The document discusses the use of strategic foresight and anticipatory governance to help achieve the UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) given increasing complexity, interdependency, and uncertainty in the world. It outlines four key applications of foresight: 1) national development visioning and strategy, 2) strategic management and policy coherence, 3) adaptive and resilient planning through scenario planning, and 4) public service innovation. The document provides two examples of foresight work: developing resilience plans for small island developing states in the Pacific and fostering innovation in Mauritius' civil service.

1. Empowered Futures
The Use of Foresight in
SDG Implementation
Bangkok, Thailand
24 October, 2016

2. Our Goals
“In 2030, there will be a guaranteed, safe
and healthy path through quality education
for a girl from a disadvantaged background –
with real prospects for dignified job
afterwards”

3. Three Problems
• Incessant Change
• High Complexity
• Increased Interdependency

4. Environmental
Change

5. 1992
2007
TechnologicalChange

6. Social
Change

7. Complexity…

8. Global Interdependency

9. Classical Planning
(problematized):
• The world has gone VUCA: volatility,
uncertainty, complexity & ambiguity reign
supreme
• Experts and models get it wrong too often,
knowledge is distributed in the system
• Change, disruption, shocks are the new
normal, and it comes from all over the place
• The future is in the making (emerging)

10. Anticipatory Governance
• To better anticipate change, disruptions &
shocks
• To identify risks & opportunities
• To be more aware of the environment in
which one implements its policies &
projects
• To recognize the longer-term implications
of strategic and policy decisions

11. Adaptive Governance
• To identify strategic opportunities
• To choose resilient strategies, policies &
projects
• To adapt flexibly to a changing reality
• To mitigate risks and capitalize on
opportunities
• To maintain coherence

12. Enter Strategic Foresight
• Foresight-driven understanding, strategy & execution
• An actionable basis for adaptive strategic planning
• A framework to cope with uncertainty while avoiding
‘shell-shock’ & ‘doing business as usual’

13. Applied Foresight:
• On and over-the-horizon scanning, trend spotting
• Exploring alternative futures
• Developing alternative scenarios
• Testing the relevance and resilience of existing strategies
• Designing adaptive (‘what-if’) policies
• Constantly keeping a finger on the pulse
• Foresight  Insight  Action

14. 1. Visioning Processes (national development strategies,
organisational vision, the World We Want, etc.)
2. Strategic Management and Policy Coherence (The Future
of…, policy coordination, whole-of-government, etc.)
3. Adaptive and Resilient Planning (scenario planning,
backcasting, stress testing, etc.)
4. Public Service Innovation (creative means to explore the
interaction of key trends in alternative futures)
4 Applications of foresight in SDG

15. Resilient Planning for SIDS in
the Pacific

16. Towards an Innovative
Civil Service in Mauritius

17. If you want to know more
Visit us online at
www.undp.org/publicservice
on Facebook (GCPSE)