NIIT reported a 1.9% decline in consolidated net revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 but net income grew 40.2% due to a 400 basis point increase in EBITDA margins. While the company's school learning services and corporate learning services businesses saw revenue declines, its individual learning solutions segment grew revenues by 13.9% driven by growth in the IT and formal training management sectors. Strong margin expansion and improved performance in the individual learning segment helped boost profits despite currency headwinds.
PTC India reported a 5.4% year-over-year increase in top-line for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010, however bottom-line declined 10.7% due to a 26.5% reduction in other income and a 39.2% rise in taxes. While sales volumes grew 46.7% year-over-year, average realizations declined 28% due to falling power prices. Operating profit increased 120.1% on a 40 basis point expansion in margins. The analyst maintains a buy recommendation based on an expected positive impact from new trading margin regulations and a fair value estimate of Rs136 per share.
Infosys reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 that exceeded guidance and analyst estimates. Revenue grew 3.5% sequentially in rupees and 5.2% in US dollars, above the company's guidance range. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization margins contracted due to increased hiring and expenses, resulting in lower net profit growth of 2.2%. For fiscal year 2011, Infosys provided guidance for 15.9-18% revenue growth and 8.7-4.3% earnings per share growth in US dollars, but more muted 9-11% revenue growth and -2.6-1.4% earnings per share growth in rupees due
Reliance Communication's quarterly performance failed to meet expectations, with wireless revenue growing only 1.7% compared to the industry average. While the company surpassed 100 million subscribers, its broadband and global business segments saw declines. Profits grew 10.1% due to higher interest earned, but margins fell due to higher network and access costs. Going forward, profitability is expected to come under pressure from increased leverage for capex spending and acquiring 3G licenses.
For 4QFY2010, Motherson Sumi Systems reported revenues of Rs. 2,028 crore, up 140.5% over the previous year, exceeding expectations. Net profit increased 84.5% to Rs. 141.9 crore due to favorable currency movements and lower raw material costs. The company saw improved margins both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter due to higher operating efficiencies. On a standalone basis, revenue grew 69.9% while net profit increased 242.3% for the quarter.
Infotech Enterprises reported modest revenue growth of 2% for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010. Net profit increased 35% due to a 130% rise in other income and lower taxes. While revenue from the engineering and manufacturing segment grew 6%, the utilities, telecom, and government segment declined 6%. Looking forward, the company expects strong revenue growth driven by its order pipeline and improving business environment. The analyst maintains a 'Buy' rating with a target price implying 20% upside.
Reliance Industries reported lower-than-expected quarterly results, with profits impacted by lower-than-expected refining margins. Revenue grew 120.7% year-over-year primarily due to higher refining revenues, but margins were lower than estimates. While volume growth was strong, profitability was hurt by refining margins of $7.5/bbl compared to an estimated $8.5/bbl. The analyst maintains a buy rating due to expectations for margin improvement and inorganic growth opportunities.
Pantaloon Retail reported a 25.3% year-over-year growth in net sales to Rs. 2,057.6 crore for the third quarter of fiscal year 2010, below expectations of 30.2% growth. Same store sales growth was 13.9% and 13.2% for value and lifestyle retailing respectively. Operating margins remained flat at 10.5% while net profit grew 62.7% to Rs. 55.9 crore due to sales growth and unchanged interest costs. The analyst maintains an accumulate rating and target price of Rs. 469 based on retail space expansion, revival in consumer sentiment, and organizational restructuring.
McNally Bharat Engineering reported strong growth in 4QFY2010, with sales and profit growth of 19% and 142% respectively, ahead of estimates. This was driven by higher EBITDA margins and lower interest costs. For the full year, standalone sales grew 50% and EBITDA margins improved 80 basis points. Going forward, the company is well positioned for robust growth over the next few years due to its large order backlog of 2.6 times FY2010 revenue. The analyst maintains a 'Buy' recommendation with a revised target price of Rs486.
PTC India reported a 5.4% year-over-year increase in top-line for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010, however bottom-line declined 10.7% due to a 26.5% reduction in other income and a 39.2% rise in taxes. While sales volumes grew 46.7% year-over-year, average realizations declined 28% due to falling power prices. Operating profit increased 120.1% on a 40 basis point expansion in margins. The analyst maintains a buy recommendation based on an expected positive impact from new trading margin regulations and a fair value estimate of Rs136 per share.
Infosys reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 that exceeded guidance and analyst estimates. Revenue grew 3.5% sequentially in rupees and 5.2% in US dollars, above the company's guidance range. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization margins contracted due to increased hiring and expenses, resulting in lower net profit growth of 2.2%. For fiscal year 2011, Infosys provided guidance for 15.9-18% revenue growth and 8.7-4.3% earnings per share growth in US dollars, but more muted 9-11% revenue growth and -2.6-1.4% earnings per share growth in rupees due
Reliance Communication's quarterly performance failed to meet expectations, with wireless revenue growing only 1.7% compared to the industry average. While the company surpassed 100 million subscribers, its broadband and global business segments saw declines. Profits grew 10.1% due to higher interest earned, but margins fell due to higher network and access costs. Going forward, profitability is expected to come under pressure from increased leverage for capex spending and acquiring 3G licenses.
For 4QFY2010, Motherson Sumi Systems reported revenues of Rs. 2,028 crore, up 140.5% over the previous year, exceeding expectations. Net profit increased 84.5% to Rs. 141.9 crore due to favorable currency movements and lower raw material costs. The company saw improved margins both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter due to higher operating efficiencies. On a standalone basis, revenue grew 69.9% while net profit increased 242.3% for the quarter.
Infotech Enterprises reported modest revenue growth of 2% for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010. Net profit increased 35% due to a 130% rise in other income and lower taxes. While revenue from the engineering and manufacturing segment grew 6%, the utilities, telecom, and government segment declined 6%. Looking forward, the company expects strong revenue growth driven by its order pipeline and improving business environment. The analyst maintains a 'Buy' rating with a target price implying 20% upside.
Reliance Industries reported lower-than-expected quarterly results, with profits impacted by lower-than-expected refining margins. Revenue grew 120.7% year-over-year primarily due to higher refining revenues, but margins were lower than estimates. While volume growth was strong, profitability was hurt by refining margins of $7.5/bbl compared to an estimated $8.5/bbl. The analyst maintains a buy rating due to expectations for margin improvement and inorganic growth opportunities.
Pantaloon Retail reported a 25.3% year-over-year growth in net sales to Rs. 2,057.6 crore for the third quarter of fiscal year 2010, below expectations of 30.2% growth. Same store sales growth was 13.9% and 13.2% for value and lifestyle retailing respectively. Operating margins remained flat at 10.5% while net profit grew 62.7% to Rs. 55.9 crore due to sales growth and unchanged interest costs. The analyst maintains an accumulate rating and target price of Rs. 469 based on retail space expansion, revival in consumer sentiment, and organizational restructuring.
McNally Bharat Engineering reported strong growth in 4QFY2010, with sales and profit growth of 19% and 142% respectively, ahead of estimates. This was driven by higher EBITDA margins and lower interest costs. For the full year, standalone sales grew 50% and EBITDA margins improved 80 basis points. Going forward, the company is well positioned for robust growth over the next few years due to its large order backlog of 2.6 times FY2010 revenue. The analyst maintains a 'Buy' recommendation with a revised target price of Rs486.
TCS reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 that exceeded expectations. Revenue grew 1.1% over the previous quarter to Rs. 7,737 crore, driven by a 4% increase in volumes. However, currency fluctuations reduced realized revenue. Improved operating levers helped expand operating margins by 19 basis points sequentially and 368 basis points year-over-year. Strong other income and profit growth of 7.4% sequentially and 47.1% year-over-year exceeded forecasts. The company added over 10,000 employees in the quarter and closed 10 large deals.
Essel Propack's 5QFY2010 results were below expectations due to lower EBITDA margins, higher tax rates, and slow customer off-take. However, the company remained profitable due to cost-cutting and higher contributions from high-margin products and geographies. While sales declined 7% year-over-year, sales excluding medical products grew 10%. The European division significantly reduced losses. The analyst maintains a 'Buy' rating with a revised target price of Rs58.
Bharti Airtel reported a 2.4% year-over-year growth in net revenue for 4QFY2010 due to strong growth in its tower business and other businesses, although its mobile business revenue declined slightly. While the company's mobile subscriber base grew 35.9% year-over-year, revenue per user declined significantly due to competitive pressures. Higher selling, general and administrative expenses eroded operating margins, and combined with higher taxes and depreciation expenses, net income declined 8.2% year-over-year despite total minutes of usage growing by 12.8%. Going forward, the company expects continued strong subscriber addition but declining revenue per minute, which will impact profitability.
Jyoti Structures reported a 20.3% year-over-year growth in net profit to Rs. 25 crores for the fourth quarter of FY2010, slightly below estimates. Operating margins expanded more than expected by 235 basis points to 12.8% due to lower raw material costs. For the full year, net profit grew 15.3% to Rs. 92 crores on sales of Rs. 2,006 crores. The company maintained its buy recommendation with a target price of Rs. 215, citing the large investments planned for power transmission and the company's position as a top player in the industry.
Tech Mahindra reported a 4.2% quarter-over-quarter decline in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, which was attributed to adverse currency movements and slower client decision making. The company's profitability declined as well, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margins contracting 480 basis points and net income declining 36.4% compared to the previous quarter. However, revenue grew 1.9% year-over-year and management expects growth to be led by strong volume increases from large transformational deals in the pipeline. While the outlook remains positive, uncertainties around currency fluctuations and aggressive hiring could pressure margins going forward.
Balaji Telefilms posted disappointing quarterly results, with its top-line declining 32% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter due to a decrease in total programming hours as three shows went off air. While average programming rates increased sequentially, the company reported an operating loss for the quarter. Going forward, the company expects financial performance to remain under pressure due to low visibility in its programming slate and reduced programming hours.
Sadbhav Engineering reported quarterly revenues and profits that were below expectations. Higher depreciation and tax expenses related to the reversal of past tax benefits weighed on profits. The company has a large order backlog that provides visibility, but rich valuations lead the analyst to maintain a Neutral rating on the stock.
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510Angel Broking
Shoppers' Stop reported a 23.1% year-over-year growth in net sales to Rs388.8 crore for the fourth quarter of FY2010. Operating margins expanded substantially by 490 basis points to 6.2% due to cost rationalization measures. Net profit was Rs12.6 crore compared to a loss of Rs24.5 crore in the prior year quarter. For the full year FY2010, net sales grew 11.4% while operating margins improved 600 basis points and the company reported a profit versus a loss in the previous year. While growth prospects remain positive, the analyst recommends a Neutral rating given rich valuations.
India cements result update 4 qfy2010-060510Angel Broking
India Cements reported an 8.6% increase in revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 but margins declined. Revenue grew due to a 26.5% rise in cement sales volumes but realizations fell 19.4% due to excess capacity. Margins fell due to higher raw material and freight costs, causing net profit to decline 59.2% year-over-year. The analyst recommends buying the stock based on valuation and expects capacity expansion projects to be completed on schedule.
DLF reported 4QFY2010 results that were marginally below expectations due to higher interest and tax expenses. The merger with DAL and purchase of preference shares from SC Asia will increase net debt to 0.65-0.75x in 1QFY2011 from the current 0.53x. Strong volume guidance of 15-18mn sq ft is given for FY2011. The analyst maintains a Neutral rating and says the stock's performance depends on reducing debt levels through non-core asset sales and commercial segment recovery.
TCS reported strong financial results for the 1QFY2011 quarter that exceeded analyst estimates. Revenue grew 6.2% quarter-over-quarter to Rs. 8,217 crore, driven by an 8.1% increase in business volumes. Operating margins declined slightly due to wage increases and currency fluctuations impacting costs. Net profit declined 5.3% due to higher foreign exchange losses and taxes. The analyst maintains a positive outlook due to TCS's strong deal pipeline and hiring growth, but notes concerns around the European economic situation and currency movements. The stock is recommended as an "Accumulate" with a target price of Rs. 920.
1) Bharti Airtel reported a 17.4% year-over-year revenue growth to Rs. 12,231 crore in the first quarter of FY2011, aided by the acquisition of Zain Africa.
2) However, operating margins declined by 518 basis points to 36.1% due to higher sales, general and administrative expenses, network operating costs, and access costs.
3) Net profit declined by 32% year-over-year to Rs. 1,682 crore due to a net loss reported by the African operations, higher interest costs, depreciation, and taxes. Excluding Africa, net profit fell 23% due to margin pressure.
Crompton Greaves reported strong quarterly results with net profit growth of 39.9% year-over-year. While revenue growth was modest at 1.9%, the company significantly expanded operating margins. The strong performance was driven by growth in standalone business and improved margins in international operations despite a revenue decline. The company maintained its guidance for revenue and profit growth in fiscal year 2011.
Anant Raj Industries' (ARIL) 4QFY2010 results were below expectations due to a delay in launching a premium residential project. Rental income grew 10.6% but profit fell 53.9% quarter-over-quarter. The analyst downgraded earnings estimates for FY2011-FY2012 to account for the delayed project launch. However, ARIL has a strong development pipeline and the analyst maintains a Buy rating due to ARIL's low-cost land bank and strong balance sheet.
SpiceJet reported a 34.3% year-over-year increase in net sales for the fourth quarter of FY2010, but net sales were 12.8% lower than the previous quarter and slightly below estimates. Net profit was Rs. 27.5 crore compared to a loss in the previous year, but below estimates due to lower revenues and higher advertising costs. The analyst believes SpiceJet is well positioned to benefit from growing passenger demand and has plans to add four more aircraft in FY2011. The stock is recommended as an accumulate with a revised target price of Rs. 65, which would be a 10% upside from current levels.
Gammon India reported a 12.5% year-over-year decrease in top-line revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 due to losses from a joint venture. EBITDA margins also declined year-over-year due to these losses. As a result of lower revenue and margins, bottom-line profit saw a 24.6% year-over-year decrease. The analyst values Gammon India using a sum-of-the-parts approach and maintains a neutral outlook due to the company's policy of non-disclosure regarding recent Italian acquisitions that could materially impact financials.
MPL Result Update 4qfy2010-030510-finalAngel Broking
Madhucon Projects reported disappointing results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 that were below expectations. While revenue grew robustly due to higher subcontracting in the power segment, operating margins hit a historical low of 6.4% due to the heavy subcontracting. The analyst maintains a "Buy" rating but lowers the target price to Rs. 190 per share based on revised estimates factoring in lower margins and a higher holding company discount applied to the valuation of Madhucon Infra subsidiary. Near-term revenue visibility comes from existing power segment orders but margins are expected to remain under pressure from ongoing subcontracting.
For the fourth quarter of 2010, TVS Motor reported net sales of Rs. 1,216 crore, up 33.7% year-over-year due to a 27.8% increase in volumes and 8.7% increase in realizations. Operating margins expanded 118 basis points due to a 416 basis point drop in raw material costs. Net profit was Rs. 20.3 crore, up 38.9% year-over-year. Going forward, TVS Motor expects to improve market share following new product launches but faces competitive pressures. The analyst maintains a neutral rating due to recent stock price appreciation and TVS Motor's inconsistent performance history.
The summary is:
1) The Nifty futures open interest increased slightly while the Minifity futures open interest decreased slightly as the market closed.
2) The Nifty October future closed at a premium while the November future also closed at a premium.
3) The PCR-OI ratio increased slightly.
4) Implied volatility of at-the-money options decreased.
TVS Motor reported a 41% increase in net sales for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011 compared to the same period last year, driven by a 33% rise in total volumes. However, operating profit was slightly below expectations due to lower-than-expected operating margins. While earnings grew substantially year-over-year due to margin expansion and lower taxes, the report maintains a neutral rating on the stock given its recent price increase. Future performance will depend on consistent volume growth, improved market share, and higher margins.
The key Indian stock market indices saw modest gains of around 0.8% on positive cues from European and US markets recovering from early losses. Several mid-cap stocks such as United Breweries and United Breweries Holdings gained 5-20% while some like Gee Kay Finance and J&K Bank declined 3-5%. The document reviews the performance of key companies such as ACC, Ambuja Cements and Bajaj Auto reporting mixed quarterly results with ACC reporting a decline in profits on higher costs while Ambuja Cements and Bajaj Auto saw profit growth.
Graphite India reported a 66% year-over-year increase in 4QFY2010 sales, in line with estimates. Full year FY2010 sales fell 10.1%, lower than expected, due to lower production at the company's German facility. However, operating margins increased to a strong 29.4% for FY2010 due to higher realizations. Going forward, the company is well positioned for growth due to increasing demand from the steel industry and its capacity expansion plans. The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation on the stock based on its attractive valuation and growth outlook.
TCS reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 that exceeded expectations. Revenue grew 1.1% over the previous quarter to Rs. 7,737 crore, driven by a 4% increase in volumes. However, currency fluctuations reduced realized revenue. Improved operating levers helped expand operating margins by 19 basis points sequentially and 368 basis points year-over-year. Strong other income and profit growth of 7.4% sequentially and 47.1% year-over-year exceeded forecasts. The company added over 10,000 employees in the quarter and closed 10 large deals.
Essel Propack's 5QFY2010 results were below expectations due to lower EBITDA margins, higher tax rates, and slow customer off-take. However, the company remained profitable due to cost-cutting and higher contributions from high-margin products and geographies. While sales declined 7% year-over-year, sales excluding medical products grew 10%. The European division significantly reduced losses. The analyst maintains a 'Buy' rating with a revised target price of Rs58.
Bharti Airtel reported a 2.4% year-over-year growth in net revenue for 4QFY2010 due to strong growth in its tower business and other businesses, although its mobile business revenue declined slightly. While the company's mobile subscriber base grew 35.9% year-over-year, revenue per user declined significantly due to competitive pressures. Higher selling, general and administrative expenses eroded operating margins, and combined with higher taxes and depreciation expenses, net income declined 8.2% year-over-year despite total minutes of usage growing by 12.8%. Going forward, the company expects continued strong subscriber addition but declining revenue per minute, which will impact profitability.
Jyoti Structures reported a 20.3% year-over-year growth in net profit to Rs. 25 crores for the fourth quarter of FY2010, slightly below estimates. Operating margins expanded more than expected by 235 basis points to 12.8% due to lower raw material costs. For the full year, net profit grew 15.3% to Rs. 92 crores on sales of Rs. 2,006 crores. The company maintained its buy recommendation with a target price of Rs. 215, citing the large investments planned for power transmission and the company's position as a top player in the industry.
Tech Mahindra reported a 4.2% quarter-over-quarter decline in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, which was attributed to adverse currency movements and slower client decision making. The company's profitability declined as well, with earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margins contracting 480 basis points and net income declining 36.4% compared to the previous quarter. However, revenue grew 1.9% year-over-year and management expects growth to be led by strong volume increases from large transformational deals in the pipeline. While the outlook remains positive, uncertainties around currency fluctuations and aggressive hiring could pressure margins going forward.
Balaji Telefilms posted disappointing quarterly results, with its top-line declining 32% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter due to a decrease in total programming hours as three shows went off air. While average programming rates increased sequentially, the company reported an operating loss for the quarter. Going forward, the company expects financial performance to remain under pressure due to low visibility in its programming slate and reduced programming hours.
Sadbhav Engineering reported quarterly revenues and profits that were below expectations. Higher depreciation and tax expenses related to the reversal of past tax benefits weighed on profits. The company has a large order backlog that provides visibility, but rich valuations lead the analyst to maintain a Neutral rating on the stock.
Shoppers stop result update 4 qfy2010 040510Angel Broking
Shoppers' Stop reported a 23.1% year-over-year growth in net sales to Rs388.8 crore for the fourth quarter of FY2010. Operating margins expanded substantially by 490 basis points to 6.2% due to cost rationalization measures. Net profit was Rs12.6 crore compared to a loss of Rs24.5 crore in the prior year quarter. For the full year FY2010, net sales grew 11.4% while operating margins improved 600 basis points and the company reported a profit versus a loss in the previous year. While growth prospects remain positive, the analyst recommends a Neutral rating given rich valuations.
India cements result update 4 qfy2010-060510Angel Broking
India Cements reported an 8.6% increase in revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 but margins declined. Revenue grew due to a 26.5% rise in cement sales volumes but realizations fell 19.4% due to excess capacity. Margins fell due to higher raw material and freight costs, causing net profit to decline 59.2% year-over-year. The analyst recommends buying the stock based on valuation and expects capacity expansion projects to be completed on schedule.
DLF reported 4QFY2010 results that were marginally below expectations due to higher interest and tax expenses. The merger with DAL and purchase of preference shares from SC Asia will increase net debt to 0.65-0.75x in 1QFY2011 from the current 0.53x. Strong volume guidance of 15-18mn sq ft is given for FY2011. The analyst maintains a Neutral rating and says the stock's performance depends on reducing debt levels through non-core asset sales and commercial segment recovery.
TCS reported strong financial results for the 1QFY2011 quarter that exceeded analyst estimates. Revenue grew 6.2% quarter-over-quarter to Rs. 8,217 crore, driven by an 8.1% increase in business volumes. Operating margins declined slightly due to wage increases and currency fluctuations impacting costs. Net profit declined 5.3% due to higher foreign exchange losses and taxes. The analyst maintains a positive outlook due to TCS's strong deal pipeline and hiring growth, but notes concerns around the European economic situation and currency movements. The stock is recommended as an "Accumulate" with a target price of Rs. 920.
1) Bharti Airtel reported a 17.4% year-over-year revenue growth to Rs. 12,231 crore in the first quarter of FY2011, aided by the acquisition of Zain Africa.
2) However, operating margins declined by 518 basis points to 36.1% due to higher sales, general and administrative expenses, network operating costs, and access costs.
3) Net profit declined by 32% year-over-year to Rs. 1,682 crore due to a net loss reported by the African operations, higher interest costs, depreciation, and taxes. Excluding Africa, net profit fell 23% due to margin pressure.
Crompton Greaves reported strong quarterly results with net profit growth of 39.9% year-over-year. While revenue growth was modest at 1.9%, the company significantly expanded operating margins. The strong performance was driven by growth in standalone business and improved margins in international operations despite a revenue decline. The company maintained its guidance for revenue and profit growth in fiscal year 2011.
Anant Raj Industries' (ARIL) 4QFY2010 results were below expectations due to a delay in launching a premium residential project. Rental income grew 10.6% but profit fell 53.9% quarter-over-quarter. The analyst downgraded earnings estimates for FY2011-FY2012 to account for the delayed project launch. However, ARIL has a strong development pipeline and the analyst maintains a Buy rating due to ARIL's low-cost land bank and strong balance sheet.
SpiceJet reported a 34.3% year-over-year increase in net sales for the fourth quarter of FY2010, but net sales were 12.8% lower than the previous quarter and slightly below estimates. Net profit was Rs. 27.5 crore compared to a loss in the previous year, but below estimates due to lower revenues and higher advertising costs. The analyst believes SpiceJet is well positioned to benefit from growing passenger demand and has plans to add four more aircraft in FY2011. The stock is recommended as an accumulate with a revised target price of Rs. 65, which would be a 10% upside from current levels.
Gammon India reported a 12.5% year-over-year decrease in top-line revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 due to losses from a joint venture. EBITDA margins also declined year-over-year due to these losses. As a result of lower revenue and margins, bottom-line profit saw a 24.6% year-over-year decrease. The analyst values Gammon India using a sum-of-the-parts approach and maintains a neutral outlook due to the company's policy of non-disclosure regarding recent Italian acquisitions that could materially impact financials.
MPL Result Update 4qfy2010-030510-finalAngel Broking
Madhucon Projects reported disappointing results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 that were below expectations. While revenue grew robustly due to higher subcontracting in the power segment, operating margins hit a historical low of 6.4% due to the heavy subcontracting. The analyst maintains a "Buy" rating but lowers the target price to Rs. 190 per share based on revised estimates factoring in lower margins and a higher holding company discount applied to the valuation of Madhucon Infra subsidiary. Near-term revenue visibility comes from existing power segment orders but margins are expected to remain under pressure from ongoing subcontracting.
For the fourth quarter of 2010, TVS Motor reported net sales of Rs. 1,216 crore, up 33.7% year-over-year due to a 27.8% increase in volumes and 8.7% increase in realizations. Operating margins expanded 118 basis points due to a 416 basis point drop in raw material costs. Net profit was Rs. 20.3 crore, up 38.9% year-over-year. Going forward, TVS Motor expects to improve market share following new product launches but faces competitive pressures. The analyst maintains a neutral rating due to recent stock price appreciation and TVS Motor's inconsistent performance history.
The summary is:
1) The Nifty futures open interest increased slightly while the Minifity futures open interest decreased slightly as the market closed.
2) The Nifty October future closed at a premium while the November future also closed at a premium.
3) The PCR-OI ratio increased slightly.
4) Implied volatility of at-the-money options decreased.
TVS Motor reported a 41% increase in net sales for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011 compared to the same period last year, driven by a 33% rise in total volumes. However, operating profit was slightly below expectations due to lower-than-expected operating margins. While earnings grew substantially year-over-year due to margin expansion and lower taxes, the report maintains a neutral rating on the stock given its recent price increase. Future performance will depend on consistent volume growth, improved market share, and higher margins.
The key Indian stock market indices saw modest gains of around 0.8% on positive cues from European and US markets recovering from early losses. Several mid-cap stocks such as United Breweries and United Breweries Holdings gained 5-20% while some like Gee Kay Finance and J&K Bank declined 3-5%. The document reviews the performance of key companies such as ACC, Ambuja Cements and Bajaj Auto reporting mixed quarterly results with ACC reporting a decline in profits on higher costs while Ambuja Cements and Bajaj Auto saw profit growth.
Graphite India reported a 66% year-over-year increase in 4QFY2010 sales, in line with estimates. Full year FY2010 sales fell 10.1%, lower than expected, due to lower production at the company's German facility. However, operating margins increased to a strong 29.4% for FY2010 due to higher realizations. Going forward, the company is well positioned for growth due to increasing demand from the steel industry and its capacity expansion plans. The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation on the stock based on its attractive valuation and growth outlook.
The document provides a daily market summary of key Indian stock market indices and sector performances. It summarizes that indices opened flat but traded in a narrow range, though they briefly breached yesterday's lows, they recovered and closed above 5-day moving averages. It notes to trade cautiously as momentum indicators show negative crossover. It also lists top gainers and losers, pivot points for various stocks, and provides +ve and -ve bias calls on select stocks.
- The key Indian indices (Sensex and Nifty) declined by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively, tracking subdued European markets and concerns over rising food inflation in India.
- Banking, realty and oil & gas stocks led the declines, while HUL, ONGC and ITC gained 1-2%. Midcap stocks like Dalmia Cement rose 5-9% while losses were seen in Blue Star and Indusind Bank.
- The article provides analysis on recent company news and IPOs, and recommends a neutral view on the Ashoka Buildcon IPO and subscribe view on the Tecpro Systems IPO.
Derivatives Report - September 24, 2010Angel Broking
The document provides a derivative report on the Indian market from September 24, 2010. It summarizes that the Nifty and Minifity futures open interest decreased while the Nifty September future closed at a premium. The total derivatives market open interest is Rs. 2,12,938 crores. A few stocks have positive cost of carry including APOLLOTYRE, DABUR and JINDALSWHL. The report also provides analysis on specific stocks, option strategies and FIIs trading activity.
The RBI increased key rates by 25 basis points each, which was in line with expectations. Indian stock markets gained slightly for the week despite sessions of high volatility. The BSE Bankex index outperformed others, rising 4.9% led by gains in SBI and Axis Bank. Axis Bank reported strong profit growth ahead of estimates driven by lower loan loss provisions.
Reliance Industries reported lower-than-expected earnings for 1QFY2011. While net operating income rose 86.7% year-over-year due to growth in refining revenues, EBITDA was below estimates due to lower petrochemical sales volumes and refining margins. Net profit grew 32.3% year-over-year, meeting estimates. The analyst maintains a 'Buy' rating based on the company's growth outlook and believes it is undervalued relative to its peers.
The document provides a technical market summary for November 10, 2010. It summarizes that day's performance of key indices like Nifty and Sensex, lists the top gainers and losers, and reviews sector performances. It also analyzes support and resistance levels for the indices and predicts the possibility of the indices reaching new highs if they surpass certain levels. Pivot point values are given for various stocks. Stocks with positive and negative bias are highlighted. The report is from Angel Broking and is intended for private circulation only.
The document discusses the performance of India's Media and Entertainment industry in 2009 and the outlook for 2010. It notes that the industry grew only 1.5% in 2009 due to the economic slowdown but is expected to recover in 2010 with 11.1% growth. Television was the strongest segment in 2009 while films fared the worst. Overall, the industry is projected to have a compound annual growth rate of 13.3% through 2014 to reach a size of Rs. 1,094 billion. Advertising spending was flat in 2009 but also expected to rebound with 12.1% growth in 2010. Low media spending in India indicates significant potential for future expansion.
- Sun TV Network (STNL) reported strong revenue and earnings growth in 2QFY2011, with revenues up 32.6% year-over-year led by increases in advertising, broadcasting fees, and subscription revenues.
- Operating margins expanded by 221 basis points driven by revenue gains and cost rationalization. However, earnings growth of 28.2% was impacted by a 59% jump in depreciation expenses.
- The report revises STNL's FY2011 and FY2012 estimates and maintains an "Accumulate" recommendation on expectations of continued revenue growth from advertising, broadcasting fees, and subscription services.
Derivatives Report - September 14, 2010Angel Broking
The document provides a summary of derivative market activity in India for September 14, 2010. Open interest in Nifty futures increased by 2.74% while open interest in Mini Nifty futures rose by 10.98% as the market closed at 5760. The Nifty September future closed at a premium while the October future closed at a higher premium. Put-call ratios increased and implied volatility of at-the-money options also increased. Several stocks saw increases and decreases in open interest levels. The document also provides analysis of option strategies, volatility levels, and open derivative positions.
Bharti Airtel is well positioned for strong growth over the next few years. Total minutes of usage are expected to grow at 20% annually through FY2014 as tele-density and usage per subscriber remain well below developed markets. Competition is also expected to moderate as costs for new entrants are high. Bharti trades at an attractive valuation of 12x FY2012 earnings compared to its historical average of 26x and the Sensex P/E of 14.5x, despite higher returns. The acquisition of African and Bangladesh assets is also expected to be accretive. Overall, Bharti Airtel provides exposure to the growing Indian telecom sector at a reasonable valuation.
Northern region cement despatches grew by an impressive 14.4% yoy in May 2010. The growth in all-India despatches was 8.1% yoy, lower than the previous year due to lower demand from real estate and infrastructure segments. The southern region reported a modest 8.2% growth, impacting the overall capacity utilization which plunged 750bps to 82%. Cement prices declined across India in May, with the southern region seeing the largest corrections of Rs20-45 per bag. Jaiprakash Associates and India Cements were the top performing companies, with volumes growing 54% and 11.4% yoy respectively.
ICICI Bank's net profit increased by 35.2% year-over-year, in line with estimates. Key positives were a further improvement in CASA ratio to 41.7% and declining retail loan slippages for four consecutive quarters. However, balance sheet and network growth were lower than expected. With a capital adequacy of 19.4%, the bank is well-positioned for growth, though branch expansion plans seem slower than anticipated. The stock remains attractive at current levels, leading analysts to maintain a 'Buy' rating.
1) Aventis Pharma reported lower-than-estimated quarterly results, with net sales growth of 8.6% year-over-year to Rs. 271.5 crores, driven by domestic sales growth of 15.3% but offset by an 11.9% decline in exports.
2) Operating margins contracted 515 basis points year-over-year to 16%, below expectations, due to lower gross margins and higher expenses.
3) Net profit declined 10% year-over-year to Rs. 42.4 crores, also below estimates, resulting from lower operating margins.
4) While Aventis has a strong domestic presence, analysts recommend selling the stock
The document provides a summary of derivative market activity in India for October 20, 2010. It notes that open interest for Nifty futures decreased while open interest for Minifity futures increased. The Nifty October future closed at a premium while the November future also closed at a premium. Implied volatility of at-the-money options increased. Several stocks saw increases and decreases in open interest. The document also provides analysis of bullish and bearish option strategies and reviews open derivative positions.
Sadbhav Engineering reported quarterly revenues and profits that were below expectations. Higher depreciation and tax expenses related to the reversal of past tax benefits weighed on profits. The company has a large order backlog that provides visibility, but rich valuations lead the analyst to maintain a Neutral rating on the stock.
3i Infotech reported subdued quarterly results with a 1.4% increase in revenue. EBITDA margins declined slightly despite a 10% wage hike. The bottom line declined from the previous quarter due to higher costs and taxes, though it improved year-over-year. The company maintained its full-year revenue guidance, expecting growth of 11-14% driven by a strong order backlog. While initiatives to boost integrated offerings are expected to drive long-term growth, margins may be pressured in the near-term from operational investments. The report maintains a Buy recommendation based on a revised target price implying a 6x forward P/E multiple.
Infosys reported a 4.3% quarter-over-quarter growth in revenues to Rs. 6,198 crore for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, backed by a 7.6% growth in volumes. However, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margins fell by 1.8% due to annual wage hikes. Infosys revised its fiscal year 2011 revenue growth guidance upwards from 16-18% to 19-21% in rupee terms and maintained its earnings per share growth guidance of 7.2-11.5%. The growth was broad-based across services and verticals led by the banking, financial services and insurance sector.
1) HCC reported a 13.6% increase in net sales to Rs.995.4 crore for 1QFY2011, in line with Angel Research estimates. Operating profit grew 9.3% to Rs.125.8 crore.
2) Net profit increased 55.6% to Rs.28.3 crore, marginally ahead of estimates due to higher operating margins and lower taxes.
3) Angel Research maintains a Neutral view on HCC, valuing it at Rs.126/share on an SOTP basis, with limited upside from current levels given its valuation of 36.5x FY2012 EPS.
The document provides an analysis of Consolidated Construction Consortium's (CCCL) 4QFY2010 results and outlook. Some key points:
- CCCL reported 33.2% revenue growth for 4QFY2010 inline with estimates, but order inflow for FY2010 was below expectations at Rs2,166cr.
- The company's current order book stands at Rs3,392cr, providing 1.4x revenue visibility for FY2011, which is lower than peers.
- The analyst expects 19.2% revenue CAGR for CCCL over FY2010-2012 on the back of its order book and recovery in private capex.
- C
Sadbhav Engineering reported a 42% increase in net sales and 83.8% increase in net profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011 compared to the previous year. The company saw robust growth due to a rise in order book over the last few quarters and has guided for over 35% revenue growth over the next 12 months. However, the analyst downgraded the stock to Reduce due to rich valuations and concerns over potential execution challenges due to a record high order backlog.
SAIL's 4QFY2010 results were in line with estimates. Revenues grew 1.8% to Rs11,955cr due to higher sales volumes and average realization. EBITDA margins expanded significantly to 25.9% due to lower raw material costs and consumption, leading to a 40.2% rise in net income to Rs2,085cr. While demand is expected to remain strong, the company maintains a neutral outlook given rich valuations and plans for a public offering limiting further upside.
Orchid Chemicals reported subdued 4QFY2010 results with net sales of Rs285.7cr, up 19.1% but below expectations. The company reported an operating loss of Rs407.2cr due to one-time write-offs of Rs390cr. Excluding write-offs, the operating loss was Rs17.2cr. The company announced a special dividend of Rs10/share. For FY2011, Orchid expects net sales of Rs1,472cr, an 84% increase year-over-year, and operating margins of 20%. However, the brokerage expects lower sales and margins for FY2011 compared to the company's guidance and maintains a Neutral rating on
Infosys reported strong revenue growth of 12.1% quarter-over-quarter for 2QFY2011, driven by persistent volume growth of 7.2% and better business mix. Operating margins rebounded to 33.3% from cost efficiencies. The company revised its FY2011 revenue guidance upwards to 24-25% growth and EPS growth to 10.4-12.2% in US dollar terms. Broad-based growth was seen across industries like retail, BFSI, and manufacturing as well as geographies like Europe and the US. Hiring continued to be strong though utilisation improved.
Pratibha ind Result Update 4 qfy2010-110510Angel Broking
Pratibha Industries reported financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010 that were in line with expectations. Operating margins improved significantly due to a reduction in raw material costs, boosting the bottom line. However, the company paid taxes at the marginal rate rather than claiming tax benefits. While the results were decent, the analyst maintains a neutral outlook on the stock given that positives are already reflected in the price.
1) Colgate reported a 13.4% year-over-year growth in top-line to Rs. 516 crores, in line with estimates. Volume growth was steady at 11%.
2) Earnings grew 39.6% year-over-year to Rs. 114.4 crores, significantly beating estimates. This was driven by a 638 basis point expansion in operating margins to 24.1% due to higher gross margins.
3) The analyst maintains an 'Accumulate' rating and revised target price of Rs. 752, expecting the company to report a 15.1% CAGR in revenue through FY2012, while margins remain stable.
Indoco Remedies reported financial results for 4QFY2010 that were above estimates. Net sales grew 28% year-over-year to Rs108.9 crore, driven by 24.5% domestic growth and 34.2% export growth. Operating margins of 10.1% were below expectations due to higher raw material costs. Net profit doubled to Rs8.2 crore. For FY2011, the company plans Rs95 crore in capital expenditures and expects sales growth of 14-28% and operating margins of 18-19%. The analyst maintains a Buy rating with a target price of Rs487.
Wipro reported financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, with revenues growing 3.1% over the previous quarter and 12.6% over the same quarter last year. Operating profit margins expanded due to effective currency hedges, and net income grew 9% over the previous quarter and 30.5% over the first quarter of fiscal year 2010. The company's performance was driven by strong volume growth in IT services revenues, with new client additions and large deal wins during the quarter. The analyst maintained an "Accumulate" rating on Wipro stock, with a target price representing 13% upside.
Wipro reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010, with revenue growth of 1.9% quarter-over-quarter and 6.7% year-over-year in rupee terms. Revenue growth was broad-based across business segments and verticals, aided by improved client spending and a recovery in challenged industries. Margins declined slightly due to wage increases and higher spending, but the bottom line grew due to robust other income and lower depreciation costs. Looking ahead, Wipro expects continued revenue growth driven by volume increases and large deals, though margins may be impacted in the current quarter by wage hikes and performance bonuses.
Wipro reported strong financial results for the 4th quarter of fiscal year 2010, with revenue from IT services growing 3.5% quarter-over-quarter and 11% year-over-year. While revenue growth was slightly lower in rupee terms due to currency fluctuations, the company saw broad-based growth across services and verticals driven by improved client spending. Going forward, the company expects to see continued volume-led growth supported by focus on non-linear initiatives. The analyst maintains an "Accumulate" rating on Wipro stock with a target price representing an upside of 13%.
Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) reported a 10.8% increase in net sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010, in line with estimates. However, operating margins of 11.3% disappointed due to four projects not reaching revenue recognition thresholds. While interest costs decreased by 31.8% year-over-year, net profit declined 16.3% due to lower operating margins. The analyst maintains a neutral outlook on HCC stock due to trimmed earnings estimates for fiscal years 2011-2012 but sees potential upside from the planned listing of HCC's Lavasa subsidiary.
Educomp reported strong quarterly performance in 4QFY2010, with 47.1% revenue growth and 9.1% profit growth. However, excluding one-time items, revenue fell 3% while profit rose 90%. The company expects 25-30% revenue growth and profit between Rs330-350cr for FY2011. Educomp's school learning solutions drove growth but newer initiatives face investment periods. While margins expanded on cost reductions, profit growth was restricted by higher costs and taxes. The company maintains aggressive expansion plans in K-12, online, and supplementary education segments.
Ashok Leyland reported a 141.3% year-over-year growth in net sales to Rs2,939 crore for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2010, in line with expectations. Net profit grew 317.6% year-over-year to Rs222.7 crore, higher than expected due to better operating margins and a change in depreciation policy. Operating margins increased 345 basis points due to price hikes, lower raw material prices, and cost reduction efforts. The company expects commercial vehicle industry volumes to grow 15-18% in fiscal year 2011.
Tech Mahindra Result Update 4qfy2010-040510Angel Broking
Tech Mahindra reported better-than-expected 4QFY2010 results, with revenue growth of -0.3% quarter-over-quarter. Revenue growth in constant currency was 4% supported by strong volume growth from their top account BT. EBITDA margins remained flat at 23.6% despite rupee appreciation and profit after tax grew 31.3% due to lower interest costs and foreign exchange gains. The analyst maintains a Buy recommendation based on expected revenue and profit growth over the next two years.
Hindalco's subsidiary Novelis reported strong results for 4QFY2010. Top-line grew 24.8% year-over-year to US $2.42 billion as sales volumes increased 16.1% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA spiked 336% year-over-year to US $231 million. Novelis is focusing on increasing capacity in emerging markets, announcing plans to expand capacity in Brazil by 50% at a cost of US $300 million. Following the expiration of Novelis's metal price ceiling contracts and expected benefits from price increases and cost savings, the report maintains a "Buy" recommendation on Hindalco.
The Indian markets are expected to open higher, tracking gains in most Asian markets. Spain has asked for a bailout of up to €100 billion for its banking system. Chinese exports grew more than expected in May. In India, shares extended gains for a fifth session despite weak global cues as major central banks held off on additional stimulus. The key support and resistance levels for the Nifty are 5,023 and 5,114 respectively. L&T has bagged orders worth Rs. 483 crore to build commercial vessels in Qatar. Vedanta Resources has acquired a 24.5% stake in Raykal Aluminium for Rs. 201 crore.
Axis Bank reported a 27.0% year-over-year increase in net profit to Rs. 942 crore for the first quarter of fiscal year 2012, in line with analyst estimates. Business growth momentum slowed as advances declined 7.4% quarter-over-quarter and deposits fell 3.0% quarter-over-quarter, moderating the bank's cash-deposit ratio to 40.5% from 41.1% last quarter. However, asset quality remained healthy with slippage ratio declining to 0.8% and gross and net NPA ratios stable.
1) For 1QFY2012, Electrosteel Castings reported 16.4% sales growth but margins declined due to higher raw material costs. EBITDA fell 18.2% and net profit declined 7.2%.
2) While sales volumes grew, costs increased more due to a rise in raw material costs as a percentage of sales.
3) The company maintains a buy recommendation due to initiatives in steelmaking and backward integration that should lower costs starting in FY2013 and valuation remains attractive.
1) For 1QFY2012, Persistent Systems reported revenues of ₹224 crore, up 5.2% over the previous quarter and 23.6% over the same period last year.
2) EBITDA was ₹40 crore, up 5.3% over the previous quarter but margins declined.
3) PAT was ₹28 crore, down 16.8% over the previous quarter due to higher taxes.
4) Management maintained revenue guidance of 29% growth for FY2012 and expects PAT to remain flat despite higher tax rates.
HT Media reported a 22.7% year-over-year increase in revenue to ₹494 crore for the first quarter of FY2012. Revenue was also up 5.8% quarter-over-quarter. Advertising revenue grew 17% year-over-year, with 18% growth in English and 15% growth in Hindi. Operating profit rose 11.8% year-over-year to ₹87.8 crore due to higher other income and lower tax rates, although operating margins contracted by 174 basis points. The company maintained its Accumulate rating based on expectations of continued revenue growth and margin expansion.
The summary is:
1) The derivative report analyzes the performance of the Nifty futures, options, and key stocks from the previous trading session on July 18, 2011.
2) It provides details on changes in open interest, premium levels, volatility, and turnover for various derivatives contracts.
3) Trading strategies and technical analysis is also given for some stocks along with risk-reward profiles of sample spreads trades for the Nifty.
The market ended lower, with the Sensex and Nifty closing down 0.3%. Mid- and small-cap indices closed higher. Select heavyweights like Hindalco Industries and BHEL gained 1-3%, while TCS and Tata Motors lost 1-2%. In corporate news, Motherson Sumi Systems agreed to acquire an 80% stake in Peguform for €141.5 million. HDFC Bank, Cadila Healthcare, Crompton Greaves, and Ashok Leyland are scheduled to announce their quarterly results. The trend for the day will be decided by whether Nifty trades above or below the levels of 18,533/5,572 in early trade.
- GSM subscriber additions in India continued their declining trend in June 2011, with net additions of 9.6 million, down 10% from the previous month.
- All major operators except BSNL reported a drop in subscriber additions. Bharti and Vodafone each added 2.1 million subscribers.
- The total GSM subscriber base reached 598.8 million in June 2011, with Bharti, Vodafone, Idea and BSNL maintaining their major market shares.
The document provides a technical analysis of the Indian stock market indices Sensex and Nifty for the week of July 16, 2011. It summarizes that the indices declined over 1.5% for the week and are currently trading in a range between 18,326/5496 on the downside and 19,132/5740 on the upside. It notes that a break above or below this range would dictate the direction of the upcoming trend. The analysis also lists pivot levels for 50 Nifty stocks to watch in the coming week.
The document provides a summary of derivative market activity in India for July 18, 2011. Key points include:
- Nifty futures open interest increased 0.67% while Mini Nifty increased 3.48% as the market closed at 5581.10
- Nifty July futures closed at a premium of 5.85 points and August futures at a premium of 22.60 points
- Implied volatility of at-the-money options decreased from 18% to 17.3%
- Total open interest in the market was Rs. 135,158 crore with stock futures open interest at Rs. 34,675 crore.
The indices opened flat but traded choppily throughout the day. Metal, auto and realty stocks declined while IT stocks gained. The indices are currently trading in a range between 18,326-18,810/5496-5653 on the downside and 19,132-19,094/5740-5700 on the upside. A break above these resistance levels could lead to further gains while a break below support could result in losses extending to 17,805-17,950/5350-5400. Pivot levels for 50 Nifty stocks are provided.
- The key Indian stock indices declined slightly, with the Sensex and Nifty closing down 0.3%.
- GSM subscriber additions in India continued their declining trend in June across most major operators such as Idea, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone. Total GSM subscriber addition was 9.6 million, down 10% from the previous month.
- Tata Motors reported flat annual global sales growth in June 2011 compared to the previous year.
- South Indian Bank reported a 41.2% year-over-year increase in net profit to Rs. 82 crores for the first quarter of fiscal year 2012, slightly below analyst estimates.
- Business growth remained strong, with advances growth of 31.2% and deposits growth of 35.5% year-over-year. However, net interest margins compressed by 29 basis points sequentially to 2.8% due to a sharp rise in the bank's cost of deposits.
- Non-interest income was boosted by treasury gains, but fee income growth was modest. Asset quality was stable with gross and net NPAs rising marginally, and provision coverage at a comfortable 73.1%.
Bajaj Auto reported marginally lower-than-expected results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2012, with net sales growth of 22.8% year-over-year driven by a 17.7% increase in volumes. However, operating margins contracted by 145 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 19.1% due to a 150 basis point increase in raw material costs. As a result, net profit grew by 20.5% year-over-year to ₹711 crore, which was slightly below analyst estimates. Going forward, the analyst expects further margin pressure and has revised downward its earnings estimates for fiscal years 2012 and 2013 to factor in higher raw material costs and changes to export incentives.
1) Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reported strong results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2012, outperforming expectations with revenue growth of 6.3% over the previous quarter and 31.4% over the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.
2) A key highlight was 7.4% quarter-over-quarter growth in business volumes. While profit margins declined due to wage hikes, net profit remained flat due to foreign exchange gains.
3) Management maintained a positive outlook, highlighting strong demand environment and deal pipeline, and expects pricing increases later in the fiscal year.
The document summarizes the Indian stock market outlook and performance on July 15, 2011. It reports that domestic indices closed with modest gains of 0.1-0.4%, while global indices declined. Wholesale price inflation in India rose to 9.44% in June 2011, above estimates and persisting above 9% for seven months, driven by increases in primary articles and fuel costs. Key benchmark levels are identified for determining if the market may continue rallying or correct in the near term.
The summary is:
1) The derivative report analyzes the movement in Nifty futures, options, and individual stocks between July 14-15, 2011.
2) Nifty futures open interest decreased while mini Nifty open interest increased as the market closed at 5599.80.
3) Implied volatility of at-the-money options increased from 17.6% to 18%.
The Sensex and Nifty indices opened lower and traded with volatility, closing marginally lower. On the sectoral front, Realty, Banks and Healthcare gained while IT and FMCG fell. The advance-decline ratio favored advancing stocks. On the daily chart, prices tested but did not close above the downward gap area of 18,679-18,589/5,601-5,580 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 18,735/5,633, while 18,449/5,541 is crucial support.
1) Infosys reported modest revenue growth of 3.2% qoq for 1QFY2012. EBITDA and margins declined due to wage hikes.
2) Guidance for 2QFY2012 revenue growth was lower than expected at 3.5-5% qoq. Annual revenue growth guidance was unchanged.
3) The analyst revised EPS estimates down and cut the target price to INR 3,200 due to macro concerns and muted guidance.
This document summarizes a derivative report from India Research dated July 13, 2011. Some key points:
- The Nifty futures open interest increased 0.51% while Minifty futures open interest rose 8.2% as the market closed at 5526.15.
- Implied volatility of at-the-money options increased from 18% to 19.75%. PCR-OI decreased from 1.20 to 1.15.
- Total open interest of the market is Rs. 125,816 crore and stock futures open interest is Rs. 33,500 crore.
- FII were net sellers of Rs. 969 crore in the cash market segment. Put-call
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Niit ru4 qfy2010-130510
1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I IT
May 13, 2010
NIIT Limited BUY
CMP Rs67
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs83
NIIT declared lower-than-expected results for 4QFY2010 registering a 1.9% Investment Period 12 months
decline in consolidated Net Revenues to Rs295cr. Bottom-line however,
witnessed a spurt of 40.2% yoy for the quarter on a consolidated basis Stock Info
marking strong performance for the quarter. Excluding the share of profits
Sector IT
from associates, Net Income grew 49% on account of the 400bp jump in
EBIDTA Margins. Profitability improved on better product mix and improved Market Cap (Rs cr) 1,110
scale in the ILS and CLS Segments exhibiting strong recovery in job prospects
Beta 1.2
and strong demand revival across industries in Corporate Training. Thus, on
the back of improving global economy indicators (ILS) and strong domestic 52 WK High / Low 79/27
foothold (SLS) aiding the company’s business plans, we expect it to seize the
upcoming opportunities and register robust Operational performance in the Avg. Daily Volume 1,894,551
near future. Hence, we recommend a Buy. Face Value (Rs) 2
Top-line pressure mitigated by excellent Margin expansion: NIIT registered BSE Sensex 17,266
Top-line de-growth of 1.9% yoy in 4QFY2010 as the School Learning Services Nifty 5,179
(SLS) and the Corporate Learning Services (CLS) businesses remained laggards
during the quarter, witnessing 27.4% yoy and 5.9% yoy de-growth, Reuters Code NIIT.BO
respectively. The only outperformer was the Individual Learning Solutions (ILS)
Bloomberg Code NIIT@IN
Business, which grew 13.9% yoy backed by 10.5% and 84% yoy growth in ILS-
IT and ILS-FMT, respectively. The company added 101 Non- Shareholding Pattern (%)
Government/Private Schools in the ICT Segment during the quarter taking the
total schools serviced to 15,000 as on 4QFY2010 v/s 12,622 in 3QFY2010. Promoters 34.0
NIIT recorded an impressive 400bp yoy expansion in EBITDA Margins backed MF/Banks/Indian FLs 18.3
by the 500bp, 370bp and 360bp yoy expansion in SLS, CLS and ILS business
segments respectively, which boosted Bottom-line by 40% yoy during the FII/NRIs/OCBs 26.3
quarter despite higher forex losses and tax costs incurred. Indian Public 21.4
Outlook and Valuation: We expect NIIT to clock CAGR of 10.3% and 16.6% in Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Top-line and Bottom-line respectively, over FY2010-12E. At current levels, the
Sensex 6.9 43.6 25.1
stock is trading at 11.6x FY2012E EPS. Based on the SOTP methodology, we
have valued NIIT, excluding its stake in NIIT Tech, at 12x FY2012E EPS of
NIIT (%) (0.3) 134.7 (40.1)
Rs5.8, fetching Rs69.6/share. We have valued the company’s stake in NIIT
Tech at Rs13/share (on market capitalisation) after providing 25% holding
company discount, effectively resulting in an SOTP Target Price of Rs83. We
recommend a Buy on the stock.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 1149 1199 1318 1459
% chg 14.1 4.4 9.9 10.7
Net Profit 70 70 83 95
% chg (7.8) 0.6 18.1 15.2
FDEPS (Rs) 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.8
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.3 13.1 13.7 14.1
P/E (x) 16.0 15.8 13.4 11.6 Rahul Jain
P/BV (x) 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 345
E-mail: rahul.j@angeltrade.com
RoE (%) 15.9 14.1 15.1 15.8
RoCE (%) 9.1 11.1 11.5 12.1
Vibha Salvi
EV/Sales (x) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9
Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 329
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.8 8.6 7.4 6.4
E-mail: vibhas.salvi@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research
1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
2. NIIT Ltd. I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY10 4QFY09 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg
Net Revenues 295 301 (1.9) 1,199 1,149 4.4
Operating Costs 247 264 (6.4) 1,043 1,030 1.2
EBITDA 48 36 30.6 157 119 32.2
Depreciation 20 19 1.6 75 65 16.1
Other Income / (Expense) (6) (4) (33) (5)
Income before Income Taxes 22 14 64.0 49 49 (1.2)
Income Taxes 8 4 100.0 11 10 3.8
Net Income 14 10 49.1 38 39 (2.6)
Share of Profit in Associates 10 8 29.4 32 31 4.4
Net Income after Associate Profits 25 18 40.2 70 70 0.5
Diluted EPS (Rs) 1.5 1.1 41.7 4.3 4.2 2.2
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.1 12.1 13.1 10.3
Net Profit Margin (%) 8.4 5.9 5.9 6.1
Effective Tax Rate (%) 35.7 29.3 22.1 21.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
Unfavourable currency movement restricted Top-line growth
NIIT witnessed Top-line de-growth of 1.9% yoy in 4QFY2010 mainly on account of
the negative exchange movement, with the Rupee appreciating against most
currencies during the quarter. The adverse exchange impact was seen in NIIT’s US
Dollar denominated Revenues, which stood at Rs10.6cr during the quarter.
Geographically, India, RoW and China witnessed growth with public private
partnership model being successfully implemented in China during the quarter, as it
inaugurated its largest facility with a seating capacity of about 10,000 students.
Segment-wise, the SLS and CLS businesses remained laggards during the quarter.
The SLS de-grew by 27.4% yoy mainly on account of de-growth in Revenues from
662 government schools earlier implemented in Andhra Pradesh, which were taken
back during 4QFY2010. However, the Non-Government/Private Schools
clocked16% yoy growth on the back of encouraging acceptance of the e-Guru
product and arrested further decline in SLS Revenues. The company added 101
Non-Government/Private Schools during the quarter taking the total number of
schools serviced to 15,000 as on 4QFY2010 v/s 12,622 in 3QFY2010.
The CLS Business continued to languish for the third consequent quarter and
registered de-growth of 5.9% yoy despite registering volume growth of 15% in
e-Learning Products mainly on account of the forex impact and introduction of
low-priced short duration courses.
The only outperformer during the quarter, the ILS Business, registered 13.9% yoy
growth backed by the 10.5% and 84% yoy growth in ILS-IT and ILS-FMT (includes
new businesses, viz. the Banking-IFBI, Management-Imperia and BPO-based NIIT
Uniqua and other new initiatives. Growth in the former was driven by India
enrolments that grew 21% yoy with 35% yoy growth in Edgeineers range of
programs and 88% yoy in Infrastructure Management Services courses. Placements
continued to be strong, crossing the 8,000 mark, up by 13% yoy. In the new
businesses, fresh order intake stood at Rs9.3cr (Rs3.6cr) in 4QFY2010 v/s Rs9.4cr in
3QFY2010. ILS-FMT enrolments grew 58% for the quarter, signaling an improving
trend with 14 more placement partners added by IFBI (totally 24 as on date),
whereas three large BPOs were added for the New Hire Training business. The
company’s total headcount stood at 3,485, down from 3,540 in 3QFY10.
May 13, 2010 2
3. NIIT Ltd. I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Exhibit 2: Segment-wise Revenue Break-up
Segment Revenues (Rs cr) chg Contribution (%)
4QFY10 4QFY09 (%) 4QFY10 4QFY09
ILS Business 123.6 108.5 13.9 41.9 36.1
ILS-IT 114.4 103.5 10.5 38.8 34.4
ILS-FMT 9.2 5.0 84.0 3.1 1.7
SLS Business 32.1 44.2 (27.4) 10.9 14.7
Government Schools 19 32.7 (42.6) 6.4 10.9
Private Schools 13 11.5 16.0 4.5 3.8
CLS Business 139.3 148.1 (5.9) 47.2 49.2
Total 295.0 300.8 (1.9) 100.0 100.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Strong Profitability across businesses expand Margins
NIIT recorded an impressive 400bp yoy expansion in EBITDA Margins in 4QFY2010
backed by expansion in EBITDA Margins by 500bp, 370bp and 360bp yoy in the
SLS, CLS (with better product mix, cost management and consistent higher
profitability in e-Learning Product business, viz. Element-K) and ILS business
segments respectively. Though the company continued to report losses at the EBIDTA
level in the new businesses, viz. ILS-FMT, it fell from Rs 4.8cr in 4QFY2009 to
Rs2.2cr in 4QFY2010, as some of the new businesses have broken even, while for
some the investment phase is almost complete thereby reducing losses.
Exhibit 3: Segment-wise EBIDTA Margins
Segment EBIDTA (Rs cr) chg EBIDTA Margin (%) chg
4QFY10 4QFY09 (%) 4QFY10 4QFY09 bp
ILS Business 26.0 18.9 37.6 21.0 17.4 3.6
ILS-IT 28.2 23.7 19.0 24.7 22.9 1.8
ILS-FMT (2.2) (4.8) (54.2) (23.9) (96.0)
SLS Business 7.4 8.0 (7.5) 23.1 18.1 5.0
CLS Business 14.1 9.5 48.4 10.1 6.4 3.7
Total 47.5 36.4 30.5 16.1 12.1 4.0
Source: Company, Angel Research
Other Income stood at a negative Rs5.7cr v/s negative Rs3.6cr in 4QFY2009 largely
due to the forex loss, which was to the tune of Rs1cr in 4QFY2010 v/s forex gains of
Rs3.8cr in 4QFY2009. Depreciation was up 1.6% yoy, while the tax rate shot up by
643bp yoy at 35.7%. Thus, the excellent expansion in Gross Margins lifted overall
Profitability performance and resulted in the 40.2% yoy spurt in Bottom-line during
the quarter.
May 13, 2010 3
4. NIIT Ltd. I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Outlook and Valuation
NIIT aims to drive growth in the SLS Segment through its content-led strong initiatives
in Private schools related offerings, viz. E-Guru portfolio and Math Labs solutions. In
this Segment, the company is currently increasing spend on the marketing and sales
fronts to tap future opportunities in Tier II and III cities. The company incurred capex
of around Rs95cr in FY2010 and plans to incur around Rs 90cr for FY2011E mainly
on school projects. The company also sees strong assured annuity revenues from
product roll outs for private schools. The IP-led revenues for FY2010 witnessed
12.3% yoy growth. Thus, non-linear revenues, viz. the strong annuity and IP-led
revenues are expected to contribute to the company’s operational performance
going ahead.
In CLS the company aims to deliver strong volume backed growth in FY2011
through improved products mix and focusing on high margin Learning Products
businesses, which has subscription based modules New Businesses are expected to
recover going ahead on the back of strong hiring plans by Banks and Insurance
companies and executive management education, which is expected to gain
momentum would drive Imperia business. Apart from new businesses the growth in
ILS is expected to be driven by strong IMS enrollments, better product mix and
leverage on the recent tie-up with SAP and IBM. The company is targeting strong
volume backed growth both in Revenues and Profits for FY2011E.
We expect Margins to improve going ahead, as losses at the EBIDTA level in the new
businesses would reduce with the new initiatives achieving break-even, while
Margins in all other businesses are expected to be maintained.
Going ahead, we expect NIIT to clock CAGR of 10.3% and 16.6% in Top-line and
Bottom-line respectively, over FY2010-12E. At current levels, the stock is trading at
11.6x FY2012E EPS. Based on the SOTP methodology, we have valued NIIT
excluding its stake in NIIT Tech at 12x FY2012E EPS of Rs5.8 fetching Rs69.6/share.
We have valued the company’s stake in NIIT Tech at Rs13/share (on market
capitalisation) after providing 25% holding company discount, effectively resulting in
an SOTP Target Price of Rs83. Hence, we recommend a Buy on the stock.
Exhibit 4: One year forward P/E Band
200
180 35x
160
140
Share Price (Rs)
120 25x
100
80 15x
60
40
5x
20
0
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Oct-04
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Source: Company, Angel Research
May 13, 2010 4
5. NIIT Ltd. I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr)
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Gross sales 1,007 1,149 1,199 1,318 1,459
Less: Excise duty - - - - -
Net Sales 1,007 1,149 1,199 1,318 1,459
Other operating income - - - - -
Total operating income 1,007 1,149 1,199 1,318 1,459
% chg 26.6 14.1 4.4 9.9 10.7
Total Expenditure 904 1,030 1,043 1,137 1,253
Cost of Services 362 428 444 487 540
SGA 237 268 251 268 290
Personnel 305 334 348 382 423
Other - - - - -
EBITDA 103 119 157 180 206
% chg 31.3 14.9 32.3 14.9 14.2
(% of Net Sales) 10.2 10.3 13.1 13.7 14.1
Depreciation& Amortisation 53 65 75 87 101
EBIT 50 54 82 93 105
% chg 60.3 7.2 51.7 14.0 12.7
(% of Net Sales) 5.0 4.7 6.8 7.1 7.2
Interest & other Charges 18 25 45 45 45
Other Income 8 20 12 13 15
(% of PBT) 19.1 41.2 24.6 21.4 19.6
Share in profit of Associates - - - - -
Recurring PBT 40 49 49 62 74
% chg 63.2 22.9 (1.1) 26.3 20.6
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - -
PBT (reported) 40 49 49 62 74
Tax (2) 10 11 14 18
(% of PBT) (5.1) 21.0 22.1 23.0 24.0
PAT (reported) 42 39 38 47 57
Add: Share of earnings of associate 33.4 28.3 32.2 35.4 39.0
Less: Minority interest (MI) (0.1) (2.5) - - -
Prior period items - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 76 70 70 83 95
ADJ. PAT 76 70 70 83 95
% chg 32.0 (7.8) 0.6 18.1 15.2
(% of Net Sales) 7.5 6.1 5.9 6.3 6.5
Basic EPS (Rs) 4.6 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.8
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.5 4.2 4.3 5.0 5.8
% chg 32.0 (7.8) 1.4 18.1 15.2
May 13, 2010 5
6. NIIT Ltd. I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Balance Sheet (Consolidated) (Rs cr)
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 33 33 33 33 33
Preference Capital - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 369 445 488 541 603
Shareholders Funds 402 478 521 574 636
Minority Interest 1 1 1 1 1
Total Loans 205 348 405 406 411
Deferred Tax Liability (25) (34) (34) (34) (34)
Total Liabilities 584 792 892 947 1,014
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 362 507 601 741 901
Less: Acc. Depreciation 231 273 348 435 536
Net Block 131 234 253 306 366
Capital Work-in-Progress 48 62 62 62 62
Goodwill 219 278 278 278 278
Investments 89 107 109 109 109
Current Assets 457 569 606 646 700
Cash 80 75 62 79 93
Loans & Advances 130 150 150 150 150
Other 247 344 394 418 458
Current liabilities 361 457 417 455 501
Net Current Assets 96 112 189 192 199
Mis. Exp. not written off 0 0 0 0 0
Total Assets 584 792 892 947 1,014
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr)
Y/E March FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Profit before tax 40.1 49.3 48.8 61.7 74.4
Depreciation 52.9 64.7 75.1 87.1 100.7
Change in Working Capital 36.6 (23.8) (10.3) 14.2 6.2
Less: Other income 15.8 20.3 12.0 13.2 14.6
Direct taxes paid (19.9) (22.5) (10.8) (14.2) (17.8)
Cash Flow from Operations 125.5 88.0 90.8 135.6 148.9
(Inc)./ Dec in Fixed Assets (84.8) (186.2) (94.9) (140.0) (160.0)
(Inc)./ Dec. in Investments (2.8) (17.4) (2.7) - -
(Inc)./ Dec. in loans and advances - - - - -
Other income 7.1 43.0 32.2 - -
Cash Flow from Investing (80.4) (160.7) (129.8) (140.0) (160.0)
Issue of Equity 0.5 2.3 (43.1) - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (22.0) 141.8 56.5 1.4 5.0
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (16.8) (25.1) 27.0 29.1 33.5
Others (0.4) (51.3) (14.1) (9.6) (13.5)
Cash Flow from Financing (38.8) 67.8 26.4 20.9 25.0
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 6.3 (4.9) (12.6) 16.5 13.9
Opening Cash balances 73.6 79.6 74.7 62.2 78.7
Closing Cash balances 79.6 74.7 62.2 78.7 92.6
May 13, 2010 6
8. NIIT Ltd. I 4QFY2010 Result Update
Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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