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6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Estimating Post-earthquake Shelter Requirements
Annibale Vecere1, Ricardo Monteiro1, Walter J. Ammann2,
1Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia, Italy; 2Global Risk Forum Davos, Switzerland
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Shelter needs assessment methodologies
SYNER-G
HAZUS-MH
ERGO-EQ
MCEER
InaSAFE
RiskScape
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
SYNER-G Shelter model - Conceptual framework
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
HAZUS-MH - Conceptual framework
Social losses
Shelters (Income, Ethnicity, Age, Ownership)
Displaced Households
Based (only) on Physical Damage
Direct Physical Damage
General Building Stock
Potential Earth Science Hazards
Ground Motion Ground Failure
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
ERGO-EQ - Conceptual framework
Hazard definition
Building structural and content damage
Modified
HAZUS
Logistic
Regression
Household & Population dislocation
OLS through
the origin
Short-term Shelter Needs
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
MCEER - Conceptual framework
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
InaSAFE - Conceptual framework
Threshold limit for the
calculated level of damage,
under imposed hazard
Number of people in
need of evacuation
Calculation of shelter
needs requirements
(Indonesian policy)
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
RiskScape - Conceptual framework
Fragility functions
providing a
measure of human
displacement
Displacement
Duration
Evacuation
Decision
Variable value Human displacement Decision
0 None
No or minimal evacuation
necessary (less than one
day).
1 One day to one week
Evacuation necessary but
reoccupation possible after
less than a week
2 One week to one month
Evacuation necessary and
reoccupation not possible
for between a week and a
month.
3 One month to six months
Evacuation necessary and
reoccupation not possible
for between one and six
months.
4 Greater than six months
Evacuation necessary and
reoccupation not possible
for more than six months
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Parameters included in
population dislocation and/or
shelter needs calculation
SYNER-
G
HAZUS-
MH
ERGO-
EQ
MCEER INASAFE RISKSCAPE
Building Structural Damage
(Building Usability)
     
Age    
Income    
Ethnicity    
Household Tenure    
Utility Loss    
Weather Conditions   
Housing Type  
Car Ownership  
Distance to Shelter  
Perceived Security 
Enforced Evacuation Area 
Education 
Direct economic Damage 
Neighbourhood condition 
Fire, inundation and other
hazardous materials

Results and Discussion
Output produced by
investigated models
SYNER-
G
HAZUS-
MH
ERGO-
EQ
MCEER INASAFE RISKSCAPE
Population dislocation by tract
(or smallest statistical unit
available)
   
Population dislocation by
dwelling units
 
Population dislocation by study
area

Time frame of human
displacement

Public shelter needs    
Shelter needs requirements  
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Future Developments
• Adaptable models tailored to the specific context
and optional variables that will be able to fine
tune the social components of the estimate.
• Identification and calibration of other relevant
social and cultural location-specific parameters.
• Inclusion of this type of variables already in the
estimation of displaced people (e.g. SYNER-G,
MCEER and ERGO-EQ).
• Reduction of the uncertainty related to building
damage analysis outputs by using actual building
damage observation (for example, by inferring it
from building tagging system).
Thank you for your kind attention!

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Estimating Post-Earthquake Shelter Requirements, Annibale VECERE

  • 1. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Estimating Post-earthquake Shelter Requirements Annibale Vecere1, Ricardo Monteiro1, Walter J. Ammann2, 1Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia, Italy; 2Global Risk Forum Davos, Switzerland
  • 2. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Shelter needs assessment methodologies SYNER-G HAZUS-MH ERGO-EQ MCEER InaSAFE RiskScape
  • 3. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org SYNER-G Shelter model - Conceptual framework
  • 4. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org HAZUS-MH - Conceptual framework Social losses Shelters (Income, Ethnicity, Age, Ownership) Displaced Households Based (only) on Physical Damage Direct Physical Damage General Building Stock Potential Earth Science Hazards Ground Motion Ground Failure
  • 5. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org ERGO-EQ - Conceptual framework Hazard definition Building structural and content damage Modified HAZUS Logistic Regression Household & Population dislocation OLS through the origin Short-term Shelter Needs
  • 6. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org MCEER - Conceptual framework
  • 7. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org InaSAFE - Conceptual framework Threshold limit for the calculated level of damage, under imposed hazard Number of people in need of evacuation Calculation of shelter needs requirements (Indonesian policy)
  • 8. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org RiskScape - Conceptual framework Fragility functions providing a measure of human displacement Displacement Duration Evacuation Decision Variable value Human displacement Decision 0 None No or minimal evacuation necessary (less than one day). 1 One day to one week Evacuation necessary but reoccupation possible after less than a week 2 One week to one month Evacuation necessary and reoccupation not possible for between a week and a month. 3 One month to six months Evacuation necessary and reoccupation not possible for between one and six months. 4 Greater than six months Evacuation necessary and reoccupation not possible for more than six months
  • 9. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Parameters included in population dislocation and/or shelter needs calculation SYNER- G HAZUS- MH ERGO- EQ MCEER INASAFE RISKSCAPE Building Structural Damage (Building Usability)       Age     Income     Ethnicity     Household Tenure     Utility Loss     Weather Conditions    Housing Type   Car Ownership   Distance to Shelter   Perceived Security  Enforced Evacuation Area  Education  Direct economic Damage  Neighbourhood condition  Fire, inundation and other hazardous materials  Results and Discussion Output produced by investigated models SYNER- G HAZUS- MH ERGO- EQ MCEER INASAFE RISKSCAPE Population dislocation by tract (or smallest statistical unit available)     Population dislocation by dwelling units   Population dislocation by study area  Time frame of human displacement  Public shelter needs     Shelter needs requirements  
  • 10. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Future Developments • Adaptable models tailored to the specific context and optional variables that will be able to fine tune the social components of the estimate. • Identification and calibration of other relevant social and cultural location-specific parameters. • Inclusion of this type of variables already in the estimation of displaced people (e.g. SYNER-G, MCEER and ERGO-EQ). • Reduction of the uncertainty related to building damage analysis outputs by using actual building damage observation (for example, by inferring it from building tagging system).
  • 11. Thank you for your kind attention!