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6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
An Analysis of National Disaster
Vulnerability, Risk and Resilience
Indices
Benjamin Beccari, PhD Candidate,
Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Outline of work
• Part of broader inventory of disaster risk, vulnerability and
resilience indices (published in PLoS Currents: Disasters)
• Review found 106 methodologies published prior to March
2015:
– 81 sub-national methods
– 20 country comparison methods
– 5 multi-scale methods
• This presentation focuses on country-comparison and multi-
scale methods
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Distribution
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Methodological Approaches
• Hierarchical and deductive methods – 20
• Relational analysis methods – 3
• Stakeholder focused methods – 1
• Novel statistical techniques – 1
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Index Construction
• Data Sources
– Most rely on World Bank or UN agency data
– 15 incorporate indices reported by other organisations
– One each used modelling, expert opinion, stakeholder survey
• Complex Hierarchies
– Mix of hierarchies and risk/vulnerability equations
– Some used up to 7 levels to aggregate variables
• Weighting Schemes
– Equal weights are most popular
– Others used weights selected by study team or participatory method
– Only one used a statistical method
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Use of Variables
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis
Data
Data
Data
Index
• Recommended as
best practice for ~8
years
• Most not applying it
• None undertaking
global sensitivity
analysis
• None provide
uncertainty
estimates
Of the 25 methods:
• 5 varied weights
• 1 chose different
variables
• 2 validated against
disaster impact data
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Comparison with Human Development Index
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Recommendations
• Index Developers should:
– Incorporate sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to their index
– Demonstrate it adds value beyond generic development indices
– Make attempts to validate the index output
– Publish the full index methodology and data sources
• Disaster Researchers should conduct further studies to identify:
– Better proxy variables for disaster risk, resilience and vulnerability
– More broadly applicable and effective variables of DRR activities
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Thank you
ben@benbeccari.com
www.benbeccari.com
@casuscalamitas

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An Analysis of National Disaster Vulnerability, Risk and Resilience Indices, Benjamin BECCARI

  • 1. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org An Analysis of National Disaster Vulnerability, Risk and Resilience Indices Benjamin Beccari, PhD Candidate, Scuola Universitaria Superiore IUSS Pavia
  • 2. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Outline of work • Part of broader inventory of disaster risk, vulnerability and resilience indices (published in PLoS Currents: Disasters) • Review found 106 methodologies published prior to March 2015: – 81 sub-national methods – 20 country comparison methods – 5 multi-scale methods • This presentation focuses on country-comparison and multi- scale methods
  • 3. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Distribution
  • 4. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Methodological Approaches • Hierarchical and deductive methods – 20 • Relational analysis methods – 3 • Stakeholder focused methods – 1 • Novel statistical techniques – 1
  • 5. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Index Construction • Data Sources – Most rely on World Bank or UN agency data – 15 incorporate indices reported by other organisations – One each used modelling, expert opinion, stakeholder survey • Complex Hierarchies – Mix of hierarchies and risk/vulnerability equations – Some used up to 7 levels to aggregate variables • Weighting Schemes – Equal weights are most popular – Others used weights selected by study team or participatory method – Only one used a statistical method
  • 6. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Use of Variables
  • 7. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Data Data Data Index • Recommended as best practice for ~8 years • Most not applying it • None undertaking global sensitivity analysis • None provide uncertainty estimates Of the 25 methods: • 5 varied weights • 1 chose different variables • 2 validated against disaster impact data
  • 8. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Comparison with Human Development Index
  • 9. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Recommendations • Index Developers should: – Incorporate sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to their index – Demonstrate it adds value beyond generic development indices – Make attempts to validate the index output – Publish the full index methodology and data sources • Disaster Researchers should conduct further studies to identify: – Better proxy variables for disaster risk, resilience and vulnerability – More broadly applicable and effective variables of DRR activities
  • 10. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Thank you ben@benbeccari.com www.benbeccari.com @casuscalamitas