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6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Climate change impacts at the Household
Level Food Security in the Mountainous
Region of Nepal
Shobha POUDEL, Shinya FUNAKAWA, Hitoshi SHINJO,
Kyoto University, JAPAN
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
 Background
 Research objectives
 Data and Method
 Study Area-
- Lamjung District, Nepal
 Results and findings
 Conclusion
Contents
Kunchha VDC landscape, Lamjung, Nepal
Khudi VDC landscape, Lamjung, Nepal
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Climate change evidence in Nepal
Food security situation of Nepal
 Avg. temp. increased (1977-2000) - 0.06oC/yr
 Terai- 0.04oC year-1 and Himalayas - 0.08oC/yr
 Warming rate
- higher at the higher altitude.
 More Frequent warm days fewer cool days
 Unpredicted and untimely heavy rainfall
 Prolonged winter drought
 Mosquitoes found up to 2100 m altitude
in mid-hills (Lamjung) (previously 1000 m)
 Appearance of fungi and insect outburst at
greater altitude.
 Loss of biodiversity and appearance of new
species at greater altitude
 Quality decrease in agricultural products
Mishra et.al 2014
 Only 49% of the households are
food secure and has access to food
throughout a year.
 33 out of 75 districts were
estimated to be food deficit in
2013. Ghimire 2014
 Rice yield reduced by 12.5% in 2006 and
productivity reduced to 2.7 metric
tonnes/ha in 2009 from 2.91 in 2008 at
national basis due to drought. (MoAC, 2010)
 In the Eastern region of Nepal rice
production reduced by 30% and 9.6 % of
agri- land left fallow in 2006 (Regmi, 2007)
Changes in Crop production
Malla, 2008
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
 To provide recommendation for policy makers to mitigate
the impact of climate change on food security of local
people
Rice ready to harvest in KunchhaSprinkle irrigation for garlic in Khudi VDC Local vegetable shop in Lamjung Local man collecting cooking fuel
 To understand local people perception of climate change
 To find the underlying causes of changes in food availability,
accessibility, utilization
 To understand changes in daily activities of the local people
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Lamjung district at glance
Area - 1692km2
Population – 167, 724 (Census 2011)
Visible climate change issues
Highly vulnerable in climate change issues (MoE, 2010)
Fig. 1 Map of Lamjung district
Studied three village development committees
(VDCs) are:
 Kunchha VDC
 Khudi VDC
 Ilampokhari VDC
Lamjung
Source: www.visitnepal.com
Fig. 2 Map of Nepal in Asia
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Household questionnaire survey :
-Total 150 Households were selected from three village development
committees (VDCs) based on the hydrology and meteorology stations.
Participatory and qualitative research methods:
- Three focus group discussion (FGDs) in 3 villages and 1 workshop in
district headquarter with different stakeholders
- Key informant`s interviews (KIIs)
- Participant observation
During field visit, household questionnaire survey and workshop in Lamjung
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Perception about climate change
 Around 34% of the households did not know what climate change means.
 They could recognize changes in temperature, rainfall pattern, natural
disasters, since last 20 years.
Fig. 4 Percentages of respondents noticed the changes in the last 20 years
0
20
40
60
80
100
%ofrespondents
Source: Poudel and Shaw 2016
In Lamjung district
 Maximum Temperature increased (1980-2012) = 0.02oC year-1
 Minimum Temperature increased (1980-2012) = 0.07o Cyear-1
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Extent of changes in food production Reasons behind increased food production
Increased
Decreased
Unchanged
60%
15%
25%
0
20
40
60
80
100
%ofrespondents
0
20
40
60
80
100
Climate
change
Fallow land Less
priority to
Agriculture
Lack of
manpower
Others
%ofrespondents
Reasons behind decreased food production
Top 3 reasons ranked by respondents:
Increased production
1. Introduction of new seed
2. Use of fertilizers
3. Irrigation facility
And
Decreased production
1. Climate change
2. Fallow land
3. Less priority to agriculture
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Extent of changes in food availability
Reasons behind changes in food availability
0
20
40
60
80
100
Increased Decreased Unchanged
Kunchha
Khudi
Ilampokhari
Food availability
%ofrespondents
Fig. 5 Percentage of respondents on changes in food availability in Kunchha, Khudi and Ilampokhari VDCs of Lamjung
Reasons of changes in Food availability % of respondents
% of respondents about role of Climate change
Yes No
Crop production increased 46 44 56
Crop production decreased 30 90 10
Income increased 75 8 92
Income decreased 5 50 50
Dairy products increased 42 10 90
Dairy products decreased 20 64 36
Food prices increased 63 41 59
Other households burdens increased 14 60 40
Other households burdens decreased 37 0 100
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Extent of changes in food accessibility
Increased
Decreased
Unchanged
50%
48%
2% Food accessibility increased due to
 Increased access and development of road infrastructure
 Expansion of nearer local marketChanges in daily activities
Extent of changes in food consumption pattern
Changes in daily activities
% of
respondents
% of respondents about role of Climate change
Yes No
Time increased to collect and process food (from
seedling to harvesting 47 98 2
Time decreased to collect and process food (from
seedling to harvesting 39 6 94
Time increased to earn money 35 86 14
Time decreased to earn money 36 0 100
Time increased to collect fodder for livestock 46 81 19
Time decreased to collect fodder for livestock 33 10 90
Time increased to collect cooking fuel 36 67 33
Time decreased to collect cooking fuel 40 6 94
Time increased to collect water 6 86 14
Time decreased to collect water 71 3 97
Improved
Deteriorated
Unchanged
70%
27%
3%
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
 Though mountainous households were not much aware of the term ``climate change``, they
could experience and noticed that something has changed for last few years and, it affects on
their daily activities and food security.
 Local communities already started few coping strategies to combat with the changing climate
by changing profession and agricultural pattern such as food crop to cash crop.
 The overall food security of Khudi households` was deteriorated in comparison with
Ilampokhari and Khunchha for last twenty years due to decreased income, decreased crop
production and deteriorated food consumption pattern.
 However, most of the respondents reported there is not a direct impact of climate change on
food availability, 47% of the respondents from Khudi VDC claimed impact of climate change
on decreased food availability.
 National programs and policies are needed to strengthen the resilience of the people and
minimize the loss and damage.
 Therefore, policy makers need to address the problems, expectations and potentials of local
communities to minimize the risk of food insecurity amidst of changing climate.
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Thank you for your kind attention.
View of Annapurna range from Ghalegaun(2100 masl), Lamjung
Dhanyabad

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Climate Change Impacts at the Household Level Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal, Shobha POUDEL

  • 1. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Climate change impacts at the Household Level Food Security in the Mountainous Region of Nepal Shobha POUDEL, Shinya FUNAKAWA, Hitoshi SHINJO, Kyoto University, JAPAN
  • 2. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org  Background  Research objectives  Data and Method  Study Area- - Lamjung District, Nepal  Results and findings  Conclusion Contents Kunchha VDC landscape, Lamjung, Nepal Khudi VDC landscape, Lamjung, Nepal
  • 3. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Climate change evidence in Nepal Food security situation of Nepal  Avg. temp. increased (1977-2000) - 0.06oC/yr  Terai- 0.04oC year-1 and Himalayas - 0.08oC/yr  Warming rate - higher at the higher altitude.  More Frequent warm days fewer cool days  Unpredicted and untimely heavy rainfall  Prolonged winter drought  Mosquitoes found up to 2100 m altitude in mid-hills (Lamjung) (previously 1000 m)  Appearance of fungi and insect outburst at greater altitude.  Loss of biodiversity and appearance of new species at greater altitude  Quality decrease in agricultural products Mishra et.al 2014  Only 49% of the households are food secure and has access to food throughout a year.  33 out of 75 districts were estimated to be food deficit in 2013. Ghimire 2014  Rice yield reduced by 12.5% in 2006 and productivity reduced to 2.7 metric tonnes/ha in 2009 from 2.91 in 2008 at national basis due to drought. (MoAC, 2010)  In the Eastern region of Nepal rice production reduced by 30% and 9.6 % of agri- land left fallow in 2006 (Regmi, 2007) Changes in Crop production Malla, 2008
  • 4. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org  To provide recommendation for policy makers to mitigate the impact of climate change on food security of local people Rice ready to harvest in KunchhaSprinkle irrigation for garlic in Khudi VDC Local vegetable shop in Lamjung Local man collecting cooking fuel  To understand local people perception of climate change  To find the underlying causes of changes in food availability, accessibility, utilization  To understand changes in daily activities of the local people
  • 5. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Lamjung district at glance Area - 1692km2 Population – 167, 724 (Census 2011) Visible climate change issues Highly vulnerable in climate change issues (MoE, 2010) Fig. 1 Map of Lamjung district Studied three village development committees (VDCs) are:  Kunchha VDC  Khudi VDC  Ilampokhari VDC Lamjung Source: www.visitnepal.com Fig. 2 Map of Nepal in Asia
  • 6. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Household questionnaire survey : -Total 150 Households were selected from three village development committees (VDCs) based on the hydrology and meteorology stations. Participatory and qualitative research methods: - Three focus group discussion (FGDs) in 3 villages and 1 workshop in district headquarter with different stakeholders - Key informant`s interviews (KIIs) - Participant observation During field visit, household questionnaire survey and workshop in Lamjung
  • 7. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Perception about climate change  Around 34% of the households did not know what climate change means.  They could recognize changes in temperature, rainfall pattern, natural disasters, since last 20 years. Fig. 4 Percentages of respondents noticed the changes in the last 20 years 0 20 40 60 80 100 %ofrespondents Source: Poudel and Shaw 2016 In Lamjung district  Maximum Temperature increased (1980-2012) = 0.02oC year-1  Minimum Temperature increased (1980-2012) = 0.07o Cyear-1
  • 8. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Extent of changes in food production Reasons behind increased food production Increased Decreased Unchanged 60% 15% 25% 0 20 40 60 80 100 %ofrespondents 0 20 40 60 80 100 Climate change Fallow land Less priority to Agriculture Lack of manpower Others %ofrespondents Reasons behind decreased food production Top 3 reasons ranked by respondents: Increased production 1. Introduction of new seed 2. Use of fertilizers 3. Irrigation facility And Decreased production 1. Climate change 2. Fallow land 3. Less priority to agriculture
  • 9. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Extent of changes in food availability Reasons behind changes in food availability 0 20 40 60 80 100 Increased Decreased Unchanged Kunchha Khudi Ilampokhari Food availability %ofrespondents Fig. 5 Percentage of respondents on changes in food availability in Kunchha, Khudi and Ilampokhari VDCs of Lamjung Reasons of changes in Food availability % of respondents % of respondents about role of Climate change Yes No Crop production increased 46 44 56 Crop production decreased 30 90 10 Income increased 75 8 92 Income decreased 5 50 50 Dairy products increased 42 10 90 Dairy products decreased 20 64 36 Food prices increased 63 41 59 Other households burdens increased 14 60 40 Other households burdens decreased 37 0 100
  • 10. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Extent of changes in food accessibility Increased Decreased Unchanged 50% 48% 2% Food accessibility increased due to  Increased access and development of road infrastructure  Expansion of nearer local marketChanges in daily activities Extent of changes in food consumption pattern Changes in daily activities % of respondents % of respondents about role of Climate change Yes No Time increased to collect and process food (from seedling to harvesting 47 98 2 Time decreased to collect and process food (from seedling to harvesting 39 6 94 Time increased to earn money 35 86 14 Time decreased to earn money 36 0 100 Time increased to collect fodder for livestock 46 81 19 Time decreased to collect fodder for livestock 33 10 90 Time increased to collect cooking fuel 36 67 33 Time decreased to collect cooking fuel 40 6 94 Time increased to collect water 6 86 14 Time decreased to collect water 71 3 97 Improved Deteriorated Unchanged 70% 27% 3%
  • 11. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org  Though mountainous households were not much aware of the term ``climate change``, they could experience and noticed that something has changed for last few years and, it affects on their daily activities and food security.  Local communities already started few coping strategies to combat with the changing climate by changing profession and agricultural pattern such as food crop to cash crop.  The overall food security of Khudi households` was deteriorated in comparison with Ilampokhari and Khunchha for last twenty years due to decreased income, decreased crop production and deteriorated food consumption pattern.  However, most of the respondents reported there is not a direct impact of climate change on food availability, 47% of the respondents from Khudi VDC claimed impact of climate change on decreased food availability.  National programs and policies are needed to strengthen the resilience of the people and minimize the loss and damage.  Therefore, policy makers need to address the problems, expectations and potentials of local communities to minimize the risk of food insecurity amidst of changing climate.
  • 12. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Thank you for your kind attention. View of Annapurna range from Ghalegaun(2100 masl), Lamjung Dhanyabad

Editor's Notes

  1. Thank you chair, Good morning ladies and gentlemen, This is Shobha Poudel, currently working as a doctoral degree student at Kyoto University Japan. Today, I am going to present about climate change impacts at the household level food security in the mountainous region of Nepal.
  2. I would briefly describe the research background followed by research objectives, data and method, results and findings later.
  3. Though Climate change is a global phenomena, it impacts locally. Let me to point out the some evidences of climate change in Nepal.
  4. Temperature increased 97 Less rainfall in winter 78 Frequency of Natural disasters 29 Emergence of Insects 39Changes of rainy season 29 Cold winter 2 More intense rainfall in summer 19
  5. Production Increased (reasons) % of HHs Use of fertilizers 78 Introduction of new seeds 89 Irrigation facility 81 Use of agro equipments 67 Others 62 Production Decreased (reasons) % of HHs Climate change 58 Fallow land 37 Less priority to Agriculture 44 Lack of manpower 53 Others 81
  6.   Kunchha Khudi Ilampokhari Increased 48 22 32 Decreased 12 24 0 Unchanged 40 54 68