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Pinebridge 2019 Q4
- 3. I.
- 4. PAGE 3 MSCI ACWI S&P 500 ICE 600 MSCI MSCI 300 SENSEX MSCI BOVESPA MSCI RTSI - - - - - - Bloomberg 2019/9/3 1.4 -0.7 -1.2 0.8 9.1 0.9 22.0 8.5 13.4 28.0 1.1 12.5 11.4 14.8 15.9 -9.2 -5.4 -5.1 -3.5 -3.1 -2.7 -0.9 0.6 2.7 6.1 0.8 2.5 3.1 3.9 5.9 3 % % 9.5 10.7 10.4 6.9 7.4 11.9 10.0 13.9 9.3 10.9 8.1 10.8 9.3 8.9 1.2 4.3 3.6 3.4 1.0 4.8 3.2 5.7 3.8 3.2 1.9 6.2 4.0 4.1 - - 3 % %
- 5. PAGE 4 Bloomberg 2019/9/3 -4.8 3.6 -3.5 -6.9 -4.2 -2.5 -3.8 -4.1 -5.3 3.4 -4.3 2.9 -4.3 -2.3 -4.2 -6.8 -3.8 0.1 -3.0 -3.1 -4.6 2.0 -2.4 1.9 3 % % -6.0 20.6 8.3 18.8 -0.4 -4.0 16.7 -4.9 1.3 -3.2 LME CRB 3 % %
- 6. II.
- 7. PAGE 6 • IMF 2019 3.2% • IMF IMF 2019/7 (IMF ) 3.8% 3.6% 3.2% ( 0.1%) 3.5% ( 0.1%) 2.4% 2.2% 1.9% ( 0.1%) 1.7% 4.8% 4.5% 4.1% ( 0.3%) 4.7% ( 0.1%) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2017 2018 2019 ( ) 2020 ( )
- 8. PAGE 7 • 8 ISM PMI 49.1 3 50 • 2.6% Bloomberg 2019/9/3 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP( ) 2.3% (2019/6) 45 50 55 60 65 2016/9 2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3 PMI 49.1 (2019/8) PMI 54.7 (2019/8) -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CPI 1.8% (2019/7) CPI 2.2% (2019/7) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3.7% (2019/7)
- 9. PAGE 8 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ( ) 2.25% (2019/9/3) • 7 1 • 12 3 Bloomberg PineBridge Investments 2019/9/3 4 2020 1 1.90% 1.85%
- 10. PAGE 9 Bloomberg PineBridge Investments 2019/9/3 • • 1.2% 45 50 55 60 65 2016/9 2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3 PMI 47.0 (2019/8) PMI 53.4 (2019/8) -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP( ) 1.2% (2019/6) -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CPI 1.0% (2019/8) CPI 0.9% (2019/8) 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7.5% (2019/7)
- 11. PAGE 10 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 0.0% (2019/9/3) • 9 (TLTRO 3) • Draghi 10 Lagarde Draghi Bloomberg 2019/9/3 4 2020 1 0.0% 0.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2019/3 2019/4 2019/5 2019/6 2019/7 2019/8 ( ) 100.0% (2019/9/3)
- 12. PAGE 11 Bloomberg PineBridge Investments 2019/9/3 • / 10 2019 1.0% 46 48 50 52 54 56 2016/9 2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3 PMI 49.3 (2019/8) PMI 53.3 (2019/8) -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CPI 0.5% (2019/7) CPI 0.4% (2019/7) -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP( ) 1.2% (2019/6) 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2.2% (2019/7)
- 13. PAGE 12 -0.15% -0.10% -0.05% 0.00% 0.05% 0.10% 0.15% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -0.1% (2019/9/3) • 2 • 10 Bloomberg 2019/9/3 4 2020 1 -0.1% -0.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2019/4 2019/5 2019/6 2019/7 2019/8 2019/9 79.9% (2019/9/3)
- 14. PAGE 13 Bloomberg 2019/9/3 • • 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 CPI 3.2% (2019/6) 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 2016/9 2017/3 2017/9 2018/3 2018/9 2019/3 PMI 50.4 (2019/8) PMI 52.3 (2019/8) 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 5.0% (2019/6) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GDP( ) 4.7% (2019/6)
- 15. III.
- 16. PAGE 15 • • ( ) Bloomberg 2019/9/3 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10 1.457% (2019/9/3) 2 1.452% (2019/9/3) -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 10 -0.706% (2019/9/3) 2 -0.912% (2019/9/3)
- 17. PAGE 16 70bp 90bp 110bp 130bp 150bp 170bp 190bp 210bp 230bp 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 121bp (2019/9/3) 1181 1254 1127 1045 ( ) 900 950 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 2016 2017 2018 2019 ( 10 ) • • 5 Bloomberg 2019/9/3 J.P. Morgan 2019/7/31 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2.79% (2019/9/3)
- 18. PAGE 17 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 5.73% (2019/9/3) 200bp 300bp 400bp 500bp 600bp 700bp 800bp 900bp 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 396bp (2019/9/3) • • 5 Bloomberg 2019/9/3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/8/31 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (12 ) 2.58% (2019/8)
- 19. PAGE 18 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 5.10% (2019/9/3) 200bp 250bp 300bp 350bp 400bp 450bp 500bp 550bp 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 351bp (2019/9/3) • 5 • Bloomberg 2019/9/3 (EMBI) J.P. Morgan 2019/8/7 146 178 150 (YTD) 112 ( ) 155 0 50 100 150 200 2016 2017 2018 2019 ( 10 )
- 20. PAGE 19 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 4.82% (2019/9/3) 150bp 200bp 250bp 300bp 350bp 400bp 450bp 500bp 550bp 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 333bp (2019/9/3) • 5 • Bloomberg 2019/9/3 (CEMBI) Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/8/31 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (12 ) 0.51% (2019/8)
- 21. PAGE 20 150 bp 170 bp 190 bp 210 bp 230 bp 250 bp 270 bp 290 bp 310 bp 330 bp 350 bp 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 217bp (2019/9/3) • • Bloomberg 2019/9/3 (JACI) Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/8/31 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (12 ) 1.32% (2019/8) 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 3.71% (2019/9/3)
- 22. IV.
- 23. PAGE 22 • 2019 8.7% 12 Bloomberg 2019/9/3 500 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 500 16.9 (2019/9/3) 5
- 24. PAGE 23 • 2019 Lagarde 12 Bloomberg 2019/9/3 600 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 600 14.0 (2019/9/3) 5
- 25. PAGE 24 • 12 Bloomberg 2019/9/3 300 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 1900 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 300 12.3 (2019/9/3) 5
- 26. PAGE 25 • 12 Bloomberg 2019/9/4 MSCI -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 MSCI 18.6 (2019/9/3) 5
- 27. PAGE 26 • 3 12 Bloomberg 2019/9/3 BOVESPA -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 ( ) 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 BOVESPA 11.5 (2019/9/3) 5
- 28. PAGE 27 • Bloomberg 2019/9/3 ICE 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.8% 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 2014/12/31 2015/12/31 2016/12/31 2017/12/31 2018/12/31 5.20% (2019/9/3) 200bp 250bp 300bp 350bp 400bp 450bp 500bp 2014/12/31 2015/12/31 2016/12/31 2017/12/31 2018/12/31 367.42bp (2019/9/3)
- 29. V.
- 30. PAGE 29 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019/8/13 ‘11/6 ‘12/1 ‘13/1 ‘14/1 ‘15/1 ‘16/1 ‘17/1 ‘18/1 美銀美林基金經理人調查最大尾端風險（Tail Risk） ‘19/1
- 31. PAGE 30 Barclays 2019/9/3 2019 10 • (10/1) • (10/17-18) • IMF (10/18-20) • (10/24) • (10/27) • FOMC (10/31) • (10/30-31) • (10/31) 2019 11 • (11/7) 2019 12 • FOMC (12/12) • (12/12) • (12/12-13) • (12/18-19) • (12/19)
- 32. VI.
- 35. PAGE 34 2019/9 TR108193 PineBridge Investments IP Holding Company Limited • • • ( ) • 108 001 104 144 10 (02)2516-7883 407 386 12 8 (04)2217-8168 802 6 17 1(A5 ) (07)335-5898