The document discusses factors that increase disaster vulnerability in Sierra Leone and may impact its economic sustainability following the Ebola outbreak. It analyzes 77 sources to identify key themes like education, poverty, health, corruption, and economic impacts. Sierra Leone has experienced civil conflict, epidemics, floods, landslides and other natural disasters. Poverty is widespread, hampering disaster resilience and economic growth. The analysis found correlations between these issues and calls for integrated disaster risk management and strengthened cooperation between organizations working in Sierra Leone.
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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
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Disasters and Long Term Economic Sustainability A Perspective on Sierra Leone, Barlu DUMBUYA
1. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Disasters and Long Term
Sustainability: A Perspective on
Sierra Leone
Barlu Dumbuya, Niru Nirupama
York University
Canada
2. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Objective
• To understand and identify underlying factors that increase
disaster vulnerability that will impact Sierra Leone’s economic
sustainability in the post Ebola period.
3. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Sierra Leone
• Population
5.9 million
• Urban population (%)
38.4%
• Population living in poverty
76.1%
• Life expectancy in years
47 years
4. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Historical and Ongoing Disasters in Sierra Leone
• Manmade: civil conflict
• Biophysical: Cholera, Ebola
• Hydrometeorological hazards: Flooding, Landslides,
mudslides, rockfalls, tropical storms
5. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
The Civil Conflict – 1991 - 2001
Source: Dowd and Raleigh 2012)
6. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Biophysical Disasters
3000
953
24
2000 1770
3094
134 0 3 90
633
1746
23009
5682
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1985 1996 1997 1997 1998 1999 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2008 2012 2014
Deaths
Affected
Epidemics caused by, both viral and bacterial diseases in Sierra Leone since 1985 (based on
OECD data)
7. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
2014 Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak
8. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Hydrometeorological hazards: 2005 to 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Flood Landslide Storms Wildfire
Numberofdisasters
Number of occurrences of natural disasters in Sierra Leone between 1975 to present
9. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Recent floods in Sierra Leone
10. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Recent flood in Sierra Leone
11. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Roads submerged by floods
12. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Landslide
13. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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Composition of revenue in the post conflict period
Source:
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Real GDP growth rates, 2005-2015
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
(e)
2014
(p)
2015
(p)
RealGDPGrowthRates
Source: AfDB Statistics Department, various domestic authorities and AfDB; (e) estimates and (p)
projections
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Economic Impact
• Agriculture
– 20% of Ebola cases were farmers
– Farming plots abandoned
• Foreign investment
– Companies shutdown
• Service industry
– hospitality
– Tourism
– Trade
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International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
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GDP Growth Rates by economic activity percentage
change
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2005 2010 2015
GDPgrowthrate
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Industry (Mining, Quarying,
Manufacturing, electricity,
construction)
Services (Trade, Tourism,
Transportation, Finance,
Fincancial Intermediation Services
Indirectly Measured
Total value added at basic prices
Taxes less subsidies on products
Gross domestic product at market
prices
Annual growth rate
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Research Methodology
• Literature review (77 articles)
– Government
– Non-governmental organizations
– Multilateral agencies
– Scholarly Articles
– Media
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Analysis
• Top ranked themes/factors that impacts economic
sustainability and disaster resilience
– Education
– Poverty
– Sustainability
– Public Health
– Corruption
– Ebola Recovery
– Unemployment
– Aid
– Economic impact
– Disaster risk
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20. 6th
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Themes
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Observations
• Correlation between source category and the nature and type
of institution.
• Education ranked either first or second for each category
• Poverty and Education ranked in the first five for all categories
• Poverty, Education and Governance ranked in the first 5 for
four categories.
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Poignant Quotes from the material analysed
• Disaster Risk
– “In general terms, the countries have limited capacity and mechanisms
for disaster risk management”
– “The countries need support to develop an early warning system that
enables the health sector to more quickly recognize and respond to
hazards. This should be complemented by developing the core
capacities for disaster risk management, which include pre-positioned
infrastructure, surveillance and laboratory capacity to rapidly detect
and respond to emerging outbreaks including, but not limited to, EVD.”
Source: UNDP, The World Bank, European Union, & African Development
Bank. (2015). Recovering from the Ebola Crisis.
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Conclusion
• Years of development aid, yet Sierra Leone is at risk
• Frameworks like HFA creates awareness, not backed with
action
• Correlation between disasters and negative economic impact
– Drop in Sierra Leone’s GDP
• Recent disaster events have made resilience and economic
sustainability a priority
• Disconnect between multilateral agencies and NGOs
• Need for greater cooperation and partnership between
stakeholders
• Integrate disaster risk in development policies
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Questions
Editor's Notes
I am a graduate student in the Disaster and Emergency Management program at York University, Toronto, Canada.
I am interested in social vulnerability, community resilience and capacity building in developing countries.
Most of my research so far is on Sierra Leone.
Did this research with the supervision of Dr. Nirupama, a faculty member at York.
It is good to take a fresh look at Sierra Leone for several reasons
the recent EVD outbreak
10 years now since HFA, now we have a new framework Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction SFDRR
According to the World bank group Sierra Leone $5 billion in aid since it adopted HFA.
Need to examine where SL is with regards to risk reduction and resilience
2014 country profile – three quarters of population multidimensional poor: depraved in health, education and living standards
recent events like the Ebola epidemics is a huge eye opener
Resulted in 70,000 deaths
2.6 million impacted about half the population at the time
Left Critical infrastructure scant and barely functioning
Human capital weak
According to a 2010 UNEP report, SL has been unable to take stock and address the risk and preconditions that fuelled the war
According to the GoSL the Local community, social and productive infrastructure such as markets, stores, rice mills and community service buildings were completely vandalized.
Livestock were almost completely wiped out.
Mining and agriculture were ravaged and abandoned…
Challenges
Complex emergencies
Cholera recent 2012 outbreak
23,124 cases, 299 fatalities
Based on research for a paper I did in 2014, I knew when Ebola started that it would quickly spread through out the country. - 13 districts: except kailahun
Ebola: west Africa experienced 28,616 cases. 11,310 deaths
Sierra Leone 14,124 cases and 3,956 deaths
Flooding an increasing threat in Sierra Leone
Increasing number of floods mostly due to heavy rains.
Attributed to climate change
Flooding affected 200,000 people, killed 166 people
Affects people in low lying areas – mostly informal settlements and slums occupied by the poor in urban cities and impacts agriculture activities in rural areas
Fifteen people died
landslide in the Sierra Leonean capital Freetown
Late evening on Thursday 8 August 2013
destroyed the historic eighteenth century King Jimmy Bridge, a monument to slavery
connects Wallace Johnson Street to the major hospital Connaught
Landslides are a common problem after severe weather events, as excess pore water pressure can overcome cohesion in soil and sediments, allowing them to flow like liquids.
Approximately 90% of all landslides are caused by heavy rainfall
Bauwens, Joe. (2013) Sciency Thoughts: At least fifteen dead following landslide in Freetown, Sierra Leone. Retrieved March 01, 2015, from http://sciencythoughts.blogspot.ca/2013/08/at-least-fifteen-dead-following.html
Sierra Leone is heavily indebted and dependent on external aid.
In 2004, aid was running at US $360 million or 34 percent of GDP and debt was estimated at US $1.6 billion or 205 percent of GDP
10 year Real GDP growth rates for 2005 to 2015
2012 GoSL eased laws and policies to attract foreign investment
So an Increase in production of
Iron ore
Rutile
2015 shows a download trend projected for 2015
Ebola
Severe flooding
decrease in iron ore prices on world market
Foreign investment
Scale down operation
Left skeletal staff behind
Service industry
Domino effect
Look at revenue flow from different sectors of the economy
An in-depth qualitative analysis of 5 source types was used to determine factors that could hinder economic sustainability and disaster resilience especially in light of the recent outbreak.
Govt, NGOs, multilateral agencies have done a lot of work in terms of dollars spent on research, assessments, projects
We looked at their projects, area of work and where they are spending dollars
16 major themes stood out as concerns for hindering sustainability and risk reduction
Socio economic impact
“Beyond the terrible toll in human lives and suffering, the Ebola epidemic currently afflicting West Africa is already having a measurable economic impact in terms of forgone output; higher fiscal deficits; rising prices; lower real household incomes and greater poverty.”
Source: Bulman, T., Calderón, C., Cruz, M., Dessus, S., Foday, Y. B., Go, D., … Over, M. (2014). The economic impact of The 2014 ebola epidemic: Short and Medium Term Estimates for West Africa, 1–71.
Ebola recovery
“The Ebola Recovery Assessment (ERA) identifies four key areas for the international community to assist on: health, water and sanitation; infrastructure and basic services; socio-economic recovery; and peacebuilding.”
Source: Government of Sierra Leone. (2015). NATIONAL Ebola Response Strategy Strategy For Sierra Leone Government
National and local governments
Multilateral agencies
International and local NGOs
Communities
Individuals
Multilateral agencies and NGOs work in silos
Collaborate only when a disaster strikes
(one could say this is a good arrangement to pool resources when it is necessary) ? why shouldn’t things work this way all the time
A multistake holder arrangement would
- ensure that DR is integrated into development polices to reduce risk and increase resileince