The Demographic Transition Model, developed by Warren Thompson (1929), posits a shift from an agricultural, rural economy to an industrialized, urban society. A characteristic of this shift is an intermediate period of rapid population growth during which slowly declining fertility rates lag behind rapidly declining mortality rates. This presentation will explore the four stages of the Demographic Transition Model, the relationship between economic development and population growth, as well as the potential issues and shortfalls when applying this classic model to today’s developing countries.

1. Keene State College Human Cultural Mosaic ISGEOG203 Fall ‘09 Professor: Dr. Rydant Created by: April Buzby Supplemental Instructor The Demographic Transition

3. Commonly involves 4 stages

4. An idealized picture of population change in a country. April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009 2

6. A specific age group (i.e. ages 0-4) is called a cohort.

7. Different stages in the demographic transition show considerably different population pyramids3

9. Crude Death Rate: High

10. Rate of Natural Increase: Fluctuating

11. Examples: Britain in the 17th and 18th century; some remote Amazon tribes4

13. High Infant Mortality Rate

14. Need for workers in agriculture

15. Religious beliefs

16. Children as economic assets5

18. Famine

19. Lack of clean water and sanitation

20. Lack of health care

21. War

22. Limited food supply

23. Lack of education6

25. Population Growth Rate: ≤ 1%

26. Doubling Time: ~100 yearsApril Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009 7

28. Short life expectancy8

29. Stage 2: Transitional Period Crude Birth Rate: High Crude Death Rate: Decreasing Rate of Natural Increase: Increasing Examples: Britain late 18th Century to mid-19th Century, Kenya April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009 9

31. People are used to having many children. Takes time for culture to change

32. Religious beliefs10

34. Improved sanitation

35. Improved food production and storage

36. Improved transport for food11

38. England’s Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions.

39. LDC cause of today’s population explosion

40. Population Growth rate: 3%

41. Doubling Time: 18-20 years12

43. Increasingly youthful age structure

44. Accelerating population growth13

45. Stage 3: Industrial Period April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009 Crude Birth Rate: Decreasing Crude Death Rate: Continues to decrease Rate of Natural Increase: Increasing but at a slower rate Examples: Britain early 20th century; Brazil; Mexico 14

47. Improvements in contraceptive technology.

48. Changes in values about children and sex.

49. Parents need fewer children.

50. Rising costs of dependent children to a family.

51. Valuation of women beyond motherhood.

52. Working women have less time to devote to child rearing. April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009 15

54. Vaccinations

55. Better understanding of the spread of diseases

56. Pre-natal care

57. Improved sanitation (i.e. indoor plumbing)

58. Improved quality and quantity of food16

60. Population Growth rate: ≤ 1%

61. Doubling Time: 65 years17

63. Bulge in the reproductive cohorts

64. Narrowing pyramid base18

65. Stage 4: Post-Industrial Period April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009 Crude Birth Rate: Low Crude Death Rate: Low Rate of Natural Increase: Stable Examples: Britain late-20th century; Sweden; Japan 19

67. Family planning

68. Good health

69. Improved status of women

70. Later marriages20

72. High quantity and quality of food supply21

74. Zero Population Growth (ZPG) reached

75. Stable but high population size

76. Population Growth rate: >1%

77. Doubling Time: ~1000 years22

79. Age structure becomes older.23

81. CBR: 10.53

82. CDR: 11.88

83. TFR: 1.39

84. Population Growth : -0.147%24

86. Assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth

87. Assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate.

88. Assumes that countries will go through all the stages.

89. Some countries may skip stages.

90. Does not account for migration.

91. Does not take into account the role of social change in determining birth rates, e.g., the education of women.

92. Some countries are in a demographic trap and can not progress25

94. Theorizes that advanced HDI promotes a rebound in fertility.

95. In many countries with very high levels of development (around 0.95) fertility rates are now approaching two children per woman.Example: Netherlands CBR: 12 CDR: 9 TFR: 1.7 Population Growth : 0.7 HDI: 0.953 (9th) 26

97. Commonly involves 4 stages

98. An idealized picture of population change in a country.

99. Used to indicate future birth rates, death rates , and the population size of developing countries

100. Generalization from European experience

101. Assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth

102. Different stages in the demographic transition show considerably different population pyramids27

103. Crude Birth Rate (CBR): the annual number of live births per 1000 people. Crude Death Rate (CDR): the annual number of deaths per 1000 people. Total Fertility Rate (TFR): the annual number of live births per woman from age 15 to 49 years old. Infant Mortality Rate: the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1000 live births. Life Expectancy: number of years which an individual at a given age could expect to live at present mortality levels. Rate of Natural Increase: the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths during the year found through the equation birth rate (b) – death rate (d) = rate of natural increase (r). Doubling Time: the number of years it will take to double the present population given its current rate of population growth. Replacement Fertility: the level of fertility at which a cohort of women on the average are having only enough children to replace themselves and their partner in the population. Population Momentum: the tendency of population growth to continue after the TFR achieves replacement fertility levels. 28 Glossary April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009

104. Sources April Buzby Keene State College Fall 2009 CIA World Factbook Domosh , M., Neumann, R.P., Price, P.L., Jodan-Bychkov, T.G., (2009). The human mosaic, eleventh edition. Montgomery, Keith. The demographic transition Myrskyla, M., Kohler, H-P., and Billari, F. Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature 460, 741-743 (6 August 2009). U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. International Data Base (IDB). United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Human Development Reports. 29