Using future scenarios is a valuable complement to the strategy and strategic thinking process....these two presentations aim to provide a high-level overview of the approach and potential value to be gained

1. 1 Strategy Planning and Executing with Future Scenarios Improving decision making and strategic paths to creating the futurePart 1 – Introduction to Future Scenarios 1

2. Introduction 2 The purpose of this document is to show how scenarios – realistic and plausible stories about our future business environment – can be used to develop and test strategies and decisions when faced with uncertainty and ambiguity. It assumes limited knowledge of the philosophy and application of scenario planning – and therefore aims to introduce the concepts and approach. It is important to note that the real value in scenario planning, and the learning involved, comes from the strategic conversations that the process facilitates between key stakeholders and the creation and embedding of a ‘scenario thinking’ mindset. This document cannot convey the full process, the richness of information and creativity that the process facilitates – however – it is hopefully up to the task of conveying the approach, insights to be gained, and the potential for gaining foresight of how the future can evolve - and through this – enable us to develop more robust strategies and roadmaps – and anticipate and rapidly adapt as the future unfolds.

3. 3 Achieving Our Destination Requires us to Understandrapids of change Anticipate potential disruptions and critical uncertainties Develop strategies and make real-time decisions to better navigateour way towards specific goals and aspirations

4. As a leader/manager/strategistHow can you: Strengthen your ‘radar scanning’ skills Better detect those weak yet important signals on the far horizon Assess their potential significance and use this information to think, decide and act in a way that enhances your ability to reach your destination 4

5. 5 “The most important use of scenarios is to devise new insights about the future environment. From this foresight, organisations can craft more effective strategies and plans.” Learning from the future – competitive foresight scenarios : Fahey & Randall

7. It also contains a consistent account of how the world gets to that future state, from current reality

8. Scenarios always come in sets of more than one, to express the uncertainty of the future

9. Good scenarios are: They are not:

10. Plausible, > predictions

11. Internally consistent, > extrapolations

12. Relevant and challenging > best case/worst case/ ‘blue sky’

14. Help challenge assumptions and ideas about the future

15. Help refinecurrent plans and decisions – improve strategic risk management

16. Assess the implications and viability of options against the futures

17. Improve your environmental and externalradar scanning

18. Makeyou more attuned and sensitive to how the future is unfolding

19. Increase the speed at which you can react and adapt as events unfold

21. Actions we should take until unfolding events tell us to stop

22. Actions we need to have ready for a specific future

23. Actions to influence the future

24. Capabilities required for all futures

25. Directional, distinctive capabilities to create competitive advantage in longer term

26. Contingent capabilities to win in a specific future

27. Capabilities needed but have no basis for at presentAdapted from IDON Scenario methods

28. 9 If you are interested in exploring or applying this further – then feel free to contact me : david.a.carson@diageo.com +44 (0)7803855573