SlideShare a Scribd company logo
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Resilient Energy Infrastructure:
Energy Security and Sustainability Implications
Robert Rosner1
, Peter Burgherr2
, Matteo Spada2
& Rebecca Lordan1,3
1
Energy Policy Institute of Chicago, The University of Chicago, USA
2
Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), Switzerland
3
Harris School of Public Policy Studies, The University of Chicago, USA
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
• Why does resilience matter for energy infrastructure?
• A national energy supply underlies virtually all of a nation’s ability
to produce wealth …
– Significant interruptions in energy supply thus have significant
economic impacts
• The complexity – and the history – of energy infrastructure
deployment make it extremely vulnerable to both accidental and
intentional disruptions ...
Energy security Energy infrastructure resilience
• The key question: How can we achieve resilience?
• My message: there exist tools for answering this question in a
systematic and productive manner
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
The potential points of disruption are everywhere …
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
It can be nature acting up …
The eastern U.S. blackout of 14 August, 2003
The causes:
•Hot weather leads to high-tension power line sagging, and eventual contact with ground …
•Huge power transfer to alternate routes trips overload sensors in Northeast grid ...
x
• 50 million people affected …
• >61,800 MW power lost ...
• Damage US$ 7-14 billion
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
It can be an external human adversary …
The issue:
•Transformers need cooling, which is done
via mineral oil
•Sniper(s) shot holes into the oil reservoirs
•Loss of cooling oil almost led to destruction
of the transformers …
•These transformers cannot be rapidly
replaced – it takes months ...
•Transformer loss would have meant no
power for months in the San Jose area ...
The Metcalf, California substation attack on
16 April, 2013
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
It can be an internal human adversary …
The story:
•A valve was opened in the
non-nuclear part of the plant
(“balance of plant”), resulting
in a leak of 65,000 liters of oil,
leading to catastrophic
overheating of the main
turbine
•Plant was off-line until 19 Dec.
2014
•No evidence of an outside
intruder entering the plant …
The Doel 4 nuclear reactor incident in Belgium, August 2014
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
So: how do we think about preventing these sorts of
events?
There are three concepts that can guide one’s thinking …
•Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
– An engineering assessment based method for “... estimating risk by
computing real numbers to determine what can go wrong, how likely it is,
and what are its consequences” (NRC)
•Defense in Depth (DiD)
– An engineering approach for protecting against possible failures by
providing multiple redundancies at all critical failure points ...
•Design Basis Threat (DBT)
– A methodology for determining what protective measures need to be in
place to guard against attack, and entails
• Determine likely adversaries ..
• Determine their likely course of action ...
• Determine the likeley capabilities of the adversaries ...
• Determine the nature of likely defensive measures that can prevent or
appropriately delay the adversary’s actions ...
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
What one does will depend on what we’re worried about
…
• There is no universal recipe …
• One always starts with a version of Probabilistic Risk Assessment
(PRA)
– Step 1: An event tree or fault tree analyses …
– Step 2: Designing a countering strategy … which can involve a mix of
“Defense in Depth” and “Design Basis Threat” (DBT) analyses
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Example #1: Power plants …
• “Probabilistic Risk Assessment” (PRA) and “Defense in Depth” need
to be used to guard against damage from natural disasters
– Neither were appropriately used at Fukushima Dai-ichi …
• PRA, “Defense in Depth”, and “Design Basis Threat” (DBT) analyses
are used together when thinking about adversarial attack
– The key here is not to consider repelling an attack, but in delaying the
adversary sufficiently to allow the arrival of the “cavalry” …
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
What went wrong at Fukushima Dai-ichi?
1. Sea wall too low2. Emergency generators below grade – and not sealed against
water infiltration …
3. Why no seals: design was U.S. origin – and designed for protection against tornadoes …
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
The nature of the power plant matters …
• Attacks against fossil fuel power plants by and large would focus on
disabling the plant …
– Historically, there has been little attention paid to protecting such plants; the
focus has been on protecting the attached power substation (more on this
later!)
• Attacks against nuclear power plants may have much more complex
motivations ...
– Disabling the plant, viz. attacking the steam turbines, since the nuclear
reactor itself is typically highly hardened against intrusions – think Doel 4 ...
– Attacking the used (“spent”) fuel storage facility, with the idea of spreading
the material over a large populated area (“dirty bomb”)
• The really vulnerable part of a plant is its cooling pools, where the used fuel is first
deposited after being removed from the reactor core ...
• This part of a nuclear power plant is typically relatively accessible, when compared
to the reactor core ...
• For this reason, “Design Basis Threat” analyses usually suggest a combination of
added physical defenses (e.g., hardened building structures) and a “protective
force”, both designed to delay ...
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Example #2: Transmission lines …
• Too many points of attack for effective protection against both nature and
adversaries ...
– But PRA dictate that certain precautions should be implemented: clear lines-of-
sight, minimize risk of shorting out lines via sag, winds, object impacts, ...
• Implication: The only sure way to achieve resilience is to implement a
“defense in depth” strategy, no matter what the origin of damage is:
– Energy transmission from energy source A to energy user B must rely on
multiple redundant pathways ...
– The capacity of alternate pathways must suffice to handle potential excess loads
...
ching’$of$electric$power$is$
plex$that$you$might$think!$
A
B
Note: The instincts of governments is to try to obfuscate
how resilience is achieved … this is usually done by
declaring all information regarding transmission or
pipeline routing as ‘secret’ or ‘confidential’ ... But in a
world in which all of us have access to satellite imagry, this
is unfortunately not very effective ... In other words, here
‘design basis threat’ analysis is not very helpful ...
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
However: This approach to resilience does not work
for all transmission lines …
• It works for long-distance high-voltage
transmission lines …
• It will not work for local (lower voltage)
distribution transmission lines, such as the ones
that bring power to your house or building ...
– It’s not feasible to build redundant local transmission
nets
– Instead, the key point is rapid identification of problems:
e.g., the location + nature of break(s), and reserve
supply of distribution gear ...
– A “smart grid” is a key tool ... and its use for rapid
identification of grid problems is one of the key
motivators for utilities pushing towards a “smart grid”!
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Example #3: Substations
• Substations are the points at which power is distributed – from (a) power
stations to the high-voltage (HV) transmission lines, from (b) the HV lines
to the lower-voltage local distribution transmission lines, and then (c) to
the final line transformers that connect the grid to your home.
(a)
(b)
(c)
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
It is the big substations that are the problem …
• The local pole-attached line transformers can be treated just line the local
transmission lines – e.g.,
– Use “smart grid” technology to identify problematic transformers, and
– Maintain a repository for spare replacement transformers
– This is what is in fact currently done …
• The problem at big substations rests with the transformers themselves,
e.g., transformers w/ capacities > 100 MW*
– Such large power transformers (“LPTs”) are rarely kept in stock – they are
typically manufactured on demand, with lead times up to 20 (!) months
• They can weigh up to 400 tons, and cost in the millions of dollars ...
• These are the kinds of transformers attacked at the Metcalf Transmission
substation …
• What can we do?
– This is a case where the full complement of PRA, ‘defense in depth’ and
“design basis threat” analysis can be brought to bear ...
*
U.S. Dept. of Energy Report “Large Power Transformers and the U.S. Electric Grid” (2012)
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
How do we deal with big substations??
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), involving event/fault tree
analyses, must be used to identify vulnerabilities …
• Design Basis Threat (DBT) analysis argues for delay:
– Early detection of problems (substations are usually not staffed!)
– Efficient, protected and redundant sensors … and early detection of sensor
failure ...
– Site protective measures (fencing, walls, breaking lines of sight, …)
• Defense in Depth (DiD) argues for redundancy
– Build out backup substations, as part of a more highly redundant grid
architecture …
– Reconstitute the transformer supply chain (bringing down transformer
replacement times to weeks or perhaps even days) ...
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can assess the effectiveness of the
measures instituted as a result of DBT and DiD analyses …
– Validation of PRA can involve game theory-based scenario analyses, as
well as full-scale emergency drills ...
6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Now …
It’s time for questions and discussion!!!

More Related Content

What's hot

Integrative Review of Factors Associated with the Willingness of Health Care ...
Integrative Review of Factors Associated with the Willingness of Health Care ...Integrative Review of Factors Associated with the Willingness of Health Care ...
Integrative Review of Factors Associated with the Willingness of Health Care ...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Evaluation Competent Disaster Nurse in Saudi Arabia Against International Dis...
Evaluation Competent Disaster Nurse in Saudi Arabia Against International Dis...Evaluation Competent Disaster Nurse in Saudi Arabia Against International Dis...
Evaluation Competent Disaster Nurse in Saudi Arabia Against International Dis...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Suggestion from the Elderly Person Facilities at the 2011 Great East Japan Ea...
Suggestion from the Elderly Person Facilities at the 2011 Great East Japan Ea...Suggestion from the Elderly Person Facilities at the 2011 Great East Japan Ea...
Suggestion from the Elderly Person Facilities at the 2011 Great East Japan Ea...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Advancing Coordination Between DRM and CCA in Integrated Flood Risk Managemen...
Advancing Coordination Between DRM and CCA in Integrated Flood Risk Managemen...Advancing Coordination Between DRM and CCA in Integrated Flood Risk Managemen...
Advancing Coordination Between DRM and CCA in Integrated Flood Risk Managemen...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Crisis Management Strategies of Thailand's Tourism Industry Following Politic...
Crisis Management Strategies of Thailand's Tourism Industry Following Politic...Crisis Management Strategies of Thailand's Tourism Industry Following Politic...
Crisis Management Strategies of Thailand's Tourism Industry Following Politic...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Building Resilience in Urban Youth and Communities The Power of Prevention, J...
Building Resilience in Urban Youth and Communities The Power of Prevention, J...Building Resilience in Urban Youth and Communities The Power of Prevention, J...
Building Resilience in Urban Youth and Communities The Power of Prevention, J...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Qualitative Risk Assessment for Business Continuity Management in University,...
Qualitative Risk Assessment for Business Continuity Management in University,...Qualitative Risk Assessment for Business Continuity Management in University,...
Qualitative Risk Assessment for Business Continuity Management in University,...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...
The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...
The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Announcing the Risk Award 2017, Thomas LOSTER
Announcing the Risk Award 2017, Thomas LOSTERAnnouncing the Risk Award 2017, Thomas LOSTER
Announcing the Risk Award 2017, Thomas LOSTER
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
The Process of Involving Citizens in the Planning of Green Cities, Gisela WAC...
The Process of Involving Citizens in the Planning of Green Cities, Gisela WAC...The Process of Involving Citizens in the Planning of Green Cities, Gisela WAC...
The Process of Involving Citizens in the Planning of Green Cities, Gisela WAC...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Save Yourself - Predicting Whether Communities Will be Able to Prepare Themse...
Save Yourself - Predicting Whether Communities Will be Able to Prepare Themse...Save Yourself - Predicting Whether Communities Will be Able to Prepare Themse...
Save Yourself - Predicting Whether Communities Will be Able to Prepare Themse...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...
Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...
Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Untangling the Drivers of Disaster Resilience Developing a Context, Capacity ...
Untangling the Drivers of Disaster Resilience Developing a Context, Capacity ...Untangling the Drivers of Disaster Resilience Developing a Context, Capacity ...
Untangling the Drivers of Disaster Resilience Developing a Context, Capacity ...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...
Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...
Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Community Based Early Warning System for Landslides The Case of Four Gramanil...
Community Based Early Warning System for Landslides The Case of Four Gramanil...Community Based Early Warning System for Landslides The Case of Four Gramanil...
Community Based Early Warning System for Landslides The Case of Four Gramanil...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
C&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLA
C&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLAC&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLA
C&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLA
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Bottom-up Organizing and Empowerment in Post-Disaster Work, Sara Eliisa BONDE...
Bottom-up Organizing and Empowerment in Post-Disaster Work, Sara Eliisa BONDE...Bottom-up Organizing and Empowerment in Post-Disaster Work, Sara Eliisa BONDE...
Bottom-up Organizing and Empowerment in Post-Disaster Work, Sara Eliisa BONDE...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Dynamic Risk Map (DRM) for Enhancing Risk Assessment of Construction Projects...
Dynamic Risk Map (DRM) for Enhancing Risk Assessment of Construction Projects...Dynamic Risk Map (DRM) for Enhancing Risk Assessment of Construction Projects...
Dynamic Risk Map (DRM) for Enhancing Risk Assessment of Construction Projects...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
The Resilience of Territories to Disasters, Clara VILLAR
The Resilience of Territories to Disasters, Clara VILLARThe Resilience of Territories to Disasters, Clara VILLAR
The Resilience of Territories to Disasters, Clara VILLAR
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
The Dutch comprehensive approach to resilient infrastructures, Paul GELTON
The Dutch comprehensive approach to resilient infrastructures, Paul GELTONThe Dutch comprehensive approach to resilient infrastructures, Paul GELTON
The Dutch comprehensive approach to resilient infrastructures, Paul GELTON
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 

What's hot (20)

Integrative Review of Factors Associated with the Willingness of Health Care ...
Integrative Review of Factors Associated with the Willingness of Health Care ...Integrative Review of Factors Associated with the Willingness of Health Care ...
Integrative Review of Factors Associated with the Willingness of Health Care ...
 
Evaluation Competent Disaster Nurse in Saudi Arabia Against International Dis...
Evaluation Competent Disaster Nurse in Saudi Arabia Against International Dis...Evaluation Competent Disaster Nurse in Saudi Arabia Against International Dis...
Evaluation Competent Disaster Nurse in Saudi Arabia Against International Dis...
 
Suggestion from the Elderly Person Facilities at the 2011 Great East Japan Ea...
Suggestion from the Elderly Person Facilities at the 2011 Great East Japan Ea...Suggestion from the Elderly Person Facilities at the 2011 Great East Japan Ea...
Suggestion from the Elderly Person Facilities at the 2011 Great East Japan Ea...
 
Advancing Coordination Between DRM and CCA in Integrated Flood Risk Managemen...
Advancing Coordination Between DRM and CCA in Integrated Flood Risk Managemen...Advancing Coordination Between DRM and CCA in Integrated Flood Risk Managemen...
Advancing Coordination Between DRM and CCA in Integrated Flood Risk Managemen...
 
Crisis Management Strategies of Thailand's Tourism Industry Following Politic...
Crisis Management Strategies of Thailand's Tourism Industry Following Politic...Crisis Management Strategies of Thailand's Tourism Industry Following Politic...
Crisis Management Strategies of Thailand's Tourism Industry Following Politic...
 
Building Resilience in Urban Youth and Communities The Power of Prevention, J...
Building Resilience in Urban Youth and Communities The Power of Prevention, J...Building Resilience in Urban Youth and Communities The Power of Prevention, J...
Building Resilience in Urban Youth and Communities The Power of Prevention, J...
 
Qualitative Risk Assessment for Business Continuity Management in University,...
Qualitative Risk Assessment for Business Continuity Management in University,...Qualitative Risk Assessment for Business Continuity Management in University,...
Qualitative Risk Assessment for Business Continuity Management in University,...
 
The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...
The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...
The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...
 
Announcing the Risk Award 2017, Thomas LOSTER
Announcing the Risk Award 2017, Thomas LOSTERAnnouncing the Risk Award 2017, Thomas LOSTER
Announcing the Risk Award 2017, Thomas LOSTER
 
The Process of Involving Citizens in the Planning of Green Cities, Gisela WAC...
The Process of Involving Citizens in the Planning of Green Cities, Gisela WAC...The Process of Involving Citizens in the Planning of Green Cities, Gisela WAC...
The Process of Involving Citizens in the Planning of Green Cities, Gisela WAC...
 
Save Yourself - Predicting Whether Communities Will be Able to Prepare Themse...
Save Yourself - Predicting Whether Communities Will be Able to Prepare Themse...Save Yourself - Predicting Whether Communities Will be Able to Prepare Themse...
Save Yourself - Predicting Whether Communities Will be Able to Prepare Themse...
 
Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...
Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...
Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...
 
Untangling the Drivers of Disaster Resilience Developing a Context, Capacity ...
Untangling the Drivers of Disaster Resilience Developing a Context, Capacity ...Untangling the Drivers of Disaster Resilience Developing a Context, Capacity ...
Untangling the Drivers of Disaster Resilience Developing a Context, Capacity ...
 
Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...
Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...
Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...
 
Community Based Early Warning System for Landslides The Case of Four Gramanil...
Community Based Early Warning System for Landslides The Case of Four Gramanil...Community Based Early Warning System for Landslides The Case of Four Gramanil...
Community Based Early Warning System for Landslides The Case of Four Gramanil...
 
C&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLA
C&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLAC&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLA
C&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLA
 
Bottom-up Organizing and Empowerment in Post-Disaster Work, Sara Eliisa BONDE...
Bottom-up Organizing and Empowerment in Post-Disaster Work, Sara Eliisa BONDE...Bottom-up Organizing and Empowerment in Post-Disaster Work, Sara Eliisa BONDE...
Bottom-up Organizing and Empowerment in Post-Disaster Work, Sara Eliisa BONDE...
 
Dynamic Risk Map (DRM) for Enhancing Risk Assessment of Construction Projects...
Dynamic Risk Map (DRM) for Enhancing Risk Assessment of Construction Projects...Dynamic Risk Map (DRM) for Enhancing Risk Assessment of Construction Projects...
Dynamic Risk Map (DRM) for Enhancing Risk Assessment of Construction Projects...
 
The Resilience of Territories to Disasters, Clara VILLAR
The Resilience of Territories to Disasters, Clara VILLARThe Resilience of Territories to Disasters, Clara VILLAR
The Resilience of Territories to Disasters, Clara VILLAR
 
The Dutch comprehensive approach to resilient infrastructures, Paul GELTON
The Dutch comprehensive approach to resilient infrastructures, Paul GELTONThe Dutch comprehensive approach to resilient infrastructures, Paul GELTON
The Dutch comprehensive approach to resilient infrastructures, Paul GELTON
 

Similar to Resilient Energy Infrastructures Energy Security and Sustainability Implications, Robert ROSNER

Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...
Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...
Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Resilience in High-Speed Train Networks - Promising, New Approach, Florian ST...
Resilience in High-Speed Train Networks - Promising, New Approach, Florian ST...Resilience in High-Speed Train Networks - Promising, New Approach, Florian ST...
Resilience in High-Speed Train Networks - Promising, New Approach, Florian ST...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
A Multi-objective Goal Programming Approach for Locating Emergency Shelters u...
A Multi-objective Goal Programming Approach for Locating Emergency Shelters u...A Multi-objective Goal Programming Approach for Locating Emergency Shelters u...
A Multi-objective Goal Programming Approach for Locating Emergency Shelters u...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Governing Risk Reduction in the Built Environment the Case of Victoria, Austr...
Governing Risk Reduction in the Built Environment the Case of Victoria, Austr...Governing Risk Reduction in the Built Environment the Case of Victoria, Austr...
Governing Risk Reduction in the Built Environment the Case of Victoria, Austr...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Critical Infrastructure, Panarchies and the Vulnerability Paths of Cascading ...
Critical Infrastructure, Panarchies and the Vulnerability Paths of Cascading ...Critical Infrastructure, Panarchies and the Vulnerability Paths of Cascading ...
Critical Infrastructure, Panarchies and the Vulnerability Paths of Cascading ...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Operationalization of an ISO 31000-Compliant Resilience Engineering Method, A...
Operationalization of an ISO 31000-Compliant Resilience Engineering Method, A...Operationalization of an ISO 31000-Compliant Resilience Engineering Method, A...
Operationalization of an ISO 31000-Compliant Resilience Engineering Method, A...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Estimating Post-Earthquake Shelter Requirements, Annibale VECERE
Estimating Post-Earthquake Shelter Requirements, Annibale VECEREEstimating Post-Earthquake Shelter Requirements, Annibale VECERE
Estimating Post-Earthquake Shelter Requirements, Annibale VECERE
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Use of Catastrophe Modelling Data to Help Earthquake Risk Assessment for Deve...
Use of Catastrophe Modelling Data to Help Earthquake Risk Assessment for Deve...Use of Catastrophe Modelling Data to Help Earthquake Risk Assessment for Deve...
Use of Catastrophe Modelling Data to Help Earthquake Risk Assessment for Deve...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Stress Testing Cities - How to Live and Plan with New Risks, Theo KOETTER
Stress Testing Cities - How to Live and Plan with New Risks, Theo KOETTERStress Testing Cities - How to Live and Plan with New Risks, Theo KOETTER
Stress Testing Cities - How to Live and Plan with New Risks, Theo KOETTER
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model for Real-time Urban Flood Forecasti...
Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model for Real-time Urban Flood Forecasti...Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model for Real-time Urban Flood Forecasti...
Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model for Real-time Urban Flood Forecasti...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Adapting Mass Casualty Response In An Era Of Increased Active Shooter Inciden...
Adapting Mass Casualty Response In An Era Of Increased Active Shooter Inciden...Adapting Mass Casualty Response In An Era Of Increased Active Shooter Inciden...
Adapting Mass Casualty Response In An Era Of Increased Active Shooter Inciden...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Three Dilemmas of the Resilient City, Charles W. STEGER
Three Dilemmas of the Resilient City, Charles W. STEGERThree Dilemmas of the Resilient City, Charles W. STEGER
Three Dilemmas of the Resilient City, Charles W. STEGER
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...
Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...
Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Institutionalizing the Application of Latest DRR Technologies for the Public...
Institutionalizing the  Application of Latest DRR Technologies for the Public...Institutionalizing the  Application of Latest DRR Technologies for the Public...
Institutionalizing the Application of Latest DRR Technologies for the Public...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...
Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...
Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Tools for Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazard Risks, Michael BRUENDL
Tools for Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazard Risks, Michael BRUENDLTools for Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazard Risks, Michael BRUENDL
Tools for Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazard Risks, Michael BRUENDL
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...
Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...
Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...
Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...
Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Risk Assessment and Mapping of Harmful Algal Bloom in Farming Fisheries of So...
Risk Assessment and Mapping of Harmful Algal Bloom in Farming Fisheries of So...Risk Assessment and Mapping of Harmful Algal Bloom in Farming Fisheries of So...
Risk Assessment and Mapping of Harmful Algal Bloom in Farming Fisheries of So...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Development of Disaster Profiling Technique for Case-based Cause Analysis, Mi...
Development of Disaster Profiling Technique for Case-based Cause Analysis, Mi...Development of Disaster Profiling Technique for Case-based Cause Analysis, Mi...
Development of Disaster Profiling Technique for Case-based Cause Analysis, Mi...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 

Similar to Resilient Energy Infrastructures Energy Security and Sustainability Implications, Robert ROSNER (20)

Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...
Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...
Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...
 
Resilience in High-Speed Train Networks - Promising, New Approach, Florian ST...
Resilience in High-Speed Train Networks - Promising, New Approach, Florian ST...Resilience in High-Speed Train Networks - Promising, New Approach, Florian ST...
Resilience in High-Speed Train Networks - Promising, New Approach, Florian ST...
 
A Multi-objective Goal Programming Approach for Locating Emergency Shelters u...
A Multi-objective Goal Programming Approach for Locating Emergency Shelters u...A Multi-objective Goal Programming Approach for Locating Emergency Shelters u...
A Multi-objective Goal Programming Approach for Locating Emergency Shelters u...
 
Governing Risk Reduction in the Built Environment the Case of Victoria, Austr...
Governing Risk Reduction in the Built Environment the Case of Victoria, Austr...Governing Risk Reduction in the Built Environment the Case of Victoria, Austr...
Governing Risk Reduction in the Built Environment the Case of Victoria, Austr...
 
Critical Infrastructure, Panarchies and the Vulnerability Paths of Cascading ...
Critical Infrastructure, Panarchies and the Vulnerability Paths of Cascading ...Critical Infrastructure, Panarchies and the Vulnerability Paths of Cascading ...
Critical Infrastructure, Panarchies and the Vulnerability Paths of Cascading ...
 
Operationalization of an ISO 31000-Compliant Resilience Engineering Method, A...
Operationalization of an ISO 31000-Compliant Resilience Engineering Method, A...Operationalization of an ISO 31000-Compliant Resilience Engineering Method, A...
Operationalization of an ISO 31000-Compliant Resilience Engineering Method, A...
 
Estimating Post-Earthquake Shelter Requirements, Annibale VECERE
Estimating Post-Earthquake Shelter Requirements, Annibale VECEREEstimating Post-Earthquake Shelter Requirements, Annibale VECERE
Estimating Post-Earthquake Shelter Requirements, Annibale VECERE
 
Use of Catastrophe Modelling Data to Help Earthquake Risk Assessment for Deve...
Use of Catastrophe Modelling Data to Help Earthquake Risk Assessment for Deve...Use of Catastrophe Modelling Data to Help Earthquake Risk Assessment for Deve...
Use of Catastrophe Modelling Data to Help Earthquake Risk Assessment for Deve...
 
Stress Testing Cities - How to Live and Plan with New Risks, Theo KOETTER
Stress Testing Cities - How to Live and Plan with New Risks, Theo KOETTERStress Testing Cities - How to Live and Plan with New Risks, Theo KOETTER
Stress Testing Cities - How to Live and Plan with New Risks, Theo KOETTER
 
Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model for Real-time Urban Flood Forecasti...
Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model for Real-time Urban Flood Forecasti...Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model for Real-time Urban Flood Forecasti...
Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model for Real-time Urban Flood Forecasti...
 
Adapting Mass Casualty Response In An Era Of Increased Active Shooter Inciden...
Adapting Mass Casualty Response In An Era Of Increased Active Shooter Inciden...Adapting Mass Casualty Response In An Era Of Increased Active Shooter Inciden...
Adapting Mass Casualty Response In An Era Of Increased Active Shooter Inciden...
 
Three Dilemmas of the Resilient City, Charles W. STEGER
Three Dilemmas of the Resilient City, Charles W. STEGERThree Dilemmas of the Resilient City, Charles W. STEGER
Three Dilemmas of the Resilient City, Charles W. STEGER
 
Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...
Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...
Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...
 
Institutionalizing the Application of Latest DRR Technologies for the Public...
Institutionalizing the  Application of Latest DRR Technologies for the Public...Institutionalizing the  Application of Latest DRR Technologies for the Public...
Institutionalizing the Application of Latest DRR Technologies for the Public...
 
Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...
Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...
Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...
 
Tools for Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazard Risks, Michael BRUENDL
Tools for Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazard Risks, Michael BRUENDLTools for Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazard Risks, Michael BRUENDL
Tools for Assessment and Mapping of Natural Hazard Risks, Michael BRUENDL
 
Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...
Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...
Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...
 
Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...
Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...
Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...
 
Risk Assessment and Mapping of Harmful Algal Bloom in Farming Fisheries of So...
Risk Assessment and Mapping of Harmful Algal Bloom in Farming Fisheries of So...Risk Assessment and Mapping of Harmful Algal Bloom in Farming Fisheries of So...
Risk Assessment and Mapping of Harmful Algal Bloom in Farming Fisheries of So...
 
Development of Disaster Profiling Technique for Case-based Cause Analysis, Mi...
Development of Disaster Profiling Technique for Case-based Cause Analysis, Mi...Development of Disaster Profiling Technique for Case-based Cause Analysis, Mi...
Development of Disaster Profiling Technique for Case-based Cause Analysis, Mi...
 

More from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos

Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian Doherty
Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian DohertyDisaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian Doherty
Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian Doherty
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...
Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...
Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...
Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...
Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...
Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...
Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...
Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...
Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...
Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...
Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...
IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...
IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANO
Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANOGlobal Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANO
Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANO
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Capacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDA
Capacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDACapacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDA
Capacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDA
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...
Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...
Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...
Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...
Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Architecture as a Catalyst for Sustainable Development, Anna HERINGER
Architecture as a Catalyst for Sustainable Development, Anna HERINGERArchitecture as a Catalyst for Sustainable Development, Anna HERINGER
Architecture as a Catalyst for Sustainable Development, Anna HERINGER
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Study on the Impact of Economic Growth on Meteorological Disaster Losses in C...
Study on the Impact of Economic Growth on Meteorological Disaster Losses in C...Study on the Impact of Economic Growth on Meteorological Disaster Losses in C...
Study on the Impact of Economic Growth on Meteorological Disaster Losses in C...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Study on Probability Distribution of Disaster Losses, Demographics and Social...
Study on Probability Distribution of Disaster Losses, Demographics and Social...Study on Probability Distribution of Disaster Losses, Demographics and Social...
Study on Probability Distribution of Disaster Losses, Demographics and Social...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Where and What Kind of Weather Insurance Indexes Could be Potentially Used fo...
Where and What Kind of Weather Insurance Indexes Could be Potentially Used fo...Where and What Kind of Weather Insurance Indexes Could be Potentially Used fo...
Where and What Kind of Weather Insurance Indexes Could be Potentially Used fo...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Creating New Hybrid Products for Adapting the Insurance Mechanism to Drive Re...
Creating New Hybrid Products for Adapting the Insurance Mechanism to Drive Re...Creating New Hybrid Products for Adapting the Insurance Mechanism to Drive Re...
Creating New Hybrid Products for Adapting the Insurance Mechanism to Drive Re...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Integrated Finanical Risk Transfer Mechanisms for Urban Resilience, Sandra SC...
Integrated Finanical Risk Transfer Mechanisms for Urban Resilience, Sandra SC...Integrated Finanical Risk Transfer Mechanisms for Urban Resilience, Sandra SC...
Integrated Finanical Risk Transfer Mechanisms for Urban Resilience, Sandra SC...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...
Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...
Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...
Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...
Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...
Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 

More from Global Risk Forum GRFDavos (20)

Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian Doherty
Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian DohertyDisaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian Doherty
Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian Doherty
 
Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...
Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...
Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...
 
Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...
Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...
Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...
 
Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...
Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...
Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...
 
Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...
Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...
Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...
 
Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...
Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...
Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...
 
IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...
IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...
IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...
 
Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANO
Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANOGlobal Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANO
Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANO
 
Capacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDA
Capacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDACapacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDA
Capacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDA
 
Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...
Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...
Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...
 
Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...
Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...
Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...
 
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
 
Architecture as a Catalyst for Sustainable Development, Anna HERINGER
Architecture as a Catalyst for Sustainable Development, Anna HERINGERArchitecture as a Catalyst for Sustainable Development, Anna HERINGER
Architecture as a Catalyst for Sustainable Development, Anna HERINGER
 
Study on the Impact of Economic Growth on Meteorological Disaster Losses in C...
Study on the Impact of Economic Growth on Meteorological Disaster Losses in C...Study on the Impact of Economic Growth on Meteorological Disaster Losses in C...
Study on the Impact of Economic Growth on Meteorological Disaster Losses in C...
 
Study on Probability Distribution of Disaster Losses, Demographics and Social...
Study on Probability Distribution of Disaster Losses, Demographics and Social...Study on Probability Distribution of Disaster Losses, Demographics and Social...
Study on Probability Distribution of Disaster Losses, Demographics and Social...
 
Where and What Kind of Weather Insurance Indexes Could be Potentially Used fo...
Where and What Kind of Weather Insurance Indexes Could be Potentially Used fo...Where and What Kind of Weather Insurance Indexes Could be Potentially Used fo...
Where and What Kind of Weather Insurance Indexes Could be Potentially Used fo...
 
Creating New Hybrid Products for Adapting the Insurance Mechanism to Drive Re...
Creating New Hybrid Products for Adapting the Insurance Mechanism to Drive Re...Creating New Hybrid Products for Adapting the Insurance Mechanism to Drive Re...
Creating New Hybrid Products for Adapting the Insurance Mechanism to Drive Re...
 
Integrated Finanical Risk Transfer Mechanisms for Urban Resilience, Sandra SC...
Integrated Finanical Risk Transfer Mechanisms for Urban Resilience, Sandra SC...Integrated Finanical Risk Transfer Mechanisms for Urban Resilience, Sandra SC...
Integrated Finanical Risk Transfer Mechanisms for Urban Resilience, Sandra SC...
 
Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...
Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...
Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...
 
Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...
Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...
Resilient Cities, SMEs, Communities and Infrastructure Four Pioneering Projec...
 

Resilient Energy Infrastructures Energy Security and Sustainability Implications, Robert ROSNER

  • 1. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Resilient Energy Infrastructure: Energy Security and Sustainability Implications Robert Rosner1 , Peter Burgherr2 , Matteo Spada2 & Rebecca Lordan1,3 1 Energy Policy Institute of Chicago, The University of Chicago, USA 2 Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), Switzerland 3 Harris School of Public Policy Studies, The University of Chicago, USA
  • 2. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org • Why does resilience matter for energy infrastructure? • A national energy supply underlies virtually all of a nation’s ability to produce wealth … – Significant interruptions in energy supply thus have significant economic impacts • The complexity – and the history – of energy infrastructure deployment make it extremely vulnerable to both accidental and intentional disruptions ... Energy security Energy infrastructure resilience • The key question: How can we achieve resilience? • My message: there exist tools for answering this question in a systematic and productive manner
  • 3. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org The potential points of disruption are everywhere …
  • 4. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org It can be nature acting up … The eastern U.S. blackout of 14 August, 2003 The causes: •Hot weather leads to high-tension power line sagging, and eventual contact with ground … •Huge power transfer to alternate routes trips overload sensors in Northeast grid ... x • 50 million people affected … • >61,800 MW power lost ... • Damage US$ 7-14 billion
  • 5. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org It can be an external human adversary … The issue: •Transformers need cooling, which is done via mineral oil •Sniper(s) shot holes into the oil reservoirs •Loss of cooling oil almost led to destruction of the transformers … •These transformers cannot be rapidly replaced – it takes months ... •Transformer loss would have meant no power for months in the San Jose area ... The Metcalf, California substation attack on 16 April, 2013
  • 6. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org It can be an internal human adversary … The story: •A valve was opened in the non-nuclear part of the plant (“balance of plant”), resulting in a leak of 65,000 liters of oil, leading to catastrophic overheating of the main turbine •Plant was off-line until 19 Dec. 2014 •No evidence of an outside intruder entering the plant … The Doel 4 nuclear reactor incident in Belgium, August 2014
  • 7. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org So: how do we think about preventing these sorts of events? There are three concepts that can guide one’s thinking … •Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) – An engineering assessment based method for “... estimating risk by computing real numbers to determine what can go wrong, how likely it is, and what are its consequences” (NRC) •Defense in Depth (DiD) – An engineering approach for protecting against possible failures by providing multiple redundancies at all critical failure points ... •Design Basis Threat (DBT) – A methodology for determining what protective measures need to be in place to guard against attack, and entails • Determine likely adversaries .. • Determine their likely course of action ... • Determine the likeley capabilities of the adversaries ... • Determine the nature of likely defensive measures that can prevent or appropriately delay the adversary’s actions ...
  • 8. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org What one does will depend on what we’re worried about … • There is no universal recipe … • One always starts with a version of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) – Step 1: An event tree or fault tree analyses … – Step 2: Designing a countering strategy … which can involve a mix of “Defense in Depth” and “Design Basis Threat” (DBT) analyses
  • 9. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Example #1: Power plants … • “Probabilistic Risk Assessment” (PRA) and “Defense in Depth” need to be used to guard against damage from natural disasters – Neither were appropriately used at Fukushima Dai-ichi … • PRA, “Defense in Depth”, and “Design Basis Threat” (DBT) analyses are used together when thinking about adversarial attack – The key here is not to consider repelling an attack, but in delaying the adversary sufficiently to allow the arrival of the “cavalry” …
  • 10. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org What went wrong at Fukushima Dai-ichi? 1. Sea wall too low2. Emergency generators below grade – and not sealed against water infiltration … 3. Why no seals: design was U.S. origin – and designed for protection against tornadoes …
  • 11. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org The nature of the power plant matters … • Attacks against fossil fuel power plants by and large would focus on disabling the plant … – Historically, there has been little attention paid to protecting such plants; the focus has been on protecting the attached power substation (more on this later!) • Attacks against nuclear power plants may have much more complex motivations ... – Disabling the plant, viz. attacking the steam turbines, since the nuclear reactor itself is typically highly hardened against intrusions – think Doel 4 ... – Attacking the used (“spent”) fuel storage facility, with the idea of spreading the material over a large populated area (“dirty bomb”) • The really vulnerable part of a plant is its cooling pools, where the used fuel is first deposited after being removed from the reactor core ... • This part of a nuclear power plant is typically relatively accessible, when compared to the reactor core ... • For this reason, “Design Basis Threat” analyses usually suggest a combination of added physical defenses (e.g., hardened building structures) and a “protective force”, both designed to delay ...
  • 12. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Example #2: Transmission lines … • Too many points of attack for effective protection against both nature and adversaries ... – But PRA dictate that certain precautions should be implemented: clear lines-of- sight, minimize risk of shorting out lines via sag, winds, object impacts, ... • Implication: The only sure way to achieve resilience is to implement a “defense in depth” strategy, no matter what the origin of damage is: – Energy transmission from energy source A to energy user B must rely on multiple redundant pathways ... – The capacity of alternate pathways must suffice to handle potential excess loads ... ching’$of$electric$power$is$ plex$that$you$might$think!$ A B Note: The instincts of governments is to try to obfuscate how resilience is achieved … this is usually done by declaring all information regarding transmission or pipeline routing as ‘secret’ or ‘confidential’ ... But in a world in which all of us have access to satellite imagry, this is unfortunately not very effective ... In other words, here ‘design basis threat’ analysis is not very helpful ...
  • 13. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org However: This approach to resilience does not work for all transmission lines … • It works for long-distance high-voltage transmission lines … • It will not work for local (lower voltage) distribution transmission lines, such as the ones that bring power to your house or building ... – It’s not feasible to build redundant local transmission nets – Instead, the key point is rapid identification of problems: e.g., the location + nature of break(s), and reserve supply of distribution gear ... – A “smart grid” is a key tool ... and its use for rapid identification of grid problems is one of the key motivators for utilities pushing towards a “smart grid”!
  • 14. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Example #3: Substations • Substations are the points at which power is distributed – from (a) power stations to the high-voltage (HV) transmission lines, from (b) the HV lines to the lower-voltage local distribution transmission lines, and then (c) to the final line transformers that connect the grid to your home. (a) (b) (c)
  • 15. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org It is the big substations that are the problem … • The local pole-attached line transformers can be treated just line the local transmission lines – e.g., – Use “smart grid” technology to identify problematic transformers, and – Maintain a repository for spare replacement transformers – This is what is in fact currently done … • The problem at big substations rests with the transformers themselves, e.g., transformers w/ capacities > 100 MW* – Such large power transformers (“LPTs”) are rarely kept in stock – they are typically manufactured on demand, with lead times up to 20 (!) months • They can weigh up to 400 tons, and cost in the millions of dollars ... • These are the kinds of transformers attacked at the Metcalf Transmission substation … • What can we do? – This is a case where the full complement of PRA, ‘defense in depth’ and “design basis threat” analysis can be brought to bear ... * U.S. Dept. of Energy Report “Large Power Transformers and the U.S. Electric Grid” (2012)
  • 16. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org How do we deal with big substations?? • Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), involving event/fault tree analyses, must be used to identify vulnerabilities … • Design Basis Threat (DBT) analysis argues for delay: – Early detection of problems (substations are usually not staffed!) – Efficient, protected and redundant sensors … and early detection of sensor failure ... – Site protective measures (fencing, walls, breaking lines of sight, …) • Defense in Depth (DiD) argues for redundancy – Build out backup substations, as part of a more highly redundant grid architecture … – Reconstitute the transformer supply chain (bringing down transformer replacement times to weeks or perhaps even days) ... • Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) can assess the effectiveness of the measures instituted as a result of DBT and DiD analyses … – Validation of PRA can involve game theory-based scenario analyses, as well as full-scale emergency drills ...
  • 17. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Now … It’s time for questions and discussion!!!