6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland

1. 2010级博士论文开题答辩
The Impact of Meteorological
Disasters on the Economic Growth
Presenter: yingzr@fonmail.com
Author:Zhuorong YING. Peijun SHI
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, BeiJing Normal
University

2. Content
1. Introduction & Background
2. Data & Method
3. Software System Design
4. Result
5. Conclusion & Discussion

3. Introduction&Background
 China is one of the countries suffering from natural disasters in the world, In the last
15 years in China, the average annual affected people reach about 3 billion,direct
economic losses about 2000 billion Yuan
 losses due to meteorological disasters account for about 70% or more. China is not
only the largest developing country in the world, but also a natural disaster prone
country.

4. Introduction&Background
type frequency death affect loss（100 million dollars）
drought 34 3503534 490274000 260.1
heat wave 6 28 4165472 0
cold wave 4 28 4165472 3.1
flood 93 2256525 204365229 186.4
landslide 68 5889 2247214 18.6
storm 198 171918 439894671 612.0
cold winter 3 145 77050650 214.3
1900-2016 meteorological disaster of China
Source ：Em-dat. (http://www.emdat.be/)

5. Introduction&Background
Source :Yearbook of meteorological disasters in China
Direct economic losses of China
realitive

6. Introduction&Background
Affected people in China Affected people in China
relative
Source :Yearbook of meteorological disasters in China
total affected people

7. Introduction&Background
death people in China
Death people in China
relative
Source :Yearbook of meteorological disasters in China
total death people

8. Introduction&Background
R² = 0.7139
R² = 0.3358
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2004年 2005年 2006年 2007年 2008年 2009年 2010年 2011年 2012年 2013年
直接经济损失（万元） 灾损率（%）direct economic losses(ten
thousound RMB)
directly economic
loss/GDP

9. Data&Method
data come from the “Yearbook of meteorological disasters in China”, the variables
of losses caused by meteorological disasters include: the dead population, the
affected population and the direct economic losses. The economic data are from
the National Bureau of Statistics of China, including: GDP, population growth
rate, the number of college students in school, the number of medical
personnel, urbanization rate, the premium income, the total population. The
GDP growth rate is calculated based on the deflated GDP data

10. Data&Method
Method：
dependent variable：growth rate of GDP
independent variables： the direct economic losses accounting for the proportion of GDP
(LOSS), the affected population accounting for the proportion of the total population
(VICTIM), fatality numbers accounting for the proportion of the total population
(DEATH).

11. Data&Method
(1) GDP growth rate of last year (GDPGL);
(2) Level of Education (EDU), the number of provincial university and college students
accounting for the proportion of the total population;
(3) The degree of openness (OPEN), the amount of foreign trade accounting for the
proportion of GDP;
(4) The size of the government (GOVT), the proportion of government budget in GDP;
(5) The size of investment (INVEST), the proportion of total investment in GDP;
(6) The proportion of the second industry (SECOND), using the proportion of second
industry in GDP to measure the level of economic development.

12. Data&Method Basic Data
varible sample mean standard
deviation
min max
GDP growth rate（GDPG，%） 310 12.453 2.271 5.4 23.8
Direct economic losses accounting for the proportion of GDP
（LOSS，%）
310 1.460 1.943 0.006 21.256
the affected population accounting for the proportion of the total
population（VICTIM，%）
310 28.404 20.819 0.007 99
Fatality numbers accounting for the proportion of the billion
（DEATH，person）
310 2.246 4.543 0 62.5
Level of Education （EDU，%） 310 1.578 0.663 0.465 3.679
The degree of openness （OPEN，%） 310 38.612 47.755 3.933 197.83
The size of the government （GOVT，%） 310 51.386 101.541 9.761 677.754
The size of investment （INVEST，%） 310 70.311 20.668 26.660 124.959
The proportion of the second industry （SECOND，%） 310 55.126 10.099 24.008 72.213
health service levels（HEALTH，%） 310 0.557 0.180 0.231 1.243
traffic conditions (ROAD，ten thousand km） 310 11.612 6.900 0.81 30.53
urbanization rate（URS，%）
the premium（INS，%）
310
310
48.75
2.561
14.8
0.883
20
0.631
87
7.129

13. Data&Method
First of all, we study the impact of natural disasters on economic growth, the model is as followed:
GDPGit = α + βdisasterit + γZit + μit + GDPGit-1
The second step, to investigate the impact of meteorological disasters on the economic growth, we set the
model as followed,
GDPGit = α + β(disasterit*Zit)+ γZit + μit + GDPGit-1
In this model, there are cross terms between explanatory variables and disaster variables .Further, the
partial derivative of GDPG to the disaster variable can be obtained using the formula,
d(GDPGit)/d(disasterit) = βZit
Therefore, the coefficient of the cross term can answer the question that we study here, which is whether the
variable Z affects the function of meteorological disasters to the macro economy.

14. Software
Stata 12.0
Panel data(31 province, 10years)
Hausman test
Collinearity diagnostics

15. Result
（1） （3） （5） (2) (4) （6)
LOSS 0.059* 0.0227*
VICTIM 0.0044* 0.0041*
DEATH 0.0258* 0.0064
GDPGL 0.5215** 0.5196** 0.5269** 0.3219*** 0.3265*** 0.3212***
EDU 0.3374* 0.130*** 0.344***
OPEN 0.0107*** 0.036*** 0.010**
GOVT -0.0056* -0.090** -0.055*
INVEST 0.0308** 0.062*** 0.0308***
SECOND 1.5873*** 0.001*** 0.001***
Constant 2.702** 2.5431*** 2.794***
Hausman [0.8624] [0.6222] [0.8229] [0.0001] [0.0000] [0.0001]
R2 0.55 0.53 0.55 0.44 0.45 0.45
Sample size 310 310 310 310 310 310
model Random Random Random Fix Fix Fix
Table 1 Effect of meteorological disasters on GDP growth rate
Note: *,** and *** indicate the significant level at 10, 5, and 1% respectively

16. Result Table 2: analysis of the factors affecting the meteorological disasters
(1) (2)
EDU EDU EDU OPEN OPEN OPEN
EDU 0.15* 0.0314* 0.245* OPEN 0.17 0.26 0.04
Loss 0.0586*** Loss 0.142*
Victim 0.02* Victim 0.021**
Death 0.043* Death 0.01
Cross terms 0.453*** 0.0112* 0.0053* Cross terms 0.644* -0.030 -0.026

17. Result Table 2: analysis of the factors affecting the meteorological disasters
(3) (4)
URS URS URS
HEALTH HEALTH HEALTH
URS
Loss
0.358***
0.0818**
0.336*** 0.339***
HEALTH
Loss
0.5041
0.212
0.3468* 0.3466
Victim 0.0035* Victim 0.00495
Death 0.0324* Death 0.004
Crossterms 0.017** 0.00021*** 0.00034 Crossterms 0.4994 0.00618 0.0024*

18. Result Table 2: analysis of the factors affecting the meteorological disasters
(5) (6)
INS INS INS ROAD ROAD ROAD
INS 0.0344* 0.1639 0.129 ROAD 0.08** 0.09** 0.05***
Loss 0.108 Loss 0.012*
Victim 0.0045* Victim 0.006
Death 0.0079* Death 0.041
Crossterms 0.0729 0.000346 0.00074 Crossterms 0.0069** 0.00017 0.00019*

19. Conclusion&Discussion
Conclusion
Meteorological disasters by the measurement of direct economic losses have
significantly positive effects on economic growth
Meteorological disasters by the measurement of affected population have
significantly positive effects on the economic growth.
Meteorological disasters by the measurement of fatality have significant effect on
economic growth, but not significant after adding explanatory variables

20. Conclusion&Discussion
Conclusion
(1)showing that education has a positive effect on the GDP growth rate
(2) Except for the cross tem with economic losses, the coefficients of the others are not significant.
(3).First, in the test of meteorological disasters measured by direct economic losses and affected people, urbanization rate
has a positive effect on GDP growth and the cross term coefficient is significantly positive
(4) health services are unable to help the region resist meteorological disasters better no matter how the disasters are
measured.
(5) the premium does not have a significant impact on promoting economic growth. Section
(6)presents the results of traffic conditions as cross terms. The cross terms is positive and significant ,showing that the
traffic situation can obviously improve the economic after the disaster,

21. Conclusion&Discussion
Discussion
In short, the losses caused by disasters promote the economic growth, which is different from the
results of NOY, but same as JiongGu, Hong Li , Yiming Wang , this may beattributed to the policies
of China on disaster relief, recovery and reconstruction. China advocates sparing no effort with a
national disaster relief mode . The state grants during the reconstruction period, could stimulate the
economic growth.

22. Conclusion&Discussion
Discussion
In a word, the higher education level, the better enhancement on economic growth. In addition, the
bigger the government, the better the traffic conditions, the higher the rate of urbanization, the
negative effects of natural disasters on economic growth can be increased by a region which is
mainly caused by direct economic losses. And the degree of openness and premium has no
significant promotion to a regional meteorological disaster.

23. Reference
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[4]Xianhua Wu, JiongGu. Does the natural disasters hinder the economic growth? -- empirical research from China
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[5]China Meteorological Administration. China's meteorological disaster yearbook[M]. China meteorological press,
2005-2014.(In Chinese)
[6]http://www.emdat.be//
[7]http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/
[8]Barro R J. Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study[J]. American Journal of
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24. yingzr@foxmail.com