBT)                      26.4      1.9      4.1        1.7       2.0        1.2
                 Recurring PBT                  120.8    195.6    219.2      344.7     495.8      650.7
                 % chg                           50.6     61.9     12.1       57.3      43.8       31.2
                 Extraordinary Income/(Exp.)    60.10        -         -
                 PBT (reported)                 180.9    195.6    219.2      344.7     495.8      650.7
                 Tax                             61.0     69.7     75.4      122.8     175.2      231.1
                 (% of PBT)                      33.7     35.6     34.4       35.6      35.3       35.5
                 PAT (reported)                 120.0    125.9    143.8      221.9     320.6      419.6
                 ADJ. PAT                        59.9    125.9    143.8      221.9     320.6      419.6
                 % chg                           15.7    110.3     14.2       54.3      44.5       30.9
                 (% of Net Sales)                 1.8      2.5      2.3        2.7       3.0        3.2
                 Basic EPS (Rs)                   4.1      7.9      7.6       10.8      15.6       20.4
                 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)           4.1      7.9      7.6       10.8      15.6       20.4
                 % chg                          190.5     93.8     (4.4)      42.5      44.5       30.9




April 26, 2010                                                                                       5
Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update


                 Balance Sheet (Standalone)                                                                     Rs crore
                 Y/E June                           FY2007      FY2008      FY2009      FY2010E FY2011E         FY2012E
                 SOURCES OF FUNDS
                 Equity Share Capital                 29.4        31.9        38.1         41.2     41.2           41.2
                 Preference Capital                      -            -          -            -         -              -
                 Reserves& Surplus                   1,063       1,815       2,234        2,852    3,222          3,558
                 Shareholders Funds                  1,092       1,847       2,272        2,893    3,263          3,599
                 Total Loans                         1,300       2,192       2,850        3,327    3,753          4,139
                 Deferred Tax Liability               55.8        67.8       116.1         67.8     67.8           67.8
                 Total Liabilities                   2,448       4,106       5,239        6,289    7,084          7,805
                 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                 Gross Block                          767        1,369       1,876        2,204    2,606          3,006
                 Less: Acc. Depreciation              92.5       175.9       307.7        480.5    678.5          910.5
                 Net Block                            675        1,193       1,569        1,723    1,928          2,095
                 Capital Work-in-Progress            131.1       330.6       345.2        219.3    221.2          219.6
                 Goodwill                                -            -          -            -         -              -
                 Investments                          252          587        954         1,000    1,000          1,000
                 Current Assets                      1,749       2,635       3,283        4,277    5,126          5,939
                    Cash                              164          127        109          190       181            211
                    Loans & Advances                  634          962       1,208        1,692    2,248          2,693
                    Other                             952        1,545       1,965        2,395    2,697          3,035
                 Current liabilities                  360          639        912          931     1,191          1,448
                 Net Current Assets                  1,390       1,996       2,371        3,346    3,935          4,490
                 Total Assets                        2,448       4,106       5,239        6,289    7,084          7,805


                 Cash Flow Statement                                                                            Rs crore
                 Y/E June                             FY2007     FY2008      FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
                 Profit before tax                     180.9       195.6       219.2      344.7     495.8         650.7
                 Depreciation                           36.9        83.4       140.1      167.5     198.0         232.0
                 Change in Working Capital            (427.4)     (593.3)     (419.9)    (429.9)   (302.0)       338.0)
                 Less: Other income                     31.9         3.8         9.1        5.8       9.8           7.8
                 Direct taxes paid                      61.0        69.7        75.4      122.8     175.2         231.1
                 Cash Flow from Operations            (302.5)     (387.8)     (145.1)     (46.3)    206.8         305.8
                 (Inc)./ Dec in Fixed Assets          (582.4)     (980.0) (1,051.7)      (719.0)   (843.0)       (608.4)
                 (Inc)./ Dec in Investments            (90.3)     (334.5)     (367.5)     (46.0)            -          -
                 (Inc)/ Dec in loans and advances     (336.3)     (328.5)     (246.0)    (483.9)   (555.7)       (445.2)
                 Other income                           31.9         3.8         9.1        5.8       9.8           7.8
                 Cash Flow from Investing               (977)     (1,639)     (1,656)    (1,243)   (1,389)       (1,046)
                 Issue of Equity                         2.5         2.5         6.2        3.2             -          -
                 Inc./(Dec.) in loans                  698.2       892.2       658.6      477.0     425.3         385.9
                 Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)              (7.5)       (9.6)      (11.4)     (12.4)    (12.4)        (12.4)
                 Others                                727.7     1,105.5     1,129.7      901.8     760.7         396.0
                 Cash Flow from Financing              1,421       1,991       1,783      1,370     1,174           770
                 Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                   141.3       (36.3)      (18.1)      80.3      (8.5)         29.6
                 Opening Cash balances                  22.5       163.8       127.4      109.3     189.6         181.2
                 Closing Cash balances                 163.8       127.4       109.3      189.6     181.2         210.7




April 26, 2010                                                                                                         6
Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update


                 Key Ratios (Standalone)
                 Y/E June                               FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
                  Valuation Ratio (x)
                  P/E (on FDEPS)                         104.1    53.7    56.2    39.4    27.3    20.9
                  P/CEPS                                  64.4    32.3    28.5    22.5    16.9    13.4
                  P/BV                                     5.7     3.7     3.6     3.0     2.7     2.4
                  Dividend yield (%)                       0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1
                  EV/Sales                                 3.1     2.1     1.8     1.5     1.2     0.9
                  EV/EBITDA                               46.4    23.7    17.4    14.1    11.5     9.6
                  EV / Total Assets                        4.1     2.7     2.2     1.9     1.8     1.6
                  Per Share Data (Rs)
                  EPS (Basic)                              4.1     7.9     7.6    10.8    15.6    20.4
                  EPS (fully diluted)                      4.1     7.9     7.6    10.8    15.6    20.4
                  Cash EPS                                 6.6    13.1    14.9    18.9    25.2    31.6
                  DPS                                      0.5     0.6     0.6     0.6     0.6     0.6
                  Book Value                              74.4   115.9   119.4   140.4   158.3   174.6
                  Dupont Analysis
                  EBIT margin                              5.5     7.5     8.3     8.3     8.3     8.3
                  Tax retention ratio                     66.3    64.4    65.6    64.4    64.7    64.5
                  Asset turnover (x)                       1.3     1.2     1.2     1.3     1.5     1.7
                  RoIC (Post-tax)                          4.8     5.9     6.6     7.0     8.1     9.0
                  Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                  6.3     6.8     8.3     7.2     7.3     7.4
                  Leverage (x)                             1.1     1.1     1.2     1.1     1.1     1.1
                  Operating RoE                            3.3     4.9     4.7     6.8     8.9    10.9
                  Returns (%)
                  RoCE (Pre-tax)                           9.9    11.5    11.3    11.8    13.2    14.7
                  Angel RoIC (Pre-tax)                     8.3    10.3    11.0    11.6    13.2    14.8
                  RoE                                      7.4     8.6     7.0     8.6    10.4    12.2
                  Turnover ratios (x)
                  Asset Turnover (Gross Block)             5.7     4.7     3.9     4.0     4.5     4.7
                  Inventory / Sales (days)                78.5    83.7    96.0    91.0    80.5    74.5
                  Receivables (days)                       4.6     6.4     7.4     7.3     6.3     5.1
                  Payables (days)                         36.5    39.7    49.9    45.4    40.2    40.8
                  WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)              101.6   111.9   118.9   119.8   117.8   111.6
                  Solvency ratios (x)
                  Net debt to equity                       1.0     1.1     1.2     1.1     1.1     1.1
                  Net debt to EBITDA                       5.3     4.5     4.1     3.7     3.3     3.0
                  Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)      2.0     2.0     1.7     2.0     2.2     2.4




April 26, 2010                                                                                       7
Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update



Research Team Tel: 4040 3800                                       E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                       Website: www.angeltrade.com




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The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true,
and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we
cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel
Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other
reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly.

Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services
in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the
use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                       Pantaloon Retail
 1.    Analyst ownership of the stock                                                           No
 2.    Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                                     Yes
 3.    Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock                          No
 4.    Broking relationship with company covered                                                No
 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.




                                Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                                    Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800



    Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
    INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
    Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
    CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302




April 26, 2010                                                                                                                                                                              8

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Pantaloon Retail Result Update

  • 1. 3QFY2010 Result Update I Retail April 26, 2010 Pantaloon Retail ACCUMULATE CMP Rs423 Performance Highlights Target Price Rs469 For 3QFY2010, Pantaloon Retail (PRIL), on a standalone basis, reported a Investment Period 15Months 25.3% yoy growth in net sales to Rs2,057.6cr. The growth was below our expectation of 30.2% during the quarter. The growth in the top-line was Stock Info facilitated mainly due to Same Store Sales (SSS) growth yoy in Value and Sector Retail Lifestyle Retailing, of 13.9% and 13.2%, respectively. The EBITDA margin remained more or less unchanged at 10.5% yoy. On the net profit front, PRIL Market Cap (Rs cr) 8,719 reported a growth of 62.7% to Rs55.9cr, led by a decent top-line performance Beta 1.0 and unchanged interest cost (on a yoy basis). Going ahead, we expect the company to continue witnessing good growth, on the back of retail space 52 WK High / Low 455 / 176 expansion, a revival in consumer sentiment, back-end efficiencies and Avg. Daily Volume 302,112 organisational restructuring. We recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock. Face Value (Rs) 2 BSE Sensex 17,745 Retail space expansion on track: In 3QFY2010, PRIL added ~0.5mn sq ft of retail space, thereby taking the total addition during 9MFY2010 to ~1.3mn Nifty 5,322 sq ft. We believe that the retail space expansion is on track, considering the company’s plan to add ~2mn sq ft every year. The retail space expansion is Reuters Code PART.BO skewed towards the value retailing format, accounting for around ~ 65% of Bloomberg Code PF@IN the retail space addition during 3QFY2010. We believe that the improved consumer sentiment, coupled with retail space addition, would bode well for Shareholding Pattern (%) PRIL, going ahead. Promoters 44.7 Outlook and Valuation: PRIL's presence across price points and categories MF/Banks/Indian FIs 22.9 helps the company to be in a better position than its peers. Apart from FII/NRIs/OCBs 25.9 positives like on-track retail space expansion and a revival in consumer sentiment, we believe that the company's restructuring initiative would enable it Indian Public 6.5 to enhance its focus on different segments and would also provide it with a good opportunity of value unlocking. At Rs423, the stock is trading at 20.8x its Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr FY2012E Earnings and at 2.4x its FY2012E P/BV. Our SOTP Target for PRIL is Sensex 5.7 56.6 24.7 Rs469, wherein we have valued its stake in FCH, HSRIL and Future Generali at Rs31, Rs12 and Rs18, respectively. Considering our fair value of Rs469 for the PRIL 62.5 110.1 10.6 stock, we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock. Key Financials (Standalone) Y/E June (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 6,342 8,254 10,704 13,137 % chg 25.6 30.2 29.7 22.7 Net Profit 143.8 221.9 320.6 419.6 % chg 14.2 54.3 44.5 30.9 EBITDA Margin (%) 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.1 EPS (Rs) 7.6 10.8 15.6 20.4 P/E (x) 55.9 39.3 27.2 20.8 P/BV (x) 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.4 RoE (%) 7.0 8.6 10.4 12.2 RoCE (%) 11.3 11.8 13.2 14.7 Viraj Nadkarni EV / Sales (x) 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 309 EV/EBITDA 17.4 14.1 11.5 9.6 E-mail: virajm.nadkarni@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research 1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
  • 2. Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 1: 3QFY2010 Performance Y/E June (Rs cr) 3QFY2010 3QFY2009 % chg 9MFY2010 9MFY2009 % chg Net Sales 2,058 1,642 25.3 5,748 4,679 22.8 Consumption of RM 1,459 1,150 26.9 4,033 3,278 23.0 (% of sales) 70.90 70.03 70.2 70.1 Staff Costs 84.2 69.5 21.2 238.66 204.23 16.9 (% to sales) 4.09 4.23 4.2 4.4 Other expenses 299.0 249.6 19.8 866.37 711.43 21.8 (% to sales) 14.53 15.20 15.1 15.2 Total Expenditure 1,842 1,469 25.4 5,138 4,194 22.5 Operating Profit 215.6 173.0 24.6 609 485 25.5 OPM 10.48 10.54 10.6 10.4 Interest 85.9 84.7 1.3 256.24 227.27 12.7 Depreciation 46.5 36.9 26.0 134.91 101.23 33.3 Other Income 1.4 1.6 (9.4) 8.18 4.27 91.6 PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 84.7 53.0 59.8 226.2 161.0 40.5 Extr. Income/(Expense) - - - - PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 84.7 53.0 59.8 226.2 161.0 40.5 (% of Sales) 4.1 3.2 3.9 3.4 Provision for Taxation 28.80 18.64 54.5 75.78 56.88 33.2 (% of PBT) 34.0 35.2 33.5 35.3 Reported PAT 55.92 34.37 62.7 150.41 104.09 44.5 PATM 2.72 2.09 2.6 2.2 Equity shares (cr) 20.6 17.5 20.6 17.5 EPS (Rs) 2.71 1.96 38.3 7.30 5.94 22.8 Net Sales 2,058 1,642 25.3 5,748 4,679 22.8 Consumption of RM 1,459 1,150 26.9 4,033 3,278 23.0 Source: Company, Angel Research Key Highlights Net Sales surge by 25.3%: Pantaloon Retail (PRIL), on a standalone basis, reported a 25.3% yoy growth in net sales to Rs2, 057.6cr. Higher SSS growth of 13.9% and 13.2%, for value and lifestyle retailing, respectively, during 3QFY2010 (7% and 11%, respectively, during 2QFY2010) enabled the company to post decent top-line growth. Moreover, the Home Retailing format registered a stellar growth of 18.6%yoy (1% growth in 2QFY2010). PRIL posted a total sales growth of 31%, 38.4% and 22.4% yoy, respectively, for value retailing, lifestyle retailing and home retailing during the quarter. Growth in the lifestyle retailing and Home retailing formats are encouraging signs, as they clearly indicate that consumers are opening their wallets for discretionary spending. We believe that a continuation of this trend would bode well for PRIL, thereby enabling it to maintain its top-line growth, going ahead. April 26, 2010 2
  • 3. Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 2: Net Sales Growth Trend 2,400 2,100 12 1,800 9 1,500 1,200 (Rs cr) 6 (%) 900 600 3 300 0 0 2QFY2008 3QFY2008 4QFY2008 1QFY2009 2QFY2009 3QFY2009 4QFY2009 1QFY2010 2QFY2010 3QFY2010 Net Sales Growth (%) Source: Company, Angel Research Operating Margins remain flat: During the quarter, PRIL’s Operating profit witnessed a 24.6% yoy growth to Rs215.6cr. The EBITDA margin stayed flat at 10.5% (on a yoy basis), which was slightly lower than our expectation. In percentage to sales terms, the increase in the raw material cost of ~90bp was offset by a decline in the staff costs and other overheads, thereby enabling the company to maintain its margins. Exhibit 3: EBITDA and Operating Margins 240 200 11.0 12 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.6 10.5 160 8.9 8.4 (Rs cr) 8 120 (%) 80 4 40 0 0 2QFY2008 3QFY2008 4QFY2008 1QFY2009 2QFY2009 3QFY2009 4QFY2009 1QFY2010 2QFY2010 3QFY2010 EBITDA EBITDA Margin Source: Company, Angel Research Bottom-line surges by 62.7%: PRIL’s bottom-line surged by 62.7% yoy to Rs55.9cr (Rs34.4cr) during 3QFY2010. The interest cost has remained flat, with a marginal 1.3% rise on a yoy basis, mainly enabling the growth posted at the operating level to trickle down further to the bottom-line. The Net Profit margin surged up by 60bp yoy to 2.7% in 3QFY2010. April 26, 2010 3
  • 4. Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 4: Net Profit Trend and Net Profit Margins 60 4 50 2.6 2.6 2.7 3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 40 2.2 2.2 2.1 (Rs cr) (%) 30 2 20 1 10 0 0 2QFY2008 3QFY2008 4QFY2008 1QFY2009 2QFY2009 3QFY2009 4QFY2009 1QFY2010 2QFY2010 3QFY2010 Adjusted Profit After Extra-ordinary item Net Margin Source: Company, Angel Research Restructuring on track: PRIL is in the process of restructuring its entire business into retail and non-retail ventures. It is dividing its businesses into three parts, namely, retail, financial services and other support businesses. PRIL has transferred the value business to its wholly-owned subsidiary, Future Value Retail Limited (FVRL). PRIL has reported results for 3QFY2010 excluding FVRL (the erstwhile value retail segment of PRIL, now a wholly-owned subsidiary). However, the company has also provided results including the performance of FVRL for comparative purposes. Outlook and Valuation PRIL's presence across price points and categories helps the company to be in a better position than its peers. Apart from positives like on-track retail space expansion and a revival in consumer sentiment, we believe that the company's restructuring initiative would enable it to enhance its focus on different segments and would also provide it with a good opportunity of value unlocking. We estimate the company to clock around a 27.5% and 42.4% CAGR in its revenues and bottom- line, respectively, over FY2009-12E. At Rs423, the stock is trading at 20.8x its FY2012E Earnings and at 2.4x FY2012E P/BV. Our SOTP Target for PRIL is Rs469 on FY2012E valuations, wherein we have valued its stake in FCH, HSRIL and Future Generali at Rs31, Rs12 and Rs18, respectively. PRIL continues to be our Top Pick in the Retail Sector. Considering its fair value of Rs469, we recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock. Exhibit 5: 1 year forward PE band 900 50x 800 700 600 35x 500 400 22x 300 200 10x 100 0 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Source: Company, Angel Research April 26, 2010 4
  • 5. Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone) Rs crore Y/E June FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 3,237 5,049 6,342 8,254 10,704 13,137 Other operating income - - - - - - Total operating income 3,237 5,049 6,342 8,254 10,704 13,137 % chg 73.2 56.0 25.6 30.2 29.7 22.7 Total Expenditure 3,021 4,588 5,673 7,404 9,623 11,810 Net Raw Materials 2,209 3,512 4,430 5,762 7,472 9,170 Other Mfg costs 606 802 969 1,271 1,670 2,049 Personnel 206.1 274.1 274.3 371.4 481.7 591.2 Other - - - - - - EBITDA 215.5 460.5 668.4 850.2 1,081.1 1,326.8 % chg 47.0 113.7 45.2 27.2 27.2 22.7 (% of Net Sales) 6.7 9.1 10.5 10.3 10.1 10.1 Depreciation& Amortisation 36.9 83.4 140.1 167.5 198.0 232.0 EBIT 178.7 377.1 528.4 682.7 883.1 1,094.8 % chg 56.5 111.1 40.1 29.2 29.4 24.0 (% of Net Sales) 5.5 7.5 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 Interest & other Charges 89.8 185.3 318.2 343.8 397.1 452.0 Other Income 31.9 3.8 9.1 5.8 9.8 7.8 (% of PBT) 26.4 1.9 4.1 1.7 2.0 1.2 Recurring PBT 120.8 195.6 219.2 344.7 495.8 650.7 % chg 50.6 61.9 12.1 57.3 43.8 31.2 Extraordinary Income/(Exp.) 60.10 - - PBT (reported) 180.9 195.6 219.2 344.7 495.8 650.7 Tax 61.0 69.7 75.4 122.8 175.2 231.1 (% of PBT) 33.7 35.6 34.4 35.6 35.3 35.5 PAT (reported) 120.0 125.9 143.8 221.9 320.6 419.6 ADJ. PAT 59.9 125.9 143.8 221.9 320.6 419.6 % chg 15.7 110.3 14.2 54.3 44.5 30.9 (% of Net Sales) 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.2 Basic EPS (Rs) 4.1 7.9 7.6 10.8 15.6 20.4 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.1 7.9 7.6 10.8 15.6 20.4 % chg 190.5 93.8 (4.4) 42.5 44.5 30.9 April 26, 2010 5
  • 6. Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update Balance Sheet (Standalone) Rs crore Y/E June FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 29.4 31.9 38.1 41.2 41.2 41.2 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 1,063 1,815 2,234 2,852 3,222 3,558 Shareholders Funds 1,092 1,847 2,272 2,893 3,263 3,599 Total Loans 1,300 2,192 2,850 3,327 3,753 4,139 Deferred Tax Liability 55.8 67.8 116.1 67.8 67.8 67.8 Total Liabilities 2,448 4,106 5,239 6,289 7,084 7,805 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 767 1,369 1,876 2,204 2,606 3,006 Less: Acc. Depreciation 92.5 175.9 307.7 480.5 678.5 910.5 Net Block 675 1,193 1,569 1,723 1,928 2,095 Capital Work-in-Progress 131.1 330.6 345.2 219.3 221.2 219.6 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 252 587 954 1,000 1,000 1,000 Current Assets 1,749 2,635 3,283 4,277 5,126 5,939 Cash 164 127 109 190 181 211 Loans & Advances 634 962 1,208 1,692 2,248 2,693 Other 952 1,545 1,965 2,395 2,697 3,035 Current liabilities 360 639 912 931 1,191 1,448 Net Current Assets 1,390 1,996 2,371 3,346 3,935 4,490 Total Assets 2,448 4,106 5,239 6,289 7,084 7,805 Cash Flow Statement Rs crore Y/E June FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 180.9 195.6 219.2 344.7 495.8 650.7 Depreciation 36.9 83.4 140.1 167.5 198.0 232.0 Change in Working Capital (427.4) (593.3) (419.9) (429.9) (302.0) 338.0) Less: Other income 31.9 3.8 9.1 5.8 9.8 7.8 Direct taxes paid 61.0 69.7 75.4 122.8 175.2 231.1 Cash Flow from Operations (302.5) (387.8) (145.1) (46.3) 206.8 305.8 (Inc)./ Dec in Fixed Assets (582.4) (980.0) (1,051.7) (719.0) (843.0) (608.4) (Inc)./ Dec in Investments (90.3) (334.5) (367.5) (46.0) - - (Inc)/ Dec in loans and advances (336.3) (328.5) (246.0) (483.9) (555.7) (445.2) Other income 31.9 3.8 9.1 5.8 9.8 7.8 Cash Flow from Investing (977) (1,639) (1,656) (1,243) (1,389) (1,046) Issue of Equity 2.5 2.5 6.2 3.2 - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 698.2 892.2 658.6 477.0 425.3 385.9 Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (7.5) (9.6) (11.4) (12.4) (12.4) (12.4) Others 727.7 1,105.5 1,129.7 901.8 760.7 396.0 Cash Flow from Financing 1,421 1,991 1,783 1,370 1,174 770 Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 141.3 (36.3) (18.1) 80.3 (8.5) 29.6 Opening Cash balances 22.5 163.8 127.4 109.3 189.6 181.2 Closing Cash balances 163.8 127.4 109.3 189.6 181.2 210.7 April 26, 2010 6
  • 7. Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update Key Ratios (Standalone) Y/E June FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 104.1 53.7 56.2 39.4 27.3 20.9 P/CEPS 64.4 32.3 28.5 22.5 16.9 13.4 P/BV 5.7 3.7 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.4 Dividend yield (%) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 EV/Sales 3.1 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.9 EV/EBITDA 46.4 23.7 17.4 14.1 11.5 9.6 EV / Total Assets 4.1 2.7 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.6 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 4.1 7.9 7.6 10.8 15.6 20.4 EPS (fully diluted) 4.1 7.9 7.6 10.8 15.6 20.4 Cash EPS 6.6 13.1 14.9 18.9 25.2 31.6 DPS 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Book Value 74.4 115.9 119.4 140.4 158.3 174.6 Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 5.5 7.5 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 Tax retention ratio 66.3 64.4 65.6 64.4 64.7 64.5 Asset turnover (x) 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.7 RoIC (Post-tax) 4.8 5.9 6.6 7.0 8.1 9.0 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 6.3 6.8 8.3 7.2 7.3 7.4 Leverage (x) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 Operating RoE 3.3 4.9 4.7 6.8 8.9 10.9 Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) 9.9 11.5 11.3 11.8 13.2 14.7 Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 8.3 10.3 11.0 11.6 13.2 14.8 RoE 7.4 8.6 7.0 8.6 10.4 12.2 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 5.7 4.7 3.9 4.0 4.5 4.7 Inventory / Sales (days) 78.5 83.7 96.0 91.0 80.5 74.5 Receivables (days) 4.6 6.4 7.4 7.3 6.3 5.1 Payables (days) 36.5 39.7 49.9 45.4 40.2 40.8 WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 101.6 111.9 118.9 119.8 117.8 111.6 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 Net debt to EBITDA 5.3 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.3 3.0 Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 2.0 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4 April 26, 2010 7
  • 8. Pantaloon Retail I 3QFY2010 Result Update Research Team Tel: 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement Pantaloon Retail 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies. Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 April 26, 2010 8