5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. DYNAMICS OF FARMLANDS IN THE
NIAYES REGION AND ITS RELATIONSHIP
TO FOOD INSECURITY IN SENEGAL
Mateugue DIACK and Macoumba LOUM
Université Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Sénégal
mateugue.diack@ugb.edu.sn
GRF 5th IDRC Davos 2014

2. The Problem
• Food security is one of the
most serious challenges
facing the countries of West
African sub-region
• Progressive degradation of
most croplands
• Rapid growth population
which has exceeded growth
in agricultural production.

3. Risk Analysis Model
URBANIZATION AND
INDUSTRIALIZATION
REDUCTION OF
FARMLANDS
FOOD INSECURITY
HAZARD
VULNERABILITY
RISK

4. The Approach
This study relates the variability of farmlands to the level of
building capacity for resilience in response to low productivity and
hence food insecurity, based on two hypothesises.
• The actual trend observed in occupying the agricultural
spaces for other purposes is a risk of morgaging the
achievement of food security in Sénégal;
• The agronomic potential of the lands in the Niayes region is
not degraded in a such way to justify their use for industrial
zones or new settlements.

5. Methodology
• Satelite Imagery processsings were done, using
SPOT and LANDSAT along with Envi and ArcGis
and GIS to monitor changes in surface area of the
farmlands.
• Surveys were also done in the area that covered 4
villages: Sebikotane, SebiPonty, Deni Malick Gueye
and Keur Ndiaye Lô.

6. Population Characterization
• 68.8% males
• 31.2% females
• Age between 25 – 60+ years
• Literacy level: 71.9% have received education
• 7.0% singles
• 52.3% married and monogamous
• 32.8% married and polygamous
• 62.2% have between 2 and 8 kids
• 26.6% have more than 8 kids.

7. Farmland Distribution 1999 (SPOT4)

8. Farmland Distribution 2003 (SPOT 5)

9. Farmland Distribution 2009 (SPOT 6)

10. Farmland Distribution 2014
(Landsat ETM+)

11. Changes in Surface area over time
Year Surface area (ha)
1999 2,384
2003 2,256
2009 2,097
2014 1,541

12. Prospective Dynamics of the Farmland
areas (1999-2050)
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
1999 2003 2009 2014 2020 2025 2050
Farmland Surface Area (ha)

13. Conclusion
• The study showed the existence of a real thread if
nothing is done to change the patterns in which
farmlands, initially dedicated to crop production in the
Niayes, are being used for other purposes industrial and
housing companies.
• Therefore, a decision-making system, centered on the
needs of using more farmlands for optimizing food
production, should be applicable if all other challenges
are overcome.
• The results underline a need of greater understanding of
the level of resilience population of this region should
have for a better management design with a prevention
plan of risks to ensure food security.