Foresight is a veritable ingredient for maintaining competitive advantage in a highly competitive world. The presentation showcases the strengths in deploying foresight for assured growth.

1. FORESIGHT; THE SPRINGBOARD
TO MAINTAINING PACE AND
ACHIEVING SUCCESS.
Chioma Chigozie-Okwum
Department of Computer Science
Spiritan University Nneochi, Abia State.
Chiomaokwum@gmail.com
08038798153

2. Lecture Content
 Abstract
 Introduction
 Theories and practice of Foresight
 Methods in Foresight
 Case Studies.
 Summary

3. Executive Summary
- The paper identifies foresight as a veritable tool that when adopted
ensures that the present is harnessed, studied, analysed and used in
creating several versions of the future.
- The study identified that Foresight, affords the luxury of choosing
between options of the future, identifying the preferred future and
channel plans and strategies to ensure a smooth sail into the preferred
future.
- Foresight also enables futurists to make contingency plans for both
foreseen and unforeseen eventualities that may occur.
- The paper x-rays two case studies in an attempt to understand the
impact of foresight in pushing consistent success in a competitive
world.

4. Concept of Foresight.
- “Foresight is the umbrella term for methodologies and approaches that take volatility,
uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity as their starting point, explore possible and probable
futures, including a preferred one, and generate insights and ‘cross-sights’ that enable
transformative actions in the here and now”.
- . Owning the future may not be certain but incorporating the future in planning can help
maintain competitive advantage.
- The competitive environment is dynamic, it is constantly changing, but foresight enables you
seize opportunities ahead of competitors when they arrive the future.
- While competitors are caught unawares, strategic foresight enables the individual to maintain
the lead.

5. Foresight continued……
- Foresight involves more than forecasts and predictions.
- Forecasting and prediction succeed foresight, followed by Planning,
strategizing and then possible implementation of the preferred future.
- It entails a holistic study and understanding of future change drivers and
influencers, and preparing for both the expected and unexpected; as well as
foreseen and foreseen events.
- Foresight ensures a contingency plan is in place, and nothing takes the
individual, country, region or enterprise who deploys foresight by surprise.
- While competitors are struggling with occurrences when they arrive the
future, with foresight, contingency plans are in place for foreseen and even
unforeseen events.
- Foresight creates resilience, agility, and adaptability; these ensure
competitive advantage.

6. Foresight applications fall broadly into four categories:
Strategic Foresight: Strategic foresight affords the strategic forecast of a particular future for a
key driver and development of a detailed recommendations for policy makers.
 Participatory Foresight: Participatory Foresight is most often concerned with identifying a
preferred future, from among many possible (and undesirable) ones.
 Revolutionary’ Foresight: Revolutionary Foresight aim to open up the political space for
crucial decisions about aspects of the future to non-elitist stakeholders and non-traditional
decision-makers, in order to include more views and interests and generate a more solid and
sustainable foundation for collective action.
 Transformative Foresight: It is the most radical, creative and aspirational application of
foresight. Transformative Foresight is about actively creating and shaping the desired change.

7. Theories and practice of foresight.
One theoretical tool for understanding how firms maintain competitive advantage amid rapid
change is the dynamic capabilities theory of Teece et al., (1997).
The dynamic capability theory maintains that, in high-velocity environments, performance does
not rest solely on the possession of difficult assets, but rather the ability to reconfigure those
assets
Specifically, dynamic capabilities to cope with the emerging future rest on three micro-foundations:
sensing, seizing, and reconfiguring.
- Sensing entails the ability to sense opportunities and threats in the environment, requiring
“perception” and “attention”.
- Seizing, affords the ability of to take advantage of nascent opportunities, Foresight in
practice.
- Reconfiguration is the ability to recombine assets and restructure in order to match the
environment.

8. Theories and practice of foresight.
The practice of foresight involves:
1) Monitoring existing problems;
 2) Highlighting emerging threats;
 3) Identifying promising opportunities;
 4) Testing the resilience of policies,
 6) Defining strategic plans and execution

9. The Foresight Model

10. Foresight Model continued.
- Input: what is going on?
This level tries to understand the status quo, it seeks to understand what current trends
are and how the environment supports the present trends. Approaches used here include
Delphi method, Environmental scanning which uses STEEP analysis method, etc.
- Analytical: what seems to be happening?
Analytical methods are used to categories the information obtained during the input
stage.
 - Interpretive: what’s really happening?
Interpretive methods seek to make sense of the information that has been collected and
categorised in the input and analytical steps, in a more in-depth way.
- Prospective: what might happen?
Methods at this level are seeking to develop a view of alternative futures for an
organisation. Methods used here include scenario planning, visioning and backcasting.

11. Case Studies
Case 1:
 With an 85% market share on cameras and 90% photo chemical film market share, why did
KODAK file for bankruptcy in 2012?
 As at 2001, Kodak acquired OFOTO, a photo sharing site similar to INSTAGRAM of today, what
happened to OFOTO? Why is Facebook ahead with Instagram?
Case 2:
 What is the International Business Machine (IBM) known for over the decades?

12. Case Studies
Case 1: When in 1975, Steven Sasson, a Kodak engineer presented his latest invention, the digital
camera to the company management, the board had this to say “ Even though the Digital camera
as presented is a very cute tech, Don’t tell anyone about it”.
Case 2: Tom Watson founder of IBM was a futurist, he said and I quote “ I had a clear
picture of what the company would look like when it was done, I asked myself how a company
which looked like what I envisioned would act, I realised that for IBM to become great, it would
have to act like a great company long before it ever became one”

13. Takeaways from the case studies:
 While one company envisioned and worked towards actualizing its preferred future, the other
tried to force the future to fit into the present.
 While one company understood that technology and society were key drivers of the future, the
other remained in denial.
 While one company transformed, adapted, and evolved, the other remained unsusceptible to
change.
 While one company keyed into disruptive techs, and deployed agility in welcoming the future,
the other stuck to the past.

14. Summary
 1. Are futures shaped by technology?
 2. Is society shaping futures by deciding which technologies are relevant?
 3. Are these two leading factors (technology and society) impacting government’s ability to
influence the future?
 4. If futurists are not taking charge, and governments are not able to have a voice, who takes
responsibility for the future?
 5. If futures shaping is left to technology and society, are futures left to arrive?

15. Thank you for Listening!