The document describes population change in England and Wales from 1700-2000 and provides an overview of the demographic transition model. It shows that the total population is determined by two factors: natural increase determined by birth and death rates, and migration. The demographic transition model outlines five stages of population growth: high fluctuating (Stage 1), early expanding (Stage 2), late expanding (Stage 3), low fluctuating (Stage 4), and a potential Stage 5 of declining population. Reasons for changes in birth and death rates are provided for each stage. Limitations of the model are that it does not account for migration, all countries may not progress through stages at the same rate or pattern, and it is unclear if a Stage 5 will

2. Population Change in
England and Wales
1700-2000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Total Population

3. Population Change
Births
Immigrants
Deaths
Emigrants
Total
Population
Natural Increase
Migration
The total population of an area is the balance between 2
forces of change: natural increase and migration
Natural increase is the balance between birth rates and death
rates
Inputs Outputs

4. World Population Changes

5. Global Natural Increase

6. Doubling Time
This map shows how long it will take for countries to double
their population if it continued to grow at the present rate

7. Demographic Transition
Model
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Natural
Increase
In Population
Natural
Decrease
In Population
Stage 5 ?

8. Stage 1
High Fluctuating
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 1
• Low population
– Increasing very slowly
• High birth rate
• High death rate
• Tribes (Amazonia)
• UK: pre-1780

9. Stage 2
Early Expanding
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 2
• Population growing at
faster rate
• High but decreasing
birth rate
• Decreasing death rate
• Sri Lanka/Bolivia
• UK: 1780-1880

10. Stage 3
Late Expanding
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 3
• Population still
increasing, but rate of
increase slowing down
• Decreasing birth rate
• Low death rate
• Uruguay/China
• UK: 1880-1940

11. Stage 4
Low Fluctuating
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 4
• High population,
almost stable
• Low birth rate
• Low death rate
• Canada/USA
• UK: post-1940

12. Demographic Transition
Model
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Ethiopia/
Niger
UK:
pre-1780
Natural
Increase
In Population
Natural
Decrease
In Population
Sri Lanka/
Bolivia
UK:
1780-1880
Uruguay/
China
UK:
1880-1940
Canada/
USA
UK:
Post-1940

13. Reasons
What do you think the reasons are
for the changes at each stage?

14. Reasons for Stage 1
High Fluctuating
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 1
• Little access to birth control
• Many children die in infancy
so parents have more to
compensate
• Children are needed to work
on the land
• Some religions encourage
large families
• Death rates are high due to
disease, famine, poor diet,
poor hygiene, little medical
science

15. Reasons for Stage 2
Early Expanding
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 2 • Improvements in medical care
• Improvements in sanitation
and water supply
• Quality and quantity of food
produced improves
• Transport and
communications improve
movements of food and
medical supplies
• Decrease in infant mortality

16. Reasons for Stage 3
Late Expanding
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 3 • Increased access to contraception
• Lower infant mortality rates so less
need for bigger families
• Industrialisation and mechanisation
means fewer labourers required
• As wealth increases, desire for
material possessions takes over the
desire for large families
• Equality of women means they can
follow a career rather than just
staying at home

17. Reasons for Stage 4
Low Fluctuating
Total
Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Stage 4
• Rates fluctuate with ‘baby
booms’ and epidemics of
illnesses and diseases
• Reasons for Stage 4 have
improved and it stabilises

18. Is there a Stage 5?
?
?
?
Stage 5: Declining (or Depleting)
Population

19. Limitations
What limitations do you think there could be with
the model?
• It does not include the influences of migration
• It assumes that all countries will go through the
same pattern
• There is no time scale
• Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very
different in different countries
• And finally, is there a stage 5?

20. The
End?