The demographic transition model describes population changes in countries as they develop economically and socially. It outlines five stages: 1) High birth and death rates due to lack of healthcare and sanitation. 2) Declining death rates due to improved healthcare and standards of living lead to population growth. 3) Falling birth rates as women's roles change and families desire fewer children. 4) Low birth and death rates as populations stabilize. 5) Potential population decline if birth rates fall below replacement levels. The model has limitations as it fails to consider migration, assumes all countries follow the same pattern, and timescales vary between countries developing at different paces. It also oversimplifies reasons

3. 60
50
40
Birth Rate
30 Death Rate
Total Population
20
10
0
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

4. What do
you think
Hanel, Germany
these
cartoons
are saying?
J. Gathorpe-Hardy

5. Stage 1
 Low population
Birth Rate  Increasing very slowly
High birth rate
Death Rate
High death rate
UK: pre-1780
Now? –tribes in remote
Total
Africa and Amazon -
Population Sudan

6. Stage 2
• Population growing
Birth Rate
at faster rate
• High but decreasing
birth rate
• Decreasing death
Death Rate
Total rate
Population
• Sri Lanka/Kenya
• UK: 1780-1880

7. Stage 3
• Population still
Total
Population increasing, but rate
of increase slowing
down
• Decreasing birth rate
Birth Rate
Death Rate • Low death rate
• China
• UK: 1880-1940

8. Stage 4
Total
• High population,
Population almost stable
• Low birth rate
• Low death rate
Birth Rate • UK,
Death Rate
• UK: post-1940

9. ?
?
?
Stage 5: Depleting Population
Sweden?

10. Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4
Total
Natural
Population
Increase
In Population
Natural
Decrease
In Population
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Ethiopia/ Bangladesh/ Brazil/ Japan/
Niger Kenya China USA
UK: UK: UK: UK:
pre-1780 1780-1880 1880-1940 Post-1940

11. Demographic Transition
Model and the
Pyramids?

12. What do you think the reasons are
for the changes at each stage?

13. Stage 1  Little access to birth control
Birth Rate  Many children die in infancy
so parents have more to
Death Rate compensate
 Children are needed to work
on the land
 Some religions encourage
large families
Total  Death rates are high due to
Population disease, famine, poor diet,
poor hygiene, little medical
science

14. Stage 2 • Improvements in medical care
• Improvements in sanitation and water
supply
Birth Rate • Quality and quantity of food produced
improves
• Transport and communications
improve movements of food and
medical supplies
• Decrease in infant mortality
Total Death Rate
Population

15. Stage 3 • Increased access to
contraception
Total
Population • Lower infant mortality rates so
less need for bigger families
• Industrialisation and
mechanisation means fewer
labourers required
• As wealth increases, desire for
Birth Rate material possessions takes over
Death Rate the desire for large families
• Equality of women means they
can follow a career rather than
just staying at home

16. Stage 4
• Rates fluctuate with ‘baby booms’
Total and epidemics of illnesses and
Population diseases
• Reasons for Stage 4 have improved
and it stabilises
Birth Rate
Death Rate

18. High BR:
 Lack of knowledge of birth control
 Children as workers and
investment
 To counter the impact of high IMR
 Male heir
High DR:
 Poor health care
 Lack of hygiene
 Poor living condition
 46/1000 in 1921

19. Stage 2 1920-1985
• Population growing at faster rate
• (population explosion)
Birth Rate • BR still high
• Decreasing death rate
• India became a British colony which
brought improved medicines, health
care, water and sanitation services
Death Rate
• IMR and DR fell
• 50% were below 15 yrs old when they
reach child bearing age, population
growth will still continued to grow
rapidly

20. Stage 3
• Since 1985
• DR- levelling off
(9/1000)
• Not many ageing
Birth Rate population – low 4%
• BR decline 28/1000
Death Rate
• Natural increase still
high 1.9%

21.  NO
 Not all countries have steady development / stages of
development
 Some countries have no proper census
 DTM based on British Countries
 Eurocentric – a very European perspectives
 Stage of development is pretty much slower
 Some LEDCs have no history of DTM until recently
 China – government is adopting ANTI-NATALIST POLICY
therefore change the DTM

22.  Only considered BR, DR & NI
 It does not include the influences of migration
(immigration, emigration)
 It assumes that all countries will go through the
same pattern
 There is no time scale
 Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very
different in different countries
 And finally, is there a stage 5?

23. Like all models, the demographic transition model has its
limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several
factors and events:
1. Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death
rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first
time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the
model should have a fifth stage added to it.
2. The model assumes that in time all countries pass
through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely,
however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever
become industrialised.

24. 3. The model assumes that the fall in the death
rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of
industrialisation. Initially, the death rate in many
British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions
which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it
only began to fall after advances were made in
medicine.
The delayed fall in the death rate in many
developing countries has been due mainly to their
inability to afford medical facilities. In many
countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage

25.  3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due
to religious and/or political opposition to birth
control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more
rapid, and came earlier, in China following the
government-introduced ‘onechild’ policy.
The timescale of the model, especially in several
South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and
Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a
much faster rate than did the early industrialised
countries.

26. 4. Countries that grew as a
consequence of emigration from Europe
(USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass
through the early stages of the model.

28. http://www.slideshare.net/reservoirgeogs/demogra
phic-transition-presentation