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Nozar G. Kishi; Ph.D.
Vice President; Model Development
Karen Clark and Company
Boston, MA USA
nkishi@karenclarkandco.com
IDRC Davos 2016
August 30th, 2016
Japan Vulnerability Characteristics
Confidential
Height Correlation
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 2
… < 10F
10F < … < 20F
20F < …
Confidential
Rarely on Hills; Mostly in Valleys
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 3
Tokyo Suburb
Confidential
Soil-Structure Correlation
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 4
10F ~ 1 sec
20F ~ 2 sec
0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 Period; sec
Soft Soil
Confidential
Self-Standing
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 5
Pounding
Leaning
Residential
Commercial
Kyoto
Boston
Confidential
High-Rise Residential
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 6
Rear
2 out of 4 = 50%
1 out of 4 = 25%
FrontFront
Confidential © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 7
Earthquake vs. Typhoon
Typhoon
Earthquake
Confidential
Earthquake vs. Typhoon
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 8
Kansai
(West)
Kanto
(East)
WindLoss
Earthquake Loss
Kobe
Tokyo
Confidential
Crustal-Subduction Coupling
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 9
 Period of observation: 1400 to 1997
 Results demonstrate evidence of coupling
 Triggering of earthquakes at long distances
Confidential
Building Inventory
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 10
R
C
Ste
el
Confidential
Seismic Code Evolution
 1880: Yokohama (5.5) and Nobi (7.9, ‘81) Earthquakes
 After Meiji Restoration, Abandoned 250 yrs of isolation
 Seismological Society of Japan founded (1880)
 1923: Great Kanto (7.9) Earthquake
 105,000 death, Great fire in Tokyo
 Minimum horizontal seismic coefficient set to 0.1g (1924)
 1945: End of World War II
 Large-scale Devastation, Major Reconstruction
 Building Standard Law replaced the old regulation (1950)
 1968: Tokachi-oki (7.9) Earthquake
 Building Standard Law revised, Shear Reinforcement strengthened
 1978: Miyagi-ken-oki (7.4) Earthquake
 Five-Year National Research Project initiated, New seismic code developed
 Allowable Stress Method introduced
 1995: Great Hanshin-Awaji (7.2) Earthquake
 Building Standard Law revised (1998)
 Performance-Based Limit-Capacity Method introduced
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 11
1945 (WWII)
1995 (Kobe)
Confidential
Japan vs. USA: Performance
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 12
Mid-Rise High-Rise
MeanDamageRatio
Ground Motion
Confidential
Code Enforcement
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 13
Confidential
Insurance Payoff
 Residential Insurance (Building)
 None: mdr=0%-3%; Pay=0%
 Partial: mdr=3%-20%; Pay=5%
 Half: mdr=20%-50%; Pay=50%
 Total: mdr=50%-100%; Pay=100%
 Residential Insurance (Contents)
 None: mdr=0%-10%; Pay=0%
 Partial: mdr=10%-30%; Pay=5%
 Half: mdr=30%-80%; Pay=50%
 Total: mdr=80%-100%; Pay=100%
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 14
10% 30% 100%80%
5%50%100%
Damage
Payoff
3% 20% 50% 100%
5%50%100%
Damage
Payoff
Confidential
As a Result:
 Payoff usually More than Damage
 Payoff is less than damage up to 20%
 Payoff is more than damage after 20%
 Demand Surge (Not Applicable)
 Payoff is function of incurred damage percent
 Payoff is NOT function of paid repair cost
 Time Element (Implicit)
 Payoff does not to cover for BI up to 10%ered
 Payoff compensates for BI after 20% damage
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 15
5% 20% 50% 100%
5%50%100%
Damage
Payoff
Confidential
Japan vs. USA: Take-Up Rate
 Japan: 29%
 Tokyo: 36%
 Miyagi: 51%
 Nagasaki: 14%
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 16
Fire+EQ EQ only
 USA: 27%
 California: 10%
 Oregon: 20%
 Washington: 12%
Confidential
Traditional Housing: Machiya
 Machiya:
 Frame: Post & Lintel
 Roof: Tile on Sand
 Walls: Mud infill
 Redundancy: None
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 17
Filled with mud
Sit on rock
Post & Lintel
Laid on sand
Confidential
Kumamoto 2016: Performance
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 18
Confidential
Kumamoto 2016: Vertical Component
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 19
Confidential
Kumamoto 2016: Uncertainty
© 2016 Karen Clark & Company 20
Confidential © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 21
Confidential © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 22

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Japan Building Vulnerability Characteristics, Nozar KISHI

  • 1. Nozar G. Kishi; Ph.D. Vice President; Model Development Karen Clark and Company Boston, MA USA nkishi@karenclarkandco.com IDRC Davos 2016 August 30th, 2016 Japan Vulnerability Characteristics
  • 2. Confidential Height Correlation © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 2 … < 10F 10F < … < 20F 20F < …
  • 3. Confidential Rarely on Hills; Mostly in Valleys © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 3 Tokyo Suburb
  • 4. Confidential Soil-Structure Correlation © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 4 10F ~ 1 sec 20F ~ 2 sec 0.3 0.5 1.0 2.0 Period; sec Soft Soil
  • 5. Confidential Self-Standing © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 5 Pounding Leaning Residential Commercial Kyoto Boston
  • 6. Confidential High-Rise Residential © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 6 Rear 2 out of 4 = 50% 1 out of 4 = 25% FrontFront
  • 7. Confidential © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 7 Earthquake vs. Typhoon Typhoon Earthquake
  • 8. Confidential Earthquake vs. Typhoon © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 8 Kansai (West) Kanto (East) WindLoss Earthquake Loss Kobe Tokyo
  • 9. Confidential Crustal-Subduction Coupling © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 9  Period of observation: 1400 to 1997  Results demonstrate evidence of coupling  Triggering of earthquakes at long distances
  • 10. Confidential Building Inventory © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 10 R C Ste el
  • 11. Confidential Seismic Code Evolution  1880: Yokohama (5.5) and Nobi (7.9, ‘81) Earthquakes  After Meiji Restoration, Abandoned 250 yrs of isolation  Seismological Society of Japan founded (1880)  1923: Great Kanto (7.9) Earthquake  105,000 death, Great fire in Tokyo  Minimum horizontal seismic coefficient set to 0.1g (1924)  1945: End of World War II  Large-scale Devastation, Major Reconstruction  Building Standard Law replaced the old regulation (1950)  1968: Tokachi-oki (7.9) Earthquake  Building Standard Law revised, Shear Reinforcement strengthened  1978: Miyagi-ken-oki (7.4) Earthquake  Five-Year National Research Project initiated, New seismic code developed  Allowable Stress Method introduced  1995: Great Hanshin-Awaji (7.2) Earthquake  Building Standard Law revised (1998)  Performance-Based Limit-Capacity Method introduced © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 11 1945 (WWII) 1995 (Kobe)
  • 12. Confidential Japan vs. USA: Performance © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 12 Mid-Rise High-Rise MeanDamageRatio Ground Motion
  • 13. Confidential Code Enforcement © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 13
  • 14. Confidential Insurance Payoff  Residential Insurance (Building)  None: mdr=0%-3%; Pay=0%  Partial: mdr=3%-20%; Pay=5%  Half: mdr=20%-50%; Pay=50%  Total: mdr=50%-100%; Pay=100%  Residential Insurance (Contents)  None: mdr=0%-10%; Pay=0%  Partial: mdr=10%-30%; Pay=5%  Half: mdr=30%-80%; Pay=50%  Total: mdr=80%-100%; Pay=100% © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 14 10% 30% 100%80% 5%50%100% Damage Payoff 3% 20% 50% 100% 5%50%100% Damage Payoff
  • 15. Confidential As a Result:  Payoff usually More than Damage  Payoff is less than damage up to 20%  Payoff is more than damage after 20%  Demand Surge (Not Applicable)  Payoff is function of incurred damage percent  Payoff is NOT function of paid repair cost  Time Element (Implicit)  Payoff does not to cover for BI up to 10%ered  Payoff compensates for BI after 20% damage © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 15 5% 20% 50% 100% 5%50%100% Damage Payoff
  • 16. Confidential Japan vs. USA: Take-Up Rate  Japan: 29%  Tokyo: 36%  Miyagi: 51%  Nagasaki: 14% © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 16 Fire+EQ EQ only  USA: 27%  California: 10%  Oregon: 20%  Washington: 12%
  • 17. Confidential Traditional Housing: Machiya  Machiya:  Frame: Post & Lintel  Roof: Tile on Sand  Walls: Mud infill  Redundancy: None © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 17 Filled with mud Sit on rock Post & Lintel Laid on sand
  • 18. Confidential Kumamoto 2016: Performance © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 18
  • 19. Confidential Kumamoto 2016: Vertical Component © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 19
  • 20. Confidential Kumamoto 2016: Uncertainty © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 20
  • 21. Confidential © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 21
  • 22. Confidential © 2016 Karen Clark & Company 22