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WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN – HEUTE FÜR MORGEN
Towards a Safe, Secure and Sustainable Energy Supply: The
Role of Resilience in a Holistic and Integrated Framework
P. Burgherr, S. Hirschberg, M. Spada, P. Eckle :: Paul Scherrer Institut
30 August 2016
 Concepts and Methodological Framework
- From Risk Assessment to Resilience Management
- Security of Supply and Sustainability
- Resilience
- Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)
- Future Resilient Systems (FRS) Program
 Case Study: EU Project SECURE
- Policy Scenarios
- MCDA Indicators
- Selected Preference Profiles
- Conclusions
Content
Page 2
Safe, Secure & Sustainable Energy Supply (S3)
Page 3
Random accidents
 Technical failures
 Natural hazards
Intentional attacks
 Vandalism, sabotage, theft
 Piracy
 Terrorism
Black Swans:
 Lack of knowledge
Perfect Storms
 Randomness
 Environment, Economy, Society
 Time: today – future
 Space: North – South/East
 Availability
 Acceptability
 Accessibility
 Affordability
 Services to society
 Exposed to multiple threats
 Interdependencies; increased vulnerability
 Disruptions may cascade
 No single owner/operator/regulator
A conflict of objectives?
US President Gerald Ford in 1975:
• „We, the United States, are not blameless. Our growing dependence upon
foreign resources has been adding to our vulnerability for years and years, and
we did nothing to prepare ourselves for such an event as the embargo of 1973.“
• „Within the next 10 years my program envisions 200 major nuclear power
plants, 250 major new coal mines, 150 major coal –fired power plants, 30 major
new refineries, 20 major new synthetic fuel plants, the drilling of many
thousands of new wells, the insulation of 18 million homes and the
manufacturing and sale of millions of new automobiles, trucks and buses that
use much less fuel.“
Security of Supply and Sustainability
Page 4
Page 5
• In ecology, the concept of resilience has been
introduced in 1973 by Holling.
• Resilience is the “the magnitude of disturbance
that can be absorbed before the system changes
its structure …”
• The adaptive cycle schematically represents the
four distinct ecosystem phases:
- Growth or exploitation (r)
- Conservation (K)
- Collapse or release (Ω)
- Reorganization (α)
Source:HollingandGunderson(2002)
Resilience (National Academy of Sciences)
• Ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover
from, and more successfully adapt to adverse
events.
• Risk analysis quantifies probability that the system
will reach the lowest point of the critical
functionality.
• Risk management helps the system prepare and
plan for adverse events.
• Resilience management integrates the temporal
capacity of a system to
absorb and recover
from adverse events,
and then adapt .
Linkov et al. (2014),
Nature Climate Change
Resilience
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) 1/2
Page 6
•Two main phases of MCDA  Structuring and Evaluation
•Many important concepts of MCDA are present in the letter:
conflicting criteria, uncertainty, pairwise comparisons, value
judgments, compensation, weights, aggregation etc.
Letter of Benjamin Franklin to his friend Joseph Priestly (1772)
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) 2/2
Page 7
 Framework for aggregating multi-disciplinary
indicators, i.e. integration of the various
quantitative technology performance measures
 Has the capability to explicitly reflect subjective
social acceptance issues.
 Enables to account for a wide variety of
environmental, economic and social aspects
(the 3 pillar model of sustainability) supplemented
by the security of supply in a transparent manner.
 Provides an invaluable support to informed
decision-making
 Helps guiding a public debate and participative
processes.
 Illustrates the sensitivity of the ranking to
subjective preferences provided by the various
individual or group stakeholders.
Subjective & Objective elements
Module 2.1: Assessing and Measuring Energy Systems Resilience
 http://frs.ethz.ch/module/m2-1-energy-system-accident-risks-and-indicators/
Future Resilient Systems (FRS) Program
Page 8
Source: Sun, Lustenberger, Gasser, Kim, Burgherr, Spada, Hirschberg (2016)
Case Study: EU Project SECURE
Page 9
 15 partners, 11 countries
 http://cordis.europa.eu/result/rcn/55344_en.html
Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic implications
SECURE Policy Scenarios
Page 10
Basic scenarios
Shock scenarios
Baseline (BL) Muddling Through
(MT)
Europe Alone (EA) Global Regime –
Full Trade (FT)
No climate policy Non-coordinated,
low profile climate
policies
(Copenhagen
forever)
Climate policy with
target of reducing
GHG emissions by
60% in 2050
compared to 1990
levels only in
Europe
Cap & Trade:
FT1: two global
markets for CO2
(industrialized. vs.
developing
countries)
FT2: fully
integrated, global
market for CO2
Nuclear accident
Subsequent phase
out of nuclear
power (Nuc)
BL Nuc MT Nuc - FT Nuc
Fossil fuel price
Shock (Sh)
BL Sh MT Sh EA Sh -
No Carbon Capture
& Storage (CCS)
- MT CCS EA CCS FT CCS
Source: Eckle et al. (2011)
MCDA Indicators
Page 11
Criteria / Indicator Description (Unit)
ENVIRONMENT CO2 Emissions World Worldwide CO2 emissions per capita (t CO2 / capita)
CO2 Emissions EU 27 EU 27 CO2 emissions per capita(t CO2 / capita)
ECONOMY Energy Expenditure World Worldwide energy expenditure per Gross Domestic Product (USD / GDP)
Energy Expenditure EU 27 EU 27 energy expenditure per Gross Domestic Product (USD / GDP)
SOCIAL Severe Accidents Risk from severe accidents
Average Number of
Fatalities
Cumulated expected number of fatalities from severe (≥5 fatalities)
accidents worldwide in fossil (coal, oil, gas), hydro and nuclear energy chains
(fatalities / year)
Consequences of
Worst Accident
Maximum fatalities from severe (≥5 fatalities) accidents worldwide in fossil
(coal, oil, gas), hydro and nuclear energy chains (Fatalities
Oil Spills Oil spill risk is assumed to scale linearly with the amounts of oil used, so the
indicator scales with the amount of oil used globally (Mt)
Terrorism Risk Cumulated terrorism risk for EU 27, based on attack scenarios for a
European Pressurized Reactor (EPR), hydropower dam, refinery and
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Terminal (fatalities)
SECURITY OF
SUPPLY
Diversity EU 27
Consumption
Shannon-Wiener diversity index of EU 27 gross inland energy consumption
(Mtoe) for the different energy carriers (Factor)
Share of energy imports
EU 27
Ratio of Primary Production (Mtoe) / Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe) in
EU 27 (Factor)
Diversity of Resources Shannon-Wiener diversity index of net exporters from 23 world regions in
oil, gas and coal markets
Diversity World Oil
Market
Shannon-Wiener diversity index of net oil exporters (Mtoe) from 23 world
regions in POLES (Factor
Diversity World Gas
Market
Shannon-Wiener diversity index of net gas exporters from 23 world regions
in POLES (Factor)
Diversity World Coal
Market
Shannon-Wiener diversity index of net coal exporters from 23 world regions
in POLES (Factor)
Source:Eckleetal.(2011)
Indicator Hierarchy
Page 12
Source:Eckleetal.(2011)
• Weighted Sum Algorithm: transparent and simple way to calculate ranking.
• Weights w1 to wm are multiplied with respective rescaled indicators (sij) and
summed up for each alternative.
• Alternatives are then ranked and the higher the value, the better it performs.
• Among basic scenarios, performance increases with more stringent CO2-policies.
• Nuclear shock scenarios are worse than related basic scenarios, CCS shock scenarios
are about the same, and price shock scenarios perform better.
Equal Weighting Case
Page 13
Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
Environmentally-Centered Case
Page 14
• Unsurprisingly, scenario performance increases with more stringent CO2-policies.
• The price shock scenarios perform well, whereas failure of CCS and nuclear accident
scenarios perform badly.
Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
Economy-Centered Case
Page 15
• This profile favors scenarios with no or weak CO2-policies.
• FT scenarios with shocks perform worst because they lead to a high output of the
then expensive CO2.
Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
Socially-Centered Case
Page 16
• This profile favors scenarios with reduced use of fossil, i.e. FT and fossil fuel price
shock scenarios.
Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
Security of Supply Centered Case
Page 17
• Scenarios with no or weak CO2-policies perform worst.
• The reason is the larger share of fossil energy use in this case.
• Import dependence decreases with progressively stronger CO2-policies.
Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
 No single scenario meets all sustainability and security of supply criteria used
in SECURE; thus, trade-offs are inevitable.
 Given balance between environmental, economic, social and security of supply
criteria, the global regime climate regime scenarios (without shocks) perform
best while the baseline scenario is consequently worst.
 This result is with two exceptions quite stable with respect to the variations of
preferences:
- Economy-centered profiles.
- Aversion towards worst consequences of severe accidents.
 Under the assumptions made in the SECURE project the global regime
scenarios are highly vulnerable to shocks in form of a very severe nuclear
accident and/or failure to implement carbon capture and storage on a large
scale.
 There are clear synergies between protection of climate and security of supply.
Meeting ambitious GHG-emission reduction goals by means of successful de-
carbonization of the energy supply system through expansion of renewables,
nuclear and CCS, combined with very extensive efficiency improvements, is
also highly beneficial for security of supply.
Conclusions
Page 18
Page 19
Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen
Thank you
for your attention!
Questions?
Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis (LEA)
Technology Assessment Group (TAG)
http://www.psi.ch/ta
peter.burgherr@psi.ch

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  • 1. WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN – HEUTE FÜR MORGEN Towards a Safe, Secure and Sustainable Energy Supply: The Role of Resilience in a Holistic and Integrated Framework P. Burgherr, S. Hirschberg, M. Spada, P. Eckle :: Paul Scherrer Institut 30 August 2016
  • 2.  Concepts and Methodological Framework - From Risk Assessment to Resilience Management - Security of Supply and Sustainability - Resilience - Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) - Future Resilient Systems (FRS) Program  Case Study: EU Project SECURE - Policy Scenarios - MCDA Indicators - Selected Preference Profiles - Conclusions Content Page 2
  • 3. Safe, Secure & Sustainable Energy Supply (S3) Page 3 Random accidents  Technical failures  Natural hazards Intentional attacks  Vandalism, sabotage, theft  Piracy  Terrorism Black Swans:  Lack of knowledge Perfect Storms  Randomness  Environment, Economy, Society  Time: today – future  Space: North – South/East  Availability  Acceptability  Accessibility  Affordability  Services to society  Exposed to multiple threats  Interdependencies; increased vulnerability  Disruptions may cascade  No single owner/operator/regulator
  • 4. A conflict of objectives? US President Gerald Ford in 1975: • „We, the United States, are not blameless. Our growing dependence upon foreign resources has been adding to our vulnerability for years and years, and we did nothing to prepare ourselves for such an event as the embargo of 1973.“ • „Within the next 10 years my program envisions 200 major nuclear power plants, 250 major new coal mines, 150 major coal –fired power plants, 30 major new refineries, 20 major new synthetic fuel plants, the drilling of many thousands of new wells, the insulation of 18 million homes and the manufacturing and sale of millions of new automobiles, trucks and buses that use much less fuel.“ Security of Supply and Sustainability Page 4
  • 5. Page 5 • In ecology, the concept of resilience has been introduced in 1973 by Holling. • Resilience is the “the magnitude of disturbance that can be absorbed before the system changes its structure …” • The adaptive cycle schematically represents the four distinct ecosystem phases: - Growth or exploitation (r) - Conservation (K) - Collapse or release (Ω) - Reorganization (α) Source:HollingandGunderson(2002) Resilience (National Academy of Sciences) • Ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to adverse events. • Risk analysis quantifies probability that the system will reach the lowest point of the critical functionality. • Risk management helps the system prepare and plan for adverse events. • Resilience management integrates the temporal capacity of a system to absorb and recover from adverse events, and then adapt . Linkov et al. (2014), Nature Climate Change Resilience
  • 6. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) 1/2 Page 6 •Two main phases of MCDA  Structuring and Evaluation •Many important concepts of MCDA are present in the letter: conflicting criteria, uncertainty, pairwise comparisons, value judgments, compensation, weights, aggregation etc. Letter of Benjamin Franklin to his friend Joseph Priestly (1772)
  • 7. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) 2/2 Page 7  Framework for aggregating multi-disciplinary indicators, i.e. integration of the various quantitative technology performance measures  Has the capability to explicitly reflect subjective social acceptance issues.  Enables to account for a wide variety of environmental, economic and social aspects (the 3 pillar model of sustainability) supplemented by the security of supply in a transparent manner.  Provides an invaluable support to informed decision-making  Helps guiding a public debate and participative processes.  Illustrates the sensitivity of the ranking to subjective preferences provided by the various individual or group stakeholders. Subjective & Objective elements
  • 8. Module 2.1: Assessing and Measuring Energy Systems Resilience  http://frs.ethz.ch/module/m2-1-energy-system-accident-risks-and-indicators/ Future Resilient Systems (FRS) Program Page 8 Source: Sun, Lustenberger, Gasser, Kim, Burgherr, Spada, Hirschberg (2016)
  • 9. Case Study: EU Project SECURE Page 9  15 partners, 11 countries  http://cordis.europa.eu/result/rcn/55344_en.html Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic implications
  • 10. SECURE Policy Scenarios Page 10 Basic scenarios Shock scenarios Baseline (BL) Muddling Through (MT) Europe Alone (EA) Global Regime – Full Trade (FT) No climate policy Non-coordinated, low profile climate policies (Copenhagen forever) Climate policy with target of reducing GHG emissions by 60% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels only in Europe Cap & Trade: FT1: two global markets for CO2 (industrialized. vs. developing countries) FT2: fully integrated, global market for CO2 Nuclear accident Subsequent phase out of nuclear power (Nuc) BL Nuc MT Nuc - FT Nuc Fossil fuel price Shock (Sh) BL Sh MT Sh EA Sh - No Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) - MT CCS EA CCS FT CCS Source: Eckle et al. (2011)
  • 11. MCDA Indicators Page 11 Criteria / Indicator Description (Unit) ENVIRONMENT CO2 Emissions World Worldwide CO2 emissions per capita (t CO2 / capita) CO2 Emissions EU 27 EU 27 CO2 emissions per capita(t CO2 / capita) ECONOMY Energy Expenditure World Worldwide energy expenditure per Gross Domestic Product (USD / GDP) Energy Expenditure EU 27 EU 27 energy expenditure per Gross Domestic Product (USD / GDP) SOCIAL Severe Accidents Risk from severe accidents Average Number of Fatalities Cumulated expected number of fatalities from severe (≥5 fatalities) accidents worldwide in fossil (coal, oil, gas), hydro and nuclear energy chains (fatalities / year) Consequences of Worst Accident Maximum fatalities from severe (≥5 fatalities) accidents worldwide in fossil (coal, oil, gas), hydro and nuclear energy chains (Fatalities Oil Spills Oil spill risk is assumed to scale linearly with the amounts of oil used, so the indicator scales with the amount of oil used globally (Mt) Terrorism Risk Cumulated terrorism risk for EU 27, based on attack scenarios for a European Pressurized Reactor (EPR), hydropower dam, refinery and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Terminal (fatalities) SECURITY OF SUPPLY Diversity EU 27 Consumption Shannon-Wiener diversity index of EU 27 gross inland energy consumption (Mtoe) for the different energy carriers (Factor) Share of energy imports EU 27 Ratio of Primary Production (Mtoe) / Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe) in EU 27 (Factor) Diversity of Resources Shannon-Wiener diversity index of net exporters from 23 world regions in oil, gas and coal markets Diversity World Oil Market Shannon-Wiener diversity index of net oil exporters (Mtoe) from 23 world regions in POLES (Factor Diversity World Gas Market Shannon-Wiener diversity index of net gas exporters from 23 world regions in POLES (Factor) Diversity World Coal Market Shannon-Wiener diversity index of net coal exporters from 23 world regions in POLES (Factor) Source:Eckleetal.(2011)
  • 12. Indicator Hierarchy Page 12 Source:Eckleetal.(2011) • Weighted Sum Algorithm: transparent and simple way to calculate ranking. • Weights w1 to wm are multiplied with respective rescaled indicators (sij) and summed up for each alternative. • Alternatives are then ranked and the higher the value, the better it performs.
  • 13. • Among basic scenarios, performance increases with more stringent CO2-policies. • Nuclear shock scenarios are worse than related basic scenarios, CCS shock scenarios are about the same, and price shock scenarios perform better. Equal Weighting Case Page 13 Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
  • 14. Environmentally-Centered Case Page 14 • Unsurprisingly, scenario performance increases with more stringent CO2-policies. • The price shock scenarios perform well, whereas failure of CCS and nuclear accident scenarios perform badly. Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
  • 15. Economy-Centered Case Page 15 • This profile favors scenarios with no or weak CO2-policies. • FT scenarios with shocks perform worst because they lead to a high output of the then expensive CO2. Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
  • 16. Socially-Centered Case Page 16 • This profile favors scenarios with reduced use of fossil, i.e. FT and fossil fuel price shock scenarios. Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
  • 17. Security of Supply Centered Case Page 17 • Scenarios with no or weak CO2-policies perform worst. • The reason is the larger share of fossil energy use in this case. • Import dependence decreases with progressively stronger CO2-policies. Source:Burgherretal.(2016)
  • 18.  No single scenario meets all sustainability and security of supply criteria used in SECURE; thus, trade-offs are inevitable.  Given balance between environmental, economic, social and security of supply criteria, the global regime climate regime scenarios (without shocks) perform best while the baseline scenario is consequently worst.  This result is with two exceptions quite stable with respect to the variations of preferences: - Economy-centered profiles. - Aversion towards worst consequences of severe accidents.  Under the assumptions made in the SECURE project the global regime scenarios are highly vulnerable to shocks in form of a very severe nuclear accident and/or failure to implement carbon capture and storage on a large scale.  There are clear synergies between protection of climate and security of supply. Meeting ambitious GHG-emission reduction goals by means of successful de- carbonization of the energy supply system through expansion of renewables, nuclear and CCS, combined with very extensive efficiency improvements, is also highly beneficial for security of supply. Conclusions Page 18
  • 19. Page 19 Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen Thank you for your attention! Questions? Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis (LEA) Technology Assessment Group (TAG) http://www.psi.ch/ta peter.burgherr@psi.ch