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ARC Regional Snapshot-Economy Jan 2018

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regional snapshot of ARC Research and Analytics for January 2018

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ARC Regional Snapshot-Economy Jan 2018

  1. 1. January 2018 Economic Snapshot US and Atlanta Metro Economic Environment-- What’s in the Air for the Economy? What’s Being Built on the Ground? Atlanta Regional Commission, January 2018 For more information, contact: mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com
  2. 2. Key Points Metro Atlanta continues to be a national leader in job growth Wages are finally seeing positive annual growth, but growth is still sluggish Strongest employment growth found in higher-paying sectors Home prices finally above pre-recession peak Metro Atlanta still has high levels of distressed housing There are roughly five million square feet of office space and almost two million square feet of retail space currently under construction in metro Atlanta
  3. 3. The Very Big Picture: USA Job Trends 1950 to “Now” The national economy has seen seven years of job gains since the Great Recession officially ended in 2010. The recovery was not as dramatic/ rapid as that seen in previous Recessions, but has been “sustained”.
  4. 4. The Very Big Picture: National Labor Force Participation Rate Steadying After Years of Decline
  5. 5. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Metro Atlanta’s GDP Up Nearly 19 Percent Since 2010 (In millions of Chained Dollars $2009) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 GDP Change: 2010- 2016 GDP Change: 2015- 2016 New York 1,321,890 1,325,597 1,364,250 1,367,357 1,391,582 1,413,281 1,426,027 7.9% 0.9% Los Angeles 754,535 760,055 782,013 796,785 827,992 866,578 884,836 17.3% 2.1% Chicago 522,484 529,860 545,392 543,676 552,758 563,789 568,969 8.9% 0.9% Dallas 359,152 372,206 391,232 412,265 432,289 457,409 471,278 31.2% 3.0% Washington 426,285 432,811 435,149 431,879 434,050 444,442 449,293 5.4% 1.1% Houston 372,614 385,028 408,515 425,043 434,848 456,245 442,458 18.7% -3.0% San Francisco 321,982 321,282 337,958 350,660 367,608 385,619 406,294 26.2% 5.4% Philadelphia 344,835 346,289 352,056 363,869 366,687 375,200 381,332 10.6% 1.6% Boston 325,698 332,700 340,681 342,706 350,209 364,136 371,577 14.1% 2.0% Atlanta 269,939 274,621 278,537 288,509 299,881 308,761 320,171 18.6% 3.7% Seattle 240,771 245,216 256,930 264,336 273,702 281,373 293,551 21.9% 4.3% Miami 247,557 247,940 254,161 251,037 267,639 280,390 287,775 16.2% 2.6% San Jose 161,534 172,532 178,834 188,663 202,592 223,759 236,855 46.6% 5.9% Detroit 196,263 203,896 208,204 209,372 213,402 219,200 223,835 14.0% 2.1% Minneapolis 195,810 201,598 202,891 206,171 212,880 215,881 217,566 11.1% 0.8% Phoenix 178,640 182,413 187,477 188,076 193,190 198,049 203,253 13.8% 2.6% San Diego 173,446 179,174 181,381 186,894 189,206 189,998 190,656 9.9% 0.3% Denver 151,224 153,031 157,916 159,987 169,519 176,148 180,446 19.3% 2.4% Baltimore 150,990 154,141 155,582 156,911 158,780 160,687 164,545 9.0% 2.4% Portland 141,374 148,621 142,586 138,916 141,338 147,412 151,817 7.4% 3.0%
  6. 6. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours Year-over-year, metro Atlanta’s employment growth rate has been stronger than that of the nation’s for the last five years. Note, however, that the growth rate has slowed since the middle of 2017. Metro Atlanta Outperforming Nation Last 5 Years -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Total Employment ATL US
  7. 7. 4.4% 3.8% 5.0% 4.7% 4.1% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 4.5% 3.6% 2.8% 8.0% 5.7% 8.6% 8.4% 5.9% 7.1% 5.9% 4.7% 6.6% 7.1% 6.4% 5.4% 4.2% 3.0% 4.2% 4.7% 3.2% 2.8% 4.3% 2.4% 3.7% 2.6% 4.1% 3.6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Atlanta Boston Charlotte Chicago Dallas Denver Houston Minneapolis Phoenix San Francisco Seattle Washington, D.C. UnemploymentRate Unemployment 2007 Nov 2012 Nov 2017 Nov Unemployment Rates Low Everywhere in Peer Metros- Relatively High for Metro Atlanta Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  8. 8. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours Metro Atlanta #2 in job growth, year-over-year 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.2 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Dallas Atlanta Boston Phoenix Washington Philadelphia San Francisco U.S. New York Los Angeles Miami Houston Chicago Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Nonfarm Employment September 2016 – September 2017 Metro Atlanta ranks second among the 12 largest metro areas in year- over- year job growth for the September 2016 to September 2017 period.
  9. 9. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours Metro Atlanta Strong in Higher-Paying Sectors In metro Atlanta, year-over-year September 2016 to September 2017, the Professional/Business Services and Information sectors experienced the strongest growth, significantly outpacing national growth in these sectors. 2.5 6.2 2.6 2.6 1.1 3 4.2 1.1 1.9 1.2 -0.7 1.2 2.6 2.1 1.2 0.3 1.8 -2.8 0.2 0.9 2.5 1 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Employment, By Super Sector September 2016- September 2017 Metro ATL U.S.
  10. 10. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours A Look at Sector-by-Sector Employment Growth (not seasonally adjusted) While both Construction and Manufacturing employment rebounded from the Great Recession, both sectors struggled in the second half of 2017, with employment declining in the Manufacturing sector. -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Construction -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Manufacturing
  11. 11. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours Growth in the Wholesale Trade has been strongly positive for about four years, while employment in the retail sector has trended down since late 2014, and declined late in 2017. -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Wholesale Trade -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Retail A Look at Sector-by-Sector Employment Growth (not seasonally adjusted)
  12. 12. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours The Information and Finance sectors, two sectors that have relatively high overall wages, have experienced strong growth since the great recession, consistently adding jobs over the time period. -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Information -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Finance A Look at Sector-by-Sector Employment Growth (not seasonally adjusted)
  13. 13. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours Like the Information and Finance Sectors, employment growth in the Professional/Business sector has been positive each month since February of 2010. Employment growth in Education/Health have also remained steadily positive. -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Professional/Business -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Education/Health A Look at Sector-by-Sector Employment Growth (not seasonally adjusted)
  14. 14. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Employment, Earnings, and Hours Employment growth in the Leisure/Hospitality sector has been strong as well, although it experienced significant dips since fall of 2016. -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Leisure A Look at Sector-by-Sector Employment Growth (not seasonally adjusted)
  15. 15. Jobs Earnings Falling Behind in Metro Atlanta Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; (CPI from Bureau of Labor Statistics) $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Earnings per Job ($2016) U.S. Metro Average Metro Atlanta Average While the average earnings per job in metro Atlanta still lags the nation, local earnings have accelerated during the last couple of years, narrowing the gap with the nation.
  16. 16. $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000 Earnings per Job – Metro Atlanta ($2016) Jobs Earnings the Same Today As in 1998 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; (CPI from Bureau of Labor Statistics) Still, on an inflation-adjusted basis, job earnings today are roughly the same as they were in 1998.
  17. 17. Average Hourly Wage by Selected Occupation Occupation Atlanta Area United States Total, All Occupations $24.38 $23.86 Financial Managers 71.48 67.17 General/Operations Managers 59.90 58.70 Computer Systems Analysts 45.89 44.05 Management Analysts 45.65 44.19 Accountants/Auditors 38.02 36.89 Registered Nurses 32.63 34.70 Customer Service Reps 17.46 16.91 Construction Laborers 17.00 18.22 Retail Salespersons 12.25 13.07 Cashiers 9.63 10.43 Waiters/Waitresses 9.25 11.73 Cooks, Fast Food 8.99 9.89 Overall, the average pay in metro Atlanta is higher. But in exploring wages by selected occupations, wages for lower-wage occupations pay less in metro Atlanta than they do in the nation as a whole.
  18. 18. Home Prices Exceed Pre-Recession Peak Sources: Case-Shiller Home Price Index Home prices in metro Atlanta are higher today than during they were at the pre-recession peak; they have been for the last four months (per Case-Shiller). Home prices in Atlanta are still lower than the 20 largest city composite prices, however. 50.00 70.00 90.00 110.00 130.00 150.00 170.00 190.00 210.00 230.00 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Case-Shiller Home Price Index ATL 20 City Composite
  19. 19. Still Struggles With Housing Costs, Though Sources: Zillow While home prices have finally eclipsed their pre-recession peak, Atlanta ranks fourth out of the 20 largest markets in the percentage of homes that have negative equity (owners owe more than what the house is worth) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% % of Homes, with mortgage, with Negative Equity
  20. 20. Total Residential Units Authorized by Building Permit Sources: State Of the Cities Database; ARC R&A - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Metro Atlanta Residential Units Permitted, 2003 - Current Switching to the housing market –the number of units permitted are still significantly lower when compared to pre-recession levels.
  21. 21. Sources: State Of the Cities Database; ARC R&A Total Residential Units Authorized by Building Permit, by Jurisdiction 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 ATLANTA Cherokee County Clayton County Cobb County DeKalb County Douglas County Fayette County Fulton County (minus ATL) Gwinnett County Henry County Rockdale County Number of Residential Units Permitted, 2017 (Through November) Multi-Family Units Single-Family Units
  22. 22. Landscape of Multifamily Activity—Atlanta Focus Sources: CoStar Database; ARC R&A Properties (46) of 200 Units+ Under Construction as of 1/18 Properties (65) of 200 Units+ Proposed as of 1/18
  23. 23. The Nation –Office Space Over Time (Net New Space and Rent Changes) Sources: CoStar; ARC R&A MillionsofNetNew SquareFeet $ChangeinAverageRent PerSquareFoot 116.8 89.8 42.0 22.4 19.9 28.9 35.0 53.6 29.0 53.0 -$2.00 -$1.50 -$1.00 -$0.50 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 Net New Square Feet Built Annual Change in Ave Rent ($) PSF Nationally, little new office space has been added in recent years, which is a result of the overbuilding of the sector prior to and during early part of the recession, and minimal (or negative) rent growth.
  24. 24. Atlanta & Peer MSAs- Current Office Conditions 2017 (3Q) Sources: CoStar; ARC R&A MillionsofSquareFeetUnder Construction VacancyRateortheMarket 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Washington Dallas/Ft Worth San Francisco Denver Seattle/Puget S. Atlanta Chicago Boston Houston Charlotte Phoenix Minneapolis Square Feet Under Construction Vacancy Rate A little more than five million square feet of office space is currently under construction in metro Atlanta with an 11.9 percent vacancy rate. Both of these values rank metro Atlanta in the middle of the pack of these peer metros.
  25. 25. Landscape of Office Activity—Atlanta Focus Source: CoStar Database; ARC R&A Properties (25) of 100K+ SF Under Construction as of 1/18 Properties (94) of 100K+ SF Proposed as of 1/18
  26. 26. Retail Over Time (Net New Space and Rent Changes)—The Nation Sources: CoStar; ARC R&A 193.8 101.6 48.8 42.2 42.5 42.5 49.4 57.9 33.1 55.0 (1.50) (1.00) (0.50) 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 0 50 100 150 200 250 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 Net New Square Feet Built Annual Change in Ave Rent ($) PSF MillionsofNetNew SquareFeet $ChangeinAverageRent PerSquareFoot Nationally, and similar to new office space built, new retail construction has lagged in recent years, with a bump-up last year. After years of negative or flat rent growth, average rents increased between 2016 and 2017.
  27. 27. Current Retail Conditions 3q2017—Atlanta & Peer MSAs Sources: CoStar; ARC R&A 5.36 3.94 2.77 2.39 2.32 2.01 1.87 1.48 1.41 0.74 0.68 0.11 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Dallas/Ft Worth Houston Chicago Boston Washington Denver Atlanta Charlotte Phoenix Seattle/Puget S. Minneapolis San Francisco Square Feet Under Construction Vacancy Rate MillionsofSquareFeetUnder Construction VacancyRateortheMarket Across metro Atlanta, a little less than two million square feet of retail space is currently under construction with an 5.6 percent vacancy rate. Both of these values rank metro Atlanta in the middle of the pack of peer metros.
  28. 28. Landscape of Retail Activity—Atlanta Focus Sources: CoStar Database; ARC R&A Properties (15) of 25K+ SF Under Construction as of 1/18 Properties (17) of 100K+ SF Proposed as of 1/18

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