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6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Analysis of Long-term Variations of Wind
Speed and Winter Haze in Beijing-
Tianjin-Hebei and their Correlation
Gangfeng Zhang1,3; Peijun Shi1,2,3
1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology
2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of
Education
3.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, MoCA & MoE
Beijing Normal University Beijing, China
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Fog haze days distribution throughout China (2013)
Source:National Climate Centre
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Serious haze pollution in Beijing
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Picture taking at same place in November
Beijing(2015)
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Wind speed change in China(1961-2012)
Sourse: Shi et.al 2015
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Question
• With the rapidly development of economy, China is suffer the
very serious haze pollution in recent year, especially in Beijing-
Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) ,
• At the same time, the overall near surface wind speed is
declining, the wind speed is the key factor for pollution
diffusion,
• So we want to figure out the long term change of wind speed
and winter haze in BTH, and to show their correlation.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Two definition of haze
1.Manual observation
• Haze or fog by meteorologic observer( Song et al.,
2006).
2. Horizontal visibility and atmospheric relative
humidity
• Visibility ≤10km;RH ≤90%(Wu et al., 2006).
• Visibility ≤10km;RH ≤80%(Ding et al., 2014).
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Data
• We use the daily meteorological observation data
(1951-2014) from China Meteorological Administration,
in order to ensure less missing data, we select the
1961-2014 for analysis.
• The social economy data including car number, GDP,
population and energy consumption are from State
Statistics Bureau.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Trend of winter wind speed
in BTH(1961-2014)
Trend of winter haze days
in BTH(1961-2014)
Result
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
winter mean wind speed and number of hazy days in BTH(1961-2014)
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Mono factor analysis of variance
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
• The increase of haze days of BTH in 1961-1981 is may
mainly because of the decrease of wind speed
• The decrease of haze days of BTH in 1981-2005 is may
mainly because of the increase of wind speed
• The wind speed change can’t explain the rapid rise of
haze days in recent 10 years
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
20000000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
days(d)
Haze days Car number
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
GDP(billionyuan)
Hazedays(days)
Haze days GDP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
pupulation
Hazedays
Haze days Population
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
Eneragycomsumption
Hazedays(days)
Haze days Eneragy comsumption
Haze days with car number Haze days with and GDP
Haze days with and car numberHaze days with population
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
• Wind speed is the key factor of diffusion of contaminant
• Human activities (pollutant emission, urbanization etc.)
are the main causes of rapid increase of haze days in
recent year
• Air Quality Model (CMAQ) will be applied to analysis the
influence mechanism of wind speed on haze.
Disscussion
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

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Analysis of Long-term Variations of Wind Speed and Haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and their Correlation, Zhang GANGFENG

  • 1. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Analysis of Long-term Variations of Wind Speed and Winter Haze in Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei and their Correlation Gangfeng Zhang1,3; Peijun Shi1,2,3 1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology 2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education 3.Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, MoCA & MoE Beijing Normal University Beijing, China
  • 2. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Fog haze days distribution throughout China (2013) Source:National Climate Centre
  • 3. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Serious haze pollution in Beijing
  • 4. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Picture taking at same place in November Beijing(2015)
  • 5. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Wind speed change in China(1961-2012) Sourse: Shi et.al 2015
  • 6. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Question • With the rapidly development of economy, China is suffer the very serious haze pollution in recent year, especially in Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) , • At the same time, the overall near surface wind speed is declining, the wind speed is the key factor for pollution diffusion, • So we want to figure out the long term change of wind speed and winter haze in BTH, and to show their correlation.
  • 7. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Two definition of haze 1.Manual observation • Haze or fog by meteorologic observer( Song et al., 2006). 2. Horizontal visibility and atmospheric relative humidity • Visibility ≤10km;RH ≤90%(Wu et al., 2006). • Visibility ≤10km;RH ≤80%(Ding et al., 2014).
  • 8. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Data • We use the daily meteorological observation data (1951-2014) from China Meteorological Administration, in order to ensure less missing data, we select the 1961-2014 for analysis. • The social economy data including car number, GDP, population and energy consumption are from State Statistics Bureau.
  • 9. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Trend of winter wind speed in BTH(1961-2014) Trend of winter haze days in BTH(1961-2014) Result
  • 10. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org winter mean wind speed and number of hazy days in BTH(1961-2014)
  • 11. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Mono factor analysis of variance
  • 12. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org • The increase of haze days of BTH in 1961-1981 is may mainly because of the decrease of wind speed • The decrease of haze days of BTH in 1981-2005 is may mainly because of the increase of wind speed • The wind speed change can’t explain the rapid rise of haze days in recent 10 years
  • 13. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000 12000000 14000000 16000000 18000000 20000000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 days(d) Haze days Car number 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 GDP(billionyuan) Hazedays(days) Haze days GDP 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 pupulation Hazedays Haze days Population 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Eneragycomsumption Hazedays(days) Haze days Eneragy comsumption Haze days with car number Haze days with and GDP Haze days with and car numberHaze days with population
  • 14. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org • Wind speed is the key factor of diffusion of contaminant • Human activities (pollutant emission, urbanization etc.) are the main causes of rapid increase of haze days in recent year • Air Quality Model (CMAQ) will be applied to analysis the influence mechanism of wind speed on haze. Disscussion
  • 15. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org