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General Public Release
The role of insurance in disaster risk
financing
IDRC Davos, 31 August 2016
Esther Baur, Swiss Re, Global Partnerships
General Public Release
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
New agreements calling for stronger role of insurance
“…promote mechanisms for disaster
risk transfer and insurance …. in
order to reduce the financial impact
of disasters …”
On insurance: “This would create
increased liquidity for early action,
instead of relying on post-crisis
"relief-itemised" assistance”.
“Strengthen the capacity of
domestic financial institutions to
encourage and expand access to
banking, insurance and financial
services for all”.
“The G7 initiative on climate risk
insurance aims to increase the
number of people covered by this
kind of insurance by 400 million by
2020”.
10
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
Insurance solutions for
disaster risk financing
3
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
Global natural catastrophe losses totalled USD 2 trillion*
over the last decade, with ~70% uninsured
Uninsured Losses
USD 1.36 trillion *
Insured Losses
USD 654 billion*
Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting and Cat Perils.
* in 2015 USD
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 5
Examples: major events in Asia – the cost to society
Thailand floods 2011
80%
20%
Insured
Uninsured
New Zealand EQ 2011
12%
88%
Insured
Uninsured
Philippines TC 2013
33%
67%
Insured
Uninsured
9%
GDP
1.5%
GDP
10%
GDP
2%
98%
Insured
Uninsured
Nepal EQ 2015
>25%
GDP
Source: sigma catastrophe database
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
Disasters place a significant burden on the public sector
6
Public physical
assets
Emergency
response
Assistance to
affected population
Foregone revenue
Uninsured private
assets
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
Governments' financing options: Post-event vs pre-event
A balanced approach is needed
Post event Pre event
Reserve Fund
Contingent
Financing
Risk transfer
Budget
reallocation
Raise debt
Donor
assistance
Tax increases
"From an ex-post perspective, the availability of insurance offers the best mitigation approach
against real and fiscal consequences of disasters"
World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 5564, 2011
7
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
Macro
Examples of recent new insurance schemes
8
economic
loss
gap
Insurance schemes and pools to
increase insurance penetration for
private assets
Flood Re UK
Morocco Cat Insurance Pool
Simplified products to reach the poor
Kenya Livestock
Insurance Programme
Micro
Risk transfer solutions for
(sub)sovereigns to cover
emergency response or public
infrastructure costs
African Risk Capacity
Heilongjiang Disaster Relief Cover
Pools
Insurance type Description
8
insured
loss
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 9
Case study UK: National flood insurance scheme
(Flood Re)
Solution features
 The UK national flood insurance scheme (Flood Re) is a public
private partnership between the UK government and the insurance
industry.
 The objective is to provide affordable flood insurance to residential
homeowners regardless of their flood exposure for homes build
prior to 2009.
 Flood insurance prices are based on the insured’s tax bracket, not
exposure.
 Insurers can opt to cede flood risk to Flood Re at fixed price
according to council tax bands.
 Flood Re is designed to manage UK’s flood exposure up to a 200
year level which translates into a claims paying capacity of £2.1 bn.
Involved parties
 Legal framework: UK government
 Distribution: UK insurers
 Risk pool: Flood Re, a private reinsurance pool with a public
function, capitalized by UK insurers
 Reinsurance of scheme: international reinsurance markets, Swiss
Re is the co-lead reinsurer
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 10
Case study China: Heilongjiang provincial government
multi-peril parametric disaster relief coverage
Solution features
 Provincial government insures its fiscal contingent liabilities
for disaster relief in 28 counties who are classified as less
poverty resilient.
 Payouts to be used for disaster relief and post disaster
reconstructions of properties and infrastructure.
 Covered perils: Flood, excess rain, drought and temperature.
 Parametric triggers designed to reflect significant yield
losses of agricultural crops based on satellite flood footprint
index, precipitation index, drought (temperature &
precipitation) and low temperature.
 Annual contract
 Sum Insured: USD 360m
 Swiss Re has 80% quota share reinsurance
Involved parties
 Reinsurer and product designer: Swiss Re
 Calculation agent: China Meteorological Agency
 Insured: Sunlight Agro Mutual Insurance
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
11
Case study Kenya Livestock Insurance Program (KLIP):
Livestock protection for smallholder farmers in Kenya
Solution features
 KLIP is an innovative and scalable insurance solution to help
pastoralists bring their cattle through severe times of droughts.
 The pilot was launched in October 2015 in the two counties and
protects livestock of 5,000 households. From 2016 onwards
KLIP will be extended across the whole country.
 KLIP is 100% funded by the Kenyan government, making it free
for pastoralists who are registered under the Hunger Safety Net
Program and covers 5 tropical livestock units per household.
 KLIP works as an index-based livestock insurance scheme. The
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is an index of
plant “greenness”. The payout is to protect livestock from the
effects drought rather than compensating for its death.
Involved parties
 The Ministry of Agriculture (framework, premiums).
 Local insurers; Swiss Re lead reinsurer
 The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), World Bank
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
Why insurance matters for
disaster risk financing
12
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
Why insurance matters for disaster risk financing
13
"Major natural catastrophes have large and significant negative effects on economic
activity... However, it is mainly the uninsured losses that drive the subsequent
macroeconomic cost, whereas sufficiently insured events are inconsequential in terms of
foregone output."
Working Paper No. 394, December 2012
"Natural disasters can damage sovereign creditworthiness”
"One way to mitigate the economic and ratings impact of natural disasters [on sovereign
creditworthiness] is catastrophe insurance.«
Storm Alert: Natural Disasters Can Damage Sovereign Creditworthiness, September 2015
"Finance Ministries play a pivotal role in DRM strategies [by] ensuring proper fiscal
management of disaster risks by anticipating potential budgetary impacts and planning
ahead to ensure adequate financial capacity and rapid release of funds, thus enabling
emergency response, reconstruction of public assets and infrastructure, and targeted
financial assistance."
Disaster Risk Assessment and Risk Financing - A G20/OECD Methodological Framework
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
S&P calculates potential sovereign rating impact of
natural catastrophes
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
Dominican Republic…
Chile EQ
Bangladesh TC
Japan EQ
Vietnam TC
Peru EQ
Thailand FL
Turkey EQ
Philippines EQ
Dominican Republic…
Italy EQ
Mexico EQ
Hungary FL
Israel EQ
Colombia EQ
New Zealand EQ
Indonesia EQ
Portugal EQ
Pakistan EQ
Philippines TC
Austria EQ
Mexico TC
Greece EQ
Hypothetical rating downgrade in notches
Net rating impact (select cases with more than 1/4 notch impact)
Flood
Tropical Cyclone
Earthquake
Source: Swiss Re, Standard & Poor's calculations. © Standard & Poor's 2015.
S&P states:
“…natural disasters (earthquakes, tropical
storms, floods, and winter storms), which can be
expected once in every 250 years, can weaken
sovereign ratings”.
“Insurance coverage can act as a mitigant”
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
Benefits of insurance
15
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
• Financial benefits
– Guaranteed access to required funds for recovery (up to agreed limits)
– Planning certainty (premiums can be budgeted every year)
– No payback obligation (as opposed to financing solutions)
• Operational benefits
– Professional loss assessment (for indemnity insurance)
– Established distribution mechanism for payouts
– Fast payout, flexible use (for parametric insurance)
• Information benefit for overall disaster management
– Insurance puts a price tag on risks
– Facilitates integrated risk management
Benefits of insurance
16
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 17
The broader role of insurance in disaster
risk management
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 18
General Public Release
IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016
Legal notice
19
©2016 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You are not permitted to create any modifications
or derivative works of this presentation or to use it for commercial or other public purposes
without the prior written permission of Swiss Re.
The information and opinions contained in the presentation are provided as at the date of
the presentation and are subject to change without notice. Although the information used
was taken from reliable sources, Swiss Re does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy
or comprehensiveness of the details given. All liability for the accuracy and completeness
thereof or for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information contained in this
presentation is expressly excluded. Under no circumstances shall Swiss Re or its Group
companies be liable for any financial or consequential loss relating to this presentation.

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Disaster Risk Financing and the Role of Insurance, Esther BAUR

  • 1. General Public Release The role of insurance in disaster risk financing IDRC Davos, 31 August 2016 Esther Baur, Swiss Re, Global Partnerships General Public Release
  • 2. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 New agreements calling for stronger role of insurance “…promote mechanisms for disaster risk transfer and insurance …. in order to reduce the financial impact of disasters …” On insurance: “This would create increased liquidity for early action, instead of relying on post-crisis "relief-itemised" assistance”. “Strengthen the capacity of domestic financial institutions to encourage and expand access to banking, insurance and financial services for all”. “The G7 initiative on climate risk insurance aims to increase the number of people covered by this kind of insurance by 400 million by 2020”. 10
  • 3. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 Insurance solutions for disaster risk financing 3
  • 4. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 Global natural catastrophe losses totalled USD 2 trillion* over the last decade, with ~70% uninsured Uninsured Losses USD 1.36 trillion * Insured Losses USD 654 billion* Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting and Cat Perils. * in 2015 USD
  • 5. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 5 Examples: major events in Asia – the cost to society Thailand floods 2011 80% 20% Insured Uninsured New Zealand EQ 2011 12% 88% Insured Uninsured Philippines TC 2013 33% 67% Insured Uninsured 9% GDP 1.5% GDP 10% GDP 2% 98% Insured Uninsured Nepal EQ 2015 >25% GDP Source: sigma catastrophe database
  • 6. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 Disasters place a significant burden on the public sector 6 Public physical assets Emergency response Assistance to affected population Foregone revenue Uninsured private assets
  • 7. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 Governments' financing options: Post-event vs pre-event A balanced approach is needed Post event Pre event Reserve Fund Contingent Financing Risk transfer Budget reallocation Raise debt Donor assistance Tax increases "From an ex-post perspective, the availability of insurance offers the best mitigation approach against real and fiscal consequences of disasters" World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 5564, 2011 7
  • 8. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 Macro Examples of recent new insurance schemes 8 economic loss gap Insurance schemes and pools to increase insurance penetration for private assets Flood Re UK Morocco Cat Insurance Pool Simplified products to reach the poor Kenya Livestock Insurance Programme Micro Risk transfer solutions for (sub)sovereigns to cover emergency response or public infrastructure costs African Risk Capacity Heilongjiang Disaster Relief Cover Pools Insurance type Description 8 insured loss
  • 9. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 9 Case study UK: National flood insurance scheme (Flood Re) Solution features  The UK national flood insurance scheme (Flood Re) is a public private partnership between the UK government and the insurance industry.  The objective is to provide affordable flood insurance to residential homeowners regardless of their flood exposure for homes build prior to 2009.  Flood insurance prices are based on the insured’s tax bracket, not exposure.  Insurers can opt to cede flood risk to Flood Re at fixed price according to council tax bands.  Flood Re is designed to manage UK’s flood exposure up to a 200 year level which translates into a claims paying capacity of £2.1 bn. Involved parties  Legal framework: UK government  Distribution: UK insurers  Risk pool: Flood Re, a private reinsurance pool with a public function, capitalized by UK insurers  Reinsurance of scheme: international reinsurance markets, Swiss Re is the co-lead reinsurer
  • 10. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 10 Case study China: Heilongjiang provincial government multi-peril parametric disaster relief coverage Solution features  Provincial government insures its fiscal contingent liabilities for disaster relief in 28 counties who are classified as less poverty resilient.  Payouts to be used for disaster relief and post disaster reconstructions of properties and infrastructure.  Covered perils: Flood, excess rain, drought and temperature.  Parametric triggers designed to reflect significant yield losses of agricultural crops based on satellite flood footprint index, precipitation index, drought (temperature & precipitation) and low temperature.  Annual contract  Sum Insured: USD 360m  Swiss Re has 80% quota share reinsurance Involved parties  Reinsurer and product designer: Swiss Re  Calculation agent: China Meteorological Agency  Insured: Sunlight Agro Mutual Insurance
  • 11. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 11 Case study Kenya Livestock Insurance Program (KLIP): Livestock protection for smallholder farmers in Kenya Solution features  KLIP is an innovative and scalable insurance solution to help pastoralists bring their cattle through severe times of droughts.  The pilot was launched in October 2015 in the two counties and protects livestock of 5,000 households. From 2016 onwards KLIP will be extended across the whole country.  KLIP is 100% funded by the Kenyan government, making it free for pastoralists who are registered under the Hunger Safety Net Program and covers 5 tropical livestock units per household.  KLIP works as an index-based livestock insurance scheme. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is an index of plant “greenness”. The payout is to protect livestock from the effects drought rather than compensating for its death. Involved parties  The Ministry of Agriculture (framework, premiums).  Local insurers; Swiss Re lead reinsurer  The International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), World Bank
  • 12. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 Why insurance matters for disaster risk financing 12
  • 13. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 Why insurance matters for disaster risk financing 13 "Major natural catastrophes have large and significant negative effects on economic activity... However, it is mainly the uninsured losses that drive the subsequent macroeconomic cost, whereas sufficiently insured events are inconsequential in terms of foregone output." Working Paper No. 394, December 2012 "Natural disasters can damage sovereign creditworthiness” "One way to mitigate the economic and ratings impact of natural disasters [on sovereign creditworthiness] is catastrophe insurance.« Storm Alert: Natural Disasters Can Damage Sovereign Creditworthiness, September 2015 "Finance Ministries play a pivotal role in DRM strategies [by] ensuring proper fiscal management of disaster risks by anticipating potential budgetary impacts and planning ahead to ensure adequate financial capacity and rapid release of funds, thus enabling emergency response, reconstruction of public assets and infrastructure, and targeted financial assistance." Disaster Risk Assessment and Risk Financing - A G20/OECD Methodological Framework
  • 14. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 S&P calculates potential sovereign rating impact of natural catastrophes 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Dominican Republic… Chile EQ Bangladesh TC Japan EQ Vietnam TC Peru EQ Thailand FL Turkey EQ Philippines EQ Dominican Republic… Italy EQ Mexico EQ Hungary FL Israel EQ Colombia EQ New Zealand EQ Indonesia EQ Portugal EQ Pakistan EQ Philippines TC Austria EQ Mexico TC Greece EQ Hypothetical rating downgrade in notches Net rating impact (select cases with more than 1/4 notch impact) Flood Tropical Cyclone Earthquake Source: Swiss Re, Standard & Poor's calculations. © Standard & Poor's 2015. S&P states: “…natural disasters (earthquakes, tropical storms, floods, and winter storms), which can be expected once in every 250 years, can weaken sovereign ratings”. “Insurance coverage can act as a mitigant”
  • 15. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 Benefits of insurance 15
  • 16. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 • Financial benefits – Guaranteed access to required funds for recovery (up to agreed limits) – Planning certainty (premiums can be budgeted every year) – No payback obligation (as opposed to financing solutions) • Operational benefits – Professional loss assessment (for indemnity insurance) – Established distribution mechanism for payouts – Fast payout, flexible use (for parametric insurance) • Information benefit for overall disaster management – Insurance puts a price tag on risks – Facilitates integrated risk management Benefits of insurance 16
  • 17. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 17 The broader role of insurance in disaster risk management
  • 18. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 18
  • 19. General Public Release IDRC Davos | 31 August 2016 Legal notice 19 ©2016 Swiss Re. All rights reserved. You are not permitted to create any modifications or derivative works of this presentation or to use it for commercial or other public purposes without the prior written permission of Swiss Re. The information and opinions contained in the presentation are provided as at the date of the presentation and are subject to change without notice. Although the information used was taken from reliable sources, Swiss Re does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or comprehensiveness of the details given. All liability for the accuracy and completeness thereof or for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information contained in this presentation is expressly excluded. Under no circumstances shall Swiss Re or its Group companies be liable for any financial or consequential loss relating to this presentation.