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4QFY2010 Result Update I Media
                                                                                                                        May 24, 2010




  TV Today Network                                                                       NEUTRAL
                                                                                         CMP                                   Rs103
  Performance Highlights                                                                 Target Price                              -

  During the quarter, TV Today (TVTN) amalgamated its radio broadcasting                Investment Period                           -
  business of Radio Today Broadcasting Ltd (RTBL), effective from April 1, 2009.
  Hence, the current quarter’s results and the FY2010 financials include the full       Stock Info
  year’s results of operations of RTBL and are not comparable yoy or qoq. After         Sector                         Broadcasting
  strong revenue traction in the broadcasting business and amalgamation of the
  Radio business, we have revised our Top-line estimates for TVTN marginally            Market Cap (Rs cr)                       597
  upwards by 3-4%. However, on the Operating front, we have cut our Margin              Beta                                      1.2
  estimates by 250-350bp to model in losses incurred in the Radio Business. We
  downgrade the stock to Neutral.                                                       52 WK High / Low                      152/76

                                                                                        Avg. Daily Volume                    397,908
  Broadcasting business on steady footing; Radio drags Bottom-line: TVTN
  reported a Top-line growth of 46.9% yoy to Rs78.9cr (Rs53.7cr), aided by              Face Value (Rs)                             5
  steady growth in its broadcasting business and the amalgamation of its Radio
                                                                                        BSE Sensex                            11,516
  business. In terms of Earnings, the company reported a loss of Rs10.1cr (Profit
  of Rs8.1cr) and its Operating Margin contracted by 596bp yoy to 3.5%                  Nifty                                  4,944
  (9.5%), owing to losses incurred in its Radio business. Earnings for the quarter
                                                                                        Reuters Code                         TVTO.BO
  were also impacted due to a significant dip in Other Income to a loss of
  Rs0.1cr (Income of Rs8.9cr), as loans advanced to the Radio subsidiary to the         Bloomberg Code                      TVTN @IN
  tune of Rs55cr were reversed post-amalgamation. For the full year FY2010,
  TVTN reported a Top-line of Rs285cr (Rs266.6cr advertising revenue, Rs14cr            Shareholding Pattern (%)
  subscription revenue and Rs4.4cr radio revenue). Earnings for the year                Promoters                               55.9
  declined to Rs31cr, due to a Rs38cr loss in the Radio business.
                                                                                        MF/Banks/Indian FIs                     37.3
  Outlook and Valuation: Going ahead, we expect TV Today to post a CAGR of              FII/NRIs/OCBs                            0.1
  14.2% in its Top-line and 40% in Earnings (due to a low base in FY2010, after
  the radio amalgamation) during FY2010-12E. Earnings for the period are                Indian Public                            6.7
  likely to be boosted due to a lower Tax rate on account of accumulated losses         Abs. (%)            3m        1yr         3yr
  in the Radio business. While amalgamation of the Radio business and the
  strategic investment into Mail Today indicate some signs of aggression (key           Sensex              1.3       18.6       15.8
  investor concern over the past several years), substantial losses in both the
  businesses and a lack of clarity are likely to act as overhangs on TV Today’s         TVTN              (8.0)       3.6       (35.0)
  stock price. Hence, we downgrade the stock to Neutral, with a Fair Value of
  Rs102 (based on 10x FY2012E EPS).

   Key Financials (Standalone)
   Y/E March (Rs cr)                 FY2009       FY2010E         FY2011E   FY2012E
   Net Sales                           250              285          328       371
   % chg                                8.1            13.9          15.1      13.3
   Net Profit (Adj)                      34              31           53        61
   % chg                              (23.2)           (7.9)         71.5      14.6
   OPM (%)                             17.6            18.3          21.5      23.7
   EPS (Rs)                             5.6             5.2           8.9      10.2
   P/E (x)                             17.8            19.4          11.3       9.8   Anand Shah
   P/BV (x)                             1.8             1.7           1.5       1.3   Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 334
                                                                                      E-mail: anand.shah@angeltrade.com
   RoE (%)                             10.4             8.9          13.4      13.5
   RoCE (%)                             7.7             8.1          11.2      12.7
                                                                                      Chitrangda Kapur
   EV/Sales (x)                         1.8             1.5           1.3       1.1
                                                                                      Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 323
   EV/EBITDA (x)                        9.9             8.3           5.8       4.6   E-mail: chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
   Source: Company, Angel Research


                                                                                                                                        1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                          Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
TVTN I 4QFY2010 Result Update

               Exhibit 1: Financial Performance Update
                Y/E March (Rs cr)            4QFY10      4QFY09        % chg    FY2010       FY2009       % chg
                Net Sales                      78.9        53.7         46.9     284.8        250.0        13.9
                Employee Cost                    25.1        16.0       57.2        83.0        69.9       18.7
                (% of sales)                     31.9        29.8                   29.2        28.0
                Transmission & Prod.             13.8         6.8      103.3        35.9        26.9       33.4
                (% of sales)                     17.5        12.6                   12.6        10.8
                Advt. & Dist Cost                16.5        16.9       (2.0)       60.3        67.5      (10.7)
                (% of sales)                     20.9        31.4                   21.2        27.0
                Other Expenditure                20.7         9.0      130.3        53.6        41.6       28.9
                (% of sales)                     26.2        16.7                   18.8        16.6
                Total Expenditure                76.1        48.6       56.6      232.8        205.9       13.0
                Operating Profit                  2.8         5.1     (45.2)        52.1        44.1       18.1
                OPM (%)                           3.5         9.5                   18.3        17.6
                Interest                          6.9         0.1                    7.0          0.1
                Depreciation                      8.3         4.6       78.9        21.1        19.4           8.6
                Other Income                     (0.1)        8.9                   23.1        24.2       (4.6)
                PBT (excl Ext. Items)           (12.5)        9.3                   47.0        48.7       (3.5)
                Ext Income/(Exp.)                 0.0         0.0                   (0.0)         0.0
                PBT (Incl. Ext Items)           (12.5)        9.3                   47.0        48.7       (3.6)
                (% of Sales)                    (15.9)       17.3                   16.5        19.5
                Prov. for Taxation               (2.5)        1.2                   16.1        15.2           6.1
                (% of PBT)                       19.6        12.7                   34.3        31.2
                Recurring PAT                   (10.1)        8.1                   30.9        33.5       (7.9)
                PATM (%)                        (12.8)       15.1                   10.8        13.4
                Reported PAT                    (10.1)        8.1                   30.9        33.5       (8.0)
                Equity Shares (cr)                5.8         5.8                    5.8          5.8
                EPS (Rs)                         (1.7)        1.4                    5.3          5.8
               Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Numbers not comparable due to merger of Radio business


               Radio business transfer complete

               During the quarter, TV Today completed the transfer of its radio broadcasting
               business of Radio Today Broadcasting Ltd (RTBL), effective from April 1, 2009. RTBL
               runs India's first talk-based, women-centric radio station under the banner of Meow
               104.8 FM in seven cities (Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Amritsar, Patiala, Shimla and
               Jodhpur). In accordance, TV Today will issue 1.66mn equity shares to the equity
               shareholders of RTBL, in a ratio of 1 equity share for every 6 equity shares held in
               RTBL, leading to an equity dilution of 2.8% in TV Today. Consequent to the merger,
               the company is eligible for Tax benefits, due to carry forward losses of the erstwhile
               RTBL.

               For FY2010, the Radio business registered a Top-line of Rs4.4cr, and losses of
               Rs22cr and Rs38cr at the EBIT and PAT levels, respectively. The same have been
               consolidated for the full year in 4QFY2010.

               Forays into Print Media via Mail Today

               TV Today has made a strategic investment in Mail Today Newspapers Pvt. Ltd.
               (MTNPL), a JV between the India Today Group and Daily Mail of London (part of the
               Associated Newspapers Group), by making an advance payment of Rs18.5cr
               towards subscribing to the equity shares of MTNPL. The management has indicated
               that it will be investing a total amount of Rs45cr for a ~10-12% stake in Mail Today.

               Mail Today, established in November 2007, is a daily newspaper in the compact
               format, published by MTNPL. Currently, there is one edition of the paper published
               from Delhi, which consists of 48 pages.
May 24, 2010                                                                                    2
TVTN I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Outlook and Valuation

               The current quarter’s results and FY2010 financials include the full year’s results of
               operations of RTBL; hence, these are not comparable yoy or qoq.

               After the strong revenue traction in the broadcasting business (reflected in the
               4QFY2010 results) and amalgamation of the Radio business, we have revised our
               Top-line estimates for TVTN marginally upwards by 3-4%, modeling in: 1) a 14%
               CAGR in Advertising revenues (Headlines Today has gained marketshare in English
               News by 500-600bp to ~17% YTD), 2) Subscription revenues of Rs17cr and Rs19cr
               in FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively (reported ~Rs14cr in FY2010), and 3) Radio
               revenues of Rs6cr and Rs7.5cr in FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively (reported
               Rs4.4cr in FY2010).

               However, on the Operating front, we have cut our Margin estimates by 250-350bp,
               despite a Margin improvement in the Broadcasting business (TVTN has saved
               substantially to the tune of ~Rs20cr in carriage fees for FY2010), to model in losses
               incurred in the Radio Business (Incurred a Rs22cr loss at the EBIT level and Rs38cr at
               the PAT level in FY2010). On a conservative basis, we have assumed Radio losses to
               remain at similar levels, despite the potentially synergistic benefits after the
               amalgamation with TVTN. Hence, our Earnings estimates have been revised
               downwards by 10-13%.

               Exhibit 2: Revision in Estimates
                                   Old Estimate              New Estimate               % chg
               (Rs cr)         FY2011E FY2012E           FY2011E     FY2012E      FY2011E FY2012E
               Revenue              314          360         328          371          4.2        3.1
               OPM (%)               25           26          22           24      (337bp)    (261bp)
               EPS                   10           12           9           10        (10.3)     (12.7)
               Source: Company, Angel Research

               Going ahead, we expect TV Today to post a CAGR of 14.2% in its Top-line and 40%
               in Earnings (due to a low base in FY2010, after the radio amalgamation) during
               FY2010-12E. Earnings for the period are likely to be boosted due to a lower Tax
               rate, on account of accumulated losses in the Radio business. The management has
               indicated that debt has increased to Rs35cr (due to amalgamation of the radio
               business) and cash on books stands at Rs120-130cr.

               While the amalgamation of the Radio business and strategic investment into Mail
               Today indicate some signs of aggression (key investor concern over the past several
               years), substantial losses in both the businesses and a lack of clarity are likely to act
               as overhangs on TV Today’s stock price. Hence, we downgrade the stock to Neutral,
               with a Fair Value of Rs102 (based on 10x FY2012E EPS).

               Key upside risks to our estimates include: 1) A Significant reduction in the losses of
               the Radio business, and 2) The Launch of new channels (possible after shifting to the
               new office premise in 2HFY2011).




May 24, 2010                                                                                             3
TVTN I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone)                                              Rs crore
               Y/E March                      FY2007      FY2008   FY2009    FY2010    FY2011E   FY2012E
               Gross sales                      189         231      250       285        328        371
               Less: Excise duty                      -        -         -         -         -          -
               Net Sales                        189         231      250       285        328        371
               Total operating income           189         231      250       285        328        371
               % chg                            18.5        22.2      8.1      13.9       15.1      13.3
               Total Expenditure                137         169      206       233        257        283
               Cost of Material                   21         27        27        36        42         47
               SG&A Expenses                      34         46        68        60        66         72
               Staff Costs                        45         55        70        83        90        101
               Other Expenses                     37         40        42        45        51         55
               EBITDA                             52         63        44        52        71         88
               % chg                            (0.2)       20.3    (29.6)     18.1       35.5      24.7
               (% of Net Sales)                 27.5        27.1     17.6      18.3       21.5      23.7
               Depreciation                       17         16        19        21        24         29
               EBIT                               35         47        25        31        46         59
               % chg                             1.6        33.0    (47.0)     25.5       49.5      26.6
               (% of Net Sales)                 18.5        20.1      9.9      10.9       14.1      15.8
               Interest & other Charges            0          0         0         7         4          2
               Other Income                       14         20        24        23        24         24
               (% of PBT)                       27.9        30.5     49.7      49.1       36.2      30.1
               Share of Associates                    -        -         -         -         -          -
               Recurring PBT                      48         67        49        47        66         81
               % chg                            13.4        38.1    (27.1)     (3.5)      40.9      22.3
               Extr. Exp./(Inc.)                      -        -         -       (0)         -          -
               PBT (reported)                     48         67        49        47        66         81
               Tax                                17         23        15        16        13         20
               (% of PBT)                       35.1        34.6     31.2      34.3       20.0      25.0
               PAT (reported)                     31         44        34        31        53         61
               Add: Share of associates               -        -         -         -         -          -
               Less: Minority interest (MI)           -        -         -         -         -          -
               PAT after MI (reported)            31         44        34        31        53         61
               ADJ. PAT                           31         44        34        31        53         61
               % chg                            12.8        39.1    (23.2)     (7.9)      71.5      14.6
               (% of Net Sales)                 16.6        18.9     13.4      10.8       16.2      16.4
               Basic EPS (Rs)                    5.4         7.5      5.8       5.3        8.9      10.2
               Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)            5.3         7.4      5.6       5.2        8.9      10.2
               % chg                            12.8        39.1    (23.2)     (8.0)      71.7      14.6




May 24, 2010                                                                                           4
TVTN I 4QFY2010 Result Update


               Balance Sheet (Standalone)                                                                    Rs crore
               Y/E March                      FY2007           FY2008       FY2009       FY2010E FY2011E     FY2012E
               SOURCES OF FUNDS
               Equity Share Capital                29             29           29            29       30         30
               Preference Capital                    -              -            -             -        -          -
               Reserves& Surplus                  226            264          293           319      366        422
               Shareholders Funds                 255            293          322           347      396        452
               Minority Interest                     -              -            -             -        -          -
               Total Loans                          4               -            -           35       20         10
               Deferred Tax Liability               3              2           (2)           (2)      (2)        (2)
               Total Liabilities                  262            295          320           381      414        460
               APPLICATION OF FUNDS
               Gross Block                        160            157          162           190      243        309
               Less: Acc. Depreciation             73             79           97           119      143        172
               Net Block                           88             78           65            71      100        137
               Capital Work-in-Progress            10              8           31            38       24         22
               Goodwill                              -              -            -             -        -          -
               Investments                         55            110           53            73       98         98
               Current Assets                     224            160          227           264      268        288
                  Cash                             80             49           91           111       95         92
                  Loans & Advances                 78             32           70            83       95        108
                  Other                            65             80           65            71       78         89
               Current liabilities                115             60           56            66       76         86
               Net Current Assets                 109            100          171           198      192        203
               Mis. Exp. not written off            0               -            -             -        -          -
               Total Assets                       262            295          320           381      414        460



               Cash Flow Statement (Standalone)                                                              Rs crore
               Y/E March                          FY2007        FY2008       FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
               Profit before tax                         48         67           49           47       66        81
               Depreciation                              17         16           19           21       24        29
               Change in Working Capital                 (1)       (21)         (27)          (7)    (10)       (12)
               Interest / Dividend (Net)                 (6)       (11)         (11)          (2)      (6)      (11)
               Direct taxes paid                         17         23           15           16       13        20
               Others                                    (6)        (1)          (9)          (7)      (4)       (4)
               Cash Flow from Operations                 35         27               5        35       57        64
               Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets         (14)            (6)         (29)         (35)    (39)       (64)
               Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments          (15)           (52)          62          (20)    (25)          0
               Cash Flow from Investing             (29)           (58)          34          (55)    (64)       (64)
               Issue of Equity                            0             0        (0)          (0)       1          0
               Inc./(Dec.) in loans                      (0)        (4)              0        35     (15)       (10)
               Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)                  5             5            5         5        5          5
               Interest / Dividend (Net)                 (7)        (9)          (9)          (9)    (10)       (12)
               Cash Flow from Financing                   2         (1)              3        39       (9)       (3)
               Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                        8        (32)          42           20     (16)        (3)
               Opening Cash balances                     72         80           49           91     111         95
               Closing Cash balances                     80         49           91          111       95        92




May 24, 2010                                                                                                       5
TVTN I 4QFY2010 Result Update



               Key Ratios
                Y/E March                             FY2007    FY2008    FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
                Valuation Ratio (x)
                P/E (on FDEPS)                          19.0      11.2      21.7    11.5    10.5     9.3
                P/CEPS                                  12.0      10.1      17.6     9.9     9.1     8.1
                P/BV                                     2.3       2.8       2.6     2.3     2.0     1.8
                Dividend yield (%)                       0.7       0.7       0.7     0.7     0.7     0.7
                EV/Sales                                 2.4       1.8       1.8     1.5     1.3     1.1
                EV/EBITDA                                8.7       6.8       9.9     8.3     5.8     4.6
                EV / Total Assets                        1.7       1.4       1.4     1.1     1.0     0.9
                Per Share Data (Rs)
                EPS (Basic)                              5.4       7.5       5.8     5.3     8.9    10.2
                EPS (fully diluted)                      5.3       7.4       5.6     5.2     8.9    10.2
                Cash EPS                                 8.3      10.3       9.1     9.0    13.0    15.2
                DPS                                      0.8       0.8       0.8     0.8     0.8     0.8
                Book Value                              43.9      50.6      55.5    60.1    66.6    76.0
                Dupont Analysis
                EBIT margin                             18.5      20.1       9.9    10.9    14.1    15.8
                Tax retention ratio                      0.6       0.7       0.7     0.7     0.8     0.8
                Asset turnover (x)                       0.3       0.4       0.2     0.2     0.2     0.2
                ROIC (Post-tax)                          3.3       4.7       1.1     1.2     2.5     2.8
                Cost of Debt (Post Tax)                     -         -         -       -       -       -
                Leverage (x)                            (0.5)     (0.5)     (0.5)   (0.4)   (0.4)   (0.4)
                Operating ROE                            1.7       2.2       0.5     0.7     1.4     1.6
                Returns (%)
                RoCE (Pre-tax)                          14.0      16.7       8.0     8.8    11.6    13.4
                Angel RoIC (Pre-tax)                    27.6      35.3      15.8    16.6    22.1    23.9
                RoE                                     13.0      16.0      10.9     9.2    14.3    14.3
                Turnover ratios (x)
                Asset Turnover (Gross Block)             1.2       1.5       1.6     1.6     1.5     1.3
                Inventory / Sales (days)                    -         -         -       -       -       -
                Receivables (days)                      126       126         95      91      87      87
                Payables (days)                           78        83        67      71      71      72
                W.cap. cycle (ex-cash) (days)             56        81       117    112      108    109
                Solvency ratios (x)
                Net debt to equity                      (0.5)     (0.5)     (0.4)   (0.4)   (0.4)   (0.4)
                Net debt to EBITDA                      (2.5)     (2.5)     (3.3)   (2.9)   (2.5)   (2.0)
                Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest)    286.1     495.9     180.5     4.4    11.6    29.3




May 24, 2010                                                                                           6
TVTN I 4QFY2010 Result Update



Research Team Tel: 022- 4040 3800                                          E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                       Website: www.angeltrade.com


DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this
document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved),
and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company
may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable source believed to be true,
and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we
cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel
Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other
reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly.

Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services
in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the
use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                             TVTN
 1.    Analyst ownership of the stock                                                           No
 2.    Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                                     No
 3.    Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock                          No
 4. Broking relationship with company covered                                No
 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.




                                Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                                    Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800



    Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
    INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
    Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
    CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302




May 24, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                7

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TV today ru4 qfy2010-250510

  • 1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I Media May 24, 2010 TV Today Network NEUTRAL CMP Rs103 Performance Highlights Target Price - During the quarter, TV Today (TVTN) amalgamated its radio broadcasting Investment Period - business of Radio Today Broadcasting Ltd (RTBL), effective from April 1, 2009. Hence, the current quarter’s results and the FY2010 financials include the full Stock Info year’s results of operations of RTBL and are not comparable yoy or qoq. After Sector Broadcasting strong revenue traction in the broadcasting business and amalgamation of the Radio business, we have revised our Top-line estimates for TVTN marginally Market Cap (Rs cr) 597 upwards by 3-4%. However, on the Operating front, we have cut our Margin Beta 1.2 estimates by 250-350bp to model in losses incurred in the Radio Business. We downgrade the stock to Neutral. 52 WK High / Low 152/76 Avg. Daily Volume 397,908 Broadcasting business on steady footing; Radio drags Bottom-line: TVTN reported a Top-line growth of 46.9% yoy to Rs78.9cr (Rs53.7cr), aided by Face Value (Rs) 5 steady growth in its broadcasting business and the amalgamation of its Radio BSE Sensex 11,516 business. In terms of Earnings, the company reported a loss of Rs10.1cr (Profit of Rs8.1cr) and its Operating Margin contracted by 596bp yoy to 3.5% Nifty 4,944 (9.5%), owing to losses incurred in its Radio business. Earnings for the quarter Reuters Code TVTO.BO were also impacted due to a significant dip in Other Income to a loss of Rs0.1cr (Income of Rs8.9cr), as loans advanced to the Radio subsidiary to the Bloomberg Code TVTN @IN tune of Rs55cr were reversed post-amalgamation. For the full year FY2010, TVTN reported a Top-line of Rs285cr (Rs266.6cr advertising revenue, Rs14cr Shareholding Pattern (%) subscription revenue and Rs4.4cr radio revenue). Earnings for the year Promoters 55.9 declined to Rs31cr, due to a Rs38cr loss in the Radio business. MF/Banks/Indian FIs 37.3 Outlook and Valuation: Going ahead, we expect TV Today to post a CAGR of FII/NRIs/OCBs 0.1 14.2% in its Top-line and 40% in Earnings (due to a low base in FY2010, after the radio amalgamation) during FY2010-12E. Earnings for the period are Indian Public 6.7 likely to be boosted due to a lower Tax rate on account of accumulated losses Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr in the Radio business. While amalgamation of the Radio business and the strategic investment into Mail Today indicate some signs of aggression (key Sensex 1.3 18.6 15.8 investor concern over the past several years), substantial losses in both the businesses and a lack of clarity are likely to act as overhangs on TV Today’s TVTN (8.0) 3.6 (35.0) stock price. Hence, we downgrade the stock to Neutral, with a Fair Value of Rs102 (based on 10x FY2012E EPS). Key Financials (Standalone) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 250 285 328 371 % chg 8.1 13.9 15.1 13.3 Net Profit (Adj) 34 31 53 61 % chg (23.2) (7.9) 71.5 14.6 OPM (%) 17.6 18.3 21.5 23.7 EPS (Rs) 5.6 5.2 8.9 10.2 P/E (x) 17.8 19.4 11.3 9.8 Anand Shah P/BV (x) 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 334 E-mail: anand.shah@angeltrade.com RoE (%) 10.4 8.9 13.4 13.5 RoCE (%) 7.7 8.1 11.2 12.7 Chitrangda Kapur EV/Sales (x) 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 323 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 8.3 5.8 4.6 E-mail: chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research 1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
  • 2. TVTN I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 1: Financial Performance Update Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY10 4QFY09 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg Net Sales 78.9 53.7 46.9 284.8 250.0 13.9 Employee Cost 25.1 16.0 57.2 83.0 69.9 18.7 (% of sales) 31.9 29.8 29.2 28.0 Transmission & Prod. 13.8 6.8 103.3 35.9 26.9 33.4 (% of sales) 17.5 12.6 12.6 10.8 Advt. & Dist Cost 16.5 16.9 (2.0) 60.3 67.5 (10.7) (% of sales) 20.9 31.4 21.2 27.0 Other Expenditure 20.7 9.0 130.3 53.6 41.6 28.9 (% of sales) 26.2 16.7 18.8 16.6 Total Expenditure 76.1 48.6 56.6 232.8 205.9 13.0 Operating Profit 2.8 5.1 (45.2) 52.1 44.1 18.1 OPM (%) 3.5 9.5 18.3 17.6 Interest 6.9 0.1 7.0 0.1 Depreciation 8.3 4.6 78.9 21.1 19.4 8.6 Other Income (0.1) 8.9 23.1 24.2 (4.6) PBT (excl Ext. Items) (12.5) 9.3 47.0 48.7 (3.5) Ext Income/(Exp.) 0.0 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 PBT (Incl. Ext Items) (12.5) 9.3 47.0 48.7 (3.6) (% of Sales) (15.9) 17.3 16.5 19.5 Prov. for Taxation (2.5) 1.2 16.1 15.2 6.1 (% of PBT) 19.6 12.7 34.3 31.2 Recurring PAT (10.1) 8.1 30.9 33.5 (7.9) PATM (%) (12.8) 15.1 10.8 13.4 Reported PAT (10.1) 8.1 30.9 33.5 (8.0) Equity Shares (cr) 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 EPS (Rs) (1.7) 1.4 5.3 5.8 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Numbers not comparable due to merger of Radio business Radio business transfer complete During the quarter, TV Today completed the transfer of its radio broadcasting business of Radio Today Broadcasting Ltd (RTBL), effective from April 1, 2009. RTBL runs India's first talk-based, women-centric radio station under the banner of Meow 104.8 FM in seven cities (Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Amritsar, Patiala, Shimla and Jodhpur). In accordance, TV Today will issue 1.66mn equity shares to the equity shareholders of RTBL, in a ratio of 1 equity share for every 6 equity shares held in RTBL, leading to an equity dilution of 2.8% in TV Today. Consequent to the merger, the company is eligible for Tax benefits, due to carry forward losses of the erstwhile RTBL. For FY2010, the Radio business registered a Top-line of Rs4.4cr, and losses of Rs22cr and Rs38cr at the EBIT and PAT levels, respectively. The same have been consolidated for the full year in 4QFY2010. Forays into Print Media via Mail Today TV Today has made a strategic investment in Mail Today Newspapers Pvt. Ltd. (MTNPL), a JV between the India Today Group and Daily Mail of London (part of the Associated Newspapers Group), by making an advance payment of Rs18.5cr towards subscribing to the equity shares of MTNPL. The management has indicated that it will be investing a total amount of Rs45cr for a ~10-12% stake in Mail Today. Mail Today, established in November 2007, is a daily newspaper in the compact format, published by MTNPL. Currently, there is one edition of the paper published from Delhi, which consists of 48 pages. May 24, 2010 2
  • 3. TVTN I 4QFY2010 Result Update Outlook and Valuation The current quarter’s results and FY2010 financials include the full year’s results of operations of RTBL; hence, these are not comparable yoy or qoq. After the strong revenue traction in the broadcasting business (reflected in the 4QFY2010 results) and amalgamation of the Radio business, we have revised our Top-line estimates for TVTN marginally upwards by 3-4%, modeling in: 1) a 14% CAGR in Advertising revenues (Headlines Today has gained marketshare in English News by 500-600bp to ~17% YTD), 2) Subscription revenues of Rs17cr and Rs19cr in FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively (reported ~Rs14cr in FY2010), and 3) Radio revenues of Rs6cr and Rs7.5cr in FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively (reported Rs4.4cr in FY2010). However, on the Operating front, we have cut our Margin estimates by 250-350bp, despite a Margin improvement in the Broadcasting business (TVTN has saved substantially to the tune of ~Rs20cr in carriage fees for FY2010), to model in losses incurred in the Radio Business (Incurred a Rs22cr loss at the EBIT level and Rs38cr at the PAT level in FY2010). On a conservative basis, we have assumed Radio losses to remain at similar levels, despite the potentially synergistic benefits after the amalgamation with TVTN. Hence, our Earnings estimates have been revised downwards by 10-13%. Exhibit 2: Revision in Estimates Old Estimate New Estimate % chg (Rs cr) FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E Revenue 314 360 328 371 4.2 3.1 OPM (%) 25 26 22 24 (337bp) (261bp) EPS 10 12 9 10 (10.3) (12.7) Source: Company, Angel Research Going ahead, we expect TV Today to post a CAGR of 14.2% in its Top-line and 40% in Earnings (due to a low base in FY2010, after the radio amalgamation) during FY2010-12E. Earnings for the period are likely to be boosted due to a lower Tax rate, on account of accumulated losses in the Radio business. The management has indicated that debt has increased to Rs35cr (due to amalgamation of the radio business) and cash on books stands at Rs120-130cr. While the amalgamation of the Radio business and strategic investment into Mail Today indicate some signs of aggression (key investor concern over the past several years), substantial losses in both the businesses and a lack of clarity are likely to act as overhangs on TV Today’s stock price. Hence, we downgrade the stock to Neutral, with a Fair Value of Rs102 (based on 10x FY2012E EPS). Key upside risks to our estimates include: 1) A Significant reduction in the losses of the Radio business, and 2) The Launch of new channels (possible after shifting to the new office premise in 2HFY2011). May 24, 2010 3
  • 4. TVTN I 4QFY2010 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone) Rs crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 189 231 250 285 328 371 Less: Excise duty - - - - - - Net Sales 189 231 250 285 328 371 Total operating income 189 231 250 285 328 371 % chg 18.5 22.2 8.1 13.9 15.1 13.3 Total Expenditure 137 169 206 233 257 283 Cost of Material 21 27 27 36 42 47 SG&A Expenses 34 46 68 60 66 72 Staff Costs 45 55 70 83 90 101 Other Expenses 37 40 42 45 51 55 EBITDA 52 63 44 52 71 88 % chg (0.2) 20.3 (29.6) 18.1 35.5 24.7 (% of Net Sales) 27.5 27.1 17.6 18.3 21.5 23.7 Depreciation 17 16 19 21 24 29 EBIT 35 47 25 31 46 59 % chg 1.6 33.0 (47.0) 25.5 49.5 26.6 (% of Net Sales) 18.5 20.1 9.9 10.9 14.1 15.8 Interest & other Charges 0 0 0 7 4 2 Other Income 14 20 24 23 24 24 (% of PBT) 27.9 30.5 49.7 49.1 36.2 30.1 Share of Associates - - - - - - Recurring PBT 48 67 49 47 66 81 % chg 13.4 38.1 (27.1) (3.5) 40.9 22.3 Extr. Exp./(Inc.) - - - (0) - - PBT (reported) 48 67 49 47 66 81 Tax 17 23 15 16 13 20 (% of PBT) 35.1 34.6 31.2 34.3 20.0 25.0 PAT (reported) 31 44 34 31 53 61 Add: Share of associates - - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - - PAT after MI (reported) 31 44 34 31 53 61 ADJ. PAT 31 44 34 31 53 61 % chg 12.8 39.1 (23.2) (7.9) 71.5 14.6 (% of Net Sales) 16.6 18.9 13.4 10.8 16.2 16.4 Basic EPS (Rs) 5.4 7.5 5.8 5.3 8.9 10.2 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 5.3 7.4 5.6 5.2 8.9 10.2 % chg 12.8 39.1 (23.2) (8.0) 71.7 14.6 May 24, 2010 4
  • 5. TVTN I 4QFY2010 Result Update Balance Sheet (Standalone) Rs crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 29 29 29 29 30 30 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 226 264 293 319 366 422 Shareholders Funds 255 293 322 347 396 452 Minority Interest - - - - - - Total Loans 4 - - 35 20 10 Deferred Tax Liability 3 2 (2) (2) (2) (2) Total Liabilities 262 295 320 381 414 460 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 160 157 162 190 243 309 Less: Acc. Depreciation 73 79 97 119 143 172 Net Block 88 78 65 71 100 137 Capital Work-in-Progress 10 8 31 38 24 22 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 55 110 53 73 98 98 Current Assets 224 160 227 264 268 288 Cash 80 49 91 111 95 92 Loans & Advances 78 32 70 83 95 108 Other 65 80 65 71 78 89 Current liabilities 115 60 56 66 76 86 Net Current Assets 109 100 171 198 192 203 Mis. Exp. not written off 0 - - - - - Total Assets 262 295 320 381 414 460 Cash Flow Statement (Standalone) Rs crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 48 67 49 47 66 81 Depreciation 17 16 19 21 24 29 Change in Working Capital (1) (21) (27) (7) (10) (12) Interest / Dividend (Net) (6) (11) (11) (2) (6) (11) Direct taxes paid 17 23 15 16 13 20 Others (6) (1) (9) (7) (4) (4) Cash Flow from Operations 35 27 5 35 57 64 Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets (14) (6) (29) (35) (39) (64) Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (15) (52) 62 (20) (25) 0 Cash Flow from Investing (29) (58) 34 (55) (64) (64) Issue of Equity 0 0 (0) (0) 1 0 Inc./(Dec.) in loans (0) (4) 0 35 (15) (10) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 5 5 5 5 5 5 Interest / Dividend (Net) (7) (9) (9) (9) (10) (12) Cash Flow from Financing 2 (1) 3 39 (9) (3) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 8 (32) 42 20 (16) (3) Opening Cash balances 72 80 49 91 111 95 Closing Cash balances 80 49 91 111 95 92 May 24, 2010 5
  • 6. TVTN I 4QFY2010 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 19.0 11.2 21.7 11.5 10.5 9.3 P/CEPS 12.0 10.1 17.6 9.9 9.1 8.1 P/BV 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 Dividend yield (%) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 EV/Sales 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.1 EV/EBITDA 8.7 6.8 9.9 8.3 5.8 4.6 EV / Total Assets 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 5.4 7.5 5.8 5.3 8.9 10.2 EPS (fully diluted) 5.3 7.4 5.6 5.2 8.9 10.2 Cash EPS 8.3 10.3 9.1 9.0 13.0 15.2 DPS 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 Book Value 43.9 50.6 55.5 60.1 66.6 76.0 Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 18.5 20.1 9.9 10.9 14.1 15.8 Tax retention ratio 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 Asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 ROIC (Post-tax) 3.3 4.7 1.1 1.2 2.5 2.8 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) - - - - - - Leverage (x) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) Operating ROE 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.6 Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) 14.0 16.7 8.0 8.8 11.6 13.4 Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 27.6 35.3 15.8 16.6 22.1 23.9 RoE 13.0 16.0 10.9 9.2 14.3 14.3 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3 Inventory / Sales (days) - - - - - - Receivables (days) 126 126 95 91 87 87 Payables (days) 78 83 67 71 71 72 W.cap. cycle (ex-cash) (days) 56 81 117 112 108 109 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity (0.5) (0.5) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) Net debt to EBITDA (2.5) (2.5) (3.3) (2.9) (2.5) (2.0) Interest Coverage (EBIT / Interest) 286.1 495.9 180.5 4.4 11.6 29.3 May 24, 2010 6
  • 7. TVTN I 4QFY2010 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022- 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable source believed to be true, and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement TVTN 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies. Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 May 24, 2010 7