Afghanistan Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment, cost benefit analysis and resilient design recommendations, James GLOVER
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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
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Afghanistan Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment, cost benefit analysis and resilient design recommendations, James GLOVER
- 1. AFGHANISTAN MULTI-HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT, COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS AND RESILIENT DESIGN RECOMMENDATIONS IDRC 2016 www.grforum.org CONTACT INFORMATION Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Promenade 35 CH-7270 Davos Phone: +41 (0) 81 414 1600 Fax: +41 (0) 81 414 1610 info@grforum.org www.grforum.org James Glover, Marc Stal and Walter Ammann Global Risk Forum, GRF Davos James.glover@grforum.org
- 2. OBJECTIVES & PARTNERS a) Produce risk (flood, landslide, avalanche, earthquake, drought) assessment and hazard mappings to inform and prioritize government development strategy and planning; b) Cost/benefit analysis of selected options to reduce existing risks and prevent future risks; c) Based on this mapping, preliminary identification of risk reduction investments, targeting initially the Bank/ARTF portfolio. This will require a gradual roll out of the risk assessment to different sectors and projects. Several projects have already been identified as potential pilots; d) Outreach to government and development partners to ensure wide knowledge of the risk assessment and data platform
- 3. RISK ANALYSIS RISK HAZARD EXPOSURE VULNERABILITY • Hazards Probability and magnitude of natural disaster • Exposure Assets and population at risk • Vulnerability Exposure losses if hazard event occurs
- 4. SIX PERILS ASSESSED floods landslides avalanches droughts Rock fall earth quakes
- 5. DATA FOR EXPOSURE AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT Residential land-use Industrial/ commercial land-use GIS Analysis Population Locations of - Schools - Roads - Power plants - Airports - Bridges Tabular output p10 …. p20 …. p50 …. … …. Hazard maps Damage maps
- 6. FLASH FLOOD SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPS
- 7. percentage deficit agriculture; mean 0 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 - 70 70 - 80 80 - 90 90 - 100 DROUGHT RISK ANALYSIS percentage deficit agriculture; return period 100 years 0 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 50 - 60 60 - 70 70 - 80 80 - 90 90 - 100 10 0 10 1 10 2 10 3 300 350 400 450 500 550 return period [years] watershortage[Mm3/year] Basin =Hel | Nodename =AdraskanHarutRiverUsZone1 | Demand =610Mm^3 data Fit
- 8. LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAPS DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL (SRTM, 30 m) LITHOLOGY LAND COVER MAP SLOPE MAP LANDSLIDE INVENTORY LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY SOURCE AREAS
- 9. LOCAL SCALE (KABUL) LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY
- 10. EARTHQUAKES CEDIM Numerous earthquakes over the last 20 years causing destruction and over 10,000 fatalities. 1998 – Feb. and May – ca. 7,000-10,000 deaths ca. $155m (2015) 2002 – 2 quakes in March – ca. 1350 deaths ca. $70m (2015) 2015 – October Quake – ca. 120 deaths; 140000 people in need Ca. $200m estimated
- 11. RISK ANALYSIS FOR EARTHQUAKES RISK Hazard 1505 Kabul again?
- 12. AVALANCHES Salang pass, Afghanistan Vallé de la Sion, Switzerland
- 13. MODELLING SNOW AVALANCHES • Detailed Terrain model 5 m resolution • Meteo data and snow cover properties Major challenge • Avalanche dynamics calibrated to past avalanche events Panjshir (2015).
- 15. SNOW COVER FROM GCM DATA Snow fall data provided from general climate model runs performed for the flood risk working package.
- 16. AVALANCHE MODELLING The avalanche model and assistance in modelling was provided by SLF Davos, and the RAMMS program. Contact : ramms@slf.ch
- 17. NATIONWIDE AVALANCHE MODELLING • Modelling parameters selected for a 100 year avalanche event. • Calibration of model to Panjshir avalanches (Chabot & Habibi, 2015). • National map of avalanche release areas and runout zones. Avalanche release area identification Settlement
- 18. ONLINE GEO-NODE DATA PLATFORM
- 19. • Examples of possible avalanche modelling applications. • Dimensioning possible avalanche mitigation structures: Embankments, Avalanche barriers, Controlled release • Retention capacity and impact pressures can be computed. Salang Tunnel entrance Example simulations Dam DETAILED AVALANCHE MODELLING
- 20. MANY THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION CONTACT INFORMATION Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Promenade 35 CH-7270 Davos Phone: +41 (0) 81 414 1600 Fax: +41 (0) 81 414 1610 info@grforum.org www.grforum.org info@grforum.org
Editor's Notes
- Figure 1 shows expected annual water shortage for agriculture, Fig 2 the water shortage with a return period of 100 years/. Note that water shortage in one subbasin is independent from that in other basins; these shortages don’t necessarily occur simultaneously
- R1: Moderate R2: Medium R3: High R4: Very High
- Introduction slides. Earthquakes are the most damaging natural disaster type in Afghanistan with significant numbers of deaths seen over the last 20 years. The earthquakes including the October 26 Quake during this project have shown the vulnerability of building stock in Afghanistan.
- When examining the probabilistic risk of earthquakes in this project, 3 components were required. A hazard analysis combining historical earthquake catalogues, ground motion modelling and intensity mapping of historical events. Here the 1505 Kabul earthquake as well as numerous deadly events since 1900 were of interest. In terms of exposure, the building typologies from census data were assigned to various masonry, adobe and concrete classes, which were then spatially distributed. The vulnerability functions were calibrated to the observed losses in recent historic events, to create the risk model.
- it shows a back calculated avalanche of the Panjshir avalanches recorded by Chabot and Habibi in 2015. So the simulation you see acutally occured as areal avalanche and destroyed the settlements indicated in the slide. These analyses were used to assist in the model parameter selection for the nationwide avalanche modelling. a dynamic avalanche model so it is modelling avalanche flow, thus from the results you can obtain: Avalanche velocity Avalanche flow height Avalanche impact pressure (Important for assessing damage potential, and dimensioning mitigation structures used to retain or deflect avalanches, even buildings)
- is simply an example of what is possible with the model and we do not suggest that this particular choice of mitigation stratergy to protect the tunnel entrance should be followed. For that we would need a far more in depth study to confirm this. But it is included just to show what is possible with the model. Perhaps mention the requirement of good meteo and snow data to improve the modelling. This is important not only for the quality of the modelling but also when mitigation measures are implimented. A lot of improvements to avalanche saftey can be made by simply monitoring the snow and weather situation throughtout the winter.