by Dawn Yip, Associate, Civil Service College, Singapore

1. Soulbreath Consulting•
Long-Term Planning in
Singapore

2. •
The Impetus
Long-term view since independence
Causes: Sense of fragility; resource scarcity
Enablers: First-generation leadership orientation; stable
political environment
2

3. •
Major national policies designed with long-term
timeframes
3
Land use
The Impetus: Examples
Retirement
Savings
Marriage & ProcreationEducation & skills

4. •
Evolution of National Planning
and Foresight
4
1960s and 70s: Led by political leadership
1980s and 90s: Shaped by civil servants;
foresight begins with scenario planning
2000s onwards: Foresight
expands; shift to intentional
stakeholder engagement

5. •
Scenario Planning
5
A structured process of developing alternative and
plausible stories about the future, to help rehearse
responses, deepen learning and strengthen strategy
robustness
Scenario 2
Today FutureScenario 1
Scenario 3

6. • 6
Questions?
Scenario Planning: Examples
SingaStore.com
•Governance: Pro-business.
Big biz, MNCs, emerging
technologies boost growth
and wages.
•Distribution: Affluent
thrive; strong social
support; high GDP and
Gini
•Values: Material. More
support for those with
more economic potential
SingaGives.gov
•Governance: Important
public goods nationalised;
funded through reserves
•Distribution: Human
services thrive; low but
inclusive growth; foreign
businesses wait and see.
•Values: Social solidarity;
equal access to dignified
life and well-being
WikiCity.sg
•Governance: Coalition govt
focused on external and
security functions.
•Distribution: Communities
meet needs. Traditional
MNCs leave. High
economic potential and
some promising enterprises.
•Values: Self activating, self
correcting, identity-based
communities
Institute of Policy Studies: Prism Scenarios
http://lkyspp2.nus.edu.sg/ips//wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2013/06/Prism-Project_IPS-Prism-Report.pdf

7. •
Ministry of Manpower: SharedFuture Scenarios
https://www.cscollege.gov.sg/Knowledge/Documents/Events/
PSGX2016/05A%20Day%201%20MOM%20Future%20Scenarios%202025.pdf
7
Scenario Planning: Examples

8. •
Evolution of National Planning
and Foresight
8
1960s and 70s: Led by political leadership
1980s and 90s: Shaped by civil servants;
foresight begins with scenario planning
2000s onwards: Foresight
expands; shift to intentional
stakeholder engagement

9. •
Foresight: Examples
9
FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGIES THAT MAKE US “BETTER
THAN HUMAN” COULD RADICALLY
TRANSFORM OUR LIVES
HUMAN
AUGMENTATION
• Human augmentation technologies are those that make
humans better, either by restoring an impaired function to
average levels, or by raising it beyond the norm for humans
• Examples include cognitive-enhancing drugs (nootropics),
bionic limbs and eyes, genetic screening to select for
desirable traits and robotic suits with industrial and
military applications
WHERE WE ARE
• With large research investments from major national and
corporate players, human augmentation technologies
look set to grow dramatically in efficacy and fall
dramatically in price
• For example, the price for sequencing a person’s genome
fell from US$95 million in 2001 to just over US$1,000 in
2015, paving the way for genetic screening and selective
modification in the mainstream
WHAT WE KNOW
• How will economic, political and ethical issues affect
the degree of adoption of and access to human
augmentation technologies?
• As new technologies overtake human capabilities, which
set of human skills and traits will remain relevant in
the workplace? Will skills and traits such as empathy,
integrity and the ability to connect matter more?
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
GLOBAL CARBON REGIME
• Studies indicate that global warming will cause rising
sea levels and more extreme weather
• Second-order effects on food chains, biodiversity and
even disease patterns are not well understood, but will
almost certainly be disruptive
• The post-2020 global climate agreement was concluded
in Paris to keep warming below 2o
C
WHERE WE ARE
• Climate change is likely to intensify environmental and
socio-political stresses, and even destabilise countries (e.g.
food and water shortages, disease and climate refugees)
• As an island-state, Singapore is vulnerable to the effects of
climate change – rainfall patterns are already more volatile
• Singapore pledged in the 2015 Paris Agreement to cut 2030
emissions intensity by 36% from 2005 levels and reduce
overall emissions from 2030
WHAT WE KNOW
• How will global cooperation progress in reality? Will
Singapore be held to greater commitments over time?
• How might international rules and pressure affect
Singapore’s economic competitiveness?
• What if climate change projections exceed worst-
case scenarios?
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW
FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT
CARBON CONSTRAINTS WILL RESHAPE
THE WORLD, BUT MAY NOT AVERT THE
WORST CONSEQUENCES
FUTURE OF THE ECONOMY
NEW WORK ARRANGEMENTS
MAY REPLACE MANY TRADITIONAL
EMPLOYEE-EMPLOYER RELATIONSHIPS
PEOPLE AS
BUSINESSES
• Instead of working full-time for a single employer,
individuals can increasingly sell skills or expertise
by time or by job (e.g. project or task)
• The sharing economy offers opportunities to monetise
under-utilised assets (e.g. leasing out spare rooms),
and create new markets for goods and services
(e.g. enabling more people to rent a room)
WHERE WE ARE
• In some instances, it is cheaper to hire contract workers
than salaried ones and use newer and unconventional
services over established businesses (e.g. AirBnB
accommodation, versus hotels)
• People may choose to have a portfolio of different
individual tasks for pay, instead of holding a “secure” job
• As work-matching and asset-sharing platforms become
more important, there will be great demand for deep
expertise to design such systems
WHAT WE KNOW
• How pervasive will new work arrangements be?
• Will there be more frequent bouts of underemployment
or unemployment for those who no longer hold a single,
full time job?
• How will citizens respond to new labour arrangements?
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW
FUTURE OF SINGAPOREAN SOCIETY
AGEING PRESENTS NEW OPPORTUNITIES
AND CHALLENGES FOR SOCIETY AND
GOVERNANCE
AGEING IN
SINGAPORE
• By 2035,
and abov
• An ageing
hinder ec
• Families a
WHERE W
• Public sp
and infra
• Improvem
tomorrow
• The futur
and finan
power an
WHAT W
• Can socie
urban env
• Can the e
new cons
ageing de
• How will
institutio
• Can a new
emerging
WHAT W
Centre for Strategic Futures: Driving Forces Cards 2035
https://www.csf.gov.sg/our-work/Publications/Publication/Index/driving-forces-cards-2035

10. •
Foresight: Examples
10
What if marriage went out of fashion?
What if a drug could make you more productive?
Would you work in Visakhapatnam?
Can you build a business with this?Do we still need banks?
Are insects the future of food?
Centre for Strategic Futures: Emerging Strategic Issues
https://www.csf.gov.sg/our-work/Publications/Publication/Index/esi-project-2.0

11. • 11
• Your name
• What you do
• Your chosen picture
• Describe it – what do you see?
• Interpret it – what does it say about your hope/aspiration for life in
Singapore in 2040?
Adaptive
school
Aspirational
school
❖ “See the world as it is, not
as you wish it to be.”
❖ Assumption: You have little
control/influence over
outcomes.
❖ Approach: Think about
what the future might be
(probable/plausible), then
adapt yourself to it.
❖ “The best way to predict the
future is to create it.”
❖ Assumption: You have some
control/influence over
outcomes.
❖ Approach: Think about what
future you desire (preferred),
then make it happen.
Approaches to Foresight

12. •
Foresight: Examples
12
CHANGING MINDSETS,
DEEPENING RELATIONSHIPS
The Report of the Remaking Singapore Committee
1999
2003
2013

13. • 13
Shared mindset and language
Culture that is hospitable to new ideas and innovation
Contribution of foresight

14. • 14
Relevance: Translating foresight into public policy
Reach: Shifting from ‘elite’ process to broad engagement
Challenge of foresight

15. • 15
CONTACT INFORMATION
Dawn Yip
Email: dawn@soulbreathconsulting.com
Web: http://soulbreathconsulting.com