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Risk-informed Urban Planning
Adaptation of the concepts of siting and
design of nuclear power plants towards
more resilient urbanisation
Anton Andonov
Mott MacDonald
https://prezi.com/_7_nno9szbzl/a-contrast-between-the-
kobe-earthquake-and-the-haiti-earthqu/
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘
28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 / Davos / Switzerland
Megacities are global powers
http://imgur.com/
gallery/FZVhxj4
30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
Currently just over half of the world’s
population lives in cities generating
over 80% of the world’s GDP and
consuming 70% of worlds energy
Megacities continue to expand
Courtesyof
skyscrapercity.c
om
30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
Megacities have disappeared in
the past
30/08/2016 Mott MacDonald | Presentation title 4
Current megacities are not precedent in human history
Disappearance of megacities also…
Angkor VatAni
PetraThonis-Heracleion
30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
Yes, but this was in the past
We don’t build cities in hazardous
areas anymore…
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lo
s_Angeles_Aerial_view_2013.jpg
30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov 5
Don’t we?
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lo
s_Angeles_Aerial_view_2013.jpg
6
Los Angeles
St Andreas Fault
30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
Current megacities are at risk
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lo
s_Angeles_Aerial_view_2013.jpg
30/08/2016 Mott MacDonald | Presentation title 7
Most riskiest cities
1. Tokyo - Yokohama
2. Manila
3. Pearl River Delta
4. Osaka-Kobe
5. Jakarta
6. Nagoya
7. Kolkata
8. Shanghai
9. Los Angeles
10. Tehran
Source: Mind the Risk, Swiss RE 2014
Failure of urban planning is in the Top 3
risks for majority of world population
8
Source: Global Risks 2015 | Marsh&MacLennan Companies | Global Economic Forum
30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
Critical infrastructure plays essential
role for megacity resilience
930/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
Critical infrastructure is
interdependent
10
Source: www.resin-cities.eu
11
Is experienced in using hazard mapping
Contemporary urban planning
Source: NPCC, Climate Risk Information 2013;
http://ccrun.org/ccrun_files/attached_files/NPCC%20Climate%20Risk%20Information%202013%20Report%206.11%20version_0.pdf
12
Is experienced in assessing the vulnerability
Contemporary urban planning
Source: Antofogasta Case Study, http://www.geohaz.org/radius/
30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
… but this is rather a passive observation
There are even successful examples of
assessing the risk on urban scale including
number of causalities, economic losses, etc.
Urban planning is mature
enough to move to next step
– design towards predefined
risk level
1330/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
Using the ALARP principle
What is acceptable risk?
14
Ignorance (not resilient)
Or…
Overprotection (not sustainable)
Investment in
resilience can be
based on ALARP
Not knowing the risk leads to…
30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
Nuclear industry is experienced in
design towards predefined risk
level
https://www.kkg.ch/upload/cms/user/KKG_Broschre_E.pdf
30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov 15
Basic concepts in siting and
design of nuclear power
plants
• All external hazards relevant for the
site are defined with probability for
occurrence
• All external hazards are converted
in engineering loads with different
probability of occurrence (intensity)
– OBE, DBE, DEC
• SSCs are classified in safety
classes depending on their safety
significance
• All SSCs are designed for a
particular set of loads and design
criteria depending on their safety
class
• Core Damage Frequency is
calculated for various initiating
events
16
https://www.stralsakerhetsmyndigheten.se/Global/Nyheter/2011/ft-
2011-3787_11.pdf
30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
Probabilistic Risk Analysis
BasicConcepts
inSitingand
DesignofNPPs
IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov 17
Earthquake
River Flood
Extrame Weather
Industrial Accident
Forest Fire
Tsunami
Storm
Risk Informed Design is based on the
principle that risk is a design commodity
as geometry, mass, cost and function.
The intent of Risk Informed Design is to
make informed design trades in
consciously buying down risk by
establishing the relative importance of
risk drivers
What is Risk Informed Design?
• US NRC
advocates the
use of RID in
new plant
designs
• NASA uses RID
for the latest
space
developments
1830/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
Risk Informed Design Workflow
1930/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
Site
Characterisation
&
Hazard Mapping
Classification
of
Infrastructure
Vulnerability of
Infrastructure
Benchmark
with
Tolerable
Risk
Optioneering
Risk is traded with other
design commodities
Resilient City
(+ Sustainable solutions)
Risk
Assessment
Risk Informed Urban Planning
The process
30/08/2016 Mott MacDonald | Presentation title 20
Fukushima NPP
21
Onagawa NPP
It is our responsibility as designers to not allow a natural disaster to evolve to
a man-made disaster
Before and after the Great Tohoku Earthquake – Culture of safety can make or
break a nuclear power plant30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
Thank you and …Questions?
Anton Andonov
Principal Engineer
E
T
W
Anton.andonov@mottmac.com
+359 (0) 2 491 6020
www.mottmac.com
6th
International Disaster and Risk
Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient
Cities‘
28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 / Davos / Switzerland

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Risk-informed Urban Planning, Anton Geogiev ANDONOV

  • 1. Risk-informed Urban Planning Adaptation of the concepts of siting and design of nuclear power plants towards more resilient urbanisation Anton Andonov Mott MacDonald https://prezi.com/_7_nno9szbzl/a-contrast-between-the- kobe-earthquake-and-the-haiti-earthqu/ 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 / Davos / Switzerland
  • 2. Megacities are global powers http://imgur.com/ gallery/FZVhxj4 30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov Currently just over half of the world’s population lives in cities generating over 80% of the world’s GDP and consuming 70% of worlds energy
  • 3. Megacities continue to expand Courtesyof skyscrapercity.c om 30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
  • 4. Megacities have disappeared in the past 30/08/2016 Mott MacDonald | Presentation title 4 Current megacities are not precedent in human history Disappearance of megacities also… Angkor VatAni PetraThonis-Heracleion 30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
  • 5. Yes, but this was in the past We don’t build cities in hazardous areas anymore… https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lo s_Angeles_Aerial_view_2013.jpg 30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov 5
  • 6. Don’t we? https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lo s_Angeles_Aerial_view_2013.jpg 6 Los Angeles St Andreas Fault 30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
  • 7. Current megacities are at risk https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lo s_Angeles_Aerial_view_2013.jpg 30/08/2016 Mott MacDonald | Presentation title 7 Most riskiest cities 1. Tokyo - Yokohama 2. Manila 3. Pearl River Delta 4. Osaka-Kobe 5. Jakarta 6. Nagoya 7. Kolkata 8. Shanghai 9. Los Angeles 10. Tehran Source: Mind the Risk, Swiss RE 2014
  • 8. Failure of urban planning is in the Top 3 risks for majority of world population 8 Source: Global Risks 2015 | Marsh&MacLennan Companies | Global Economic Forum 30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
  • 9. Critical infrastructure plays essential role for megacity resilience 930/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
  • 11. 11 Is experienced in using hazard mapping Contemporary urban planning Source: NPCC, Climate Risk Information 2013; http://ccrun.org/ccrun_files/attached_files/NPCC%20Climate%20Risk%20Information%202013%20Report%206.11%20version_0.pdf
  • 12. 12 Is experienced in assessing the vulnerability Contemporary urban planning Source: Antofogasta Case Study, http://www.geohaz.org/radius/ 30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
  • 13. … but this is rather a passive observation There are even successful examples of assessing the risk on urban scale including number of causalities, economic losses, etc. Urban planning is mature enough to move to next step – design towards predefined risk level 1330/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
  • 14. Using the ALARP principle What is acceptable risk? 14 Ignorance (not resilient) Or… Overprotection (not sustainable) Investment in resilience can be based on ALARP Not knowing the risk leads to… 30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
  • 15. Nuclear industry is experienced in design towards predefined risk level https://www.kkg.ch/upload/cms/user/KKG_Broschre_E.pdf 30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov 15
  • 16. Basic concepts in siting and design of nuclear power plants • All external hazards relevant for the site are defined with probability for occurrence • All external hazards are converted in engineering loads with different probability of occurrence (intensity) – OBE, DBE, DEC • SSCs are classified in safety classes depending on their safety significance • All SSCs are designed for a particular set of loads and design criteria depending on their safety class • Core Damage Frequency is calculated for various initiating events 16 https://www.stralsakerhetsmyndigheten.se/Global/Nyheter/2011/ft- 2011-3787_11.pdf 30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
  • 17. Probabilistic Risk Analysis BasicConcepts inSitingand DesignofNPPs IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov 17 Earthquake River Flood Extrame Weather Industrial Accident Forest Fire Tsunami Storm
  • 18. Risk Informed Design is based on the principle that risk is a design commodity as geometry, mass, cost and function. The intent of Risk Informed Design is to make informed design trades in consciously buying down risk by establishing the relative importance of risk drivers What is Risk Informed Design? • US NRC advocates the use of RID in new plant designs • NASA uses RID for the latest space developments 1830/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
  • 19. Risk Informed Design Workflow 1930/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
  • 20. Site Characterisation & Hazard Mapping Classification of Infrastructure Vulnerability of Infrastructure Benchmark with Tolerable Risk Optioneering Risk is traded with other design commodities Resilient City (+ Sustainable solutions) Risk Assessment Risk Informed Urban Planning The process 30/08/2016 Mott MacDonald | Presentation title 20
  • 21. Fukushima NPP 21 Onagawa NPP It is our responsibility as designers to not allow a natural disaster to evolve to a man-made disaster Before and after the Great Tohoku Earthquake – Culture of safety can make or break a nuclear power plant30/08/2016 IDRC 2016 | Rissk Informed Urban Planning | A. Andonov
  • 22. Thank you and …Questions? Anton Andonov Principal Engineer E T W Anton.andonov@mottmac.com +359 (0) 2 491 6020 www.mottmac.com 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 / Davos / Switzerland