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Presentation at the American Enterprise Institute
May 13, 2024
Phillip L. Swagel
Director
The Outlook for the
Budget and the Economy
For more information about the event, see https://tinyurl.com/538d2ypp. These slides reprise graphics presented in Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook:
2024 to 2034 (February 2024), www.cbo.gov/publication/59710 and The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054 (March 2024), www.cbo.gov/publication/59711.
1
For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/59946#_idTextAnchor018. GDP = gross domestic product.
Total Deficit, Net Interest Outlays, and Primary Deficit
In CBO’s projections, the
total budget deficit—the
amount by which outlays
exceed revenues—equals
6.1 percent of GDP in 2034.
Net interest payments grow
in relation to GDP, reaching
3.9 percent of GDP in 2034.
Primary deficits increase in
2025, decline over the next
few years, and then increase
again.
2
For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/59946#_idTextAnchor023.
Federal Debt Held by the Public
Federal debt held by the
public increases each year
in CBO’s projections,
swelling to an all-time record
of 116 percent of GDP in
2034. In the two decades
that follow, growing deficits
are projected to cause
federal debt to soar to
172 percent of GDP by
2054.
3
For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/59946#_idTextAnchor164.
Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections of the 10-Year Deficit
Since May 2023
The cumulative deficit over
the 2024–2033 period is
$1.4 trillion smaller in CBO’s
current baseline projections
than it was in the agency’s
May 2023 projections,
mainly because of newly
enacted legislation that
reduced discretionary
outlays.
4
For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/59946#_idTextAnchor095.
Labor Force
Since last year, CBO has
increased its projection of
the size of the labor force in
2033 by 5.2 million people.
Most of that increase results
from higher projected net
immigration.
5
For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/60127#_idTextAnchor018.
Composition of Outlays, 2024 and 2054
In CBO’s projections for
2054, net interest costs
account for nearly a quarter
of all federal outlays, and
spending for the major
health care programs
accounts for two-fifths of
noninterest outlays, both of
which represent significant
increases from 2024.
6
For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/60127#_idTextAnchor034.
Population Growth and the Demographic Factors
That Contribute to It
In CBO’s projections, deaths
exceed births beginning in
2040. As a result, without
immigration the population
would shrink thereafter.
7
For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/60127#_idTextAnchor041.
Average Annual Growth of Real Potential GDP and Its Components
Real potential GDP is
projected to grow more
slowly from 2024 to 2054
than it has, on average, over
the past 30 years. That
decline is explained by
slower growth in the
potential labor force and in
potential labor force
productivity.

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The Outlook for the Budget and the Economy

  • 1. Presentation at the American Enterprise Institute May 13, 2024 Phillip L. Swagel Director The Outlook for the Budget and the Economy For more information about the event, see https://tinyurl.com/538d2ypp. These slides reprise graphics presented in Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034 (February 2024), www.cbo.gov/publication/59710 and The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054 (March 2024), www.cbo.gov/publication/59711.
  • 2. 1 For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/59946#_idTextAnchor018. GDP = gross domestic product. Total Deficit, Net Interest Outlays, and Primary Deficit In CBO’s projections, the total budget deficit—the amount by which outlays exceed revenues—equals 6.1 percent of GDP in 2034. Net interest payments grow in relation to GDP, reaching 3.9 percent of GDP in 2034. Primary deficits increase in 2025, decline over the next few years, and then increase again.
  • 3. 2 For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/59946#_idTextAnchor023. Federal Debt Held by the Public Federal debt held by the public increases each year in CBO’s projections, swelling to an all-time record of 116 percent of GDP in 2034. In the two decades that follow, growing deficits are projected to cause federal debt to soar to 172 percent of GDP by 2054.
  • 4. 3 For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/59946#_idTextAnchor164. Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections of the 10-Year Deficit Since May 2023 The cumulative deficit over the 2024–2033 period is $1.4 trillion smaller in CBO’s current baseline projections than it was in the agency’s May 2023 projections, mainly because of newly enacted legislation that reduced discretionary outlays.
  • 5. 4 For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/59946#_idTextAnchor095. Labor Force Since last year, CBO has increased its projection of the size of the labor force in 2033 by 5.2 million people. Most of that increase results from higher projected net immigration.
  • 6. 5 For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/60127#_idTextAnchor018. Composition of Outlays, 2024 and 2054 In CBO’s projections for 2054, net interest costs account for nearly a quarter of all federal outlays, and spending for the major health care programs accounts for two-fifths of noninterest outlays, both of which represent significant increases from 2024.
  • 7. 6 For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/60127#_idTextAnchor034. Population Growth and the Demographic Factors That Contribute to It In CBO’s projections, deaths exceed births beginning in 2040. As a result, without immigration the population would shrink thereafter.
  • 8. 7 For notes about this figure, see the online version at www.cbo.gov/publication/60127#_idTextAnchor041. Average Annual Growth of Real Potential GDP and Its Components Real potential GDP is projected to grow more slowly from 2024 to 2054 than it has, on average, over the past 30 years. That decline is explained by slower growth in the potential labor force and in potential labor force productivity.