The document discusses scenario development as a structured approach to assessing uncertain futures. Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but rather plausible descriptions of how the future may develop based on logical assumptions and alternative choices. There are different types of scenarios that can be qualitative or quantitative, developed through various methods over different time horizons and frames. Successful scenario analyses use appropriate qualitative and quantitative approaches, combine scientific rigor with creative thinking, and are tailored to meet specific goals. The document then poses questions about regional scenarios for agriculture and food security under climate change and outlines potential outputs including coherent regional scenarios and engagement of stakeholders.

1. CCAFS Scenarios Development workshop:
What, why and how?
Scenario development is an approach to having a
structured discussion / assessment of an uncertain future
at one or more specified spatial and temporal level(s)
Although they address uncertainty, scenarios are not
predictions, forecasts or projections. Thus, they are not
‘true’ or correct/wrong – only plausible

2. Scenarios are thus ‘possible’ and often simplified
descriptions or models of how the future may develop,
based on:
• an internally consistent (logical) set of assumptions about key
driving forces and the relationships between them
• incorporating new factors and alternative choices, which stem
from what we know about the past & the present
• analyses that make optimal use of both words and numbers.

3. Scenarios...
There are:
• different kinds of scenarios (quant/qual or iterative mix of both)
• different types of qual scenarios (visioning/normative, exploratory, etc.)
• different methods of developing scenarios (desktop by small group; wide
consultation, then scenarios; scenarios, then testing with wider reference
group, etc)
• different time horizons (2020; 2030; 2050; 2100)
• different time frames for developing scenarios (3 hrs to 4 years)
• coupled or uncoupled global-regional scenarios
• different approaches to updating (relevance)
• BUT they are all structured discussions about the future.

4. Successful scenarios analyses...
 use an appropriate combination of qualitative (e.g. storylines)
and quantitative (e.g. modelling) approaches
 combine scientific rigour with creative flair
 enhance research and policy/planning agendas
 are tailor-made to meet the goals of the scenario exercise
 Are designed to stimulate creative, out-of-the-box thinking about
the future
 Must be shared/communicated to the users and the wider
audience for which they were developed so they can enter the
wider public discourse

5. CCAFS Regional Scenarios
questions
1. What are the plausible future changes in environmental and
socioeconomic conditions that will affect agriculture and
food security?
2. What elements of global scenarios are most important for
regional-level food security analyses?
3. How can the concerns and insights of local actors best be
heard at regional and international levels?

6. CCAFS Outputs
Sets of scenarios that are coherent with global assumptions to
ca. 2030 for each target region, and which reflect plausible
agriculture and food security development pathways under
changing climate at regional levels.
Teams of regional and national stakeholders identified and
mobilized to undertake Program adaptation and mitigation
research.
Concepts and methods, reports, maps and policy briefs and
other interactive activities that can be used to engage the other
themes of CCAFS, other Programs of the CGIAR, and other
stakeholders in research design, delivery and analysis.