Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
(` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy Angel Est % Diff
Revenue 972.8 848.0 14.7 1,019.5 (4.6)
EBITDA 202.8 175.4 15.6 203.4 (0.3)
OPM (%) 20.9 20.7 17bp 20.0 90bp
PAT 160.4 139.0 15.4 159.0 0.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
Dabur posted modest set of numbers for the quarter. While top-line growth was
marginally below our estimates at 15% yoy primarily driven by volume growth,
earnings grew in line with our estimates at 15% yoy though partially aided by
higher other income. At the operating front, Dabur recorded margin expansion by
17bp yoy, despite the 211bp contraction in gross margin cushioned by cut in
ad-spend (down 168bp yoy). At current levels, the stock is trading at fair
valuations. Hence, we maintain Neutral view on the stock.
Volume growth steady in double-digits: Dabur posted a modest growth in top-line
by 15% yoy to `973cr led primarily by volumes. In terms of segmental
performance – CCD registered a growth of 14.2% yoy, CHD grew 14.1% yoy and
IBD posted a growth of 18.7% yoy for the quarter. Earnings registered a modest
growth of 15.4% yoy to `160cr in line with our estimates despite the 122bp rise in
the tax rate partially aided by margin expansion and higher other income. On the
operating front, Dabur delivered margin expansion of 17bp yoy to 20.9%
resulting in a modest growth of 16% yoy in EBITDA to `203cr.
Outlook and Valuation: Over FY2010E-12, we expect Dabur to post a CAGR of
19% in top-line aided by steady volume growth in its core CCD categories of hair
care, skin care and foods coupled with robust growth in its international business.
We expect Dabur’s OPMs to sustain at ~18.5-19% levels owing to benign input
cost environment, better product mix and higher operating leverage. We have
modeled in a healthy 18% CAGR in earnings aided by robust top-line growth and
consistent margins. At the CMP of `103, the stock is trading at fair valuations of
25.4x FY2012E EPS. Hence, we maintain Neutral view on the stock.
Key Financials
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 2,805 3,391 4,089 4,794
% chg 18.8 20.9 20.6 17.2
Net Profit (Adj) 390.8 500.5 593.4 706.4
% chg 17.1 28.1 18.6 19.0
EBITDA (%) 16.8 18.6 18.4 18.7
EPS (`) 2.2 2.9 3.4 4.1
P/E (x) 45.9 35.8 30.2 25.4
P/BV (x) 10.9 9.6 14.2 11.1
RoE (%) 54.4 57.1 54.0 49.1
RoCE (%) 47.2 52.4 54.9 54.2
EV/Sales (x) 6.4 5.3 4.3 3.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 38.3 28.5 23.4 19.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP `103
Target Price -
Investment Period -
Stock Info
Sector FMCG
Market Cap (` cr) 17,952
Beta 0.4
52 Week High / Low 112/73
Avg. Daily Volume 1,66,093
Face Value (`) 1
BSE Sensex 20,005
Nifty 6,013
Reuters Code DABU.BO
Bloomberg Code DABUR@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 68.7
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 8.8
FII / NRIs / OCBs 16.7
Indian Public / Others 5.8
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 10.7 22.3 4.0
Dabur 1.6 35.8 86.2
Anand Shah
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 334
anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Chitrangda Kapur
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 323
chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com
Sreekanth P.V.S
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 331
sreekanth.s@angeltrade.com
Dabur India
Performance Highlights
2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG
October 27, 2010
2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG
2October 27, 2010
Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance
 
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg
Net Sales 972.8 848.0 14.7 1,889.3 1,590.7 972.8
Consumption of RM 458.5 381.8 20.1 893.1 734.7 458.5
(% of Sales) 47.1 45.0 47.3 46.2 47.1
Staff Costs 77.9 72.2 7.8 150.6 131.9 77.9
(% of Sales) 8.0 8.5 8.0 8.3 8.0
Advertising 121.5 120.2 1.1 272.2 233.9 121.5
(% of Sales) 12.5 14.2 14.4 14.7 12.5
Other Expenses 112.1 98.4 13.9 233.7 196.5 112.1
(% of Sales) 11.5 11.6 12.4 12.4 11.5
Total Expenditure 769.9 672.6 14.5 1,549.7 1,297.0 769.9
Operating Profit 202.8 175.4 15.6 339.6 293.7 202.8
OPM (%) 20.9 20.7 18.0 18.5 20.9
Interest 4.6 3.3 39.5 5.4 7.0 4.6
Depreciation 19.0 13.9 36.2 33.4 26.3 19.0
Other Income 16.7 10.7 56.0 28.9 18.6 16.7
PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 196.0 169.0 16.0 329.7 279.0 196.0
Extr. Income/(Expense) - 0.10 - 0.10 -
PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 196.0 168.9 16.1 329.7 278.9 196.0
(% of Sales) 20.2 19.9 17.5 17.5 20.2
Provision for Taxation 35.6 28.6 24.4 61.9 47.6 35.6
(% of PBT) 18.2 16.9 18.8 17.1 18.2
PAT (Before Minority) 160.4 140.2 14.4 267.8 231.3 160.4
Minority Interest 0.1 1.3 1.0 (0.4) 0.1
Reported PAT 160.4 139.0 15.4 266.9 231.7 160.4
PATM (%) 16.5 16.4 14.1 14.6 16.5
Equity shares (cr) 174.1 173.2 174.1 173.2 174.1
EPS (`) 0.9 0.8 14.8 1.5 1.3 0.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
Steady growth in top-line led by volume growth
Dabur posted a modest 15% yoy growth in top-line to `973cr (`848cr) on a
consolidated basis led primarily by volumes. In terms of segmental performance –
CCD registered a growth of 14.2% yoy and CHD grew 14.1% yoy during the
quarter. Within CCD, health supplements category reported 31% growth led by
strong demand for Chyawanprash, oral care category grew 11%, home care
portfolio ended the quarter with 42.1% growth aided by sustained demand for
Odomos range of mosquito repellants and Odonil air fresheners, foods registered a
robust 21.9% growth during the quarter, while the digestives business grew 14.1%.
The International business registered a growth of 18.7% for the quarter, led by robust
performance in GCC, Egypt, Nigeria, Levant and North African markets. Shampoos,
hair creams and toothpastes were the key growth drivers in the international markets.
2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG
3October 27, 2010
Exhibit 2: Top-line growth driven by volumes
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Double-digit volume growth continues
Source: Company, Angel Research
Earnings growth in line with estimates
Dabur’s reported earnings for the quarter, on a consolidated basis, registered a
modest growth of 15.4% yoy to `160cr (`139cr) in line with our estimates, despite
the 122bp rise in tax rate, partially aided by margin expansion and higher other
income (up 56% yoy).
Gross margins contract, OPM cushioned by cut in ad-spend
On the operating front, Dabur delivered margin expansion of 17bp yoy to 20.9%
(20.7%) resulting into a modest growth of 16% yoy in EBITDA to `203cr (`175cr).
While gross margins contracted by 211bp on account of input cost pressures and
limited price hikes, lower ad-spend (down by 168bp yoy, flat in absolute terms)
coupled with lower staff costs (down by 51bp yoy) aided margin expansion.
Exhibit 4: Earnings growth moderates to ~15%
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Gross margins under pressure, OPM flat
Source: Company, Angel Research
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
(yoy%)
(Rscr)
Top-line (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
10.0
14.0 15.0
11.0
16.0
14.2
11.0
13.3
19.5
14
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
(%)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
(yoy%)
(Rscr)
PAT (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
18.1 16.6 17.7 15.9
20.7 19.1 19.1
14.9
20.9
51.2 49.0
53.2 52.5 55.0 54.6 54.7 52.6 52.9
11.3 11.2 13.2 15.3 14.2 14.6 13.6
16.4
12.5
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
(%)
OPM Gross Margin A&P Spends
2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG
4October 27, 2010
Exhibit 6: 1HFY2011 Category-wise growth (Consolidated)
Growth (%) Comments
Consumer Care Division 16.5 Largely volume led
Hair Care 5.8
Dabur Amla hair oil grew 14.9% (inspite higher competition) and Vatika hair oil
grew 10.7% (driven by focused marketing), Anmol coconut hair oil grew 7.3%;
Shampoo category declined 15% yoy and fell by 13.9% in 2QFY2011 on a high
base and extraordinary high growth in 1HFY2010.
Oral Care 15.3
Toothpastes grew 20.5%, Dabur Red grew 20.8%, Meswak grew 16.2% and
Babool grew 21.5%. Dabur Red toothpowder grew 4.8% driven by consumer
activation and aggressive marketing.
Health Supplements 36.2
Glucose grew strong at 48.6% and honey grew 15.8%. Chyawanprash grew at
50%, new flavours, orange and mango launched.
Digestives 14.4
Hajmola tablets grew 22.3% and Lal Tail grew 13.7% driven by brand restaging of
new pack.
Skin care 11.0
Gulabari portfolio grew 15.5% driven by consumer activations. Fem portfolio grew
10% with growth in Fem bleaches at 12.6%. New Gold Crème bleach
introduced, strong revival in Fem hair removal creams grew 20.8 in
2QFY2011.
Home Care 37.4
Odomos grew 32.9% (fear of malaria, dengue and extended monsoons fired up
the sales), Odonil grew 73.4% post re-launch, Odonil oil launched in the rural
markets, Odonil Pluggy also launched and Sanifresh reported 26.1% growth.
Foods Division 21.3
Crossed the `100cr mark for a quarter driven by the new fruit power campaign
and improved on ground visibility; Real Juices grew 22.3%, Real Activ grew at 22%,
Hommade registered a strong growth of 33.4%.
Consumer Health Division 12.2
Aggressive marketing activities fuelled growth; Pudin Hara grew 14.9%, new
variant Pudin Hara Lemon Fizz launched to target the acidity segment, Honitus
franchise grew 28.3%, Shilajit grew 28.7%, Dashmularishta grew 12.9%, new
product launches in pipeline in coming quarters.
International Business
Division
23.3
Same currency growth at 28.7% in 1HFY2011 (entirely volume led), Nigeria (47%),
Egypt (45%), Levant (35%) and North Africa (55%) and GCC (23%) registered
strong growth rates. Strong improvement in EBITDA margins due to operating
leverage. Shampoos, hair creams and toothpaste were the key growth catalysts.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Segment-wise Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E Mar (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1HFY11 1HYFY10 % chg
Total Net Sales 980.5 855.1 14.7 1,897.0 1,496.0 26.8
Consumer Care 752.5 653.8 15.1 1,456.9 1,238.1 17.7
Consumer Health 78.8 68.6 14.8 147.9 131.3 12.6
Foods Business 124.4 107.1 16.1 147.9 106.5 38.9
Retail 4.8 2.3 111.5 124.4 1.7
Others 20.0 23.2 (14.0) 20.0 18.4 8.6
Total PBIT 256.6 230.3 11.4 466.2 397.8 17.2
Consumer Care 213.8 187.8 13.9 390.3 327.5 19.2
Consumer Health 16.3 18.3 (11.0) 36.2 34.6 4.4
Foods Business 27.2 23.6 15.2 38.6 37.4 3.4
Retail (2.6) (2.0) (4.3) (4.7)
Others 2.0 2.6 (24.3) 5.4 3.0 79.7
PBIT Margin (%) 26.2 26.9 24.6 26.6
Consumer Care 28.4 28.7 26.8 26.5
Consumer Health 20.7 26.7 24.5 26.4
Foods Business 21.9 22.1 26.1 35.1
Retail 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Others 9.8 11.1 27.0 16.3
Source: Company, Angel Research
2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG
5October 27, 2010
Investment Rationale
Niche positioning to drive consistent growth: Dabur’s niche positioning based on
its ayurvedic/herbal positioning offers it an attractive and unique proposition in
terms of product portfolio. Moreover, Dabur’s well balanced and diversified
portfolio across high growth categories like skin care, home care and foods
coupled with its strong rural distribution network places it in sweet spot in terms
of growth. We model in robust 19% CAGR in revenues over FY2010-12E with
health supplements, skin care, home care and foods leading the growth.
Margins to sustain aided by pricing power and diversified input mix: We expect
Dabur to sustain its margins at ~18.5-19% levels aided by: 1) strong pricing
power (Dabur has taken ~5% price hikes in the latter part of 1QFY2011 and the
same is likely to reflect in the ensuing quarters), 2) diversified input mix and low
dependence on oil derivatives (witnessing up-trend), and 3) improving
profitability in its high-growth international business (reflected in the last two
quarters).
Outlook and Valuation
Over FY2010E-12, we expect Dabur to post a CAGR of 19% in top-line aided by
steady volume growth in its core CCD categories of hair care, skin care and foods
coupled with robust growth in its international business. We expect Dabur’s OPMs to
sustain at ~18.5-19% levels owing to benign input cost environment, better product
mix and higher operating leverage. We have modeled in a healthy 18% CAGR in
earnings aided by robust top-line growth and consistent margins. At the CMP of
`103, the stock is trading at fair valuations of 25.4x FY2012E EPS. Hence, we
maintain Neutral view on the stock.
2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG
6October 27, 2010
Exhibit 8: Key Assumptions (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Consumer Care Division (CCD) 2,041 2,341 2,818 3,268
Hair Care 651 736 824 936
Oral Care 383 427 489 550
Health Supplements 387 466 635 755
Digestives & Candies 182 202 236 267
Baby Oil & Skin care 42 56 68 80
Home Care 118 122 164 203
Foods 277 333 404 476
CHD 241 277 319 372
IBD 482 608 754 920
Others 77 96 124 155
Fem Care - 92 107 123
Total Gross Sales 2,840 3,414 4,122 4,838
Less: Excise Duty 29 25 33 44
Net Sales 2,811 3,389 4,089 4,794
(YoY Growth %) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Consumer Care Division (CCD) 12.6 14.7 20.4 16.0
Hair Care 23.0 13.0 12.0 13.6
Oral Care 4.8 11.5 14.5 12.7
Health Supplements 11.3 20.4 36.0 19.1
Digestives & Candies 11.8 10.8 17.0 13.3
Baby Oil & Skin care 14.0 33.2 20.1 18.3
Home Care 9.7 3.3 34.4 24.3
Foods 14.4 20.0 21.3 17.8
CHD 18.9 15.0 15.2 16.5
IBD 39.9 26.3 24.0 22.0
Others 13.1 24.2 30.0 25.0
Fem Care - - - -
Total Gross Sales 17.0 20.2 20.7 17.4
Net Sales 17.6 20.6 20.7 17.2
Source: Company, Angel Research
2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG
7October 27, 2010
Exhibit 9: Peer Valuation
Company Reco Mcap CMP TP Upside P/E (x) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%) CAGR #
(` cr) (`) (`) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Sales PAT
Asian Paints Buy 24,008 2,503 2,952 17.9 27.0 22.0 3.1 2.6 39.8 37.5 17.6 18.8
Colgate Reduce 11,856 872 838 (3.8) 26.9 22.9 5.0 4.3 116.2 104.2 15.3 10.7
Dabur Neutral 17,952 103 105 1.5 30.2 25.4 4.3 3.6 54.0 49.1 18.9 18.8
GSKCHL Neutral 8,975 2,134 2,118 (0.8) 31.7 26.2 3.6 3.1 28.6 28.9 16.4 19.5
GCPL Neutral 13,470 416 410 (1.4) 28.0 22.3 4.2 3.5 37.6 30.1 42.9 30.1
HUL Reduce 64,000 293 275 (6.1) 27.1 24.5 3.1 2.8 72.9 70.1 11.0 11.5
ITC Accumulate 128,139 168 177 5.2 26.3 22.8 5.8 5.0 31.8 31.1 15.2 17.6
Marico Reduce 8,104 133 130 (2.1) 27.3 23.5 2.6 2.3 38.5 33.4 16.3 20.0
Nestle Neutral 32,811 3,403 3,395 (0.2) 40.9 33.6 5.4 4.6 114.4 106.7 16.2 20.7
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: #
denotes CAGR for FY2010-12E, ^
In case of Neutral recommendation, TP = Fair value
Exhibit 10: Angel v/s Consensus estimates
Top-line (` cr) FY2011E FY2012E EPS (`) FY2011E FY2012E
Angel estimates 4,089 4,794 Angel estimates 3.4 4.1
Consensus 3,892 4,660 Consensus 3.4 4.1
Diff (%) 5.1 2.9 Diff (%) (0.4) (1.1)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11: Absolute returns of Dabur v/s Sensex
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 12: One-yr forward P/E
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 13: One-yr forward P/E
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Blue-line indicates 5-year average
Exhibit 14: One-yr forward Premium v/s Sensex
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Blue-line indicates 5-year average
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sensex Dabur
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
SharePrice(Rs)
15x 19x 23x 27x
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Apr-02
Nov-02
Jul-03
Mar-04
Nov-04
Jul-05
Mar-06
Nov-06
Jul-07
Feb-08
Oct-08
Jun-09
Feb-10
Oct-10
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Apr-02
Nov-02
Jul-03
Mar-04
Nov-04
Jul-05
Mar-06
Nov-06
Jul-07
Feb-08
Oct-08
Jun-09
Feb-10
Oct-10
2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG
8October 27, 2010
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E Mar (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Gross sales 2,080 2,396 2,834 3,417 4,122 4,838
Less: Excise duty 37 35 29 25 33 44
Net Sales 2,043 2,361 2,805 3,391 4,089 4,794
Total operating income 2,043 2,361 2,805 3,391 4,089 4,794
% chg 9.5 15.6 18.8 20.9 20.6 17.2
Total Expenditure 1,693 1,952 2,335 2,761 3,337 3,898
Cost of Materials 971 1,115 1,376 1,551 1,930 2,268
Advertising Exp 256 296 343 493 572 671
Personnel 167 199 235 285 319 369
Others 300 341 381 432 515 590
EBITDA 350 409 470 630 753 896
% chg 20.3 17.0 14.9 33.9 19.4 19.1
(% of Net Sales) 17.1 17.3 16.8 18.6 18.4 18.7
Depreciation& Amortisation 41 42 49 56 62 68
EBIT 309 367 421 574 690 828
% chg 19.0 18.9 14.7 36.2 20.3 19.9
(% of Net Sales) 15.1 15.6 15.0 16.9 16.9 17.3
Interest & other Charges 15 17 23 12 8 3
Other Income 26 34 47 39 55 58
(% of PBT) 8.1 8.8 10.5 8.8 10.5 6.6
Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 319 384 445 601 737 883
% chg 24.5 20.3 15.7 35.1 22.7 19.8
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - (0) - - - -
PBT (reported) 319 385 445 601 737 883
Tax 37 51 54 100 144 177
(% of PBT) 11.7 13.2 12.1 13.2 12.1 16.7
PAT (reported) 282 334 391 500 593 706
Add: Share of associates - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) (0.9) (0.1) (0.4) (0.8) (1.0) (1.0)
PAT after MI (reported) 283 334 391 501 594 707
ADJ. PAT 283 334 391 501 594 707
% chg 24.7 18.0 17.2 28.1 18.6 19.0
(% of Net Sales) 13.9 14.1 13.9 14.8 14.5 14.8
Basic EPS (`) 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.8 3.4 4.1
Fully Diluted EPS (`) 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.4 4.1
% chg 24.7 18.0 17.2 28.1 18.6 19.0
2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG
9October 27, 2010
Balance Sheet (Consolidated)
Y/E Mar (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 86 86 87 87 174 174
Preference Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0
Reserves& Surplus 393 531 732 848 1,089 1,438
Shareholders Funds 480 618 819 935 1,263 1,612
Minority Interest 4 5 5 4 4 4
Total Loans 160 99 230 179 109 39
Deferred Tax Liability 24 3 7 11 11 11
Total Liabilities 668 725 1,060 1,129 1,387 1,666
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 610 685 799 986 1,090 1,199
Less: Acc. Depreciation 238 264 299 339 401 470
Net Block 372 421 500 647 689 729
Capital Work-in-Progress 7 44 59 30 55 60
Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0
Investments 81 204 347 264 264 264
Current Assets 640 774 951 1,106 1,557 2,039
Cash 61 77 148 192 420 691
Loans & Advances 181 223 249 367 480 575
Other 399 475 553 546 656 773
Current liabilities 452 732 805 920 1,181 1,429
Net Current Assets 189 42 146 186 376 610
Misc Exp 20 14 9 3 3 3
Total Assets 668 725 1,060 1,129 1,387 1,666
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
Y/E Mar (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Profit before tax 319 384 445 601 737 883
Depreciation 41 42 49 56 62 68
Change in Working Capital (79) 24 (95) (48) (27) (57)
Interest / Dividend (Net) 15 17 23 12 8 3
Direct taxes paid 37 51 54 100 144 177
Others (37) (25) (29) (11) 1 1
Cash Flow from Operations 222 392 340 510 638 722
Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets (45) (124) (129) (134) (129) (114)
Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (33) (113) (122) (104) 0 0
Cash Flow from Investing (79) (237) (251) (238) (129) (114)
Issue of Equity 2 5 5 (14) 0 0
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 56 (61) 131 (51) (70) (70)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 177 66 130 151 203 265
Interest / Dividend (Net) 15 17 23 12 8 3
Cash Flow from Financing (134) (139) (17) (228) (281) (337)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 10 16 72 44 228 271
Opening Cash balances 51 61 77 148 192 420
Closing Cash balances 61 77 148 192 420 691
2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG
10October 27, 2010
Key Ratios
Y/E Mar FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 63.4 53.8 45.9 35.8 30.2 25.4
P/CEPS 27.6 23.7 20.3 16.1 27.4 23.2
P/BV 18.6 14.4 10.9 9.6 14.2 11.1
Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.7
EV/Sales 8.8 7.6 6.4 5.3 4.3 3.6
EV/EBITDA 51.6 43.9 38.3 28.5 23.4 19.3
EV / Total Assets 27.0 24.8 17.0 15.9 12.7 10.4
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic) 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.8 3.4 4.1
EPS (fully diluted) 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.4 4.1
Cash EPS 3.7 4.4 5.1 6.4 3.8 4.5
DPS 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.3 1.8
Book Value 5.6 7.1 9.5 10.8 7.3 9.3
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax) 47.9 52.7 47.2 52.4 54.9 54.2
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 46.3 50.8 47.4 51.7 58.4 68.2
RoE 57.8 60.8 54.4 57.1 54.0 49.1
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.8 4.0
Inventory / Sales (days) 46 47 49 46 45 44
Receivables (days) 25 27 23 13 14 15
Payables (days) 65 71 60 50 50 49
Net working capital (days) 23 (5) 0 (1) (4) (6)
2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG
11October 27, 2010
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
Disclaimer
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Dabur
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Dabur ru2 qfy2011-271010

  • 1.
    Please refer toimportant disclosures at the end of this report 1 (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy Angel Est % Diff Revenue 972.8 848.0 14.7 1,019.5 (4.6) EBITDA 202.8 175.4 15.6 203.4 (0.3) OPM (%) 20.9 20.7 17bp 20.0 90bp PAT 160.4 139.0 15.4 159.0 0.8 Source: Company, Angel Research Dabur posted modest set of numbers for the quarter. While top-line growth was marginally below our estimates at 15% yoy primarily driven by volume growth, earnings grew in line with our estimates at 15% yoy though partially aided by higher other income. At the operating front, Dabur recorded margin expansion by 17bp yoy, despite the 211bp contraction in gross margin cushioned by cut in ad-spend (down 168bp yoy). At current levels, the stock is trading at fair valuations. Hence, we maintain Neutral view on the stock. Volume growth steady in double-digits: Dabur posted a modest growth in top-line by 15% yoy to `973cr led primarily by volumes. In terms of segmental performance – CCD registered a growth of 14.2% yoy, CHD grew 14.1% yoy and IBD posted a growth of 18.7% yoy for the quarter. Earnings registered a modest growth of 15.4% yoy to `160cr in line with our estimates despite the 122bp rise in the tax rate partially aided by margin expansion and higher other income. On the operating front, Dabur delivered margin expansion of 17bp yoy to 20.9% resulting in a modest growth of 16% yoy in EBITDA to `203cr. Outlook and Valuation: Over FY2010E-12, we expect Dabur to post a CAGR of 19% in top-line aided by steady volume growth in its core CCD categories of hair care, skin care and foods coupled with robust growth in its international business. We expect Dabur’s OPMs to sustain at ~18.5-19% levels owing to benign input cost environment, better product mix and higher operating leverage. We have modeled in a healthy 18% CAGR in earnings aided by robust top-line growth and consistent margins. At the CMP of `103, the stock is trading at fair valuations of 25.4x FY2012E EPS. Hence, we maintain Neutral view on the stock. Key Financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 2,805 3,391 4,089 4,794 % chg 18.8 20.9 20.6 17.2 Net Profit (Adj) 390.8 500.5 593.4 706.4 % chg 17.1 28.1 18.6 19.0 EBITDA (%) 16.8 18.6 18.4 18.7 EPS (`) 2.2 2.9 3.4 4.1 P/E (x) 45.9 35.8 30.2 25.4 P/BV (x) 10.9 9.6 14.2 11.1 RoE (%) 54.4 57.1 54.0 49.1 RoCE (%) 47.2 52.4 54.9 54.2 EV/Sales (x) 6.4 5.3 4.3 3.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 38.3 28.5 23.4 19.3 Source: Company, Angel Research NEUTRAL CMP `103 Target Price - Investment Period - Stock Info Sector FMCG Market Cap (` cr) 17,952 Beta 0.4 52 Week High / Low 112/73 Avg. Daily Volume 1,66,093 Face Value (`) 1 BSE Sensex 20,005 Nifty 6,013 Reuters Code DABU.BO Bloomberg Code DABUR@IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 68.7 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 8.8 FII / NRIs / OCBs 16.7 Indian Public / Others 5.8 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 10.7 22.3 4.0 Dabur 1.6 35.8 86.2 Anand Shah 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 334 anand.shah@angeltrade.com Chitrangda Kapur 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 323 chitrangdar.kapur@angeltrade.com Sreekanth P.V.S 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 331 sreekanth.s@angeltrade.com Dabur India Performance Highlights 2QFY2011 Result Update | FMCG October 27, 2010
  • 2.
    2QFY2011 Result Update| FMCG 2October 27, 2010 Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance   Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg Net Sales 972.8 848.0 14.7 1,889.3 1,590.7 972.8 Consumption of RM 458.5 381.8 20.1 893.1 734.7 458.5 (% of Sales) 47.1 45.0 47.3 46.2 47.1 Staff Costs 77.9 72.2 7.8 150.6 131.9 77.9 (% of Sales) 8.0 8.5 8.0 8.3 8.0 Advertising 121.5 120.2 1.1 272.2 233.9 121.5 (% of Sales) 12.5 14.2 14.4 14.7 12.5 Other Expenses 112.1 98.4 13.9 233.7 196.5 112.1 (% of Sales) 11.5 11.6 12.4 12.4 11.5 Total Expenditure 769.9 672.6 14.5 1,549.7 1,297.0 769.9 Operating Profit 202.8 175.4 15.6 339.6 293.7 202.8 OPM (%) 20.9 20.7 18.0 18.5 20.9 Interest 4.6 3.3 39.5 5.4 7.0 4.6 Depreciation 19.0 13.9 36.2 33.4 26.3 19.0 Other Income 16.7 10.7 56.0 28.9 18.6 16.7 PBT (excl. Extr. Items) 196.0 169.0 16.0 329.7 279.0 196.0 Extr. Income/(Expense) - 0.10 - 0.10 - PBT (incl. Extr. Items) 196.0 168.9 16.1 329.7 278.9 196.0 (% of Sales) 20.2 19.9 17.5 17.5 20.2 Provision for Taxation 35.6 28.6 24.4 61.9 47.6 35.6 (% of PBT) 18.2 16.9 18.8 17.1 18.2 PAT (Before Minority) 160.4 140.2 14.4 267.8 231.3 160.4 Minority Interest 0.1 1.3 1.0 (0.4) 0.1 Reported PAT 160.4 139.0 15.4 266.9 231.7 160.4 PATM (%) 16.5 16.4 14.1 14.6 16.5 Equity shares (cr) 174.1 173.2 174.1 173.2 174.1 EPS (`) 0.9 0.8 14.8 1.5 1.3 0.9 Source: Company, Angel Research Steady growth in top-line led by volume growth Dabur posted a modest 15% yoy growth in top-line to `973cr (`848cr) on a consolidated basis led primarily by volumes. In terms of segmental performance – CCD registered a growth of 14.2% yoy and CHD grew 14.1% yoy during the quarter. Within CCD, health supplements category reported 31% growth led by strong demand for Chyawanprash, oral care category grew 11%, home care portfolio ended the quarter with 42.1% growth aided by sustained demand for Odomos range of mosquito repellants and Odonil air fresheners, foods registered a robust 21.9% growth during the quarter, while the digestives business grew 14.1%. The International business registered a growth of 18.7% for the quarter, led by robust performance in GCC, Egypt, Nigeria, Levant and North African markets. Shampoos, hair creams and toothpastes were the key growth drivers in the international markets.
  • 3.
    2QFY2011 Result Update| FMCG 3October 27, 2010 Exhibit 2: Top-line growth driven by volumes Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 3: Double-digit volume growth continues Source: Company, Angel Research Earnings growth in line with estimates Dabur’s reported earnings for the quarter, on a consolidated basis, registered a modest growth of 15.4% yoy to `160cr (`139cr) in line with our estimates, despite the 122bp rise in tax rate, partially aided by margin expansion and higher other income (up 56% yoy). Gross margins contract, OPM cushioned by cut in ad-spend On the operating front, Dabur delivered margin expansion of 17bp yoy to 20.9% (20.7%) resulting into a modest growth of 16% yoy in EBITDA to `203cr (`175cr). While gross margins contracted by 211bp on account of input cost pressures and limited price hikes, lower ad-spend (down by 168bp yoy, flat in absolute terms) coupled with lower staff costs (down by 51bp yoy) aided margin expansion. Exhibit 4: Earnings growth moderates to ~15% Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 5: Gross margins under pressure, OPM flat Source: Company, Angel Research - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 (yoy%) (Rscr) Top-line (LHS) YoY growth (RHS) 10.0 14.0 15.0 11.0 16.0 14.2 11.0 13.3 19.5 14 - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 (%) - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 (yoy%) (Rscr) PAT (LHS) YoY growth (RHS) 18.1 16.6 17.7 15.9 20.7 19.1 19.1 14.9 20.9 51.2 49.0 53.2 52.5 55.0 54.6 54.7 52.6 52.9 11.3 11.2 13.2 15.3 14.2 14.6 13.6 16.4 12.5 - 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 (%) OPM Gross Margin A&P Spends
  • 4.
    2QFY2011 Result Update| FMCG 4October 27, 2010 Exhibit 6: 1HFY2011 Category-wise growth (Consolidated) Growth (%) Comments Consumer Care Division 16.5 Largely volume led Hair Care 5.8 Dabur Amla hair oil grew 14.9% (inspite higher competition) and Vatika hair oil grew 10.7% (driven by focused marketing), Anmol coconut hair oil grew 7.3%; Shampoo category declined 15% yoy and fell by 13.9% in 2QFY2011 on a high base and extraordinary high growth in 1HFY2010. Oral Care 15.3 Toothpastes grew 20.5%, Dabur Red grew 20.8%, Meswak grew 16.2% and Babool grew 21.5%. Dabur Red toothpowder grew 4.8% driven by consumer activation and aggressive marketing. Health Supplements 36.2 Glucose grew strong at 48.6% and honey grew 15.8%. Chyawanprash grew at 50%, new flavours, orange and mango launched. Digestives 14.4 Hajmola tablets grew 22.3% and Lal Tail grew 13.7% driven by brand restaging of new pack. Skin care 11.0 Gulabari portfolio grew 15.5% driven by consumer activations. Fem portfolio grew 10% with growth in Fem bleaches at 12.6%. New Gold Crème bleach introduced, strong revival in Fem hair removal creams grew 20.8 in 2QFY2011. Home Care 37.4 Odomos grew 32.9% (fear of malaria, dengue and extended monsoons fired up the sales), Odonil grew 73.4% post re-launch, Odonil oil launched in the rural markets, Odonil Pluggy also launched and Sanifresh reported 26.1% growth. Foods Division 21.3 Crossed the `100cr mark for a quarter driven by the new fruit power campaign and improved on ground visibility; Real Juices grew 22.3%, Real Activ grew at 22%, Hommade registered a strong growth of 33.4%. Consumer Health Division 12.2 Aggressive marketing activities fuelled growth; Pudin Hara grew 14.9%, new variant Pudin Hara Lemon Fizz launched to target the acidity segment, Honitus franchise grew 28.3%, Shilajit grew 28.7%, Dashmularishta grew 12.9%, new product launches in pipeline in coming quarters. International Business Division 23.3 Same currency growth at 28.7% in 1HFY2011 (entirely volume led), Nigeria (47%), Egypt (45%), Levant (35%) and North Africa (55%) and GCC (23%) registered strong growth rates. Strong improvement in EBITDA margins due to operating leverage. Shampoos, hair creams and toothpaste were the key growth catalysts. Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 7: Segment-wise Performance (Consolidated) Y/E Mar (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1HFY11 1HYFY10 % chg Total Net Sales 980.5 855.1 14.7 1,897.0 1,496.0 26.8 Consumer Care 752.5 653.8 15.1 1,456.9 1,238.1 17.7 Consumer Health 78.8 68.6 14.8 147.9 131.3 12.6 Foods Business 124.4 107.1 16.1 147.9 106.5 38.9 Retail 4.8 2.3 111.5 124.4 1.7 Others 20.0 23.2 (14.0) 20.0 18.4 8.6 Total PBIT 256.6 230.3 11.4 466.2 397.8 17.2 Consumer Care 213.8 187.8 13.9 390.3 327.5 19.2 Consumer Health 16.3 18.3 (11.0) 36.2 34.6 4.4 Foods Business 27.2 23.6 15.2 38.6 37.4 3.4 Retail (2.6) (2.0) (4.3) (4.7) Others 2.0 2.6 (24.3) 5.4 3.0 79.7 PBIT Margin (%) 26.2 26.9 24.6 26.6 Consumer Care 28.4 28.7 26.8 26.5 Consumer Health 20.7 26.7 24.5 26.4 Foods Business 21.9 22.1 26.1 35.1 Retail 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others 9.8 11.1 27.0 16.3 Source: Company, Angel Research
  • 5.
    2QFY2011 Result Update| FMCG 5October 27, 2010 Investment Rationale Niche positioning to drive consistent growth: Dabur’s niche positioning based on its ayurvedic/herbal positioning offers it an attractive and unique proposition in terms of product portfolio. Moreover, Dabur’s well balanced and diversified portfolio across high growth categories like skin care, home care and foods coupled with its strong rural distribution network places it in sweet spot in terms of growth. We model in robust 19% CAGR in revenues over FY2010-12E with health supplements, skin care, home care and foods leading the growth. Margins to sustain aided by pricing power and diversified input mix: We expect Dabur to sustain its margins at ~18.5-19% levels aided by: 1) strong pricing power (Dabur has taken ~5% price hikes in the latter part of 1QFY2011 and the same is likely to reflect in the ensuing quarters), 2) diversified input mix and low dependence on oil derivatives (witnessing up-trend), and 3) improving profitability in its high-growth international business (reflected in the last two quarters). Outlook and Valuation Over FY2010E-12, we expect Dabur to post a CAGR of 19% in top-line aided by steady volume growth in its core CCD categories of hair care, skin care and foods coupled with robust growth in its international business. We expect Dabur’s OPMs to sustain at ~18.5-19% levels owing to benign input cost environment, better product mix and higher operating leverage. We have modeled in a healthy 18% CAGR in earnings aided by robust top-line growth and consistent margins. At the CMP of `103, the stock is trading at fair valuations of 25.4x FY2012E EPS. Hence, we maintain Neutral view on the stock.
  • 6.
    2QFY2011 Result Update| FMCG 6October 27, 2010 Exhibit 8: Key Assumptions (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Consumer Care Division (CCD) 2,041 2,341 2,818 3,268 Hair Care 651 736 824 936 Oral Care 383 427 489 550 Health Supplements 387 466 635 755 Digestives & Candies 182 202 236 267 Baby Oil & Skin care 42 56 68 80 Home Care 118 122 164 203 Foods 277 333 404 476 CHD 241 277 319 372 IBD 482 608 754 920 Others 77 96 124 155 Fem Care - 92 107 123 Total Gross Sales 2,840 3,414 4,122 4,838 Less: Excise Duty 29 25 33 44 Net Sales 2,811 3,389 4,089 4,794 (YoY Growth %) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Consumer Care Division (CCD) 12.6 14.7 20.4 16.0 Hair Care 23.0 13.0 12.0 13.6 Oral Care 4.8 11.5 14.5 12.7 Health Supplements 11.3 20.4 36.0 19.1 Digestives & Candies 11.8 10.8 17.0 13.3 Baby Oil & Skin care 14.0 33.2 20.1 18.3 Home Care 9.7 3.3 34.4 24.3 Foods 14.4 20.0 21.3 17.8 CHD 18.9 15.0 15.2 16.5 IBD 39.9 26.3 24.0 22.0 Others 13.1 24.2 30.0 25.0 Fem Care - - - - Total Gross Sales 17.0 20.2 20.7 17.4 Net Sales 17.6 20.6 20.7 17.2 Source: Company, Angel Research
  • 7.
    2QFY2011 Result Update| FMCG 7October 27, 2010 Exhibit 9: Peer Valuation Company Reco Mcap CMP TP Upside P/E (x) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%) CAGR # (` cr) (`) (`) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Sales PAT Asian Paints Buy 24,008 2,503 2,952 17.9 27.0 22.0 3.1 2.6 39.8 37.5 17.6 18.8 Colgate Reduce 11,856 872 838 (3.8) 26.9 22.9 5.0 4.3 116.2 104.2 15.3 10.7 Dabur Neutral 17,952 103 105 1.5 30.2 25.4 4.3 3.6 54.0 49.1 18.9 18.8 GSKCHL Neutral 8,975 2,134 2,118 (0.8) 31.7 26.2 3.6 3.1 28.6 28.9 16.4 19.5 GCPL Neutral 13,470 416 410 (1.4) 28.0 22.3 4.2 3.5 37.6 30.1 42.9 30.1 HUL Reduce 64,000 293 275 (6.1) 27.1 24.5 3.1 2.8 72.9 70.1 11.0 11.5 ITC Accumulate 128,139 168 177 5.2 26.3 22.8 5.8 5.0 31.8 31.1 15.2 17.6 Marico Reduce 8,104 133 130 (2.1) 27.3 23.5 2.6 2.3 38.5 33.4 16.3 20.0 Nestle Neutral 32,811 3,403 3,395 (0.2) 40.9 33.6 5.4 4.6 114.4 106.7 16.2 20.7 Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: # denotes CAGR for FY2010-12E, ^ In case of Neutral recommendation, TP = Fair value Exhibit 10: Angel v/s Consensus estimates Top-line (` cr) FY2011E FY2012E EPS (`) FY2011E FY2012E Angel estimates 4,089 4,794 Angel estimates 3.4 4.1 Consensus 3,892 4,660 Consensus 3.4 4.1 Diff (%) 5.1 2.9 Diff (%) (0.4) (1.1) Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 11: Absolute returns of Dabur v/s Sensex Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 12: One-yr forward P/E Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 13: One-yr forward P/E Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Blue-line indicates 5-year average Exhibit 14: One-yr forward Premium v/s Sensex Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: Blue-line indicates 5-year average 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sensex Dabur - 20 40 60 80 100 120 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 SharePrice(Rs) 15x 19x 23x 27x - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 Apr-02 Nov-02 Jul-03 Mar-04 Nov-04 Jul-05 Mar-06 Nov-06 Jul-07 Feb-08 Oct-08 Jun-09 Feb-10 Oct-10 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Apr-02 Nov-02 Jul-03 Mar-04 Nov-04 Jul-05 Mar-06 Nov-06 Jul-07 Feb-08 Oct-08 Jun-09 Feb-10 Oct-10
  • 8.
    2QFY2011 Result Update| FMCG 8October 27, 2010 Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) Y/E Mar (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 2,080 2,396 2,834 3,417 4,122 4,838 Less: Excise duty 37 35 29 25 33 44 Net Sales 2,043 2,361 2,805 3,391 4,089 4,794 Total operating income 2,043 2,361 2,805 3,391 4,089 4,794 % chg 9.5 15.6 18.8 20.9 20.6 17.2 Total Expenditure 1,693 1,952 2,335 2,761 3,337 3,898 Cost of Materials 971 1,115 1,376 1,551 1,930 2,268 Advertising Exp 256 296 343 493 572 671 Personnel 167 199 235 285 319 369 Others 300 341 381 432 515 590 EBITDA 350 409 470 630 753 896 % chg 20.3 17.0 14.9 33.9 19.4 19.1 (% of Net Sales) 17.1 17.3 16.8 18.6 18.4 18.7 Depreciation& Amortisation 41 42 49 56 62 68 EBIT 309 367 421 574 690 828 % chg 19.0 18.9 14.7 36.2 20.3 19.9 (% of Net Sales) 15.1 15.6 15.0 16.9 16.9 17.3 Interest & other Charges 15 17 23 12 8 3 Other Income 26 34 47 39 55 58 (% of PBT) 8.1 8.8 10.5 8.8 10.5 6.6 Share in profit of Associates - - - - - - Recurring PBT 319 384 445 601 737 883 % chg 24.5 20.3 15.7 35.1 22.7 19.8 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - (0) - - - - PBT (reported) 319 385 445 601 737 883 Tax 37 51 54 100 144 177 (% of PBT) 11.7 13.2 12.1 13.2 12.1 16.7 PAT (reported) 282 334 391 500 593 706 Add: Share of associates - - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) (0.9) (0.1) (0.4) (0.8) (1.0) (1.0) PAT after MI (reported) 283 334 391 501 594 707 ADJ. PAT 283 334 391 501 594 707 % chg 24.7 18.0 17.2 28.1 18.6 19.0 (% of Net Sales) 13.9 14.1 13.9 14.8 14.5 14.8 Basic EPS (`) 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.8 3.4 4.1 Fully Diluted EPS (`) 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.4 4.1 % chg 24.7 18.0 17.2 28.1 18.6 19.0
  • 9.
    2QFY2011 Result Update| FMCG 9October 27, 2010 Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Y/E Mar (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 86 86 87 87 174 174 Preference Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 Reserves& Surplus 393 531 732 848 1,089 1,438 Shareholders Funds 480 618 819 935 1,263 1,612 Minority Interest 4 5 5 4 4 4 Total Loans 160 99 230 179 109 39 Deferred Tax Liability 24 3 7 11 11 11 Total Liabilities 668 725 1,060 1,129 1,387 1,666 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 610 685 799 986 1,090 1,199 Less: Acc. Depreciation 238 264 299 339 401 470 Net Block 372 421 500 647 689 729 Capital Work-in-Progress 7 44 59 30 55 60 Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 Investments 81 204 347 264 264 264 Current Assets 640 774 951 1,106 1,557 2,039 Cash 61 77 148 192 420 691 Loans & Advances 181 223 249 367 480 575 Other 399 475 553 546 656 773 Current liabilities 452 732 805 920 1,181 1,429 Net Current Assets 189 42 146 186 376 610 Misc Exp 20 14 9 3 3 3 Total Assets 668 725 1,060 1,129 1,387 1,666 Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Y/E Mar (` cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 319 384 445 601 737 883 Depreciation 41 42 49 56 62 68 Change in Working Capital (79) 24 (95) (48) (27) (57) Interest / Dividend (Net) 15 17 23 12 8 3 Direct taxes paid 37 51 54 100 144 177 Others (37) (25) (29) (11) 1 1 Cash Flow from Operations 222 392 340 510 638 722 Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets (45) (124) (129) (134) (129) (114) Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments (33) (113) (122) (104) 0 0 Cash Flow from Investing (79) (237) (251) (238) (129) (114) Issue of Equity 2 5 5 (14) 0 0 Inc./(Dec.) in loans 56 (61) 131 (51) (70) (70) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 177 66 130 151 203 265 Interest / Dividend (Net) 15 17 23 12 8 3 Cash Flow from Financing (134) (139) (17) (228) (281) (337) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 10 16 72 44 228 271 Opening Cash balances 51 61 77 148 192 420 Closing Cash balances 61 77 148 192 420 691
  • 10.
    2QFY2011 Result Update| FMCG 10October 27, 2010 Key Ratios Y/E Mar FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 63.4 53.8 45.9 35.8 30.2 25.4 P/CEPS 27.6 23.7 20.3 16.1 27.4 23.2 P/BV 18.6 14.4 10.9 9.6 14.2 11.1 Dividend yield (%) 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.7 EV/Sales 8.8 7.6 6.4 5.3 4.3 3.6 EV/EBITDA 51.6 43.9 38.3 28.5 23.4 19.3 EV / Total Assets 27.0 24.8 17.0 15.9 12.7 10.4 Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.8 3.4 4.1 EPS (fully diluted) 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.9 3.4 4.1 Cash EPS 3.7 4.4 5.1 6.4 3.8 4.5 DPS 1.4 1.5 1.7 2.0 1.3 1.8 Book Value 5.6 7.1 9.5 10.8 7.3 9.3 Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) 47.9 52.7 47.2 52.4 54.9 54.2 Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 46.3 50.8 47.4 51.7 58.4 68.2 RoE 57.8 60.8 54.4 57.1 54.0 49.1 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.8 4.0 Inventory / Sales (days) 46 47 49 46 45 44 Receivables (days) 25 27 23 13 14 15 Payables (days) 65 71 60 50 50 49 Net working capital (days) 23 (5) 0 (1) (4) (6)
  • 11.
    2QFY2011 Result Update| FMCG 11October 27, 2010 Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com Disclaimer This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Dabur 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)