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4QFY2010 Result Update I Logistics
                                                                                                                        April 30, 2010




  Gateway Distriparks                                                                    BUY
                                                                                         CMP                                   Rs123
  Performance Highlights                                                                 Target Price                          Rs150
  Gateway Distriparks’ (GDL) 4QFY2010 results were marginally below our                 Investment Period                   12 Months
  estimates. Revenue growth was mainly driven by robust growth in the Rail
  business, which grew 24.2% yoy and 16.1% qoq to Rs78cr. The company’s                 Stock Info
  CFS Revenues fell 9.2% yoy on account of the fire break-out at its Punjab
                                                                                        Sector                                Logistics
  Conware CFS at Navi Mumbai, which impacted volumes. However, falling
  market share at its JNPT CFS in FY2010 by100bp to 5.3% remains a concern.             Market Cap (Rs cr)                      1,329
  During the quarter, GDL claimed write back of tax and contingencies of
                                                                                        Beta                                       0.8
  Rs5.3cr and Rs3.3cr, respectively. Consequently, PAT spiked 96.0% yoy to
  Rs25.3cr. There has been slight delay in receipt of funds from Blackstone.            52 WK High / Low                      148/64
  However, management has indicated that funds will flow in 1QFY2011 which
  will meet its capex requirements and expects the Rail Segment to break even           Avg. Daily Volume                     237,020
  at the PAT level in FY2011E. We maintain a Buy on the stock.                          Face Value (Rs)                             10

                                                                                        BSE Sensex                             17,559
  Write backs and Rail Segment drive Profitability: GDL reported 10.5% yoy
  jump in Revenues to Rs135cr due to robust growth in the Rail business, which          Nifty                                   5,278
  grew 24.2% yoy to Rs78cr. Rail volumes were up 59.4% yoy and 10.4% qoq
  to 31,668TEU driven by addition of new rakes and improving capacity                   Reuters Code                         GATE.BO
  utilisation. The company’s CFS Revenues fell 9.2% yoy and 8.3% qoq to                 Bloomberg Code                       GDPL@IN
  Rs48cr on account of the fire break-out at its Punjab Conware CFS at Navi
  Mumbai, which impacted volumes in February 2010. EBIDTA Margin came in                Shareholding Pattern (%)
  line with our estimates at 26.4%. Margins of the Rail Segment increased by
                                                                                        Promoters                                44.6
  863bp yoy and182bp qoq to 14.4% due to the change in product mix of the
  Rail Segment in favour of the high-Margin Exim Segment, which grew from               MF/Banks/Indian FIs                      16.3
  30% in 2QFY2010 to 50% in 4QFY2010. During the quarter, GDL claimed
                                                                                        FII/NRIs/OCBs                            27.4
  MAT credit of Rs5.3cr and write back of contingencies of Rs 3.3cr, which is no
  longer payable and lent a boost to Bottom-line. Thus, PAT spiked 96.0% yoy            Indian Public                            11.7
  and 26.5% qoq to Rs25.3cr
                                                                                        Abs. (%)            3m        1yr          3yr

  Outlook and Valuation: We expect GDL to emerge a key beneficiary of the               Sensex              7.3       54.0        26.6
  growing Container traffic in India on the back of its ongoing expansion plans
  and on account of having a presence at strategic locations. At the CMP, GDL           GDL               (3.5)       89.6       (12.2)
  trades at 10.2x FY2012E Earnings and 5.1x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We have
  assumed Blackstone's stake in GRFL at 37.3% and valued GDL's stake at 1.5x
  FY2012E P/BV. Hence, GDL would fetch Rs35/share for its stake in GRFL. We
  have valued GDL's CFS and Cold Chain businesses at 12x FY2012E EPS. We
  maintain a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs150.

   Key Financials
   Y/E March (Rs cr)               FY2009         FY2010E         FY2011E   FY2012E
   Net Sales                           451              522           677       853
   % chg                              66.2             15.8          29.6      25.9
   Net Profit                         79.6             79.0          98.2     130.0
   % chg                                8.2            (0.7)         24.2      32.4
   FDEPS (Rs)                           7.4             7.3           9.1      12.1
   EBITDA Margin (%)                  32.4             26.4          26.2      28.8
                                                                                      Param Desai
   P/E (x)                            16.6             16.8          13.5      10.2
                                                                                      Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 310
   RoE (%)                            12.5             12.1          13.6      16.1
                                                                                      E-mail: paramv.desai@angeltrade.com
   RoCE (%)                           12.1             10.5          11.8      13.7
   P/BV (x)                             2.6             2.3           2.0       1.7
                                                                                      Mihir Salot
   EV/Sales (x)                         3.3             2.8           1.8       1.5
                                                                                      Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 307
   EV/EBITDA (x)                      10.1             10.5           6.9       5.1
                                                                                      E-mail: mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com
   Source: Company, Angel Research

                                                                                                                                        1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                          Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
Gateway Distriparks I 4QFY2010 Result Update



                 Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Quarterly Performance
                  Y/E March (Rs cr)                  3QFY10     4QFY2009          4QFY2010             %yoy      %qoq
                  Net Sales                              129          123                  135         10.5        5.2
                  Total expenditure                       95              89               100         12.1        4.8
                  Operating Profit                        34              34                36          6.1        6.1
                  OPM (%)                               26.1          27.4                 26.4     (108bp)       23bp
                  Reported PAT                            20              13                25         96.0       26.5
                  PAT margin (%)                        15.5          10.5                 18.7      816bp      315bp
                  EPS (Rs)                                1.9             1.2               2.3        96.0       26.5
                 Source: Company, Angel Research

                 Exhibit 2: 4QFY2010 Segment-wise Performance
                  (Rs cr)                          3QFY10       4QFY09          4QFY10             % yoy        % qoq
                  Revenues                             129         123              135            10.5            5.2
                  Mumbai CFS                            43          42               40            (6.4)         (8.8)
                  Other CFS                               9         11                 9         (19.9)          (6.7)
                  Rail Freight                          67          63               78            24.2           16.1
                  Cold chain                              9           8                9           12.8            3.9
                  EBIDTA                                34          34               32            (3.9)         (3.9)
                  Mumbai CFS                            23          25               21          (16.2)          (9.7)
                  Other CFS                               3           5                3         (51.8)         (12.5)
                  Rail Freight                            8           4              11           211.0           32.9
                  Cold chain                              2         (0)                1      (1,171.6)         (49.2)
                  OPM (%)                             26.1         27.1            23.9        (323bp)        (225bp)
                  Mumbai CFS                          52.9         58.4            52.3        (609bp)         (50bp)
                  Other CFS                           32.0         49.9            30.0      (1,985bp)        (198bp)
                  Rail Freight                        12.6          5.7            14.4          863bp          182bp
                  Cold chain                          25.6        (1.3)            12.5                     (1,308bp)
                  Net Profit                          20.0         13.0            25.3              94.1         26.5
                  Mumbai CFS                          20.2         18.3            21.7              18.4          7.3
                  Other CFS                             2.8         4.3              4.0            (7.6)         42.5
                  Rail Freight                        (3.5)       (8.6)            (1.2)           (86.0)       (65.2)
                  Cold chain                            0.5       (1.0)              0.8          (186.7)         82.8
                  NPM (%)                             15.5         10.5            18.7         818bp           316bp
                  Mumbai CFS                          46.5         43.3            54.8       1,148bp           824bp
                  Other CFS                           30.0         39.7            45.8         611bp         1,580bp
                  Rail Freight                        (5.2)      (13.8)            (1.5)      1,224bp           362bp
                  Cold chain                            5.1      (11.6)              8.9                        386bp
                  Volumes (TEUs)                   105,989      89,872          105,452              17.3        (0.5)
                  CFS                               77,302      70,004           73,784               5.4        (4.6)
                  Rail Freight                      28,687      19,868           31,668              59.4        10.4
                  Realisation                       11,287      12,873           11,943             (7.2)          5.8
                  CFS                                6,821       7,595            6,544            (13.8)        (4.1)
                  Rail Freight                      23,321      31,468           24,522            (22.1)          5.1
                 Source: Company, Angel Research




April 30, 2010                                                                                                           2
Gateway Distriparks I 4QFY2010 Result Update



                 Falling market share at JNPT CFS remains a concern

                 GDL reported 13.0% decline at JNPT CFS volumes in FY2010 in spite of the 2.7%
                 yoy growth registered in container volumes at JNPT. The company’s witnessed
                 100bp erosion in market share to 5.3% at the JNPT CFS in FY2010 on the back of
                 increasing competition and oversupply of CFS at JNPT. We believe that GDL will
                 continue to face near-term pressures at the JNPT CFS as no additional capacity is
                 coming up in FY2011E. We expect additional capacity of 0.8mn TEU to come up at
                 JNPT’s third container terminal only by end FY2011E, which will improve capacity
                 utilisation of the CFS players.

                 Exhibit 3: Declining Market Share
                                6,000                                                                                             7
                                            6.5
                                5,000                                   6.2        6.3
                                                                                                                                  6
                                                                                                   5.3                      5.8
                                4,000
                                                           5.2                                                   5.3
                  ('000 TEUs)




                                                                                                                                  5
                                3,000




                                                                                                                                      (%)
                                                                                                                                  4
                                2,000

                                                                                                                                  3
                                1,000


                                   0                                                                                              2
                                        FY2006      FY2007        FY2008       FY2009        FY2010       FY2011E      FY2012E
                                                 Container Volumes at JNPT (LHS)        GDL's Market Share at JNPT (RHS)
                 Source: IPA, Angel Research


                 Outlook and Valuation

                 With Exim volumes showing signs of improvement, we expect GDL’s Revenue mix to
                 change in favour of Exim in the Rail business, which will in turn improve its Margins
                 going forward. It will also result in better performance of the CFS Segment, which
                 has registered lacklustre performance this far. We remain bullish on the long-term
                 prospects of the Container Sector, which is the core driver of growth for GDL’s
                 business. We believe that GDL's presence at strategic locations and its ongoing
                 expansion plans will make it a key beneficiary of the growing Container traffic in
                 India. At the CMP, GDL is trading at 10.2x FY2012E Earnings and 5.1x FY2012E
                 EV/EBITDA. We have assumed Blackstone's stake in GRFL at 37.3% and valued
                 GDL's stake at 1.5x FY2012E P/BV. Hence, GDL would fetch Rs35/share for its stake
                 in GRFL. We have valued GDL's CFS and Cold Chain businesses at 12x FY2012E
                 EPS. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs150.




April 30, 2010                                                                                                                        3
Gateway Distriparks I 4QFY2010 Result Update



                 Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)                                                  (Rs cr)
                  Y/E March                      FY2007    FY2008     FY2009     FY2010E    FY2011E    FY2012E
                  Gross sales                       161        271        451        522        677        853
                  Less: Excise duty                    -          -          -          -          -          -
                  Net Sales                         161        271        451        522        677        853
                  Other operating income               -          -          -          -          -          -
                  Total operating income            161        271        451        522        677        853
                  % chg                             16.2      68.6       66.2        15.8      29.6       25.9
                  Total Expenditure                   80       169        305        384        500        607
                  Transportation                   29.7      73.3      184.0       164.9      216.8      266.0
                  Labour Charges                     6.4     11.5       12.0        12.5       15.5       18.2
                  Personnel                          9.1     16.3       19.8        18.3       23.5       30.4
                  Other                            34.5      67.9       89.1       188.7      243.8      292.7
                  EBITDA                              81       102        146        138        178        245
                  % chg                            (2.9)      26.1       42.6       (5.6)      28.7       38.3
                  (% of Net Sales)                  50.5      37.7       32.4        26.4      26.2       28.8
                  Depreciation& Amortisation         14         29         44         50          53        64
                  EBIT                                67        73        102         88        125        182
                  % chg                            (7.8)        8.7      38.8      (13.4)      41.8       45.7
                  (% of Net Sales)                  41.8      27.0       22.5        16.8      18.4       21.3
                  Interest & other Charges             1          2        20         20          21        22
                  Other Income                        25        14         12           6         14        13
                  (% of PBT)                          27        17         13           8         12          7
                  Recurring PBT                    91.0      85.6       93.4        74.0      117.3      172.5
                  % chg                             11.6     (5.8)         9.0     (20.8)      58.5       47.1
                  Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)         -          -          -          -          -          -
                  PBT (reported)                   91.0      85.6       93.4        74.0      117.3      172.5
                  Tax                              13.9      13.6       15.9        (2.8)      15.1       34.5
                  (% of PBT)                        15.3      15.9       17.0       (3.8)      12.9       20.0
                  PAT (reported)                   77.1      72.0       77.5        76.8      102.2      138.0
                  Less: Minority interest (MI)     (0.7)      (1.5)      (2.1)      (2.3)        4.0        8.0
                  Prior period items                   -          -          -          -          -          -
                  PAT after MI (reported)          77.8      73.6       79.6        79.0       98.2      130.0
                  ADJ. PAT                         77.1      72.0       77.5        76.8      102.2      138.0
                  % chg                              6.8     (6.6)         7.6      (0.9)      33.1       35.1
                  (% of Net Sales)                  47.9      26.5       17.2        14.7      15.1       16.2
                  Basic EPS (Rs)                     8.4        6.4        7.4        7.3        9.1      12.1
                  Fully Diluted EPS (Rs)             8.4        6.4        7.4        7.3        9.1      12.1
                  % chg                              7.5    (24.5)       16.1       (0.7)      24.2       32.4




April 30, 2010                                                                                                 4
Gateway Distriparks I 4QFY2010 Result Update



                 Balance Sheet (Consolidated)                                                                               (Rs cr)
                 Y/E March                            FY2007           FY2008        FY2009      FY2010E     FY2011E      FY2012E
                  SOURCES OF FUNDS
                  Equity Share Capital                     92            116            108          108         108          108
                  Preference Capital                        -              -              -            -           -            -
                  Reserves& Surplus                       526            531            516          576         649          754
                  Shareholders Funds                      619            647            624          684         757          862
                  Minority Interest                        48             64             61           58          62           70
                  Total Loans                               7             18            204          213         213          213
                  Deferred Tax Liability                   15             17             18           18          18           18
                  Total Liabilities                       690            745            907          973       1,050        1,163
                  APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                  Gross Block                             408            595            800          860       1,060        1,260
                  Less: Acc. Depreciation                  67             87            117          163         212          272
                  Net Block                               341            507            683          697         848          988
                  Capital Work-in-Progress                106             47             21           30          30           30
                  Goodwill                                 25            111            110          106         102           98
                  Investments                               0              0             23           23          23           23
                  Current Assets                          236            147            140          186         430          418
                     Cash                                 207             96             59           90         316          280
                     Loans & Advances                       8             16             25           29          33           38
                     Other                                 21             35             55           67          80          101
                  Current Liab. & Prov.                    23             68             69           69        383*          395
                  Net Current Assets                      213             79             70          117          47           23
                  Misc. Exp. not written off                5              1              1            1           1            1
                  Total Assets                            690            745            907          973       1,050        1,163
                 Note: *includes Convertible Preference Shares to Blackstone

                 Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)                                                                          (Rs cr)
                  Y/E March                                FY2007        FY2008       FY2009      FY2010E     FY2011E      FY2012E
                  Profit before tax                              91            86           93          74        117          172
                  Depreciation                                   14            29           44          50           53           64
                  Change in Working Capital                     45             (8)        (29)           9        297           (13)
                  Less: Other Adjustments                      (20)            (5)          21           -            -            -
                  Direct taxes paid                              (8)         (11)         (19)           3         (15)         (34)
                  Cash Flow from Operations                   122             90         111          136         451          189
                  (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets               (256)         (223)        (193)         (69)       (200)        (200)
                  (Inc)./ Dec. in Investments                    19              1        (22)           -            -            -
                  (Inc)./ Dec. in loans and advances             35              -           7           -            -            -
                  Other income                                   11            30            5           -            -            -
                  Cash Flow from Investing                   (191)         (192)        (204)         (69)       (200)        (200)
                  Issue of Equity                                 2              2        (64)           -            -            -
                  Inc./(Dec). in loans                         (26)            12        167             8            -            -
                  Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)                    (52)          (21)         (46)        (44)         (25)         (25)
                  Others                                           -             -           -           -            -            -
                  Cash Flow from Financing                     (76)            (7)          56        (36)         (25)         (25)
                  Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                        (146)         (109)          (36)          31        226           (36)
                  Opening Cash balances                       353           207             96         59           90         316
                  Closing Cash balances                       207             98            59         90         316          280




April 30, 2010                                                                                                                      5
Gateway Distriparks I 4QFY2010 Result Update


                 Key Ratios
                 Y/E March                         FY2007    FY2008    FY2009    FY2010E   FY2011E    FY2012E
                 Valuation Ratio (x)
                 P/E (on FDEPS)                      14.6      19.3      16.6       16.8      13.5       10.2
                 P/CEPS                              12.4      13.8      10.7       10.3       8.8        6.8
                 P/BV                                 1.9       2.7       2.6        2.3       2.0        1.7
                 Dividend yield (%)                   2.8       2.8       2.9        1.2       1.6        1.6
                 EV/Sales                             7.6       4.6       3.3        2.8       1.8        1.5
                 EV/EBITDA                           15.1      12.2      10.1       10.5       6.9        5.1
                 EV / Total Assets                    1.8       1.7       1.7        1.5       1.2        1.1
                 Per Share Data (Rs)
                 EPS (Basic)                          8.4       6.4       7.4        7.3       9.1       12.1
                 EPS (fully diluted)                  8.4       6.4       7.4        7.3       9.1        2.1
                 Cash EPS                             9.9       8.9      11.5       12.0      14.0       18.0
                 DPS                                  3.5       3.5       3.5        1.5       2.0        2.0
                 Book Value                          64.3      46.2      47.7       53.6      60.7       70.8
                 Dupont Analysis
                 EBIT margin                         41.8      27.0      22.5       16.8      18.4       21.3
                 Tax retention ratio                  0.8        0.8      0.8        1.0       0.9         0.8
                 Asset turnover (x)                   0.4        0.5      0.6        0.6       0.9         1.1
                 ROIC (Post-tax)                     15.8      11.2      11.6       10.8      13.8       18.4
                 Cost of Debt (Post Tax)               5.9     13.3      15.0       10.0       8.6         8.3
                 Leverage (x)                        (0.4)     (0.2)      0.1        0.2       0.0       (0.1)
                 Operating ROE                       11.6      11.7      11.4       11.0      13.8         7.4
                 Returns (%)
                 ROCE (Pre-tax)                      10.5      10.5      12.6        9.6      12.6       16.7
                 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)                23.8      16.4      15.3       11.2      17.2       25.0
                 ROE                                 13.0      11.6      12.5       12.1      13.6       16.1
                 Turnover ratios (x)
                 Asset Turnover (Gross Block)         0.5        0.5       0.6       0.6        0.7        0.7
                 Inventory / Sales (days)               -          -         -         -          -          -
                 Receivables (days)                    29        34        34         41         38         38
                 Payables (days)                     59.5      54.4      37.3       40.0       45.0       45.0
                 WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)           49.8      (6.9)     (2.3)      13.2     (65.5)    (112.7)
                 Solvency ratios (x)
                 Net debt to equity                  (0.3)     (0.1)      0.2        0.2      (0.1)      (0.1)
                 Net debt to EBITDA                  (2.5)     (0.8)      1.0        0.9      (0.6)      (0.3)
                 Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.)     49.3      36.6       5.0        4.4        5.9        8.3




April 30, 2010                                                                                               6
Gateway Distriparks I 4QFY2010 Result Update



Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800                                          E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                                       Website: www.angeltrade.com


DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this
document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved),
and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company
may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true,
and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly,
we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel
Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other
reasons that prevent us from doing so.

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on,
directly or indirectly.

Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services
in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past.

Neither Angel Securities Limited nor its directors, employees and affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the
use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                    Gateway Distriparks
 1.    Analyst ownership of the stock                                                           No
 2.    Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                                     No
 3.    Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock                          No
 4.    Broking relationship with company covered                                                No
 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.




                                Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
                                                                    Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800



    Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
    INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
    Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
    CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302




April 30, 2010                                                                                                                                                                              7

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Gdl result update 4 qfy2010-300410

  • 1. 4QFY2010 Result Update I Logistics April 30, 2010 Gateway Distriparks BUY CMP Rs123 Performance Highlights Target Price Rs150 Gateway Distriparks’ (GDL) 4QFY2010 results were marginally below our Investment Period 12 Months estimates. Revenue growth was mainly driven by robust growth in the Rail business, which grew 24.2% yoy and 16.1% qoq to Rs78cr. The company’s Stock Info CFS Revenues fell 9.2% yoy on account of the fire break-out at its Punjab Sector Logistics Conware CFS at Navi Mumbai, which impacted volumes. However, falling market share at its JNPT CFS in FY2010 by100bp to 5.3% remains a concern. Market Cap (Rs cr) 1,329 During the quarter, GDL claimed write back of tax and contingencies of Beta 0.8 Rs5.3cr and Rs3.3cr, respectively. Consequently, PAT spiked 96.0% yoy to Rs25.3cr. There has been slight delay in receipt of funds from Blackstone. 52 WK High / Low 148/64 However, management has indicated that funds will flow in 1QFY2011 which will meet its capex requirements and expects the Rail Segment to break even Avg. Daily Volume 237,020 at the PAT level in FY2011E. We maintain a Buy on the stock. Face Value (Rs) 10 BSE Sensex 17,559 Write backs and Rail Segment drive Profitability: GDL reported 10.5% yoy jump in Revenues to Rs135cr due to robust growth in the Rail business, which Nifty 5,278 grew 24.2% yoy to Rs78cr. Rail volumes were up 59.4% yoy and 10.4% qoq to 31,668TEU driven by addition of new rakes and improving capacity Reuters Code GATE.BO utilisation. The company’s CFS Revenues fell 9.2% yoy and 8.3% qoq to Bloomberg Code GDPL@IN Rs48cr on account of the fire break-out at its Punjab Conware CFS at Navi Mumbai, which impacted volumes in February 2010. EBIDTA Margin came in Shareholding Pattern (%) line with our estimates at 26.4%. Margins of the Rail Segment increased by Promoters 44.6 863bp yoy and182bp qoq to 14.4% due to the change in product mix of the Rail Segment in favour of the high-Margin Exim Segment, which grew from MF/Banks/Indian FIs 16.3 30% in 2QFY2010 to 50% in 4QFY2010. During the quarter, GDL claimed FII/NRIs/OCBs 27.4 MAT credit of Rs5.3cr and write back of contingencies of Rs 3.3cr, which is no longer payable and lent a boost to Bottom-line. Thus, PAT spiked 96.0% yoy Indian Public 11.7 and 26.5% qoq to Rs25.3cr Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Outlook and Valuation: We expect GDL to emerge a key beneficiary of the Sensex 7.3 54.0 26.6 growing Container traffic in India on the back of its ongoing expansion plans and on account of having a presence at strategic locations. At the CMP, GDL GDL (3.5) 89.6 (12.2) trades at 10.2x FY2012E Earnings and 5.1x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We have assumed Blackstone's stake in GRFL at 37.3% and valued GDL's stake at 1.5x FY2012E P/BV. Hence, GDL would fetch Rs35/share for its stake in GRFL. We have valued GDL's CFS and Cold Chain businesses at 12x FY2012E EPS. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs150. Key Financials Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 451 522 677 853 % chg 66.2 15.8 29.6 25.9 Net Profit 79.6 79.0 98.2 130.0 % chg 8.2 (0.7) 24.2 32.4 FDEPS (Rs) 7.4 7.3 9.1 12.1 EBITDA Margin (%) 32.4 26.4 26.2 28.8 Param Desai P/E (x) 16.6 16.8 13.5 10.2 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 310 RoE (%) 12.5 12.1 13.6 16.1 E-mail: paramv.desai@angeltrade.com RoCE (%) 12.1 10.5 11.8 13.7 P/BV (x) 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.7 Mihir Salot EV/Sales (x) 3.3 2.8 1.8 1.5 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 307 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.1 10.5 6.9 5.1 E-mail: mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research 1 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
  • 2. Gateway Distriparks I 4QFY2010 Result Update Exhibit 1: 4QFY2010 Quarterly Performance Y/E March (Rs cr) 3QFY10 4QFY2009 4QFY2010 %yoy %qoq Net Sales 129 123 135 10.5 5.2 Total expenditure 95 89 100 12.1 4.8 Operating Profit 34 34 36 6.1 6.1 OPM (%) 26.1 27.4 26.4 (108bp) 23bp Reported PAT 20 13 25 96.0 26.5 PAT margin (%) 15.5 10.5 18.7 816bp 315bp EPS (Rs) 1.9 1.2 2.3 96.0 26.5 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 2: 4QFY2010 Segment-wise Performance (Rs cr) 3QFY10 4QFY09 4QFY10 % yoy % qoq Revenues 129 123 135 10.5 5.2 Mumbai CFS 43 42 40 (6.4) (8.8) Other CFS 9 11 9 (19.9) (6.7) Rail Freight 67 63 78 24.2 16.1 Cold chain 9 8 9 12.8 3.9 EBIDTA 34 34 32 (3.9) (3.9) Mumbai CFS 23 25 21 (16.2) (9.7) Other CFS 3 5 3 (51.8) (12.5) Rail Freight 8 4 11 211.0 32.9 Cold chain 2 (0) 1 (1,171.6) (49.2) OPM (%) 26.1 27.1 23.9 (323bp) (225bp) Mumbai CFS 52.9 58.4 52.3 (609bp) (50bp) Other CFS 32.0 49.9 30.0 (1,985bp) (198bp) Rail Freight 12.6 5.7 14.4 863bp 182bp Cold chain 25.6 (1.3) 12.5 (1,308bp) Net Profit 20.0 13.0 25.3 94.1 26.5 Mumbai CFS 20.2 18.3 21.7 18.4 7.3 Other CFS 2.8 4.3 4.0 (7.6) 42.5 Rail Freight (3.5) (8.6) (1.2) (86.0) (65.2) Cold chain 0.5 (1.0) 0.8 (186.7) 82.8 NPM (%) 15.5 10.5 18.7 818bp 316bp Mumbai CFS 46.5 43.3 54.8 1,148bp 824bp Other CFS 30.0 39.7 45.8 611bp 1,580bp Rail Freight (5.2) (13.8) (1.5) 1,224bp 362bp Cold chain 5.1 (11.6) 8.9 386bp Volumes (TEUs) 105,989 89,872 105,452 17.3 (0.5) CFS 77,302 70,004 73,784 5.4 (4.6) Rail Freight 28,687 19,868 31,668 59.4 10.4 Realisation 11,287 12,873 11,943 (7.2) 5.8 CFS 6,821 7,595 6,544 (13.8) (4.1) Rail Freight 23,321 31,468 24,522 (22.1) 5.1 Source: Company, Angel Research April 30, 2010 2
  • 3. Gateway Distriparks I 4QFY2010 Result Update Falling market share at JNPT CFS remains a concern GDL reported 13.0% decline at JNPT CFS volumes in FY2010 in spite of the 2.7% yoy growth registered in container volumes at JNPT. The company’s witnessed 100bp erosion in market share to 5.3% at the JNPT CFS in FY2010 on the back of increasing competition and oversupply of CFS at JNPT. We believe that GDL will continue to face near-term pressures at the JNPT CFS as no additional capacity is coming up in FY2011E. We expect additional capacity of 0.8mn TEU to come up at JNPT’s third container terminal only by end FY2011E, which will improve capacity utilisation of the CFS players. Exhibit 3: Declining Market Share 6,000 7 6.5 5,000 6.2 6.3 6 5.3 5.8 4,000 5.2 5.3 ('000 TEUs) 5 3,000 (%) 4 2,000 3 1,000 0 2 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Container Volumes at JNPT (LHS) GDL's Market Share at JNPT (RHS) Source: IPA, Angel Research Outlook and Valuation With Exim volumes showing signs of improvement, we expect GDL’s Revenue mix to change in favour of Exim in the Rail business, which will in turn improve its Margins going forward. It will also result in better performance of the CFS Segment, which has registered lacklustre performance this far. We remain bullish on the long-term prospects of the Container Sector, which is the core driver of growth for GDL’s business. We believe that GDL's presence at strategic locations and its ongoing expansion plans will make it a key beneficiary of the growing Container traffic in India. At the CMP, GDL is trading at 10.2x FY2012E Earnings and 5.1x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We have assumed Blackstone's stake in GRFL at 37.3% and valued GDL's stake at 1.5x FY2012E P/BV. Hence, GDL would fetch Rs35/share for its stake in GRFL. We have valued GDL's CFS and Cold Chain businesses at 12x FY2012E EPS. We maintain a Buy on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs150. April 30, 2010 3
  • 4. Gateway Distriparks I 4QFY2010 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 161 271 451 522 677 853 Less: Excise duty - - - - - - Net Sales 161 271 451 522 677 853 Other operating income - - - - - - Total operating income 161 271 451 522 677 853 % chg 16.2 68.6 66.2 15.8 29.6 25.9 Total Expenditure 80 169 305 384 500 607 Transportation 29.7 73.3 184.0 164.9 216.8 266.0 Labour Charges 6.4 11.5 12.0 12.5 15.5 18.2 Personnel 9.1 16.3 19.8 18.3 23.5 30.4 Other 34.5 67.9 89.1 188.7 243.8 292.7 EBITDA 81 102 146 138 178 245 % chg (2.9) 26.1 42.6 (5.6) 28.7 38.3 (% of Net Sales) 50.5 37.7 32.4 26.4 26.2 28.8 Depreciation& Amortisation 14 29 44 50 53 64 EBIT 67 73 102 88 125 182 % chg (7.8) 8.7 38.8 (13.4) 41.8 45.7 (% of Net Sales) 41.8 27.0 22.5 16.8 18.4 21.3 Interest & other Charges 1 2 20 20 21 22 Other Income 25 14 12 6 14 13 (% of PBT) 27 17 13 8 12 7 Recurring PBT 91.0 85.6 93.4 74.0 117.3 172.5 % chg 11.6 (5.8) 9.0 (20.8) 58.5 47.1 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - - PBT (reported) 91.0 85.6 93.4 74.0 117.3 172.5 Tax 13.9 13.6 15.9 (2.8) 15.1 34.5 (% of PBT) 15.3 15.9 17.0 (3.8) 12.9 20.0 PAT (reported) 77.1 72.0 77.5 76.8 102.2 138.0 Less: Minority interest (MI) (0.7) (1.5) (2.1) (2.3) 4.0 8.0 Prior period items - - - - - - PAT after MI (reported) 77.8 73.6 79.6 79.0 98.2 130.0 ADJ. PAT 77.1 72.0 77.5 76.8 102.2 138.0 % chg 6.8 (6.6) 7.6 (0.9) 33.1 35.1 (% of Net Sales) 47.9 26.5 17.2 14.7 15.1 16.2 Basic EPS (Rs) 8.4 6.4 7.4 7.3 9.1 12.1 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 8.4 6.4 7.4 7.3 9.1 12.1 % chg 7.5 (24.5) 16.1 (0.7) 24.2 32.4 April 30, 2010 4
  • 5. Gateway Distriparks I 4QFY2010 Result Update Balance Sheet (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 92 116 108 108 108 108 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 526 531 516 576 649 754 Shareholders Funds 619 647 624 684 757 862 Minority Interest 48 64 61 58 62 70 Total Loans 7 18 204 213 213 213 Deferred Tax Liability 15 17 18 18 18 18 Total Liabilities 690 745 907 973 1,050 1,163 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 408 595 800 860 1,060 1,260 Less: Acc. Depreciation 67 87 117 163 212 272 Net Block 341 507 683 697 848 988 Capital Work-in-Progress 106 47 21 30 30 30 Goodwill 25 111 110 106 102 98 Investments 0 0 23 23 23 23 Current Assets 236 147 140 186 430 418 Cash 207 96 59 90 316 280 Loans & Advances 8 16 25 29 33 38 Other 21 35 55 67 80 101 Current Liab. & Prov. 23 68 69 69 383* 395 Net Current Assets 213 79 70 117 47 23 Misc. Exp. not written off 5 1 1 1 1 1 Total Assets 690 745 907 973 1,050 1,163 Note: *includes Convertible Preference Shares to Blackstone Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) (Rs cr) Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 91 86 93 74 117 172 Depreciation 14 29 44 50 53 64 Change in Working Capital 45 (8) (29) 9 297 (13) Less: Other Adjustments (20) (5) 21 - - - Direct taxes paid (8) (11) (19) 3 (15) (34) Cash Flow from Operations 122 90 111 136 451 189 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (256) (223) (193) (69) (200) (200) (Inc)./ Dec. in Investments 19 1 (22) - - - (Inc)./ Dec. in loans and advances 35 - 7 - - - Other income 11 30 5 - - - Cash Flow from Investing (191) (192) (204) (69) (200) (200) Issue of Equity 2 2 (64) - - - Inc./(Dec). in loans (26) 12 167 8 - - Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (52) (21) (46) (44) (25) (25) Others - - - - - - Cash Flow from Financing (76) (7) 56 (36) (25) (25) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (146) (109) (36) 31 226 (36) Opening Cash balances 353 207 96 59 90 316 Closing Cash balances 207 98 59 90 316 280 April 30, 2010 5
  • 6. Gateway Distriparks I 4QFY2010 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 14.6 19.3 16.6 16.8 13.5 10.2 P/CEPS 12.4 13.8 10.7 10.3 8.8 6.8 P/BV 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.7 Dividend yield (%) 2.8 2.8 2.9 1.2 1.6 1.6 EV/Sales 7.6 4.6 3.3 2.8 1.8 1.5 EV/EBITDA 15.1 12.2 10.1 10.5 6.9 5.1 EV / Total Assets 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 8.4 6.4 7.4 7.3 9.1 12.1 EPS (fully diluted) 8.4 6.4 7.4 7.3 9.1 2.1 Cash EPS 9.9 8.9 11.5 12.0 14.0 18.0 DPS 3.5 3.5 3.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 Book Value 64.3 46.2 47.7 53.6 60.7 70.8 Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 41.8 27.0 22.5 16.8 18.4 21.3 Tax retention ratio 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 Asset turnover (x) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 ROIC (Post-tax) 15.8 11.2 11.6 10.8 13.8 18.4 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 5.9 13.3 15.0 10.0 8.6 8.3 Leverage (x) (0.4) (0.2) 0.1 0.2 0.0 (0.1) Operating ROE 11.6 11.7 11.4 11.0 13.8 7.4 Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) 10.5 10.5 12.6 9.6 12.6 16.7 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 23.8 16.4 15.3 11.2 17.2 25.0 ROE 13.0 11.6 12.5 12.1 13.6 16.1 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 Inventory / Sales (days) - - - - - - Receivables (days) 29 34 34 41 38 38 Payables (days) 59.5 54.4 37.3 40.0 45.0 45.0 WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 49.8 (6.9) (2.3) 13.2 (65.5) (112.7) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity (0.3) (0.1) 0.2 0.2 (0.1) (0.1) Net debt to EBITDA (2.5) (0.8) 1.0 0.9 (0.6) (0.3) Interest Coverage (EBIT / Int.) 49.3 36.6 5.0 4.4 5.9 8.3 April 30, 2010 6
  • 7. Gateway Distriparks I 4QFY2010 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, and are for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Securities Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Securities Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Securities Limited nor its directors, employees and affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Disclosure of Interest Statement Gateway Distriparks 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies. Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800 Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE: INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946 Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302 April 30, 2010 7