This presentation was used in the GFAR webinar on "Beyond decision making: Foresight as a process for improving attitude towards change" -- The announcement blogpost was published here: https://blog.gfar.net/2017/06/07/gfar-webinar-beyond-decision-making-foresight-as-a-process-for-improving-attitude-towards-change/ You can find the full recording of this webinar here: https://youtu.be/8tzz5vNEhZ4

1. GFAR-Secretariat@fao.org
GFAR Webinar
Beyond decision making:
Foresight as a process for improving
attitude towards change

2. Presenters
• Oluwabunmi Ajilore - Introduction (GFAR Secretariat)
• Tanja Hichert (Stellenbosch University)
• Katindi Sivi Njonjo (LongView Consult, Kenya)
• Robin Bourgeois (CIRAD/GovInn)
• Q & A
Moderators: Emmie Wachira (YPARD)/Peter Casier (GFAR)

3. Beyond decision making: Foresight as a process for
improving attitude towards change
What is foresight?
• In plain terms, foresight is a term often used
to describe a broad range of works that
looks at exploring what the future might
look like.

4. Foresight as seen by GFAR
•A systematic, participatory and multi-
disciplinary approach to explore mid- to
long-term futures and drivers of change.
- http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload/315951/Glossary%20of%20Terms.pdf

5. Why this webinar?
•The webinar aims to bring together foresight
experts with field experience and other actors
interested in foresight, to interact and share
their views on foresight as a method to
influence change.

6. GFAR WEBINAR: BEYOND DECISION-
MAKING: FORESIGHT AS A PROCESS
FOR IMPROVING ATTITUDE TOWARDS
CHANGE
Tanja Hichert
27 June 2017

7. Hichert & AssociatHichert & Associat
IT’S A VUCA WORLD
• Volatility reflects the speed and
turbulence of change.
• Uncertainty means that
outcomes, even from familiar
actions, are less predictable.
• Complexity indicates the
vastness of interdependencies in
globally connected economies
and societies.
• And ambiguity conveys the
multitude of options and
potential outcomes resulting
from them
McNulty

8. Hichert & AssociatHichert & Associat
… an interdisciplinary “collection
of methods, theories, and
findings” that helps people to
‘think constructively about the
future’ .
… “the rigorous art of imagining”
“…to pursue the unknown
FORESIGHT & FUTURES
THINKING
C Bland, J. & Westlake

9. Hichert & Associat
THE BENEFIT OF SCENARIOS
 Innovative thinking
Scenarios explore intractable or undiscussed uncertainties,
encouraging broader thinking and countering groupthink.
 Shared language
Scenarios create a shorthand terminology that can be understood
intuitively across and beyond an organisation.
 Increased cooperation
Scenarios incorporate multiple worldviews across traditional
language and cultural barriers, so creating the potential to achieve
fair process and deliver fair outcome.
 Avoidance of costly mistakes
The collective nature of scenario building is resource intensive, yet
considering 'what if?' is much cheaper and simpler than 'if only'
regrets.

10. Hichert & Associat
AT THE MOST BASIC LEVEL SCENARIOS
EXPLORE ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
The present The path The future
FORECAST
SCENARIOS

11. POLITICS FOR THE GREATER GOOD
“WALKING THE TALK”
STAGNANT &
ONE-DIMENSIONAL
ECONOMY
POLITICS FOR THE SELFISH FEW
GROWING &
DIVERSIFIED
ECONOMY
MKAKA NDI UCHI
“Land of milk & honey”
WOKANKHA
“Struggling”
WOTSALIRA
“Un-progressive”
MBOMBO
“Greedy”

12. World Economic Forum
2016 Global Risks
“Interconnection Map”

13. Hichert & Associat
‘AMBIENT FUTURES’

14. BUILD A RADAR SCREEN

16. Katindi Sivi-Njonjo
Use of foresight for changing attitude
LongView Consult, Kenya

17. 1. Use of foresight to change attitude
Awareness is a first revelatory/interpretive step.
• Using very simple everyday explanations of what foresight is or is
not is key to demystify the concept and demonstrate that we can
make it a conscious exercise to benefit from
• Learning about the basics of foresight such as how it works through
case studies, testimonials, movies but also to manage expectations
(that you are not predicting the future)
• Learning through variety of perspectives hence the need for a wider
inclusion of participants outside the main ‘knowledge domain’ of
the subject matter to enable peer learning.
• Doing trends analysis as a basis for discussing variables and how
they could pan out in the future statistically has also helped
jumpstart futures conversations. However, care should be taken not
to have a fixed mind-set about the variable.

18. 2. Effective foresight methods to employ
• There is no single superior foresight method. I use both statistically-based
and intuition-driven such as:
1. Trends analysis i.e. not just of the variables directly related to the subject
but also others indirectly involved in the subject matter
2. Scenarios story building
3. Visioning
4. Back casting
5. Strategic planning
• They are simple less technical methods for discussing the probable future. I
also explain and avoid all the jargon that comes with the methodologies

19. 3. Transition from pre-active forecast planners to
pro-active foresight seekers?
(i) Show the value of coming up with multiple
probabilities than one ‘official’ future by revisiting
common stories of the failure of prediction (e.g.
Brexit or relying on polls only to predict election
outcomes like the case of President Trump v.s
Hilary) and the better preparedness that comes
with foresight of multiple futures (e.g. shell case
study or more local examples).
Once people internalize the benefits and costs of
forecasts vs. foresight, they begin to get the incentive
to change.

20. Present
The ‘Official’
Future
What scenarios are not: Forecasts!
Source: Adopted from Schwartz (1991)

21. Multiple
Paths
Current realities
(Mental maps)
Many
futures,
different
truths
and
realities
Source: Adopted from Rafael Ramirez
Pastevents&
forcesshapingthe
present
Time
Bring the future back into the present (back-
casting) to strategize
Learningjourney
withhighlevel
analysis
Overall Scenarios framework
The present
Alternative Future Images

22. (ii) Enhance deep understanding of issues
The Iceberg analogy is a
practical way to enable
practitioners & decision
makers to adopt and use
a systems perspective to
deeply understand the
issues at hand and to
appreciate how different
variables are inter-
connected and what they
can produce (power of
imagination).

23. (iii) Once these simple conceptual issues are out of the way,
converting this knowledge to a habit of anticipating the
future, across all levels of the social realm is the more difficult
part. Learning by doing becomes the next logical step towards
this journey by focusing on the foresight exercise at hand.
Demonstrating possible consequences of non-action within
the stories and appealing to the mind about the possibilities
that could be achieved if the most strategic action is taken
usually incentivises people. This has to be very deliberate
More importantly however is to move beyond the foresight
stories to strategic action planning which involves solutions.

24. 4. Skills and resources required
There is no skill needed in my view. However, one needs to invest in:
• Time as a resource to engage because the process is rigorous and
time consuming
• Willingness to learn a new way of doing things… the rigidity is not
very helpful
• Consistent tracking of variables over a long period of time
especially in regions where data is a big challenge e.g. yields
• Learning by doing (through initial foresight exercise but also
challenging the group to undertake many more foresight exercises

25. 5. Role participatory foresight can play
• The whole foresight exercise has to include people from those different spaces
from the beginning (the planning stage; commitment to engaging in the
transformational nature of foresight)
Improving their ability to participate in the ways their futures are determined
• Understanding their rights and responsibilities especially for groups that are poor
and illiterate
Role can development organisations play in facilitating this
• Long term funding and human resource capability;
• continuous facilitation of foresight groups and identifying community leaders
within the group to learn from the facilitators and take on leadership roles during
the foresight exercises and for them to know that they are being prepared to
continue the process in the long-term.
Important Note: Training of trainers model did not work in the CCAFs project (an
foresight exercise done in East Africa to bring the nexus between food security,
environment and agriculture). It was done too soon after the exercise with people
who had interacted with the exercise just that once; it was facilitated by an outsider
who was an academic – it became too complex for simple farmers and government
policy makers to even follow what was going on).

26. Robin Bourgeois
Foresight and attitude change
CIRAD/Centre for the Study of Governance
Innovation (GovInn)

27. Future literacy
as a capability
Foresight and attitude to change
importance of “internal
drivers”, forces they can
control or influence
Importance of co-
elaborative processes,
users become doers
Local communities and
stakeholders confident in shaping
the future by acting in the present
Local people and organization
able to use the future to sense
and make sense of the present
The grassroots foresight initiative
Emancipation
as a process
Flores Island, Indonesia
Himalayan region, India
Pahlawan Island, Philippines

28. “Effective” foresight methods?
“Activist” objectives using
visioning (building a desirable
future), by NGOs and research
centers working with local
communities.
Community visioning and
action plan in Cambodia
Policy formulation
objectives using critical
uncertainties (building a
matrix of contextual
scenarios), by organizations
working with policy makers
Action research objectives using
co-elaborative scenario building
(creating a set of internal
scenarios), used when working
with multiple stakeholders for
territorial development
Regional scenario for East
Africa and South Asia
Grassroots foresight
initiative in Cameroon

29. Distribution of foresight cases according to the origin of the request

30. Future literacy
as a capability
Skills and resources
Emancipation
as a process
Clear conceptual
posture about
using the future
Practical training:
learning by doing
Immediate practice through
real field implementation
1
2
3
4
Design
Act
ReflectRevise

31. Inclusive decision making
Role of development organizations
Support skills development and a
new attitude of local stakeholders
Work on institutional arrangements
and habits of behavior
Future literacy
as a capability
Local communities and
stakeholders confident in shaping
the future by acting in the present
Local people and organization
able to use the future to sense
and make sense of the present
Emancipation
as a process
Decision making
Human Agency
Several factors influence and condition the possibility to
turn a newly acquired human capability into human agency
Facilitate the acquisition of futures literacy
AND simultaneously reduce the obstacles
that will impede future-literate
stakeholders to act as agents of change

32. Agent A
Agent B
Habits: disposition/
propensions à se
comporter d’une
certaine façon dans
certaines circonstances
- acquis
- innés
- innés
- acquis
Transaction: acquisition
et aliénation de droits
de propriété et de liberté
Règle:
X fait Y1
Institutions: systèmes
de règles établies et
encastrées qui
structurent les
interactions sociales
Institutions: système de
règles établies et
encastrées qui structurent
les interactions sociales
Institutions: système de
règles établies et
encastrées qui structurent
les interactions sociales
Structures
sociales
Essai de formalisation d’un cadre conceptuel (suite):
Des structures aux habits
ordre
Règle:
X fait Y3
Règle:
X fait Y4
Règle:
X fait Y2
Habits: disposition/
propensions à se
comporter d’une
certaine façon dans
certaines circonstances
conflit/dépendance
conflit/dépendance
contrainte
conformit
é
contrainte
conformit
é
Agent A
Agent B
Habits: disposition/
propensions à se
comporter d’une
certaine façon dans
certaines circonstances
- innés
- acquis
- acquis
- innés
Transaction: acquisition
et aliénation de droits
de propriété et de liberté
Règle:
X fait Y1
Institutions: systèmes
de règles établies et
encastrées qui
structurent les
interactions sociales
Institutions: système de
règles établies et
encastrées qui structurent
les interactions sociales
Institutions: système de
règles établies et
encastrées qui structurent
les interactions sociales
Structures
sociales
Essai de formalisation d’un cadre conceptuel:
Des habits aux structures
répétition
imitation
Règle:
X fait Y3
Règle:
X fait Y4
Règle:
X fait Y2
Habits: disposition/
propensions à se
comporter d’une
certaine façon dans
certaines circonstances
conflit/dépendance
conflit/dépendance

33. Questions/Remarks