y Mans Nilsson, Research Director, Stockholm Environment Institute

1. Integrated decision making – key
concepts and approaches, part 1
Prof. Måns Nilsson
UNDP Regional Knowledge Exchange:
Implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development
24-25 October 2016, Bangkok, Thailand

2. Enablers of integrated decision making
• Capacity to use new knowledge
– (expert competencies, engage with universities, think tanks
providing useable knowledge)
• Capacity for foresight
– (megatrends, scenario building, visioning)
• Capacity to coordinate
– (interdept committees, information systems, joined up
procedures)
• Capacity to take synergistic decisions
– (administrative effectiveness, planning and timing)
• Capacity to deal with complexity in implementation
– (adaptiveness, buy in from stakeholders)

3. Integrated decision making
– a policy-analytical perspective
Policy Policy
integration Coherence
Policy
Inputs
Policy
Processes
Policy learning
and alignment
Policy
Outputs
Implementation
Cross-sectoral
coordination
Synergistic
solutions
Policy
Inputs
Policy
Processes
Policy
Outputs
ImplementationPolicy B
Policy A

4. Barriers to integrated decision making
• Short termism
– have longer pay backs and take longer to prepare
• Public media–orientation
– more difficult to ”sell”
• New public management
– goal-evaluation-oriented incentives
• Bureaucratic practice
– rule-bound procedures

5. Integrated decision making – key
concepts and approaches, part 2
Prof. Måns Nilsson
UNDP Regional Knowledge Exchange:
Implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development
24-25 October 2016, Bangkok, Thailand

6. 6
An indivisible whole?

7. Milestone agreements in 2015 = a new global agenda.
Three key challenges:
Boost global demand, financing
for development, and activity in
the short-term and lay
foundations for sustained long-
term growth.
Implement the Sustainable
Development Goals.
Cut climate altering
emissions to achieve net
zero by 2050, and increase
resilience & adaptation.
7

8. From jurisdiction
to jurisdiction –
(international)
From sector
to sector –
(horizontal)
From target to
instrument to action
(institutional)
From sector
to sector –
(horizontal)
From global to national
to local (vertical)
Coherence / interactions in different dimensions

11. 1. Sector approach
maps interactions
with others’ goals
Source: GEOMAR/ ICSU (forthcoming)

12. 2. Nexus approach
maps interactions
between 3-4 goals
Source: Weitz et al 2014

13. 3. Whole-of-government
maps interactions
across all goals
Source: UNDESA 2015

14. As urban air quality declines, the risk of stroke, heart disease,
lung cancer, and chronic and acute respiratory diseases,
including asthma, increases for the people who live in them.
The highest urban air pollution levels are experienced in low-
and middle-income countries in Eastern Mediterranean and
South-East Asia Regions, with annual mean levels often
exceeding 5-10 times WHO limit.
3 million deaths attributable to ambient air pollution
4.3 million deaths attributable to household air
pollution

15. Health versus energy: interactions scoring takes
place at the target level
Positive interactions Negative interactions
7.2/7.3 → 3.9 [+3]
In nearly all cases, efforts to expand
renewables and promote energy efficiency
will lead to simultaneous reductions in air
pollutant emissions; thus the targets are
indivisible.
7.3 → 3.6 [-2]
Energy-saving measures related to ‘active
travel’ (cycling and walking) can counteract
efforts to reduce deaths and injuries from road
traffic accidents, if the provided infrastructure
is unsatisfactory.
7.3 → 3.4 [+2]
Energy-saving measures related to ‘active
travel’ (cycling and walking) aid the
achievement of improved health and well-
being by lowering rates of diabetes, heart
disease, dementia, and some cancers.
7.1 → 3.8 [+3]
Universal energy access is inextricably linked
to the provision of medicines and vaccines
since mechanized refrigeration is essential
for effectively storing them.
Source: adapted from IIASA /
ICSU (forthcoming)

16. Health versus energy: qualification of interaction
Dependencies
Geography • Dense urban areas in both developing and industrialized countries stand to gain the most
in terms of health impacts from implementing renewable energy and energy efficiency
policies.
• Air quality is both a local and a large-regional issue.
• Health impacts in one country to large degrees due to pollutant emissions in other
countries.
Governance • Air quality policies are often in existence but the implementation and enforcement is a
prevalent problem.
Technology • The relationship between energy provision and air quality is critically dependent on what
technology is used. Mitigating air pollution are widely available.
• Upgrading to modern fuels and clean cook-stoves would benefit the indoor air quality of
rural households in the least-developed countries.
Directionality • Bidirectional, but asymmetric.
• Energy use does impact health and well-being.
• The health and well-being of a society could influence what energy system changes are
politically feasible.
Key uncertainties • The impacts of the future climate on local atmospheric conditions
• The possibilities for retrofitting facilities to make them less polluting.
• Adoption rate of active lifestyles that are less dependent on motorized transport.

17. Health versus education
Key interactions
More and better education generally reinforcing health, at both the individual and community levels.
Micro-nutrient deficiencies a source of learning disabilities
Healthier children can attend and perform better in school.
N.B. important to consider the potentially counteracting impact of informal and non-formal education,
such that misinformation leading to poor health decisions (cf. anti-vaccine movement, fad diets).]
Dependencies
Geography Not really geography-dependent, though many remaining gains to be had in low income
country context
Higher income contexts education interacts with health eg via food goal ie poor diets
Time General education will generally have long-term effects on health. Specific education can
have immediate effects.
Technology New e-health technologies can improve health through better education.
Directionality Bidirectional
Poor education is associated with poor health choices
Poor health limits school attendance and educational achievement.
Source: UNU-IIGH / ICSU
(forthcoming)

18. Potential uses of results
– one sector entry point
• Useful to identify relationships with other
ministries
• Shared interests - where are your allies?
• Where can you reinforce and where do you
negotiate?
• Which clusters of synergy can become key
development priorities?

19. Whole of government approach
• Coping with thousands of interactions
• SEI is exploring the application of a semi-quantitative method
that identifies clusters of consistent targets based on how
they interact in a specific context (global/national/sector).
• Support to decision-making processes and development of
coherent national action plans
• Participatory process or expert-analysis

20. The influence on one target from making progress on
another target
• Select 2 targets for each SDG that are the most relevant for your country,
domestically.
• 1.3, 1.5, 2.2. 2.4, 3.4, 3.8, 4.1, 4.4, 5.4, 5.5, 6.5, 6.6, 7.2, 7.3, 8.4, 8.5, 9.4,
9.5, 10.1, 10.7, 11.1, 11.2, 12.1,12.5,13.1, 13.2, 14.1, 14.4, 15.2, 15.5, 16.4,
16.6, 17.11, 17.13
• Q:”if we have made progress on target x, how does this influence progress
on target y?”
• A structured, qualitative discussion on the relationship between different
level determinants of goals or drivers, as well as the dynamics and
interplay between these goals/drivers.
• Plausible combinations of multi-level goals/drivers, provides a foundation
for identifying future pathways for sustainable development.

21. 1.3 1.5 2.2 2.4 3.4 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.4 5.4 5.5
Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N Y N Y
1.3 Y
N
1.5 Y
N
2.2 Y
N
2.4 Y
N
3.4 Y
N
3.8 Y
N
3.9 Y
N
4.1 Y 1 -1 2 -2 0 0 0 0 1 -1 1 -1 3 -3 0 0 0 0 0
N -1 1 -1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 1 -1 1 -3 3 0 0 0 0 0
4.4 Y 2 -2 2 -2 0 0 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 0 0 1 -1 0
N -2 2 -2 2 0 0 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 -1 1 0 0 -1 1 0
5.4 Y
N
5.5 Y
N
6.5 Y 0 0 2 -2 0 0 2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
N 0 0 -2 2 0 0 -2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6.6 Y
N
7.2 Y 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1
N 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7.3 Y 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
N 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8.4 Y
N
Cross-impact balance

22. Potential uses of results
• to identify stable combinations of strategies
• to identify subsets of targets that unlock
progress in many other targets and where
critical clashes exist;
• as a tool for setting coherent plans and
strategies for comprehensive SDG
implementation

23. Source: Global Commission on the Economy and Climate, 2016,
based on Bhattacharya, Chattopadhyay and Nagrah (2016)
Example of Integrated strategy: Sustainable infrastructure
is at the heart of many SDGs